Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 31, 2025, 13:45 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. As of 16:00 UTC (Mar 31, UGS), 109 combat clashes occurred since the start of the day. The Pokrovsk Direction experiences the highest intensity (36 attacks). Significant combat activity persists on the Lyman (14 attacks), Toretsk (10 attacks), Kursk/Belgorod border (14 attacks repelled/ongoing), Huliaipole (8 attacks), Orikhiv (7 attacks), Novopavlivsk (6 attacks), and Kupyansk (4 attacks) directions. Multiple clashes remain ongoing across several sectors. Russian sources note continuous combat across the entire front.
Russian Main Efforts: The primary offensive axis continues towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure is maintained towards Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Chasiv Yar, and the South Donetsk (Vremivka salient) area. Efforts persist to consolidate control and advance within the Kursk border area. Multi-axis advances continue in Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces reportedly attempt to exploit adverse weather conditions for ground assaults.
Russian Force Generation:
President Putin signed the decree for the regular Spring 2025 conscription campaign (April 1 - July 15), aiming to draft 160,000 citizens aged 18-30. This is reported by Russian sources as the highest target in a decade.
Russian MoD and officials state this campaign is unrelated to the Special Military Operation (SVO) and conscripts will not be sent to occupied territories in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, or Kherson Oblasts. Electronic summons and travel restrictions upon summons are being implemented.
Ukrainian Defensive Posture & Developments:
Forces maintain defensive lines, repelling numerous assaults and containing Russian advances across multiple directions (UGS, Mar 31 16:00 UTC). Stabilization efforts reported partially successful on the Pokrovsk direction (Syrskyi, Mar 31), though intense fighting continues.
Active defense and counter-actions continue within Russian border territory (Kursk/Belgorod Oblasts). Ukrainian forces repelled 9 Russian attacks in Kursk Oblast since the start of the day, with 5 clashes ongoing (UGS, 16:00 UTC). President Zelenskyy previously confirmed (Mar 29) active Ukrainian operations on Russian territory hinder potential Russian offensives towards Sumy/Kharkiv.
Training & Personnel: Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reported a reduction in Ukrainian losses during March. The 10th Mountain Assault Brigade "Edelweiss" is actively training new recruits under the "Contract 18-24" project. Support events for wounded personnel highlight focus on soldier care and morale. Meetings continue with families regarding POW/MIA status.
Counter-Intelligence: A Kharkiv resident was sentenced to 15 years for treason (passing UA troop locations to Russia). An internal investigation is reportedly underway regarding alleged fraud involving benefits for a missing soldier.
Civilian Resilience: Offline education resumed in a repaired school shelter (capacity 350) in Zaporizhzhia. Funding secured via the Olena Zelenska Foundation and Qatar Fund for Development for rebuilding a major medical complex in Kharkiv Oblast.
Alleged Ukrainian Offensive Preparations (RU CLAIM): Russian sources (Rybar, Colonelcassad) continue to claim observation of new Ukrainian tactical markings on vehicles (specifically mentioning markings for OTGs Luhansk, Donetsk, Starobelsk, Kharkiv), interpreting this as potential preparation for a counter-attack, possibly near Chasiv Yar or elsewhere in Donetsk Oblast.
International Support & Diplomacy:
Netherlands: Pledged €500M for Ukrainian drone development (part of €2B aid for 2025) (Mar 31).
Sweden: Announced record €1.6B aid package (Mar 31). (Note: Amount confirmed as €1.6B, equivalent to approx. $1.7B USD).
Moldova-Russia Tensions: Moldova declared 3 Russian embassy staff persona non grata, including the Russian co-chair for Transnistria peacekeeping management. This follows Moldova's draft military strategy identifying Russia as a primary threat. Russia has vowed a response.
US-Ukraine Talks: Ongoing work on updated agreement concerning mineral resources (Mar 31).
Energy Situation: Threat to Ukrainian energy infrastructure remains high. Shelling reported in Enerhodar (RU source). Russian MoD continues to claim ongoing Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.
II. Territorial Changes & Control (Recent - Primarily RU Claims unless specified)
Kursk Oblast:
Russian MoD confirmed capture of Hoholivka (Mar 31), claimed cleared by Airborne troops, supported by video.
Russian sources claim control of half of Huyevo (Mar 31), fighting ongoing. Claims persist regarding Sudzha town being "liberated" (Mar 30 - Unverified). Control claimed over northern Uspenivka (Mar 30).
Ukrainian forces reportedly hold Oleshnia and Gornal (RU source claim, Mar 31).
Pokrovsk Direction (Donetsk):
Russian MoD confirmed liberation of Zaporizhzhia settlement (Mar 31).
Russian sources claim approaching Novooleksandrivka and advances near Kotlyarivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka (Mar 31), tactical gains south of Pokrovsk (Mar 30), and fighting near Bohdanivka towards Troitske (Mar 31).
