Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 31, 2025, 15:15 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. As of 16:00 UTC (Mar 31, UGS), 109 combat clashes occurred since the start of the day. The Pokrovsk Direction experiences the highest intensity (36 attacks). Significant combat activity persists on the Lyman (14 attacks), Toretsk (10 attacks), Kursk/Belgorod border (14 attacks repelled/ongoing), Huliaipole (8 attacks), Orikhiv (7 attacks), Novopavlivsk (6 attacks), and Kupyansk (4 attacks) directions. Multiple clashes remain ongoing across several sectors. Russian sources note continuous combat across the entire front, claiming daily improvements to their positions.
Russian Main Efforts: The primary offensive axis continues towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure is maintained towards Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Chasiv Yar, the South Donetsk (Vremivka salient) area, and the Orikhiv direction (Zaporizhzhia). Efforts persist to consolidate control and advance within the Kursk border area. Multi-axis advances continue in Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces reportedly attempt to exploit adverse weather conditions for ground assaults. Russian sources (Basurin) claim advances are approaching the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border southwest of Pokrovsk (2-3km away).
Russian Force Generation & Morale:
President Putin signed the decree for the regular Spring 2025 conscription campaign (April 1 - July 15), aiming to draft 160,000 citizens aged 18-30. This is reported by Russian sources as the highest target in a decade. Dispatch to units begins April 10.
Russian MoD and officials reiterate this campaign is unrelated to the Special Military Operation (SVO) and conscripts will not be sent to occupied territories or SVO zones.
Electronic summons via Gosuslugi (and Mos.ru in Moscow) will supplement paper summons; travel restrictions apply upon issuance.
Reports from captured Russian soldiers (Pokrovsk direction, 15th OMSB; Chasiv Yar front) suggest significant morale issues, high attrition, inadequate training, logistical deficiencies, poor treatment by commanders, and potential manipulation of casualty figures (allegedly listing KIA as MIA to avoid compensation payments). Recruitment of convicts for assault units is reported, particularly near Chasiv Yar, suggesting manpower challenges.
Ukrainian Defensive Posture & Developments:
Forces maintain defensive lines, repelling numerous assaults and containing Russian advances across multiple directions (UGS, Mar 31 16:00 UTC). Stabilization efforts reported partially successful on the Pokrovsk direction (Syrskyi, Mar 31), though intense fighting continues.
Active defense and counter-actions continue within Russian border territory (Kursk/Belgorod Oblasts). Ukrainian forces repelled 9 Russian attacks in Kursk Oblast since the start of the day, with 5 clashes ongoing (UGS, 16:00 UTC). UA Air Force conducted strikes in Belgorod Oblast (Demidovka, Kondrativka area).
Training & Personnel: Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reported a reduction in Ukrainian losses during March. Mortar crews (OUV Tavria) observed training. The 10th Mountain Assault Brigade "Edelweiss" is actively training new recruits. Support events for wounded personnel highlight focus on soldier care. Meetings continue with families regarding POW/MIA status; IT camps organized for children of defenders.
Counter-Intelligence/Internal: A Kharkiv resident was sentenced to 15 years for treason.
Civilian Resilience: Offline education resumed in Zaporizhzhia underground school. Funding secured for rebuilding Kharkiv Oblast medical complex. Medical infrastructure development ongoing in Kryvyi Rih (Hospital #3 repairs, new equipment, shelters, rehab beds). Moscow authorities reportedly preparing basement shelters (RU opposition source). President Zelenskyy, speaking at the Bucha Summit, emphasized Russian atrocities and the need for accountability.
Potential Future Operations:
RU CLAIM (UA Offensive Prep): Russian sources continue to claim observation of new Ukrainian tactical markings (OTGs Luhansk, Donetsk, Starobelsk, Kharkiv), interpreting this as potential preparation for a counter-attack, possibly near Chasiv Yar or elsewhere.
UA Assessment (Potential RU Offensive): Ukrainian analysis suggests Russia may be preparing a new offensive to improve negotiating positions, potentially targeting Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, but likely not on the scale suggested by some Western media.
International Support & Diplomacy:
Military Aid: Netherlands pledged €500M for drones (Mar 31). Sweden announced record €1.6B aid package (Mar 31).
Financial Aid: Ukraine received ~$400M IMF tranche (Mar 31).
Political Support: European Parliamentarians visit Kyiv (Mar 31).
Regional Tensions: Moldova declared 3 Russian embassy staff persona non grata after alleging Russia helped a convicted MP escape to Transnistria via the embassy (Mar 31). Russia vows response.
Economic Indicators: Ukrainian bond prices have fallen significantly, reflecting investor concerns about the conflict's duration and potential outcomes (Reuters).
Diplomacy/Politics: Kremlin states Putin remains open to contact with former US President Trump despite Trump's critical remarks. Slovak PM Fico's comments suggest potential internal EU tensions regarding US relations/policy. US-UA meeting held on rare earth minerals. RU-Iran treaty ratification planned for April. Turkey-Central Asia influence concerns noted by Russian analysts.
Information Environment: Challenges reported for independent Russian media outlets (e.g., Mediazona facing financial difficulties), potentially impacting access to non-state narratives within Russia.
Energy Situation: Threat to Ukrainian energy infrastructure remains high. Shelling reported near Enerhodar (RU source, Mar 31).
