Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 31, 2025, 12:45 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH, concentrated on the Pokrovsk Direction. Significant combat activity persists on the Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and Kursk/Belgorod border directions. Intensity was reported slightly lower on March 30 compared to the previous day. Russian sources note continuous combat across the entire front with no static sectors.
Russian Main Efforts: The primary offensive axis continues towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure is maintained towards Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and the Chasiv Yar area. Efforts persist to consolidate control and advance within the Kursk border area, potentially seeking to expand operations into Sumy Oblast. Multi-axis advances continue in Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces reportedly attempt to exploit adverse weather conditions (rain hindering Ukrainian drones) for ground assaults (e.g., Vuhledar area).
Ukrainian Defensive Posture & Developments:
Forces maintain defensive lines, repelling numerous assaults, including 73 Russian attacks on the Pokrovsk direction (UGS, 24h preceding 06:00 UTC Mar 31). Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reported stabilization efforts were partially successful on the Pokrovsk direction, with Russian forces "stalling" (Mar 31). Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled 226 Russian attacks near Vuhledar (Mar 31).
Active defense and counter-actions continue within Russian border territory (Kursk/Belgorod Oblasts), with 21 Russian attacks stopped in the Kursk operational zone (UGS, past 24h). Ukrainian SSO units ("Ranger" regiment) confirmed capturing Russian personnel in Kursk Oblast and destroying a Russian group. Russian MoD claims repelling one Ukrainian counter-attack in Kursk Oblast (Mar 31). Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces hold approx. 40 sq km including Oleshnia and Gornal villages in Kursk Oblast with significant forces.
President Zelenskyy previously confirmed (Mar 29) active Ukrainian operations on Russian territory are hindering potential Russian offensives towards Sumy/Kharkiv. The commemoration of the Bucha liberation anniversary (Mar 31) underscores the strategic stakes.
Training Impact & Reduced Losses: Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reported a reduction in Ukrainian losses during March, attributed to an updated and extended (1.5 months) basic combat training program and mandatory adaptation periods for new personnel within combat brigades (Mar 31).
Operational Tempo (Ukraine - March): CinC Syrskyi reported (Mar 31) approx. 100,000 artillery fire missions conducted and over 81,700 UAV combat/special tasks performed (including 158 DeepStrike engagements) since early March. Emphasis remains on active defense tactics, leading to regaining some positions on certain front sections.
Needs Highlighted (Syrskyi): Increased requirement for fiber-optic drones resistant to Russian EW; enhance brigade combat capabilities; prepare equipment for summer; improve FPV protection for vehicles (Mar 31).
International Support & Diplomacy:
Netherlands: Pledged €500M for Ukrainian drone development (part of €2B aid for 2025) (Mar 31).
Sweden: Announced record €1.6B aid package, including significant funds for arms procurement (likely AD, artillery), support for coalitions/UA industry, and equipment (Mar 31).
European Parliamentarians Visit: High-level delegation of Speakers/Vice-Speakers from multiple European parliaments and EP representatives arrived in Kyiv (Mar 31) for Bucha commemoration.
US-Ukraine Talks: Extended talks held on details of an updated agreement concerning mineral resources; work on the final draft continues (Mar 31). Russian sources continue to highlight US intelligence/strategic support to Ukraine.
Energy Situation: Threat to Ukrainian energy infrastructure remains high. Russian MoD continues to claim ongoing Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure (Bryansk/Belgorod, Mar 29-31), contradicting Kyiv's stated position.
II. Territorial Changes & Control (Recent - Primarily RU Claims unless specified)
Kursk Oblast:
Russian MoD confirmed capture of Hoholivka (Mar 31), claimed cleared by 137th VDV Regt. Russian sources claim control of half of Huyevo (Mar 31) and that Sudzha town is "liberated" (Mar 30 - Unverified). Control claimed over northern Uspenivka (Mar 30). Ukrainian forces reportedly hold Oleshnia and Gornal (RU source claim, Mar 31).
Pokrovsk Direction (Donetsk):
Russian MoD confirmed liberation of Zaporizhzhia settlement (Mar 31).
