Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 31, 2025, 08:56 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. 171 combat engagements recorded over the past 24 hours (as of 06:00 UTC Mar 31, per UGS). The Pokrovsk Direction experiences the highest intensity, with Ukrainian forces stopping 73 Russian attacks. Significant activity persists on the Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and Kursk/Belgorod border directions.
Russian Main Efforts: The primary Russian offensive axis remains towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure continues towards Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and the Chasiv Yar area. Russian forces persist in efforts to expand operations into Sumy Oblast and conduct multi-axis advances in Donetsk Oblast. Operations continue to consolidate control and advance within the Kursk border area, particularly near Oleshnia, Huyevo, Popovka, and Demydovka. Russian sources claim initiative has been seized in the Krasnoyaruzhsky (Belgorod) direction (Poddubny).
Ukrainian Defensive Posture: Ukrainian forces maintain defensive lines, repelling numerous assaults and inflicting casualties, particularly thwarting the large-scale push on the Pokrovsk direction. Active defense and counter-actions continue within Russian border territory (Kursk/Belgorod Oblasts), with 21 Russian attacks stopped in the Kursk operational zone (UGS, past 24h). Reinforcement of positions along the Kursk/Sumy border is reported. Counter-battery fire and localized defensive actions are ongoing across the front. Efforts to enhance Air Defense, particularly Mobile Fire Groups and EW against drones, are noted in the Zaporizhzhia direction. Ukrainian SSO units reportedly captured Russian personnel in Kursk Oblast (Tsaplienko).
II. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Air Threat Warning: Threat of Russian aviation weapon deployment declared for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (UA Air Force, 07:58 UTC Mar 31).
Russian Strike Campaign (Overnight Mar 30/31 & Past 24h):
Overnight Summary (UA AF):
Missiles: 2 Iskander-M launched from Kursk Oblast (reportedly targeting Sumy Oblast, NOT intercepted).
UAVs: 131 Shahed-type UAVs launched from multiple directions, alongside 45 decoy drones. 57 Shaheds were destroyed by Ukrainian forces; decoy UAVs lost track.
Impacts reported in Sumy, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr Oblasts.
Past 24 Hours (UGS Report): Russia conducted 2 missile strikes, 116 aviation strikes (using 223 KABs on Ukraine proper + 20 air strikes using 31 KABs in Kursk ops zone), employed 2,620 kamikaze drones, and executed over 5,300 shelling attacks (130 MLRS). RU sources claim use of FAB-3000 bombs in the Kursk/Belgorod border area (Poddubny).
RU Claims (Mar 31 - Detailed Overnight Strikes via Colonelcassad/don_partizan):
Ivot, Sumy Oblast: 2 Iskander-M (1 cluster). Claimed hit on NGU mobile fire group positions; 2 Kozak-2M disabled, M1097 Avenger destroyed, 9 NGU KIA, ~7 WIA. Second strike outside settlement, possibly targeting mobile CP.
Dobropillya, Donetsk Oblast: 3 Geran-2 UAVs hit private enterprise used as temp. supply point for 5th Assault Bde. Claimed 4 vehicles destroyed (incl. Ford Transit, Iveco Daily), large fire.
Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast: Geran-2 hit UAV C2 point (56th Motorized Bde) & UAV Bn concentration (12th Bde). Claimed damage to modular HQ, 2 mobile UAV CPs, tech workshop; up to 9 KIA, 8 WIA; nav equipment partially destroyed.
Ozerne Airfield, Zhytomyr Oblast: 12 Geran-2 UAVs targeted airfield (39th Tac Av Bde). Claimed destruction of aircraft maintenance facility (MiG-29s), damage to C2 tower, comms/nav systems; Squadron 1 building severely damaged/on fire; at least 2 airfield vehicles destroyed.
Sloviansk, Donetsk Oblast: Geran-2 hit dormitory used by 54th Mech Bde. Claimed partial collapse, fire; 3 KIA, 5 WIA.
Andriivka, Donetsk Oblast: 2 Geran-2 hit VESCO plant buildings used as repair shop/storage for 53rd Mech Bde. Claimed hit on hangar repairing Western vehicles (HMMWV M1151, DAF CF 85) causing fuel detonation/roof collapse; hit on parts/tools warehouse. Claimed 4 repair personnel KIA, 6 WIA.
RU Claims (Other - Mar 31):
Missile strike destroyed a Ukrainian radar station (reported as ieMHR RADA) near Petrushivka, Sumy Oblast (RU MoD via TASS/RVvoenkor).