Toretsk Direction (Donetsk):
Ukrainian Confirmation: Russian advance near Panteleimonivka (Mar 30).
Russian sources claim reaching outskirts of Valentynivka and fighting for Tarasivka. Claim full control of Panteleimonivka village (Mar 31). Russian MoD previously claimed Panteleimonivka captured (Mar 29).
Lyman Direction:
Ukrainian Confirmation: Russian advance near Novoie (Mar 30).
Russian source claims front reported approaching Krasnyi Lyman again (Mar 31). Claims advances near Makiivka/Novoliubivka, fighting for Katerynivka (Mar 30).
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Direction (Donetsk):
Ukrainian Confirmation: Russian advance in Rozlyv (Mar 30).
NEW RU CLAIM (Voenkor Kotenok, Mar 31): Russian forces control over 50% of Rozlyv, with Ukrainian forces holding the western part.
NEW RU CLAIM (Voin DV, Mar 31): RU Group "Vostok" units are advancing and consolidating positions in Rozlyv. Claim breaking UA defenses near Veseloye. Claim establishing fire control over the Bogatyr-Konstantinopol logistics node. Allege heavy UA losses and degraded supply/rotation capability on the Vremivka salient due to sustained RU fire pressure. Claim destruction of UA groups and equipment.
Previous Russian claims entering/liberating parts of Rozlyv, liberating Preobrazhenka, fighting for Bohdanivka/Troitske, advances near Kotlyarivka & Novoselka. Clearing territory West of Rozovka (Alexandropol) claimed (Mar 31).
Kupyansk Direction (Kharkiv):
Russian claims advances near Kondrashivka, capture of Krasne Pershe (Mar 29/30), expansion W of Oskil towards Doroshovka/Zapadne (Mar 30 - Contradicted by UA bridge destruction), and expansion of bridgeheads N of Kupyansk (Mar 31).
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia):
Russian MoD claimed liberation of Shcherbaky (Mar 29/30). Claims fighting near Shcherbaky and inside Lobkove (Mar 29/31).
ISW confirmed Russian advances north of Zherebyanky (Mar 29).
Sumy Border:
Russian claimed capture of Veselovka (Mar 29, requires verification). RU sources claim ongoing "liberation" in Basivka (Sumy) (Mar 31, Unverified).
Missiles:2 Iskander-M launched towards Sumy (reportedly NOT intercepted, Mar 31). Ballistic missile strike on Shostka (Sumy) (Mar 30 night). RU claims Iskander strike on NGU in Ivot (Sumy). Massive strike (Night Mar 28/29): 172 Shahed/imitators launched, 94 intercepted.
UAVs:57/131 Shaheds destroyed overnight Mar 30/31. Impacts Sumy, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr Oblasts. Kharkiv City impact: 6 UAVs attacked, 5 impacts, 3 civilians injured, significant fires/damage. Russia employed 2,620 kamikaze drones (UGS, 24h to 06:00 UTC Mar 31).
Aviation/KABs:ALERT (Ongoing Mar 31 13:12 UTC): UA Air Force reports RU tactical aviation activity on Eastern axis, threat of air strikes for frontline oblasts. Earlier alerts for NE axis (12:25 UTC) and Kharkiv Oblast (12:34 UTC). Since start of day (UGS 16:00 UTC), Russia conducted 14 air strikes (24 KABs) in the Kursk operational zone. Previous 24h (UGS 06:00 UTC Mar 31): 116 aviation strikes (223 KABs) on Ukraine proper + 20 air strikes (31 KABs) in Kursk zone. Persistent heavy KAB use continues. Use of FAB-3000 bombs claimed in Kursk/Belgorod border area. Airstrikes reported today on Petrushivka, Stepok, etc. (Sumy); Pokrovsk, Udachne (Donetsk); Novopavlivka (Donetsk); Temyrivka, Velykomykhailivka, Zelene Pole (Zaporizhzhia).
Artillery/MLRS:145 artillery attacks (5 MLRS) reported in the Kursk operational zone since start of day (UGS 16:00 UTC). Previous 24h (UGS 06:00 UTC Mar 31): Over 5,300 shelling attacks (130 MLRS) across front. MLRS strike on Kupyansk (Kharkiv Oblast), 2 civilians wounded (Mar 31 morning). Heavy shelling on Nikopol District (Mar 30-31). Shelling of border settlements in Chernihiv/Sumy Oblasts continues (Mar 31). Shelling reported in Enerhodar (RU Source, Mar 31).
Russian Claims (Recent/Unverified):
NEW RU CLAIM: Strike on UA UAV command post/workshop (56th OMPBr / 12th Bde elements) in Druzhkivka (Konstantinivka direction), claimed 9 UA KIA, 8 WIA, 2 mobile CPs damaged (Dnevnik Desantnika, Mar 31).
NEW RU CLAIM: Strike on dormitory in Sloviansk allegedly used as PVD for UA 54th Brigade; claimed collapse/fire, casualties TBD (Dnevnik Desantnika, Mar 31).