Russian sources claim approaching Novooleksandrivka and advances near Kotlyarivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka (Mar 31), and unspecified tactical gains south of Pokrovsk (Mar 30).
Ukraine previously confirmed incremental Russian advance near Katerynivka (Mar 27).
Toretsk Direction (Donetsk):
Ukrainian Confirmation: Russian advance near Panteleimonivka (Mar 30).
Russian sources claim reaching outskirts of Valentynivka and fighting for Tarasivka. Russian sources claim full control of Panteleimonivka village achieved (Mar 31). Russian MoD previously claimed Panteleimonivka captured (Mar 29).
Lyman Direction:
Ukrainian Confirmation: Russian advance near Novoie (Mar 30).
Russian source claims front reported approaching Krasnyi Lyman again (Mar 31). Russian sources claim advances near Makiivka/Novoliubivka, fighting for Katerynivka (Mar 30).
Novopavlivsk Direction (Donetsk):
Ukrainian Confirmation: Russian advance in Rozlyv (Mar 30).
Russian claims entering/liberating parts of Rozlyv, liberating Preobrazhenka, fighting for Bohdanivka/Troitske, advances near Kotlyarivka & Novoselka. Russian sources claim clearing territory West of Rozovka (Alexandropol) (Mar 31).
Kupyansk Direction (Kharkiv):
Russian claims advances near Kondrashivka, capture of Krasne Pershe (Mar 29/30), and expansion W of Oskil towards Doroshovka/Zapadne (Mar 30 - Contradicted by UA bridge destruction).
Ukraine previously confirmed Russian advance near Orlyanske (Mar 27).
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia):
Russian MoD claimed liberation of Shcherbaky (Mar 29/30).
ISW confirmed Russian advances north of Zherebyanky (Mar 29).
Sumy Border:
Russian claimed capture of Veselovka (Mar 29, requires verification, denied by UA DPSU Mar 29).
Missiles:2 Iskander-M launched from Kursk towards Sumy (reportedly NOT intercepted, Mar 31). Ballistic missile strike on Shostka (Sumy) (Mar 30 night). Russian MoD claims Iskander strike on NGU positions in Ivot (Sumy). Massive strike (Night Mar 28/29): 172 Shahed/imitators launched, 94 intercepted. Significant impacts/casualties in Dnipro City (4 KIA, 25 WIA total), Kharkiv Oblast, Sumy Oblast.
UAVs:131 Shahed UAVs + 45 decoy drones launched overnight Mar 30/31; 57 Shaheds destroyed. Impacts in Sumy, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr Oblasts. Kharkiv City impact: 6 UAVs attacked, 5 impacts, 3 civilians injured. Russia employed 2,620 kamikaze drones (UGS, 24h to 06:00 UTC Mar 31). Russian drone strikes ("Krot" UGV) claimed against UA fortifications near Yampol (Donetsk) (Mar 31, confirmed Kotsnews 12:39 UTC). Russian sources claim drone strikes (Vega unit) continue despite Ukrainian EW efforts (Mar 31).
Aviation/KABs:ALERT (Ongoing Mar 31): Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by Russian tactical aviation towards Sumy Oblast (12:06 UTC). Increased Russian tactical aviation activity on NE axis, threat of air strikes for frontline oblasts (12:25 UTC). Threat alert for Kharkiv Oblast (12:34 UTC). Russia conducted 116 aviation strikes (223 KABs) on Ukraine proper + 20 air strikes (31 KABs) in Kursk ops zone (UGS, 24h to 06:00 UTC Mar 31). Persistent heavy KAB use continues (e.g., 135 KABs Mar 29). Use of FAB-3000 bombs claimed in Kursk/Belgorod border area.
Artillery/MLRS: Over 5,300 shelling attacks (130 MLRS) reported (UGS, 24h to 06:00 UTC Mar 31). MLRS strike on Kupyansk (Kharkiv Oblast), 2 civilians wounded (Mar 31 morning). Heavy shelling on Nikopol District (Mar 30-31).
