Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 31, 2025, 10:15 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. 171 combat engagements reported in the 24 hours preceding 06:00 UTC Mar 31 (UGS). The Pokrovsk Direction remains the most contested sector, with Ukrainian forces repelling 73 Russian attacks. Significant activity persists on the Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and Kursk/Belgorod border directions. Intensity reported as lower on Mar 30 (147 clashes by 19:00 UTC) compared to the previous day.
Russian Main Efforts: The primary offensive axis continues towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure is maintained towards Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and the Chasiv Yar area. Efforts persist to expand operations into Sumy Oblast and conduct multi-axis advances in Donetsk Oblast. Operations focus on consolidating control and advancing within the Kursk border area, particularly near Oleshnia, Huyevo, Popovka, Demydovka, and Sudzha. Russian sources claim seizing initiative in the Krasnoyaruzhsky (Belgorod) direction and controlling half of Huyevo (Kursk).
Ukrainian Defensive Posture: Ukrainian forces maintain defensive lines, repelling numerous assaults, particularly thwarting large-scale efforts on the Pokrovsk direction. Active defense and counter-actions continue within Russian border territory (Kursk/Belgorod Oblasts), with 21 Russian attacks stopped in the Kursk operational zone (UGS, past 24h). Reinforcement of positions along the Kursk/Sumy border is noted. Ukrainian SSO units reportedly captured Russian personnel in Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian DShV units report successful defensive actions and complex logistics operations under fire near Makhnovka (Kursk Oblast). President Zelenskyy confirmed active Ukrainian operations on Russian territory are hindering potential RU offensives towards Sumy/Kharkiv (Mar 29).
Kharkiv Operational Zone (OTU Kharkiv, past 24h to 09:00 UTC Mar 31): Situation remains complex. 4 Russian attacks repelled near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Krasne Pershe. RU forces conducted 4 air strikes (10 KABs), used 82 kamikaze drones, and executed 670 shelling attacks. Significant RU losses reported (56 personnel, 2 arty, 8 veh, 7 spec equip, 48 UAVs). Ukrainian forces destroyed 79 RU shelters, 1 fuel storage, 2 ammo storage.
Territorial Changes & Claims (Recent):
Kursk: RU MoD confirmed capture of Hoholivka (Mar 31). RU sources claim control of half of Huyevo (TASS, Mar 31) and that Sudzha town is "liberated" (Mar 30). RU sources claim control of northern Uspenivka (Mar 30).
Pokrovsk: RU MoD confirmed liberation of Zaporizhzhia settlement (Donetsk) (Mar 31). RU sources claim approaching Novooleksandrivka and advances near Kotlyarivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka. UA previously confirmed RU advance near Katerynivka (Mar 27).
Toretsk: UA confirmed RU advance near Panteleimonivka (Mar 30). RU sources claim reaching outskirts of Valentynivka and fighting for Tarasivka. RU MoD previously claimed Panteleimonivka captured (Mar 29).
Lyman: UA confirmed RU advance near Novoie (Mar 30). Terny previously assessed as largely RU-occupied.
Novopavlivsk/Andriivske (Kurakhove area): UA confirmed RU advance in Rozlyv (Mar 30). RU claims entering/liberating parts of Rozlyv, liberating Preobrazhenka, fighting for Bohdanivka/Troitske, advances near Kotlyarivka & Novoselka.
Kupyansk: RU claims advances near Kondrashivka, expanding bridgehead N of Kupyansk, new positions W of Orlyanske, and capture of Krasne Pershe (right bank Oskil, Mar 29). UA previously confirmed RU advance near Orlyanske (Mar 27).
Orikhiv: RU claims liberation of Shcherbaky (Mar 30 morning), advances near Dolynka–Shcherbaky and Piatykhatky–Stepove axes. ISW confirmed RU advances north of Zherebyanky (Mar 29).
Air Threat Warnings: Active alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (excluding city) as of 09:24 UTC Mar 31. Previous threat warning for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (07:58 UTC Mar 31).
Russian Strike Campaign (Overnight Mar 30/31 & Past 24h - UGS/UA AF):
Overnight:2 Iskander-M launched from Kursk (reportedly targeting Sumy, NOT intercepted). 131 Shahed UAVs + 45 decoy drones launched; 57 Shaheds destroyed. Impacts in Sumy, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr Oblasts.
Kharkiv City Impact (Overnight): 5 Shahed impacts (Kyivskyi district), 3 civilians injured, damage to industrial/residential/educational facilities.
