Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 31, 2025, 11:15 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH, particularly on the Pokrovsk Direction. Significant activity persists on the Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and Kursk/Belgorod border directions. Intensity reported slightly lower on Mar 30 compared to the previous day.
Russian Main Efforts: The primary offensive axis remains towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure continues towards Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and the Chasiv Yar area. Efforts persist to consolidate control and advance within the Kursk border area and potentially expand operations into Sumy Oblast. Multi-axis advances continue in Donetsk Oblast.
Ukrainian Defensive Posture & Developments:
Forces maintain defensive lines, repelling numerous assaults, notably 73 Russian attacks on the Pokrovsk direction (24h preceding 06:00 UTC Mar 31).
Active defense and counter-actions continue within Russian border territory (Kursk/Belgorod Oblasts), with 21 Russian attacks stopped in the Kursk operational zone (UGS, past 24h). Ukrainian SSO units reportedly captured Russian personnel in Kursk Oblast.
President Zelenskyy previously confirmed (Mar 29) active Ukrainian operations on Russian territory are hindering potential RU offensives towards Sumy/Kharkiv.
Training Impact & Reduced Losses: Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reported a reduction in Ukrainian losses during March, attributing it to an updated and extended (1.5 months) basic combat training program and mandatory adaptation periods for new personnel within combat brigades.
Operational Tempo (UA): Since early March, Ukrainian artillery has conducted approximately 100,000 fire missions, and UAV operators have performed over 81,700 combat/special tasks, including 158 engagements using DeepStrike capabilities (CinC Syrskyi, Mar 31). Commander Syrskyi emphasized stabilizing the situation on threatened directions, particularly Pokrovsk, and applying active defense tactics, leading to regaining some positions on certain front sections.
Environmental Factors: Poor road conditions due to mud near the Line of Contact (LoC) continue to restrict vehicle mobility (Mar 29). Recent dust storms may have impacted air operations (Mar 29).
II. Territorial Changes & Control (Recent - Primarily RU Claims unless specified)
Kursk Oblast:
RU MoD confirmed capture of Hoholivka (Mar 31).
RU sources claim control of half of Huyevo (Mar 31) and that Sudzha town is "liberated" (Mar 30). Control claimed over northern Uspenivka (Mar 30).
Pokrovsk Direction (Donetsk):
RU MoD confirmed liberation of Zaporizhzhia settlement (Mar 31).
RU sources claim approaching Novooleksandrivka and advances near Kotlyarivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka (Mar 31).
UA previously confirmed incremental RU advance near Katerynivka (Mar 27).
Toretsk Direction (Donetsk):
UA Confirmation: Russian advance near Panteleimonivka (Mar 30).
RU sources claim reaching outskirts of Valentynivka and fighting for Tarasivka. RU sources claim full control of Panteleimonivka village achieved (Mar 31). RU MoD previously claimed Panteleimonivka captured (Mar 29).
Lyman Direction:
UA Confirmation: Russian advance near Novoie (Mar 30).
RU source claims front reported approaching Krasnyi Lyman again (Mar 31). Terny previously assessed as largely RU-occupied.
Novopavlivsk/Andriivske Directions (Donetsk):
UA Confirmation: Russian advance in Rozlyv (Mar 30).
RU claims entering/liberating parts of Rozlyv, liberating Preobrazhenka, fighting for Bohdanivka/Troitske, advances near Kotlyarivka & Novoselka. RU sources claim clearing territory West of Rozovka (Alexandropol) (Mar 31).
Kupyansk Direction (Kharkiv):
RU claims advances near Kondrashivka, expanding bridgehead N of Kupyansk, new positions W of Orlyanske, and capture of Krasne Pershe (Mar 29/30).
UA previously confirmed RU advance near Orlyanske (Mar 27).
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia):
RU MoD claimed liberation of Shcherbaky (Mar 29/30). RU claims advances near Dolynka–Shcherbaky and Piatykhatky–Stepove axes.
ISW confirmed RU advances north of Zherebyanky (Mar 29).
Sumy Border:
RU claimed capture of Veselovka (Mar 29, requires verification).
Missiles:2 Iskander-M launched from Kursk (reportedly targeting Sumy, NOT intercepted). Ballistic missile strike on Shostka (Sumy Oblast) (Mar 30 night). RU MoD claims Iskander strike on NGU positions/equipment in Ivot (Sumy) destroying vehicles and personnel. RU MoD claims strikes hit military airfield, UAV production/launch sites, ammo depots. RU claims strike destroyed warehouse/vehicles supplying UA 5th Assault Brigade in Dobropillya (Donetsk) (Mar 31).
UAVs:131 Shahed UAVs + 45 decoy drones launched overnight Mar 30/31; 57 Shaheds destroyed. Impacts in Sumy, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr Oblasts. Kharkiv City impact: 6 UAVs attacked, 5 impacts (Kyivskyi district), 3 civilians injured, damage to civilian infrastructure. RU employed 2,620 kamikaze drones (UGS, 24h to 06:00 UTC Mar 31).
