Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 31, 2025, 14:45 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. As of 16:00 UTC (Mar 31, UGS), 109 combat clashes occurred since the start of the day. The Pokrovsk Direction experiences the highest intensity (36 attacks). Significant combat activity persists on the Lyman (14 attacks), Toretsk (10 attacks), Kursk/Belgorod border (14 attacks repelled/ongoing), Huliaipole (8 attacks), Orikhiv (7 attacks), Novopavlivsk (6 attacks), and Kupyansk (4 attacks) directions. Multiple clashes remain ongoing across several sectors. Russian sources note continuous combat across the entire front, claiming daily improvements to their positions.
Russian Main Efforts: The primary offensive axis continues towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure is maintained towards Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Chasiv Yar, the South Donetsk (Vremivka salient) area, and the Orikhiv direction (Zaporizhzhia). Efforts persist to consolidate control and advance within the Kursk border area. Multi-axis advances continue in Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces reportedly attempt to exploit adverse weather conditions for ground assaults. Russian sources (Basurin) claim advances are approaching the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border southwest of Pokrovsk (2-3km away).
Russian Force Generation:
President Putin signed the decree for the regular Spring 2025 conscription campaign (April 1 - July 15), aiming to draft 160,000 citizens aged 18-30. This is reported by Russian sources as the highest target in a decade. Dispatch to units begins April 10.
Russian MoD and officials (Kartapolov, Tsilyansky) reiterate this campaign is unrelated to the Special Military Operation (SVO) and conscripts will not be sent to occupied territories in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, or Kherson Oblasts, nor to SVO zones generally.
Electronic summons via Gosuslugi (and Mos.ru in Moscow) will supplement paper summons. Travel restrictions apply upon summons issuance. A hotline for inquiries will open April 10.
Ukrainian Defensive Posture & Developments:
Forces maintain defensive lines, repelling numerous assaults and containing Russian advances across multiple directions (UGS, Mar 31 16:00 UTC). Stabilization efforts reported partially successful on the Pokrovsk direction (Syrskyi, Mar 31), though intense fighting continues. Russian sources (Basurin) claim high daily Ukrainian losses (>1050 KIA/24h - Unverified RU MoD Claim).
Active defense and counter-actions continue within Russian border territory (Kursk/Belgorod Oblasts). Ukrainian forces repelled 9 Russian attacks in Kursk Oblast since the start of the day, with 5 clashes ongoing (UGS, 16:00 UTC). President Zelenskyy previously confirmed (Mar 29) active Ukrainian operations on Russian territory hinder potential Russian offensives towards Sumy/Kharkiv. UA Air Force conducted strikes in Belgorod Oblast (Demidovka, Kondrativka area). Russian sources (WarGonzo) claim UA is shifting forces from Kursk to Belgorod (Demidovka area).
Training & Personnel: Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reported a reduction in Ukrainian losses during March. Mortar crews (OUV Tavria) observed training. The 10th Mountain Assault Brigade "Edelweiss" is actively training new recruits under the "Contract 18-24" project. Support events for wounded personnel (e.g., wheelchair basketball competition registration opened) highlight focus on soldier care and morale. Meetings continue with families regarding POW/MIA status; IT camps organized for children of defenders.
Counter-Intelligence/Internal: A Kharkiv resident was sentenced to 15 years for treason (passing UA troop locations to Russia). An internal investigation is reportedly underway regarding alleged fraud involving benefits for a missing soldier.
Civilian Resilience: Offline education resumed in a repaired underground school shelter (capacity 350) in Zaporizhzhia ("ELINT"). Funding secured via the Olena Zelenska Foundation and Qatar Fund for Development for rebuilding a major medical complex in Kharkiv Oblast. Zaporizhzhia OVA highlights March events including security center opening, vocational training hubs. Moscow authorities reportedly preparing basement shelters (RU opposition source). President Zelenskyy, speaking at the Bucha Summit, emphasized Russian atrocities and the need for accountability.