Past 24 Hours (UGS): Russia conducted 2 missile strikes, 116 aviation strikes (223 KABs) on Ukraine proper + 20 air strikes (31 KABs) in Kursk ops zone, employed 2,620 kamikaze drones, and over 5,300 shelling attacks (130 MLRS).
Recent Strikes: MLRS strike on Kupyansk (Kharkiv Oblast), 2 civilians wounded (Mar 31 morning). Ballistic missile strike on Shostka (Sumy Oblast) (Mar 30 night).
Russian Strike Claims (RU Sources - Mar 30/31): Extensive claims of successful strikes targeting:
UAVs/Missiles: NGU positions/equipment in Ivot (Sumy); supply point in Dobropillya (Donetsk); UAV C2/Bn concentration in Druzhkivka (Donetsk); Ozerne Airfield (Zhytomyr) facilities/systems; dormitory in Sloviansk (Donetsk); repair shop/storage in Andriivka (Donetsk).
Other: Radar station near Petrushivka (Sumy); UAV control points (South Donetsk, unspecified); Mortar positions (Kursk/Belgorod border, unspecified); Tank near Novodanylivka (Zaporizhzhia); HMMWV vehicle (unspecified); Personnel/equipment in Kursk Oblast. Use of FAB-3000 bombs claimed in Kursk/Belgorod border area.
Ukrainian Air Defense / Counter-Drone:
Ongoing efforts to strengthen AD/EW in Zaporizhzhia direction.
UA Claims (Mar 31): Destruction of 3 RU recon UAVs (Supercam, 2x Zala) via FPV interceptors; destruction of RU Zala over Sumy; destruction of 51 RU UAVs over Belgorod Oblast (past 13 days).
Ukrainian Air Strikes: Video released allegedly showing use of GBU-39/B SDB and GBU-62 JDAM-ER. RU sources claim attempted UA F-16 strikes in Kursk/Belgorod border area.
Russian Munition Failures: Reports continue of accidental FAB drops on Russian/occupied territory (6 incidents Mar 25-28, total 41 bombs + 3 rockets since Jan 2025).
Naval Threat (Mar 29 Data): 2 Kalibr carriers (8 missiles) in Black Sea, 3 carriers (26 missiles) in Mediterranean Sea.
III. Ground Combat Operations by Direction (Based on Mar 31, 09:26 UTC Report & Previous Days)
Kursk/Belgorod Border Area: Intense fighting. RU claims initiative (Krasnoyaruzhsky), control of half of Huyevo. UA repelled 21 RU assaults (past 24h). Heavy RU air/arty/drone use; FAB-3000 use claimed. UA SSO captured RU soldiers. UA DShV reported successful defense near Makhnovka and complex logistics ops under fire. RU claims heavy fighting in Popovka, clearing Demydovka, capture Hoholivka, clearing towards Sudzha border crossing, fighting near Oleshnia, increased UA arty on Sudzha town.
Pokrovsk Direction:Highest Intensity. UA stopped 73 RU attacks (past 24h). RU confirmed capture Zaporizhzhia settlement (Donetsk). RU claims approaching Novooleksandrivka, fighting near Bohdanivka, advances S of Kotlyarivka, in Preobrazhenka, N of Andriivka. UA FPV strike on tank reported.
Toretsk Direction:High Intensity. UA stopped 17 RU attacks (past 24h). UA confirmed RU advance near Panteleimonivka (Mar 30). RU claims expanding control zone near Toretsk, reaching outskirts of Valentynivka, fighting for Tarasivka.
Lyman Direction:High Intensity. UA stopped 16 RU attacks (past 24h). UA confirmed RU advance near Novoie (Mar 30). RU claims advances near Nove.
Novopavlivsk Direction: Significant Activity. UA stopped 11 RU attacks (past 24h). UA confirmed RU advance in Rozlyv (Mar 30). RU claims advancing into Razliv center.
Kupyansk Direction: UA stopped 6 RU attacks (past 24h). MLRS strike on Kupyansk city (2 WIA). UA destroyed RU pontoon bridge attempt near Dvorichna. RU claims advances near Kondrashivka, expanded bridgeheads N of Kupyansk, new positions W of Orlyanske.
Kharkiv Direction: UA stopped 4 RU attacks near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Krasne Pershe (past 24h). Drone impact on civilian enterprise in Kharkiv city (night Mar 30/31).
