Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 31, 2025, 12:15 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH, particularly on the Pokrovsk Direction. Significant activity persists on the Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and Kursk/Belgorod border directions. Intensity reported slightly lower on Mar 30 compared to the previous day. Russian sources note continuous combat across the entire front with no static sectors (Mar 31).
Russian Main Efforts: The primary offensive axis remains towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure continues towards Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and the Chasiv Yar area. Efforts persist to consolidate control and advance within the Kursk border area and potentially expand operations into Sumy Oblast. Multi-axis advances continue in Donetsk Oblast. RU forces reportedly attempt to exploit adverse weather conditions (rain hindering UA drones) for ground assaults (e.g., Vuhledar area, Mar 31).
Ukrainian Defensive Posture & Developments:
Forces maintain defensive lines, repelling numerous assaults, notably 73 Russian attacks on the Pokrovsk direction (UGS, 24h preceding 06:00 UTC Mar 31). Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reported stabilization efforts partially successful on the Pokrovsk direction, with RU forces "stalling" (Mar 31). UA forces reportedly repelled 226 RU attacks near Vuhledar (Mar 31).
Active defense and counter-actions continue within Russian border territory (Kursk/Belgorod Oblasts), with 21 Russian attacks stopped in the Kursk operational zone (UGS, past 24h). Ukrainian SSO units reportedly captured Russian personnel in Kursk Oblast. RU MoD claims repelling one UA counter-attack in Kursk Oblast (Mar 31).
President Zelenskyy previously confirmed (Mar 29) active Ukrainian operations on Russian territory are hindering potential RU offensives towards Sumy/Kharkiv. Commemoration of Bucha liberation anniversary emphasizes the stakes of the conflict (Mar 31).
Training Impact & Reduced Losses: Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reported a reduction in Ukrainian losses during March, attributing it to an updated and extended (1.5 months) basic combat training program and mandatory adaptation periods for new personnel within combat brigades (Mar 31).
Operational Tempo (UA - March): CinC Syrskyi reported (Mar 31) approx. 100,000 artillery fire missions conducted and over 81,700 UAV combat/special tasks performed (including 158 DeepStrike engagements) since early March. Commander Syrskyi emphasized applying active defense tactics, leading to regaining some positions on certain front sections.
Needs Highlighted (Syrskyi): Increased requirement for fiber-optic drones resistant to RU EW; enhance brigade combat capabilities; prepare equipment for summer; improve FPV protection for vehicles (Mar 31).
International Support & Regional Developments:
Netherlands: Pledged €500M for UA drone development (part of €2B aid for 2025) (Mar 31).
Sweden: Announced record €1.6B ($1.6B / 16B SEK) aid package: €912M for arms procurement (AD, arty likely), €465M for funds/coalitions/UA industry, €50M MGs/ammo/training/med vehicles (Mar 31). Focus includes AD, artillery, satcom, naval capabilities.
European Parliamentarians Visit: High-level delegation of Speakers/Vice-Speakers from multiple European parliaments (BE, UK, DK, EE, IS, ES, LV, LT, LU, NO, PL, PT, SI, FI, HR, CZ, SE) and EP representatives arrived in Kyiv (Mar 31).
Poland: Reports indicate mandatory shooting lessons being introduced in schools, using replica weapons, framed by some instructors as preparation for potential threats including from Russia (Mar 31).
Energy Situation: Threat to Ukrainian energy infrastructure remains high following previous RU strikes and the collapse of the prior "energy moratorium" (Mar 28). Daily damage to Zaporizhzhia grid continues (Mar 28). RU MoD claims ongoing UA attacks on RU energy infrastructure (Bryansk/Belgorod) (Mar 29-31).
Diplomacy/Negotiations: Ukraine and US held extended talks on details of an updated agreement concerning mineral resources; work on the final draft continues (Suspilne ref OP, Mar 31). RU MFA continues narratives blaming UK/France for Sudzha GIS strike (Mar 28). RU sources disseminate analysis highlighting US intelligence/strategic support to Ukraine since war began, potentially to frame current dynamics (Mar 31). RU sources propagate narratives suggesting high risk of internal conflict within Ukraine, potentially justifying external intervention or undermining UA stability (Mar 31).
II. Territorial Changes & Control (Recent - Primarily RU Claims unless specified)
Kursk Oblast:
RU MoD confirmed capture of Hoholivka (Mar 31). RU sources claim Ryazan paratroopers (137th Regt, 106th VDV Div) supported by arty/drones cleared the settlement (Mar 31). RU MoD claims ongoing operations to "neutralise" UA formations in the region.
RU sources claim control of half of Huyevo (Mar 31) and that Sudzha town is "liberated" (Mar 30 - Unverified). Control claimed over northern Uspenivka (Mar 30).