II. Territorial Changes & Control
Kursk Oblast:
Russian MoD confirmed capture of Hoholivka (Mar 31). Russian sources claim control of half of Huyevo, fighting ongoing. Claims persist regarding Sudzha town being "liberated" (unverified). Control claimed over northern Uspenivka (Mar 30). Ukrainian forces reportedly hold Oleshnia and Gornal (RU source claim, Mar 31). Russian Investigative Committee shown operating in Sudzha.
Pokrovsk Direction (Donetsk):
Russian MoD confirmed liberation of Zaporizhzhia settlement (Mar 31).
Russian sources claim approaching Novooleksandrivka and advances near Kotlyarivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka (Mar 31), tactical gains south of Pokrovsk (Mar 30), and fighting near Bohdanivka towards Troitske (Mar 31). RU claims advances bring forces within 2-3km of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border SW of Pokrovsk. RU claims repelled UA mechanized attack near Lysivka with FPV drones. Captured RU soldier (15th OMSB) reports significant issues on this front.
Toretsk Direction (Donetsk):
Ukrainian Confirmation: Russian advance near Panteleimonivka (Mar 30).
Russian sources claim reaching outskirts of Valentynivka and fighting for Tarasivka. Claim full control of Panteleimonivka village (Mar 31).
Lyman Direction:
Ukrainian Confirmation: Russian advance near Novoie (Mar 30).
Russian source claims front reported approaching Krasnyi Lyman again (Mar 31). Claims advances near Makiivka/Novoliubivka, fighting for Katerynivka (Mar 30).
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Direction (Donetsk / Vremivka Salient):
Ukrainian Confirmation: Russian advance in Rozlyv (Mar 30).
RU CLAIM (Significant - Mar 31): RU Group "Vostok" units control over 50% to 2/3 of Rozlyv, advancing and consolidating. Claim breaking UA defenses near Veseloye. Claim establishing fire control over the Bogatyr-Konstantinopol logistics node. Claim pushing UA forces from positions between Konstantynopil and Bogatyr. Allege heavy UA losses and degraded supply/rotation capability due to sustained RU fire pressure. Intense RU artillery, drone, and air strikes reported. Ongoing strikes towards Otradne and Komar targeting UA rear reserves. RU analysts discuss post-Rozlyv offensive options.
Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar):
Intense fighting continues. RU VDV (98th Division) involved. RU soldier testimony confirms heavy fighting, high attrition, and stalemate dynamics.
Kupyansk Direction (Kharkiv):
Russian claims advances near Kondrashivka, capture of Krasne Pershe (Mar 29/30), expansion W of Oskil (contradicted by UA bridge destruction), and expansion of bridgeheads N of Kupyansk (Mar 31).
Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian pontoon bridge attempt (TMM bridge) over the Oskil River near Dvorichna (Mar 31).
Orikhiv / Zaporizhzhia Direction:
RU CLAIM (Significant Offensive Actions - Mar 31): RU forces continue offensive. Claim expanding zone of control N and E from Shcherbaky / Mali Shcherbaky despite UA counterattacks. Claim VDV expanding control N, W, S from Stepove towards Lobkove. Claim RU assault units entered Lobkove from S, advanced N, expanded control E. Claim most of Lobkove under RU control. Acknowledge dynamic situation, difficult fighting. RU artillery and drone strikes (1198 MRR, 38 GMRB) reported destroying UA targets in the Polohy area.
Air threat alerts active for Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Mar 31, ~14:50 UTC).
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson):
Positional fighting continues. Ukrainian forces (123rd TD Bde) report ongoing operations and successful strikes against RU positions on the coast/islands.
Sumy Border:
Russian claimed capture of Veselovka (Mar 29, unverified). RU sources claim ongoing "liberation" in Basivka (Sumy) (Mar 31, unverified). Ukrainian forces destroyed a RU Zala recon UAV over Sumy Oblast (Mar 31).
III. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Russian Strike Campaign (Past ~24-72h & Ongoing):
Missiles:2 Iskander-M launched towards Sumy (reportedly NOT intercepted, Mar 31). Ballistic missile strike on Shostka (Sumy) (Mar 30 night).
UAVs:57/131 Shaheds destroyed overnight Mar 30/31. Impacts reported in Sumy, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr Oblasts. Kharkiv City impact: 6 UAVs attacked, 5 impacts, 3 civilians injured, significant fires/damage to civilian enterprise and residential buildings. Russia employed 2,620 kamikaze drones (UGS, 24h to 06:00 UTC Mar 31).
Air Bases (RU CLAIM): Strike claimed against Ozerne airfield (Zhytomyr Oblast), reportedly destroying MiG-29 maintenance hangars, damaging C2 point, disrupting comms/nav, and destroying airfield vehicles (Mar 31).
Aviation/KABs:
Kupyansk Attack (Mar 31 afternoon): Kharkiv OVA reports massive KAB attack on Kupyansk city (7 KABs). 1 private house destroyed, 1 damaged. 3 civilians wounded.
Air Threat Alert (Mar 31 ~14:50 UTC): Threat of air attack announced for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Earlier alerts active for Southern, Eastern, NE axes.
Past 24h (UGS report): RU conducted 116 air strikes using 223 KABs against Ukrainian territory, plus 20 air strikes (31 KABs) in the Kursk operational zone.
Ukrainian Strikes & Air Activity:
Ukrainian aviation, missile troops, and artillery hit 14 Russian concentration areas (personnel/equipment) and 1 command post (UGS, past 24h).
Confirmed Strikes: UA Air Force strikes in Belgorod Oblast (Demidovka, Kondrativka area) reported (DeepState, Mar 31). UA forces destroyed RU **TMM pontoon bridge attempt near D
