Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 31, 2025, 10:45 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. The Pokrovsk Direction continues to be the most contested sector (73 Russian attacks repelled in 24h preceding 06:00 UTC Mar 31). Significant activity persists on the Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and Kursk/Belgorod border directions. Intensity reported as lower on Mar 30 (147 clashes by 19:00 UTC) compared to the previous day (223 clashes).
Russian Main Efforts: The primary offensive axis remains towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure is maintained towards Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and the Chasiv Yar area. Efforts persist to expand operations into Sumy Oblast and conduct multi-axis advances in Donetsk Oblast. Operations focus on consolidating control and advancing within the Kursk border area.
Ukrainian Defensive Posture & Developments:
Forces maintain defensive lines, repelling numerous assaults, particularly thwarting large-scale efforts on the Pokrovsk direction.
Active defense and counter-actions continue within Russian border territory (Kursk/Belgorod Oblasts), with 21 Russian attacks stopped in the Kursk operational zone (UGS, past 24h). Ukrainian SSO units reportedly captured Russian personnel in Kursk Oblast.
President Zelenskyy previously confirmed active Ukrainian operations on Russian territory are hindering potential RU offensives towards Sumy/Kharkiv (Mar 29).
Training Impact: Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reported a reduction in Ukrainian losses during March, attributed to an updated and extended (1.5 months) basic combat training program and the implementation of mandatory adaptation periods for new personnel within combat brigades.
Operational Tempo (UA): Since early March, Ukrainian artillery has conducted approx. 100,000 fire missions, and UAV operators have performed over 81,700 combat/special tasks, including 158 engagements using DeepStrike capabilities (CinC Syrskyi).
II. Territorial Changes & Control (Recent)
Kursk Oblast (RU Claims/Confirmations):
RU MoD confirmed capture of Hoholivka (Mar 31).
RU sources claim control of half of Huyevo (TASS, Mar 31) and that Sudzha town is "liberated" (Mar 30).
RU sources claim control of northern Uspenivka (Sudzha area, Mar 30).
Pokrovsk Direction (Donetsk):
RU MoD confirmed liberation of Zaporizhzhia settlement (Mar 31).
RU sources claim approaching Novooleksandrivka and advances near Kotlyarivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka.
UA previously confirmed incremental RU advance near Katerynivka (Mar 27).
Toretsk Direction (Donetsk):
UA Confirmation: Russian advance near Panteleimonivka (Mar 30).
RU sources claim reaching outskirts of Valentynivka and fighting for Tarasivka. RU sources claim full control of Panteleimonivka village achieved (Mar 31).
RU MoD previously claimed Panteleimonivka captured (Mar 29).
Lyman Direction:
UA Confirmation: Russian advance near Novoie (Mar 30).
Terny previously assessed as largely RU-occupied. Front reported approaching Krasnyi Lyman again (RU source, Mar 31).
Novopavlivsk/Andriivske Directions (Donetsk):
UA Confirmation: Russian advance in Rozlyv (Mar 30).
RU claims entering/liberating parts of Rozlyv, liberating Preobrazhenka, fighting for Bohdanivka/Troitske, advances near Kotlyarivka & Novoselka. RU sources claim clearing territory West of Rozovka (Alexandropol) (Mar 31).
Kupyansk Direction (Kharkiv):
RU claims advances near Kondrashivka, expanding bridgehead N of Kupyansk, new positions W of Orlyanske, and capture of Krasne Pershe (Mar 29/30).
UA previously confirmed RU advance near Orlyanske (Mar 27).
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia):
RU claims liberation of Shcherbaky (Mar 30), advances near Dolynka–Shcherbaky and Piatykhatky–Stepove axes.
ISW confirmed RU advances north of Zherebyanky (Mar 29).
Sumy Border:
RU claimed capture of Veselovka (Mar 29, requires verification).