Aviation/KABs: Russia conducted 116 aviation strikes (223 KABs) on Ukraine proper + 20 air strikes (31 KABs) in Kursk ops zone (UGS, 24h to 06:00 UTC Mar 31). Persistent heavy KAB use continues (e.g., 135 KABs reported Mar 29). Use of FAB-3000 bombs claimed in Kursk/Belgorod border area. 15 KABs hit Kupyansk hromada (past day), damaging building (4 WIA).
Artillery/MLRS: Over 5,300 shelling attacks (130 MLRS) reported (UGS, 24h to 06:00 UTC Mar 31). MLRS strike on Kupyansk (Kharkiv Oblast), 2 civilians wounded (Mar 31 morning).
Energy Infrastructure: RU MoD confirms UA strikes (artillery, UAV) on energy facilities in Bryansk Oblast (Suzemka, Sevsk districts) on Mar 30, causing temporary power outages (since restored). Threat to Ukrainian energy infrastructure remains high (Mar 29).
Ukrainian Air Defense / Counter-Drone:
57/131 Shaheds destroyed overnight Mar 30/31.
Ongoing efforts to strengthen AD/EW in Zaporizhzhia direction.
UA Claims (Mar 31): Destruction of 3 RU recon UAVs (Supercam, 2x Zala) via FPV interceptors; destruction of RU Zala over Sumy; destruction of 51 RU UAVs over Belgorod Oblast (past 13 days). Soldier account highlights modifications to anti-drone rifles to counter FPV/Mavics.
GUR Experimental Anti-Drone System: Successful test interception of two Shaheds during Mar 29 night attack confirmed.
RU Claims: 66 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight (Bryansk, Kaluga, Kursk Oblasts). 150 UA UAVs and 5 JDAM bombs downed over 24h (RU MoD, Mar 31).
Ukrainian Air/Drone Strikes:
TOS-1A Destruction: Operators of 413th Separate Battalion of Unmanned Systems ("Raid") reported destroying a Russian TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" system 25km behind the line of contact (Mar 31 video).
GBU/JDAM Use: Video released allegedly showing use of GBU-39/B SDB and GBU-62 JDAM-ER (Mar 31).
Long-Range FPV Use: RU expert claims UA using FPVs with up to 40km range across the front (Mar 29).
Strikes on RU Territory: UA AF confirmed strike on Pohar border point (Bryansk) destroying infrastructure/comms/EW (Mar 27, claimed 15-40 RU KIA). RU sources claim attempted UA F-16 strikes in Kursk/Belgorod area (Mar 31). RU MoD continues to claim UA attacks on energy infrastructure in Belgorod/Kursk (Mar 29/31).
Naval Threat (Mar 29 Data): 2 Kalibr carriers (8 missiles) in Black Sea, 3 carriers (26 missiles) in Mediterranean Sea.
IV. Ground Combat Operations by Direction (Mar 31 Reports)
Kursk/Belgorod Border Area: Intense fighting. UA repelled 21 RU assaults (past 24h, UGS). RU claims initiative, control of half of Huyevo, capture of Hoholivka, clearing towards Sudzha. RU MoD claims UA lost >190 personnel (past 24h). Heavy RU air/arty/drone use; FAB-3000 use claimed. UA SSO captured RU soldiers. UA DShV reported successful defense near Makhnovka. RU forces conducting demining operations in Sudzha district (Mar 31). RU video shows fiber-optic drone (VT-40) conducting BDA over Kursk area, claiming to show destroyed UA equipment from Feb 2025.
Pokrovsk Direction:Highest Intensity. UA stopped 73 RU attacks (past 24h, UGS). RU confirmed capture Zaporizhzhia settlement (Donetsk). RU claims approaching Novooleksandrivka. CinC Syrskyi noted situation partially stabilized on this direction due to UA actions.
Toretsk Direction:High Intensity. UA stopped 17 RU attacks (past 24h, UGS). UA confirmed RU advance near Panteleimonivka. RU claims expanding control E of Panteleimonivka (village secured), reaching outskirts of Valentynivka, fighting for Tarasivka.
Lyman Direction:High Intensity. UA stopped 16 RU attacks (past 24h, UGS). UA confirmed RU advance near Novoie. RU forces reported approaching Krasnyi Lyman again (RU claim).
Novopavlivsk Direction: Significant Activity. UA stopped 11 RU attacks (past 24h, UGS). UA confirmed RU advance in Rozlyv. RU claims advancing into Razliv center.
Kupyansk Direction: UA stopped 6 RU attacks (past 24h, UGS). MLRS strike on Kupyansk city (2 WIA). UA destroyed RU pontoon bridge attempt near Dvorichna (Mar 28). RU claims advances near Kondrashivka. Heavy KAB strikes reported on Kupyansk hromada (4 WIA).
Kharkiv Direction: UA stopped 4 RU attacks near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Krasne Pershe (past 24h, UGS). Overnight Shahed attack on Kharkiv city (3 WIA, damage).