Alleged Ukrainian Offensive Preparations (RU CLAIM): Russian sources (Rybar, Colonelcassad) continue to claim observation of new Ukrainian tactical markings on vehicles (specifically mentioning markings for OTGs Luhansk, Donetsk, Starobelsk, Kharkiv), interpreting this as potential preparation for a counter-attack, possibly near Chasiv Yar or elsewhere in Donetsk Oblast.
Potential Future Russian Offensive Assessment: Ukrainian analysis (RBC-Ukraina) suggests Russia may be preparing a new offensive to improve negotiating positions, with potential attacks in Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, but likely not on the scale suggested by some Western media.
International Support & Diplomacy:
Netherlands: Pledged €500M for Ukrainian drone development (part of €2B aid for 2025) (Mar 31).
Sweden: Announced record €1.6B aid package (Mar 31).
IMF: Ukraine received ~$400M tranche after 7th EFF program review (PM Shmyhal, Mar 31). Total IMF support under EFF now >$10B.
European Parliamentarians Visit Kyiv: Speakers/Vice-speakers from Belgium, UK, Denmark, Estonia, Iceland, Spain, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovenia, Finland, Croatia, Czech Republic, Sweden, Estonia, plus EP representatives arrived in Kyiv (Mar 31).
Moldova-Russia Tensions: Moldova declared 3 Russian embassy staff persona non grata, including the Russian co-chair for Transnistria peacekeeping management (confirmed Mar 31). Moldova's SIB Head (Musteață) stated Russia helped convicted MP A. Nesterovsky escape custody to Transnistria via the embassy, calling it part of hybrid aggression. This follows Moldova's draft military strategy identifying Russia as a primary threat. Russia has vowed a response and rejected Moldova's accusations.
US-Russia/Ukraine: Russian sources (Peskov via Dnevnik Desantnika) acknowledge statements about former US President Trump being "angry" with President Putin regarding proposals for UN external management of Ukraine. Peskov states RU continues working to restore relations damaged by Biden admin and on Ukrainian settlement; contact between Putin and Trump remains open.
US-Ukraine: Technical online meeting held regarding potential agreement on rare earth minerals (RBC-Ukraina source).
Russia-Iran: Russian Duma plans to consider ratification of Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty with Iran in April (Volodin).
Turkey-Central Asia: Russian analysts (Rybar) express concern over Turkish efforts to increase influence in Central Asia via the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), potentially establishing control over think tanks and electoral bodies, weakening Russian positions.
Energy Situation: Threat to Ukrainian energy infrastructure remains high. Shelling reported in Enerhodar (RU source, Mar 31). Russian MoD continues to claim ongoing Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.
II. Territorial Changes & Control (Recent - Primarily RU Claims unless specified)
Kursk Oblast:
Russian MoD confirmed capture of Hoholivka (Mar 31), claimed cleared by Airborne troops, supported by video.
Russian sources claim control of half of Huyevo (Mar 31), fighting ongoing. Claims persist regarding Sudzha town being "liberated" (Mar 30 - Unverified, RU Investigative Committee shown operating there Mar 31). Control claimed over northern Uspenivka (Mar 30). RU sources (WarGonzo) claim only 3 settlements remain under UA control in Kursk Oblast incursions. RU MoD reports mine clearance ongoing near Sudzhansky District.
Ukrainian forces reportedly hold Oleshnia and Gornal (RU source claim, Mar 31).
Pokrovsk Direction (Donetsk):
Russian MoD confirmed liberation of Zaporizhzhia settlement (Mar 31).
Russian sources claim approaching Novooleksandrivka and advances near Kotlyarivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka (Mar 31), tactical gains south of Pokrovsk (Mar 30), and fighting near Bohdanivka towards Troitske (Mar 31). Russian sources (Basurin) claim advances bring RU forces within 2-3km of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border SW of Pokrovsk. RU claims repelled UA mechanized attack near Lysivka with FPV drones.
Toretsk Direction (Donetsk):
Ukrainian Confirmation: Russian advance near Panteleimonivka (Mar 30).
Russian sources claim reaching outskirts of Valentynivka and fighting for Tarasivka. Claim full control of Panteleimonivka village (Mar 31). Russian MoD previously claimed Panteleimonivka captured (Mar 29).