Pokrovsk Direction (Donetsk):
RU MoD confirmed liberation of Zaporizhzhia settlement (Mar 31).
RU sources claim approaching Novooleksandrivka and advances near Kotlyarivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka (Mar 31). RU sources claim unspecified tactical gains south of Pokrovsk near Kotlyne, Shevchenko, Pischane (Mar 30).
UA previously confirmed incremental RU advance near Katerynivka (Mar 27).
Toretsk Direction (Donetsk):
UA Confirmation: Russian advance near Panteleimonivka (Mar 30).
RU sources claim reaching outskirts of Valentynivka and fighting for Tarasivka. RU sources claim full control of Panteleimonivka village achieved (Mar 31). RU MoD previously claimed Panteleimonivka captured (Mar 29).
Lyman Direction:
UA Confirmation: Russian advance near Novoie (Mar 30).
RU source claims front reported approaching Krasnyi Lyman again (Mar 31). RU sources claim advances near Makiivka/Novoliubivka, fighting for Katerynivka (Mar 30). Terny previously assessed as largely RU-occupied.
Novopavlivsk/Andriivske Directions (Donetsk):
UA Confirmation: Russian advance in Rozlyv (Mar 30).
RU claims entering/liberating parts of Rozlyv, liberating Preobrazhenka, fighting for Bohdanivka/Troitske, advances near Kotlyarivka & Novoselka. RU sources claim clearing territory West of Rozovka (Alexandropol) (Mar 31). Gradual advance towards Dnipropetrovsk border claimed (Mar 30).
Kupyansk Direction (Kharkiv):
RU claims advances near Kondrashivka, expanding bridgehead N of Kupyansk, new positions W of Orlyanske, capture of Krasne Pershe (Mar 29/30), and expansion W of Oskil towards Doroshovka/Zapadne (Mar 30 - Contradicted by UA bridge destruction).
UA previously confirmed RU advance near Orlyanske (Mar 27).
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia):
RU MoD claimed liberation of Shcherbaky (Mar 29/30). RU claims advances near Dolynka–Shcherbaky, Piatykhatky–Stepove, and near Mali Shcherbaky/Stepove axes.
ISW confirmed RU advances north of Zherebyanky (Mar 29).
Sumy Border:
RU claimed capture of Veselovka (Mar 29, requires verification).
Missiles:2 Iskander-M launched from Kursk (reportedly targeting Sumy, NOT intercepted). Ballistic missile strike on Shostka (Sumy Oblast) (Mar 30 night). RU MoD claims Iskander strike on NGU positions/equipment in Ivot (Sumy) destroying vehicles/personnel. RU claims strikes hit military airfield, UAV production/launch sites, ammo depots. RU claims strike destroyed warehouse/vehicles supplying UA 5th Assault Brigade in Dobropillya (Donetsk) (Mar 31).
UAVs:131 Shahed UAVs + 45 decoy drones launched overnight Mar 30/31; 57 Shaheds destroyed. Impacts in Sumy, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr Oblasts. Kharkiv City impact: 6 UAVs attacked, 5 impacts (Kyivskyi district), 3 civilians injured, damage to civilian infrastructure. RU employed 2,620 kamikaze drones (UGS, 24h to 06:00 UTC Mar 31). RU drone strikes ("Krot" UGV) claimed against UA fortifications near Yampol (DPR) (Mar 31). RU sources claim drone strikes (Vega unit) continue hitting targets despite UA EW efforts (Mar 31).
Aviation/KABs:ALERT (12:06 UTC Mar 31): UA Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by RU tactical aviation towards Sumy Oblast. Russia conducted 116 aviation strikes (223 KABs) on Ukraine proper + 20 air strikes (31 KABs) in Kursk ops zone (UGS, 24h to 06:00 UTC Mar 31). Persistent heavy KAB use continues (e.g., 135 KABs reported Mar 29, 32 in Kursk zone Mar 28). Use of FAB-3000 bombs claimed in Kursk/Belgorod border area. KAB strikes hit Kupyansk (multiple WIA, damage Mar 30/31), Synelnykove district (Mar 30), Novopil, Kamyanske, Novoandriivka, Novodarivka, Zelene Pole, Huliaipole, Zaliznychne (Mar 30).
Artillery/MLRS: Over 5,300 shelling attacks (130 MLRS) reported (UGS, 24h to 06:00 UTC Mar 31). MLRS strike on Kupyansk (Kharkiv Oblast), 2 civilians wounded (Mar 31 morning). Heavy shelling on Nikopol District (Mar 30, 1 WIA). Attacks on Malokaterynivka (Zaporizhzhia), Horlivka (Donetsk) reported Mar 30. RU MoD claims arty/air strikes engaged UA manpower/hardware near Gornal, Guyevo, Oleshnya (Kursk) and multiple locations in Sumy Oblast (Mar 31).