Missiles:2 Iskander-M launched from Kursk (reportedly targeting Sumy, NOT intercepted). Ballistic missile strike on Shostka (Sumy Oblast) (Mar 30 night). RU claims Iskander strike on NGU positions/equipment in Ivot (Sumy) destroying Kozak vehicles, an M1097 Avenger, and killing/wounding personnel. RU MoD claims strikes hit military airfield, UAV production/launch sites, ammo depots. RU claims strike destroyed warehouse/vehicles supplying UA 5th Assault Brigade in Dobropillya (Donetsk).
UAVs:131 Shahed UAVs + 45 decoy drones launched overnight Mar 30/31; 57 Shaheds destroyed. Impacts in Sumy, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr Oblasts. Kharkiv City impact: 6 UAVs attacked, 5 impacts (Kyivskyi district), 3 civilians injured, damage to science/production facility, residential, kindergartens. RU employed 2,620 kamikaze drones (UGS, 24h to 06:00 UTC Mar 31).
Aviation/KABs: Russia conducted 116 aviation strikes (223 KABs) on Ukraine proper + 20 air strikes (31 KABs) in Kursk ops zone (UGS, 24h to 06:00 UTC Mar 31). Use of FAB-3000 bombs claimed in Kursk/Belgorod border area. 15 KABs hit Kupyansk hromada (past day), damaging 5-story building (4 WIA).
Artillery/MLRS: Over 5,300 shelling attacks (130 MLRS) reported (UGS, 24h to 06:00 UTC Mar 31). MLRS strike on Kupyansk (Kharkiv Oblast), 2 civilians wounded (Mar 31 morning).
Energy Infrastructure: RU MoD confirms UA strikes (artillery, UAV) on energy facilities in Bryansk Oblast (Suzemka, Sevsk districts) on Mar 30, causing power outages (since restored). RU sources continue to frame these as violations of alleged agreements.
Ukrainian Air Defense / Counter-Drone:
Ongoing efforts to strengthen AD/EW in Zaporizhzhia direction.
UA Claims (Mar 31): Destruction of 3 RU recon UAVs (Supercam, 2x Zala) via FPV interceptors; destruction of RU Zala over Sumy; destruction of 51 RU UAVs over Belgorod Oblast (past 13 days). Soldier account highlights modifications to anti-drone rifles to counter FPV/Mavics.
RU Claims: 66 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight (Bryansk, Kaluga, Kursk Oblasts). 150 UA UAVs and 5 JDAM bombs downed over 24h (RU MoD, Mar 31).
Ukrainian Air Strikes: Video released allegedly showing use of GBU-39/B SDB and GBU-62 JDAM-ER. RU sources claim attempted UA F-16 strikes in Kursk/Belgorod border area.
Naval Threat (Mar 29 Data): 2 Kalibr carriers (8 missiles) in Black Sea, 3 carriers (26 missiles) in Mediterranean Sea.
IV. Ground Combat Operations by Direction (Based on Mar 31 Reports)
Kursk/Belgorod Border Area: Intense fighting. UA repelled 21 RU assaults (past 24h). RU claims initiative (Krasnoyaruzhsky), control of half of Huyevo, capture of Hoholivka, clearing towards Sudzha. Heavy RU air/arty/drone use; FAB-3000 use claimed. UA SSO captured RU soldiers. UA DShV reported successful defense near Makhnovka. RU claims fiber-optic drone strike on UA dugout.
Toretsk Direction:High Intensity. UA stopped 17 RU attacks (past 24h). UA confirmed RU advance near Panteleimonivka. RU claims expanding control E of Panteleimonivka (village secured), reaching outskirts of Valentynivka, fighting for Tarasivka. RU claims UA attempts small group infiltrations into Dzerzhynsk (Zabalka microdistrict) repelled; alleges UA accumulating forces in Shcherbynivka.
Lyman Direction:High Intensity. UA stopped 16 RU attacks (past 24h). UA confirmed RU advance near Novoie. RU forces reported approaching Krasnyi Lyman again.
Novopavlivsk Direction: Significant Activity. UA stopped 11 RU attacks (past 24h). UA confirmed RU advance in Rozlyv. RU claims advancing into Razliv center. RU claims destroying UA mortar near Aleksandropol.