NEW RU CLAIM (MoD Confirmed): RU 1442nd Motor Rifle Regt destroyed UA tank, pickup truck, UAV command post, and personnel in Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka direction using drones (Mar 31).
Claimed destruction of UA UAZ vehicle via mining + FPV strike (39th Motor Rifle Bde, Mar 31).
Claimed FPV drone strike on abandoned UA vehicle to prevent recovery (Mar 31).
Claimed use of "Krot" UGV drone strike near Yampol (Lyman direction) (Mar 31).
Russian Drone Tactics Assessment: Ukrainian military expert (P. Narozhnyi) notes a potential shift in Russian Shahed tactics, employing larger numbers simultaneously from multiple directions to saturate air defenses. Countermeasures are being developed.
Ukrainian Air Defense / Counter-Drone:
57/131 Shaheds destroyed (Night Mar 30/31); 94/172 Shahed/imitators destroyed (Night Mar 28/29).
Ongoing efforts to strengthen AD/EW in Zaporizhzhia direction.
GUR Experimental Anti-Drone System: Confirmed successful test interception of two Shaheds (Mar 29 night).
Russian sources report RU 88th "Espanola" Bde establishing anti-drone training using shotguns/special AK rounds.
Ukrainian Air/Drone Strikes:
NEW CLAIM: UA MiG-29 strike reported on RU command post near Oleshky, Kherson Oblast (Mar 31).
NEW CLAIM: UA 60th OMBR drone strike reported targeting RU soldier (Mar 31).
TOS-1A Destruction: Reported destruction of RU TOS-1A system 25km behind LOC (413th Sep Bn "Raid", Mar 31 video).
Bridge Destruction: Confirmed destruction of RU heavy mechanized bridge during attempted Oskil River crossing near Dvorichna (Kharkiv Obl.) (Reported Mar 30).
GBU/JDAM Use: Video released allegedly showing use of GBU-39/B SDB and GBU-62 JDAM-ER (Mar 31).
Strikes on RU Territory: Continued reports/claims of UA drone/artillery strikes on Belgorod/Kursk/Bryansk Oblasts. Russian MoD claims ongoing UA attacks on energy infrastructure (Mar 30-31).
Tactical Drone Strikes: UA Signum unit (53rd OMBr) destroyed RU BMP (Luhansk, Mar 31). UA 63rd Brigade drones destroyed up to two RU squads in Serebryansky Forest (Lyman dir, Mar 31).
NATO ISR: UK RC-135W SIGINT aircraft patrolled over Black Sea near Romania (Mar 31).
Russian Airfield Hardening: Construction of improved aircraft shelters reported concluding at RU tactical airfields (Fighterbomber, Mar 31).
IV. Ground Combat Operations by Direction (UGS 16:00 UTC & Other Sources)
Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod Border:
Ukrainian forces repelled 9 RU attacks in Kursk Oblast since morning; 5 clashes ongoing.
RU forces conducted 14 air strikes (24 KABs) and 145 artillery attacks (5 MLRS) in the Kursk operational zone since morning.
Ukrainian SSO units ("Ranger" regiment) confirmed capturing Russian personnel in Kursk Oblast and destroying a Russian group (Mar 31).
Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces hold approx. 40 sq km including Oleshnia and Gornal villages in Kursk Oblast.
Kharkiv Direction: 1 unsuccessful RU attack near Vovchansk.
Kupyansk Direction: 4 RU assaults towards Pishchane and near Zahryzove, Stepova Novoselivka. 1 clash ongoing.
Lyman Direction: 14 RU attacks near Nadiia, Dibrova, Kolodyazi, and towards Nove, Serebryanka, Torske, Zelena Dolyna, Novomykhailivka. 6 clashes ongoing.
Siversk Direction: UA forces repelling 2 RU attacks near Bilohorivka and Ivano-Darivka.
Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar): UA forces stopped 4 RU attempts near Chasiv Yar and towards Predtechyne. 2 attacks ongoing. RU claims (MoD) destroying UA tank, pickup, UAV CP, personnel via drone strikes (1442nd Regt) on Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka axis.
Toretsk Direction: 10 RU attacks near Toretsk. 4 clashes ongoing.
Pokrovsk Direction:HIGHEST INTENSITY. 36 RU attempts since morning near Oleksandropil, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Zelene, Shevchenko, Kotlyne, Serhiivka, Novoserhiivka, Novooleksandrivka, Uspenivka, Sribne, Kotlyarivka, Bohdanivka, Andriivka, Oleksiivka. UA forces repelled 28 attacks; 8 clashes ongoing. RU airstrikes on Pokrovsk, Udachne.
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Direction: 6 RU attacks near Kostyantynopil, Burlatske, Dniproenerhiya, and towards Rozlyv. 4 clashes ongoing. RU airstrike on Novopavlivka. Russian sources claim significant tactical gains in Rozlyv and pressure on the Vremivka salient (See Section II).