Ukrainian Air Defense / Counter-Drone:
57/131 Shaheds destroyed overnight Mar 30/31.
Ongoing efforts to strengthen AD/EW in Zaporizhzhia direction.
UA Claims (Mar 31): Destruction of 3 RU recon UAVs (Supercam, 2x Zala) via FPV interceptors; destruction of RU Zala over Sumy; destruction of 51 RU UAVs over Belgorod Oblast (past 13 days). Soldier account highlights modifications to anti-drone rifles to counter FPV/Mavics.
GUR Experimental Anti-Drone System: Successful test interception of two Shaheds during Mar 29 night attack confirmed.
RU Claims: 66 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight (Bryansk, Kaluga, Kursk Oblasts). 150 UA UAVs and 5 JDAM bombs downed over 24h (RU MoD, Mar 31). 3 UA UAVs shot down over Crimea (Mar 30).
Ukrainian Air/Drone Strikes:
TOS-1A Destruction: Operators of 413th Separate Battalion of Unmanned Systems ("Raid") reported destroying a Russian TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" system 25km behind the line of contact (Mar 31 video).
Bridge Destruction: OSUV Khortytsia confirmed destruction of RU heavy mechanized bridge during attempted Oskil River crossing near Dvorichna (Kharkiv Obl.) (Reported Mar 30).
GBU/JDAM Use: Video released allegedly showing use of GBU-39/B SDB and GBU-62 JDAM-ER (Mar 31).
Long-Range FPV Use: RU expert claims UA using FPVs with up to 40km range across the front (Mar 29).
Strikes on RU Territory: Belgorod Governor confirmed UA shelling/UAV strikes damaging farm, garage, buildings, vehicles in Nadezhevka, Ivanovskaya Lisitsa, Golovchino, Beryozovka (Belgorod RU) (Mar 30). UA AF confirmed strike on Pohar border point (Bryansk) destroying infrastructure/comms/EW (Mar 27, claimed 15-40 RU KIA). Independent sources confirm damage to MAPP Pohar building and one "Akhmat" fighter wounded (H. Didiev) from Mar 27 strike (ASTRA, Mar 31). RU sources claim attempted UA F-16 strikes in Kursk/Belgorod area (Mar 31). RU MoD claims UA attacks on energy infrastructure in Belgorod/Kursk (Mar 29/31).
RU Claims of UA Strikes: Missile strike alleged on Lysychansk building (4 injured, Mar 28); strikes on Aleshki hospital (damage, no casualties, Mar 28); drone attack on civilian vehicles in Golovchino (Belgorod, Mar 28). UAV strike hit RU state media crew in Horlivka (2 contused, Mar 30).
Tactical Drone Strikes: UA Signum unit (53rd OMBr) reported destroying a RU BMP with two FPV drones in Luhansk Oblast (Mar 31).
NATO ISR: UK RC-135W Rivet Joint SIGINT aircraft observed patrolling over the Black Sea near Romania, escorted by 2x Eurofighter Typhoons (Mar 31).
Naval Threat (Mar 29 Data): 2 Kalibr carriers (8 missiles) in Black Sea, 3 carriers (26 missiles) in Mediterranean Sea.
IV. Ground Combat Operations by Direction (Mar 30-31 Reports)
Kursk/Belgorod Border Area: Intense fighting. UA repelled 21 RU assaults (past 24h, UGS Mar 31). UGS reported 9 clashes on Mar 28 (3 ongoing). RU claims initiative, control of half of Huyevo, capture of Hoholivka (claimed cleared by 137th VDV Regt), clearing towards Sudzha. RU MoD claims hitting UA Mech Bde, 2x Air Assault Bdes, TDF Bde near Gornal, Guyevo, Oleshnya; claims repelled 1 UA counter-attack. RU MoD claims UA lost >190 personnel, 1 Tank, 1 APC, 3 AFVs, 5 vehicles, 2 arty, 1 mortar, 3 UAV CPs, 1 ammo depot (past 24h Mar 31), >160 (past 24h Mar 30). RU MoD reports 2 UA POWs captured. RU MoD issues cumulative claimed UA losses for Kursk direction since start of hostilities: >71,240 troops, 403 tanks, 329 IFVs, 291 APCs, 2,238 AFVs, 592 arty, 53 MLRS (Verification Required/Likely Inflated). Heavy RU air/arty/drone use; FAB-3000 use claimed. UA SSO captured RU soldiers. UA DShV reported successful defense near Makhnovka. RU forces conducting demining operations in Sudzha district (Mar 31). RU RKhBZ troops operate specialized drone modification/repair lab in underground bunker (Mar 31).