Russian Claims: Strikes hit military airfield, UAV production/sites, ammo depots. Claimed warehouse destruction in Dobropillya (Donetsk). Continued claims of hitting Ukrainian personnel/equipment in Kursk/Sumy border areas.
Ukrainian Air Defense / Counter-Drone:
57/131 Shaheds destroyed overnight Mar 30/31; 94/172 Shahed/imitators destroyed night Mar 28/29.
Ongoing efforts to strengthen AD/EW in Zaporizhzhia direction.
GUR Experimental Anti-Drone System: Successful test interception of two Shaheds during Mar 29 night attack confirmed.
Ukrainian Claims: Destruction of RU recon UAVs (Supercam, Zala) via FPV interceptors; destruction of 51 RU UAVs over Belgorod Oblast (past 13 days).
Tactics: Increasing use of anti-drone logistical tunnels reported by both sides (Colonelcassad, Mar 31).
Ukrainian Air/Drone Strikes:
TOS-1A Destruction: Ukrainian drone operators (413th Sep Bn "Raid") reported destroying a Russian TOS-1A system 25km behind the line of contact (Mar 31 video).
Bridge Destruction: OSUV Khortytsia confirmed destruction of Russian heavy mechanized bridge during attempted Oskil River crossing near Dvorichna (Kharkiv Obl.) (Reported Mar 30).
GBU/JDAM Use: Video released allegedly showing use of GBU-39/B SDB and GBU-62 JDAM-ER (Mar 31).
Strikes on RU Territory: Ukrainian AF confirmed strike on Pohar border point (Bryansk) destroying infrastructure/comms/EW (Mar 27). Independent sources confirm damage to MAPP Pohar building and one "Akhmat" fighter wounded from Mar 27 strike (ASTRA, Mar 31). Belgorod Governor confirmed Ukrainian shelling/UAV strikes (Mar 30). Russian MoD claims ongoing UA attacks on energy infrastructure in Belgorod/Bryansk (Mar 30-31).
Tactical Drone Strikes: Ukrainian Signum unit (53rd OMBr) reported destroying a Russian BMP with two FPV drones in Luhansk Oblast (Mar 31). Ukrainian 63rd Brigade drones reported destroying up to two Russian squads in Serebryansky Forest (N of Lyman) (Mar 31).
NATO ISR: UK RC-135W Rivet Joint SIGINT aircraft observed patrolling over the Black Sea near Romania, escorted by 2x Eurofighter Typhoons (Mar 31).
Russian Airfield Hardening: Construction of aircraft shelters (not full Soviet-era hardened bunkers, but improved protection) reported concluding at Russian tactical airfields (Fighterbomber, Mar 31).
IV. Ground Combat Operations by Direction (Mar 30-31 Reports)
Kursk/Belgorod Border Area: Intense fighting. Ukrainian forces repelled 21 Russian assaults (past 24h, UGS Mar 31). Ukrainian SSO units active, destroying RU group and capturing POWs (Mar 31). Russian MoD claims hitting multiple Ukrainian brigades, repelling one counter-attack, and inflicting >190 casualties (past 24h). Russian MoD confirmed capture of Hoholivka, claimed cleared by 137th VDV Regt. Russian sources claim control of half of Huyevo, advancing towards Sudzha, and repelled Ukrainian counter-attack near Sudzha MAP. Heavy Russian air/arty/drone use; FAB-3000 use claimed. Russian forces conducting demining operations (Sudzha district). Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces hold Oleshnia and Gornal.
Pokrovsk Direction:Highest Intensity. Ukrainian forces stopped 73 Russian attacks (past 24h, UGS Mar 31); previously 73 assaults repelled (UGS Mar 29). CinC Syrskyi noted situation partially stabilized due to Ukrainian actions (Mar 31). Russian MoD confirmed capture of Zaporizhzhia settlement (Donetsk). Russian sources claim approaching Novooleksandrivka.
Toretsk Direction:High Intensity. Ukrainian forces stopped 17 Russian attacks (past 24h, UGS Mar 31); previously 20 attacks (UGS Mar 29). Ukraine confirmed Russian advance near Panteleimonivka (Mar 30). Russian sources claim village secured, reaching outskirts of Valentynivka, fighting for Tarasivka.