Kupyansk Direction: UA stopped 6 RU attacks (past 24h). MLRS strike on Kupyansk city (2 WIA). UA destroyed RU pontoon bridge attempt near Dvorichna. RU claims advances near Kondrashivka. Heavy KAB strikes reported on Kupyansk hromada (4 WIA).
Kharkiv Direction: UA stopped 4 RU attacks near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Krasne Pershe (past 24h). Overnight Shahed attack on Kharkiv city (3 WIA, damage).
Siversk Direction: UA stopped 5 RU attacks (past 24h).
Artemovsk (Bakhmut) Direction: RU sources claim drone strikes (including captured/repaired UA drones) on UA positions.
South Donetsk Direction: RU source claims destruction of UA T-80BV tank via FPV drone.
V. Capabilities, Technology & Training
Russian: Continued heavy use of KABs, Shaheds, FPV drones. Use of FAB-3000 and fiber-optic guided drones ("Gortenzia", and other types in Kursk) claimed. Development of personal anti-drone cages ("mangal") noted. Volunteer groups providing add-on armor for vehicles (e.g., Grad MRLS). Claimed use of captured/repaired UA drones. Details emerging on soldier training system (variable duration based on experience, leader ID, psychological screening, integration focus).
Ukrainian: Demonstrated use of GBU-39/62 alleged. Effective FPV drone use continues (interceptors, strikes on infrastructure/tanks). Counter-drone capabilities being adapted locally (e.g., modifying anti-drone rifles). Significant training improvements reported (longer basic training, adaptation periods) leading to claimed reduction in March losses (Syrskyi). High operational tempo of artillery and drones reported (Syrskyi).
Tactical Markings: RU sources claim observation of new Ukrainian tactical markings (squares with arrows/crosses) linked to Operational Tactical Groupings (Kharkiv, Starobilsk, Luhansk, Donetsk), speculating potential counter-attack preparations, possibly near Chasiv Yar or elsewhere in DNR.
VI. Reported Losses (RU MoD Claims - Past 24h)
Air Defense: 5 JDAM guided bombs, 150 Ukrainian UAVs intercepted.
Personnel/Equipment (Aggregated UA losses per Grouping):
"Center" (e.g., Pokrovsk): >420 personnel.
"South" (e.g., Donetsk S.): Up to 275 personnel.
"West" (e.g., Kupyansk): >200 personnel.
"East" (e.g., S. Donetsk): >160 personnel, 1 tank.
"North" (Belgorod/Kharkiv border): Up to 70 personnel.
"Dnepr" (Kherson): Up to 50 personnel.
Specific Claims (RU Sources): Destruction of UA T-80BV (S. Donetsk); NGU losses in Ivot (Sumy); warehouse/vehicles in Dobropillya.
VII. Logistics & Morale
Russian: Previous reports indicated potential morale/logistics issues in specific units (POW testimony). Images released showing basic conditions of soldier life ("Budni soldata"). Focus on structured training pipeline for contract soldiers highlighted (Yevkurov).
Ukrainian: Digitalization of Military-Medical Commission conclusions ongoing. Improved training reported to reduce losses and enhance readiness. Account of soldier adapting counter-drone gear highlights innovation under pressure. Aid distribution programs (e.g., Kryvyi Rih) support civilian resilience. RU sources highlight alleged low trust in UA recruitment centers (TCCs).
VIII. Political & Information Environment
Political: French court verdict confirms Marine Le Pen guilty of misusing EU funds, bans her from holding office, potentially removing her from 2027 presidential race (relevant due to her past pro-RU positions). Kremlin (Peskov) comments on verdict, denies concrete US-RU project agreements, states Putin open to Trump contact. Report (El Pais) suggests potential EU retaliation against US tariffs, risking major trade dispute. European discussions on Ukraine support reportedly shifting focus from ground troops to air/sea presence (WashPost).
Information Warfare: RU continues narratives accusing Ukraine of violating agreements by striking energy infrastructure (Bryansk); highlights alleged UA mobilization problems. UA highlights RU propaganda inconsistencies (Kursk church report) and efforts to improve training/reduce losses. RU sources amplify claims of new UA tactical markings potentially indicating offensive preparations.