Pokrovsk Direction:Highest Intensity. UA stopped 73 RU attacks (past 24h, UGS Mar 31). UGS reported 50 RU attacks on Mar 28 (12 ongoing then), and 43 attempts by afternoon Mar 30 (31 stopped). RU confirmed capture Zaporizhzhia settlement (Donetsk). RU claims approaching Novooleksandrivka. CinC Syrskyi noted situation partially stabilized due to UA actions (Mar 31). UA destroyed 2 RU tanks via FPV (Mar 30).
Toretsk Direction:High Intensity. UA stopped 17 RU attacks (past 24h, UGS Mar 31). UGS reported 17 RU attacks on Mar 28 (4 ongoing then), 9 attacks by afternoon Mar 30 (2 ongoing then). UA confirmed RU advance near Panteleimonivka. RU claims expanding control E of Panteleimonivka (village secured), reaching outskirts of Valentynivka, fighting for Tarasivka. UA "Predators" drone unit active (Mar 30).
Lyman Direction:High Intensity. UA stopped 16 RU attacks (past 24h, UGS Mar 31). UGS reported 9 RU attacks on Mar 28 (6 ongoing then), 11 attacks by afternoon Mar 30 (6 ongoing then). UA confirmed RU advance near Novoie. RU forces reported approaching Krasnyi Lyman again (RU claim).
Novopavlivsk Direction: Significant Activity. UA stopped 11 RU attacks (past 24h, UGS Mar 31). UGS reported 12 RU attacks on Mar 28 (4 ongoing then), 8 attacks by afternoon Mar 30 (4 ongoing then). UA confirmed RU advance in Rozlyv. RU claims entering/liberating parts of Rozlyv, liberating Preobrazhenka, fighting for Bohdanivka/Troitske, advances near Kotlyarivka & Novoselka. RU sources claim clearing territory West of Rozovka (Alexandropol) (Mar 31). Gradual advance towards Dnipropetrovsk border claimed (Mar 30). RU forces reported attempting assaults near Vuhledar exploiting adverse weather (Mar 31).
Chasiv Yar Area (Kramatorsk Direction): RU sources claim UA 24th Brigade attempted counter-attack/evacuation near Chasiv Yar morning Mar 31, allegedly stopped by mines/fire from RU 98th VDV Div, resulting in losses of 5 armored vehicles (incl. M113) and personnel. (RU claim - Verification Required).
Luhansk Oblast: Heavy fighting continues despite RU claims of full control. UA 53rd OMBr drone unit active, destroying RU BMP (Mar 31).
Kupyansk Direction: Activity persists. UA previously repelled large RU mechanized assault near Lozova (Mar 27). RU claims capture of Krasne Pershe persist (Mar 28).
Orikhiv Direction: Activity reported. RU MoD previously claimed liberation of Shcherbaky (Mar 29/30).
Kherson Direction (Left Bank): Positional fighting reported (Mar 28).
V. Russian Activities & Developments
Tactics & Equipment: Continued reliance on FPV/recon drones. Reports indicate efforts to overcome UA EW (e.g., Vega unit claim Mar 31). Use of UGVs ("Krot") for striking fortifications claimed (Mar 31). Adaptation seen with cage armor ("cope cages") on vehicles, including named tanks dedicated to fallen soldiers (e.g., BARS-13 fighter KIA Bakhmut). Ongoing efforts by volunteer groups/charitable foundations to supply forces with drones, vehicles, EW, and specialized equipment like armor kits noted (Mar 28/31). Establishment of specialized drone modification/repair labs within units (e.g., RKhBZ in Kursk, Mar 31).
Morale/Propaganda: Naming vehicles after fallen soldiers used for morale. Dissemination of combat footage claiming successes (e.g., Chasiv Yar, Hoholivka). Emphasis on narratives of repelling UA "invasions" (Kursk). Highlighting alleged internal instability/potential civil war in Ukraine. Continued promotion of narratives blaming West (UK/France) for attacks on RU territory (Sudzha). Circulation of historical narratives (e.g., Rzhev battle) likely for patriotic mobilization.
Losses: UA reports list of recently eliminated RU officers including Captains, Sr. Lieutenants, Lieutenants (incl. Spetsnaz), Jr. Lieutenant (Mar 31).
Internal Security/Politics: Continued detentions/prosecutions related to anti-war sentiment or support for Ukraine reported in occupied Crimea (Mar 31) and Russia proper (Mar 31). Meeting between Putin and new Roscosmos head focusing on national space program, including satellite capabilities (Mar 31). Russian General Prosecutor's Office reportedly requests suspension of ban on Taliban movement (Mar 31).