Lyman Direction:High Intensity. Ukrainian forces stopped 16 Russian attacks (past 24h, UGS Mar 31); previously critical intensity with 16 attacks (UGS Mar 29). Ukraine confirmed Russian advance near Novoie (Mar 30). Russian forces reported approaching Krasnyi Lyman again (RU claim). Ukrainian 63rd Brigade active with drone strikes in Serebryansky Forest. Russian sources claim use of "Krot" UGV near Yampol.
Novopavlivsk Direction: Significant Activity. Ukrainian forces stopped 11 Russian attacks (past 24h, UGS Mar 31); previously 17 attacks (UGS Mar 29). Ukraine confirmed Russian advance in Rozlyv (Mar 30). Russian claims entering/liberating parts of Rozlyv, liberating Preobrazhenka. Russian forces reported attempting assaults near Vuhledar exploiting adverse weather (Mar 31).
Chasiv Yar Area (Kramatorsk Direction): Russian sources claim Ukrainian 24th Brigade attempted counter-attack/evacuation near Chasiv Yar morning Mar 31, allegedly stopped by mines/fire from Russian 98th VDV Div (RU claim - Verification Required).
Luhansk Oblast: Heavy fighting continues. Ukrainian 53rd OMBr drone unit active, destroying Russian BMP (Mar 31).
Kupyansk Direction: Activity persists. Ukrainian artillery (Hart Brigade) active near Vovchansk, disrupting Russian fortification efforts, claiming 14 RU KIA (Mar 31).
Zaporizhzhia Direction (Orikhiv Area): Activity reported. Russian MoD previously claimed liberation of Shcherbaky (Mar 29/30).
V. Russian Activities & Developments
Tactics & Equipment: Continued heavy reliance on FPV/recon drones. Claims of efforts to overcome Ukrainian EW (e.g., Vega unit claim Mar 31). Use of UGVs ("Krot") for striking fortifications claimed near Yampol (Mar 31). Adaptation seen with cage armor ("cope cages") on vehicles, including named tanks dedicated to fallen soldiers (BARS-13). Ongoing efforts by volunteer groups/charitable foundations to supply forces noted. Establishment of specialized drone modification/repair labs within units (e.g., RKhBZ in Kursk, Mar 31). Increasing use of anti-drone logistical tunnels reported (Mar 31). Construction of aircraft shelters at airfields reported concluding.
Information Operations: Naming vehicles after fallen soldiers used for morale. Dissemination of combat footage claiming successes (e.g., Hoholivka). Emphasis on narratives of repelling Ukrainian "invasions" (Kursk). Highlighting alleged internal instability/potential civil war in Ukraine. Continued promotion of narratives blaming West (UK/France) for attacks on Russian territory (Sudzha). Circulation of historical narratives (e.g., Rzhev battle) likely for patriotic mobilization. Dissemination of analysis highlighting US intelligence/strategic support to Ukraine.
Internal Developments: Russian General Prosecutor's Office reportedly requests suspension of ban on Taliban movement (Mar 31). Rospotrebnadzor downplays reports of "unknown virus," suggesting mycoplasma infection with no risk to population.
VI. Ukrainian Activities & Developments
Capabilities & Tactics: Active defense, counter-attacks in Russian border areas. Use of SSO for operations in Kursk Oblast (capturing POWs). Successful destruction of high-value target (TOS-1A) deep behind lines. Destruction of Russian bridging attempt. Testing of experimental anti-drone system (GUR). Use of GBU/JDAM claimed. Artillery disrupting Russian defensive preparations (Vovchansk area). Widespread use of FPV drones for attack and reconnaissance. Increased use of anti-drone logistical tunnels reported.
Commemoration: Third anniversary of Bucha liberation commemorated by President Zelenskyy, officials, and international delegation, reinforcing the narrative of Russian atrocities and Ukrainian defense aims.
Needs: Continued high demand for drones (all types), EW-resistant systems, enhanced brigade capabilities, FPV protection for vehicles identified. Public fundraising efforts continue for drones and EW systems (e.g., 47th Brigade).