Lyman Direction:
Ukrainian Confirmation: Russian advance near Novoie (Mar 30).
Russian source claims front reported approaching Krasnyi Lyman again (Mar 31). Claims advances near Makiivka/Novoliubivka, fighting for Katerynivka (Mar 30).
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Direction (Donetsk / Vremivka Salient):
Ukrainian Confirmation: Russian advance in Rozlyv (Mar 30).
RU CLAIM (Significant - Voin DV, Kotenok, Colonelcassad, Mar 31): RU Group "Vostok" units control over 50% to 2/3 of Rozlyv, advancing and consolidating positions. Claim breaking UA defenses near Veseloye. Claim establishing fire control over the Bogatyr-Konstantinopol logistics node. Claim pushing UA forces from positions between Konstantynopil and Bogatyr. Allege heavy UA losses and degraded supply/rotation capability on the Vremivka salient due to sustained RU fire pressure. Claim destruction of UA groups and equipment. Intense RU artillery, drone, and air strikes reported. Ongoing strikes towards Otradne and Komar targeting UA rear reserves. RU analysts discuss post-Rozlyv offensive options (H-15 vs T-04-28).
Previous Russian claims entering/liberating parts of Rozlyv, liberating Preobrazhenka, fighting for Bohdanivka/Troitske, advances near Kotlyarivka & Novoselka. Clearing territory West of Rozovka (Alexandropol) claimed (Mar 31).
Kupyansk Direction (Kharkiv):
Russian claims advances near Kondrashivka, capture of Krasne Pershe (Mar 29/30), expansion W of Oskil towards Doroshovka/Zapadne (Mar 30 - Contradicted by UA bridge destruction), and expansion of bridgeheads N of Kupyansk (Mar 31).
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia):
RU CLAIM (Significant Offensive Actions - Dnevnik Desantnika/Dva Mayora, Mar 31): RU forces continue offensive. Claim expanding zone of control N and E from Shcherbaky / Mali Shcherbaky despite UA counterattacks. Claim VDV expanding control N, W, S from Stepove towards Lobkove, repelling UA DRG/counterattacks. Claim RU assault units entered Lobkove from S, advanced N, expanded control E. Claim VDV expanding control SW from Stepove towards Lobkove. Claim most of Lobkove under RU control. Acknowledge dynamic situation, difficult fighting.
Russian MoD previously claimed liberation of Shcherbaky (Mar 29/30). Claims fighting near Shcherbaky and inside Lobkove (Mar 29/31).
ISW confirmed Russian advances north of Zherebyanky (Mar 29).
Sumy Border:
Russian claimed capture of Veselovka (Mar 29, requires verification). RU sources claim ongoing "liberation" in Basivka (Sumy) (Mar 31, Unverified).
Missiles:2 Iskander-M launched towards Sumy (reportedly NOT intercepted, Mar 31). Ballistic missile strike on Shostka (Sumy) (Mar 30 night). RU claims Iskander strike on NGU in Ivot (Sumy). Massive strike (Night Mar 28/29): 172 Shahed/imitators launched, 94 intercepted.
UAVs:57/131 Shaheds destroyed overnight Mar 30/31. Impacts Sumy, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr Oblasts. Kharkiv City impact: 6 UAVs attacked, 5 impacts, 3 civilians injured, significant fires/damage. Russia employed 2,620 kamikaze drones (UGS, 24h to 06:00 UTC Mar 31).
Aviation/KABs:
Kupyansk Attack (NEW, Mar 31 afternoon): Kharkiv OVA reports massive KAB attack on Kupyansk city (7 KABs). 1 private house destroyed, 1 damaged. 3 civilians wounded (59M, 74F, 53F).
Air Threat Alert (Mar 31 14:02-14:12 UTC): UA Air Force reported RU tactical aviation activity on Southern axis, threat of air strikes. KAB launch towards Kherson reported (14:07 UTC). Aviation reportedly departed without repeat launches (14:12 UTC).
Earlier alerts for Eastern axis (13:12 UTC), NE axis (12:25 UTC), Kharkiv Oblast (12:34 UTC).
