Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 31, 2025, 13:15 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. As of 16:00 UTC (Mar 31, UGS), 109 combat clashes occurred since the start of the day. The Pokrovsk Direction experiences the highest intensity (36 attacks). Significant combat activity persists on the Lyman (14 attacks), Toretsk (10 attacks), Kursk/Belgorod border (14 attacks repelled/ongoing), Huliaipole (8 attacks), Orikhiv (7 attacks), Novopavlivsk (6 attacks), and Kupyansk (4 attacks) directions. Multiple clashes remain ongoing across several sectors. Russian sources note continuous combat across the entire front with no static sectors.
Russian Main Efforts: The primary offensive axis continues towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure is maintained towards Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and the Chasiv Yar area. Efforts persist to consolidate control and advance within the Kursk border area, with potential aims to expand operations into Sumy Oblast. Multi-axis advances continue in Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces reportedly attempt to exploit adverse weather conditions (rain hindering Ukrainian drones) for ground assaults (e.g., Vuhledar area).
Ukrainian Defensive Posture & Developments:
Forces maintain defensive lines, repelling numerous assaults and containing Russian advances across multiple directions (UGS, Mar 31 16:00 UTC). Stabilization efforts reported partially successful on the Pokrovsk direction (Syrskyi, Mar 31), though intense fighting continues.
Active defense and counter-actions continue within Russian border territory (Kursk/Belgorod Oblasts). Ukrainian forces repelled 9 Russian attacks in Kursk Oblast since the start of the day, with 5 clashes ongoing (UGS, 16:00 UTC). Ukrainian SSO units ("Ranger" regiment) confirmed capturing Russian personnel in Kursk Oblast and destroying a Russian group (Mar 31). Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces hold approx. 40 sq km including Oleshnia and Gornal villages in Kursk Oblast, alleging a Ukrainian counter-attack near Sudzha MAPP was repelled (Mar 31).
President Zelenskyy previously confirmed (Mar 29) active Ukrainian operations on Russian territory hinder potential Russian offensives towards Sumy/Kharkiv.
The commemoration of the Bucha liberation anniversary (Mar 31) underscores the strategic stakes and reinforces Ukrainian resolve.
Training & Personnel: Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reported a reduction in Ukrainian losses during March, attributed to updated basic combat training and adaptation periods (Mar 31). The 10th Mountain Assault Brigade "Edelweiss" is actively training new recruits under the "Contract 18-24" project, emphasizing experienced instructors and modern equipment (Mar 31). Support events for wounded personnel (e.g., paratroopers) highlight focus on soldier care and morale (Mar 31). Meetings continue with families of personnel from units like the 23rd Mechanized Brigade regarding POW/MIA status (Mar 31).
Counter-Intelligence: A Kharkiv resident was sentenced to 15 years for treason for passing information on Ukrainian troop locations to Russia in late 2023/early 2024 (Prosecutor General's Office, Mar 31).
Civilian Resilience: Offline education resumed in a repaired school shelter (capacity 350) in Zaporizhzhia, funded by UNICEF and the City Council (Mar 31).
International Support & Diplomacy:
Netherlands: Pledged €500M for Ukrainian drone development (part of €2B aid for 2025) (Mar 31).
Sweden: Announced record €1.6B aid package (Mar 31).
European Parliamentarians Visit: High-level delegation arrived in Kyiv (Mar 31) for Bucha commemoration.
US-Ukraine Talks: Ongoing work on updated agreement concerning mineral resources (Mar 31).
Energy Situation: Threat to Ukrainian energy infrastructure remains high. Russian MoD continues to claim ongoing Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure (Bryansk/Belgorod, Mar 30-31), contradicting Kyiv's stated position.
II. Territorial Changes & Control (Recent - Primarily RU Claims unless specified)
Kursk Oblast:
Russian MoD confirmed capture of Hoholivka (Mar 31), claimed cleared by Airborne troops, supported by video.
Russian sources claim control of half of Huyevo (Mar 31), fighting ongoing. Claims persist regarding Sudzha town being "liberated" (Mar 30 - Unverified). Control claimed over northern Uspenivka (Mar 30).
Ukrainian forces reportedly hold Oleshnia and Gornal (RU source claim, Mar 31).
Pokrovsk Direction (Donetsk):
Russian MoD confirmed liberation of Zaporizhzhia settlement (Mar 31).
Russian sources claim approaching Novooleksandrivka and advances near Kotlyarivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka (Mar 31), tactical gains south of Pokrovsk (Mar 30), and fighting near Bohdanivka towards Troitske (Mar 31).
Ukraine previously confirmed incremental Russian advance near Katerynivka (Mar 27).
Toretsk Direction (Donetsk):
Ukrainian Confirmation: Russian advance near Panteleimonivka (Mar 30).
Russian sources claim reaching outskirts of Valentynivka and fighting for Tarasivka. Claim full control of Panteleimonivka village (Mar 31). Russian MoD previously claimed Panteleimonivka captured (Mar 29).
Lyman Direction:
Ukrainian Confirmation: Russian advance near Novoie (Mar 30).
Russian source claims front reported approaching Krasnyi Lyman again (Mar 31). Claims advances near Makiivka/Novoliubivka, fighting for Katerynivka (Mar 30).
Novopavlivsk Direction (Donetsk):
Ukrainian Confirmation: Russian advance in Rozlyv (Mar 30).
NEW RU CLAIM: Russian forces control over 50% of Rozlyv, with Ukrainian forces holding the western part (Voenkor Kotenok, Mar 31).
Previous Russian claims entering/liberating parts of Rozlyv, liberating Preobrazhenka, fighting for Bohdanivka/Troitske, advances near Kotlyarivka & Novoselka. Clearing territory West of Rozovka (Alexandropol) claimed (Mar 31).