Siversk Direction: UA stopped 5 RU attacks (past 24h, UGS).
Artemovsk (Bakhmut) / Chasiv Yar Direction: RU sources claim drone strikes (including captured/repaired UA drones) on UA positions (Mar 31). RU forces continue pressure near Chasiv Yar (Mar 28/29 reports). RU video claims destruction of abandoned UA armored vehicle W of Mykolaivka (Mar 31).
South Donetsk Direction: RU source claims destruction of UA T-80BV tank via FPV drone (Mar 31).
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): Positional fighting continues. 2 unsuccessful RU assaults reported (Mar 29).
V. Capabilities, Technology & Tactics
Russian: Continued heavy use of KABs, Shaheds, FPV drones. Use of FAB-3000 and fiber-optic guided drones ("Gortenzia", VT-40) claimed/observed. Development of personal anti-drone cages ("mangal") and use of fishing nets against FPVs noted. Volunteer groups providing add-on armor for vehicles. Claimed use of captured/repaired UA drones. Details emerging on structured soldier training system (variable duration, psychological screening, integration focus). EW systems like "Pokrov" supplied via crowdfunding.
Ukrainian: Demonstrated use of GBU-39/62 alleged. Effective FPV drone use continues (interceptors, strikes on high-value targets like TOS-1A). Counter-drone capabilities being adapted locally (e.g., modifying anti-drone rifles). Significant training improvements reported (longer basic training, adaptation periods) leading to claimed reduction in March losses (Syrskyi). High operational tempo of artillery and drones reported (Syrskyi). Increased need for fiber-optic drones resistant to RU EW highlighted (Syrskyi).
Tactical Markings: RU sources claim observation of new Ukrainian tactical markings (squares with arrows/crosses) linked to Operational Tactical Groupings, speculating potential counter-attack preparations.
VI. Reported Losses & War Crimes
Russian MoD Claims (Past 24h): Claimed UA losses: >190 (Kursk), up to 70 (Kharkiv), >200 (Kupyansk), up to 275 (Yug), up to 420 (Tsentr), >160 (Vostok), up to 50 (Dnepr). Claimed interception of 5 JDAMs, 150 UA UAVs. Specific claims: Destruction of UA T-80BV (S. Donetsk); NGU losses in Ivot (Sumy); warehouse/vehicles in Dobropillya.
Ukrainian Claims/Observations: UA destroys RU TOS-1A 25km from LBS (Mar 31). UA repelled 73 RU attacks (Pokrovsk), 21 (Kursk), 17 (Toretsk), 16 (Lyman), 11 (Novopavlivsk), 6 (Kupyansk), 4 (Kharkiv), 5 (Siversk) in past 24h (UGS). UA SSO captured RU personnel (Kursk). UA destroyed RU pontoon attempt (Kupyansk, Mar 28). Significant RU losses previously claimed on Pokrovsk (Mar 29) and Luhansk OTU (Mar 29) directions.
War Crimes Allegations: Ukraine accuses two Russian Generals (Chief of Staff & Chief of Missile/Artillery, Western Grouping) of ordering the Aug 19, 2023 Iskander strike on Chernihiv center (7 KIA, 193 WIA). Previous UGS accusation (Mar 29) of war crime for Shahed strike on Kharkiv Military Hospital.
VII. Logistics & Morale
Russian: Structured training pipeline for contract soldiers emphasized (Yevkurov). Crowdfunding efforts for equipment (EW, ATVs, drones) continue. Basic soldier living conditions depicted in RU media. Alleged use of captured UA drones suggests resourcefulness or supply issues.
Ukrainian: Improved training reported to reduce losses and enhance readiness (Syrskyi). Innovation under pressure noted (e.g., counter-drone rifle mods). Digitalization of Military-Medical Commission conclusions ongoing. Law passed ensuring captivity period counts towards civilian insurance records. RU sources highlight alleged low trust in UA recruitment centers (TCCs) as part of info ops.
VIII. Political & Information Environment
International: French court verdict confirms Marine Le Pen guilty of misusing EU funds, bans her from holding office for 5 years (potential impact on 2027 election & future RU relations). Kremlin comments on verdict, denies concrete US-RU project agreements, states Putin open to Trump contact. Report suggests potential EU retaliation against US tariffs (El Pais). European discussions on Ukraine support reportedly shifting focus from ground troops to air/sea presence (WashPost Mar 29). EU parliamentary representatives arrive in Kyiv (Mar 31).
Information Warfare: RU continues narratives accusing Ukraine of violating agreements by striking energy infrastructure (Bryansk); highlights alleged UA mobilization problems and low trust in TCCs. UA highlights RU propaganda inconsistencies (Kursk church report) and efforts to improve training/reduce losses. RU sources amplify claims of new UA tactical markings potentially indicating offensive preparations. Moscow Metro website reportedly defaced with message from Ukrainian Railways (Mar 31). RU promotes narratives about US-UA resource deal conflicts.