Kupyansk Direction (Kharkiv):
Russian claims advances near Kondrashivka, capture of Krasne Pershe (Mar 29/30), expansion W of Oskil towards Doroshovka/Zapadne (Mar 30 - Contradicted by UA bridge destruction), and expansion of bridgeheads N of Kupyansk (Mar 31).
Ukraine previously confirmed Russian advance near Orlyanske (Mar 27).
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia):
Russian MoD claimed liberation of Shcherbaky (Mar 29/30). Claims fighting near Shcherbaky and inside Lobkove (Mar 29/31).
ISW confirmed Russian advances north of Zherebyanky (Mar 29).
Sumy Border:
Russian claimed capture of Veselovka (Mar 29, requires verification). RU sources claim ongoing "liberation" in Basivka (Sumy) (Mar 31, Unverified).
Missiles:2 Iskander-M launched towards Sumy (reportedly NOT intercepted, Mar 31). Ballistic missile strike on Shostka (Sumy) (Mar 30 night). RU claims Iskander strike on NGU in Ivot (Sumy). Massive strike (Night Mar 28/29): 172 Shahed/imitators launched, 94 intercepted, impacts/casualties Dnipro, Kharkiv, Sumy.
UAVs:57/131 Shaheds destroyed overnight Mar 30/31. Impacts Sumy, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr Oblasts. Kharkiv City impact: 6 UAVs attacked, 5 impacts, 3 civilians injured, significant fires/damage in Kyivskyi district. Russia employed 2,620 kamikaze drones (UGS, 24h to 06:00 UTC Mar 31).
Aviation/KABs:ALERT (Ongoing Mar 31 13:12 UTC): UA Air Force reports RU tactical aviation activity on Eastern axis, threat of air strikes for frontline oblasts. Earlier alerts for NE axis (12:25 UTC) and Kharkiv Oblast (12:34 UTC). Since start of day (UGS 16:00 UTC), Russia conducted 14 air strikes (24 KABs) in the Kursk operational zone. Previous 24h (UGS 06:00 UTC Mar 31): 116 aviation strikes (223 KABs) on Ukraine proper + 20 air strikes (31 KABs) in Kursk zone. Persistent heavy KAB use continues. Use of FAB-3000 bombs claimed in Kursk/Belgorod border area. Airstrikes reported today on Petrushivka, Stepok, etc. (Sumy); Pokrovsk, Udachne (Donetsk); Novopavlivka (Donetsk); Temyrivka, Velykomykhailivka, Zelene Pole (Zaporizhzhia).
Artillery/MLRS:145 artillery attacks (5 MLRS) reported in the Kursk operational zone since start of day (UGS 16:00 UTC). Previous 24h (UGS 06:00 UTC Mar 31): Over 5,300 shelling attacks (130 MLRS) across front. MLRS strike on Kupyansk (Kharkiv Oblast), 2 civilians wounded (Mar 31 morning). Heavy shelling on Nikopol District (Mar 30-31). Shelling of border settlements in Chernihiv/Sumy Oblasts continues (Mar 31).
Russian Claims: Strikes hit military airfield, UAV production/sites, ammo depots. Claimed warehouse destruction in Dobropillya. Continued claims hitting UA personnel/equipment in Kursk/Sumy border areas. NEW RU CLAIM: Strike on UA UAV command post/workshop (56th OMPBr / 12th Bde elements) in Druzhkivka (Konstantinivka direction), claimed 9 UA KIA, 8 WIA, 2 mobile CPs damaged (Mar 31, Verification Required). Claimed drone/arty strikes on UA positions in Panteleimonivka (Mar 31). Claimed use of "Krot" UGV drone strike near Yampol (Lyman direction) (Mar 31). Claimed FPV strikes in Kursk border area (Rubikon Centre, Mar 31).
Ukrainian Air Defense / Counter-Drone:
57/131 Shaheds destroyed (Night Mar 30/31); 94/172 Shahed/imitators destroyed (Night Mar 28/29). 3 Shaheds downed over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Night Mar 30/31).
Ongoing efforts to strengthen AD/EW in Zaporizhzhia direction.
GUR Experimental Anti-Drone System: Confirmed successful test interception of two Shaheds (Mar 29 night).
Increasing use of anti-drone logistical tunnels reported by both sides (Colonelcassad, Mar 31).
Ukrainian Air/Drone Strikes:
NEW CLAIM: UA MiG-29 strike reported on RU command post near Oleshky, Kherson Oblast (Mar 31).
TOS-1A Destruction: Reported destruction of RU TOS-1A system 25km behind LOC (413th Sep Bn "Raid", Mar 31 video).
Bridge Destruction: Confirmed destruction of RU heavy mechanized bridge during attempted Oskil River crossing near Dvorichna (Kharkiv Obl.) (Reported Mar 30).
GBU/JDAM Use: Video released allegedly showing use of GBU-39/B SDB and GBU-62 JDAM-ER (Mar 31).
Strikes on RU Territory: Continued reports/claims of UA drone/artillery strikes on Belgorod/Kursk/Bryansk Oblasts. Russian MoD claims ongoing UA attacks on energy infrastructure (Mar 30-31), including alleged attacks on Bryanskenergo facilities causing power outages (Mar 30).
Tactical Drone Strikes: UA Signum unit (53rd OMBr) destroyed RU BMP (Luhansk, Mar 31). UA 63rd Brigade drones destroyed up to two RU squads in Serebryansky Forest (Lyman dir, Mar 31).
NATO ISR: UK RC-135W SIGINT aircraft patrolled over Black Sea near Romania (Mar 31).
Russian Airfield Hardening: Construction of improved aircraft shelters reported concluding at RU tactical airfields (Fighterbomber, Mar 31).