Artillery (305th Bde) destroyed a Ukrainian UAV control point on the South Donetsk direction (Voin DV).
"Geran" UAVs targeted a UA UAV control point (RVvoenkor).
"Rubikon" drone unit destroyed UA personnel/equipment in Kursk Oblast (RU MoD via TASS/RVvoenkor).
Drone unit ("OKHOTNIK", 51st Gds Army) destroyed a camouflaged UA mortar position (Narodnaya Militsiya DNR).
RU Drone strike destroyed UA tank near Novodanylivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Claim involves 417th, 1455th, 71st, 291st units) (Dnevnik Desantnika).
RU large UAV destroyed UA mortar position with precision missile in Kursk/Belgorod border area (Poddubny).
Ukrainian Air Defense / Counter-Drone:
Ongoing efforts to strengthen AD in Zaporizhzhia direction (Mobile Fire Groups, EW). (Zaporizhzhia OVA).
UA Claim (Mar 31): "Rarog" unit destroyed 3 Russian recon UAVs (Supercam, 2x Zala) using FPV interceptor drones (Sternenko).
UA Claim (Mar 31): "Vartovi" drone battalion destroyed RU Zala recon UAV over Sumy Oblast (Sternenko).
UA Claim (Mar 31): "Magyar" drone unit claims destruction of 51 Russian UAVs over "BNR" (likely Belgorod Oblast) in the past 13 days (Butusov Plus).
Ukrainian Air Strikes:
Video released allegedly showing Ukrainian fighters employing GBU-39/B SDB and GBU-62 JDAM-ER precision bombs against Russian positions (Tsaplienko, Mar 31).
RU sources claim attempted UA F-16 strikes in the Kursk/Belgorod border area (Poddubny).
Russian Munition Failures: Reports indicate continued incidents of Russian FAB bombs being accidentally dropped on Russian or occupied territory. 6 such incidents reported Mar 25-28. Total 41 bombs + 3 rockets reported dropped since Jan 2025. (ASTRA, Mar 31).
Naval Missile Threat (Mar 29 data): Russian Navy maintained 2 Kalibr carriers (up to 8 missiles) in the Black Sea and 3 Kalibr carriers (up to 26 missiles) in the Mediterranean Sea.
III. Ground Combat Operations by Direction
Kursk/Belgorod Border Area (Russian Territory):
Overall: Situation remains tense, particularly in the Krasnoyaruzhsky tactical direction. RU sources claim Russian forces have seized initiative (Poddubny). Ukrainian forces repelled 21 Russian assaults in the past day (UGS). RU forces conducted 20 air strikes (31 KABs) and 347 artillery strikes (5 MLRS) on UA positions/settlements in this zone (UGS). RU sources report intense RU/UA drone activity, artillery, and MLRS use. RU FAB-3000 use claimed (Poddubny).
Ukrainian Actions: 6th SOF Regiment ("Ranger") operators reportedly captured two Russian soldiers (Tsaplienko). Active defense continues. Logistical planning (evac, supplies) noted by RU sources for Popovka/Demidovka area (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
Russian Actions/Claims: Heavy fighting claimed in Popovka (RU claim: Arkhangel Spetsnaza/Starshie Eddy). Clearing operations claimed in Demydovka, hampered by UA drones; RU claims UA reinforced with 225th Assault Bn elements (Arkhangel Spetsnaza/Starshie Eddy). Rotation of UA 225th OSHP personnel claimed near Petrushivka (Arkhangel Spetsnaza). Capture of Hoholivka (Kursk) confirmed Mar 31 (RU MoD). Clearing operations claimed near Huyevo, reaching Sudzha border crossing (Rybar/Slivochny Kapriz). Heavy fighting claimed near Oleshnia (Dnevnik Desantnika/TASS). Fighting claimed near Basivka (Sumy) (Rybar). RU claims UA mining territory near Sudzha with NATO munitions during withdrawal (TASS). RU reports increased UA artillery fire on Sudzha town area (Arkhangel Spetsnaza). RU claims targeting UA forces with large UAV precision missile (Poddubny). RU sources report "drone ambushes" set by UA forces (drone waits in low power mode) (Poddubny).
Pokrovsk Direction (Donetsk Oblast): HIGHEST INTENSITY
Ukrainian forces stopped 73 Russian attacks in the past day (UGS).
Russian MoD confirmed liberation of Zaporizhzhia settlement (Donetsk) (Mar 31).
RU Claims: Russian forces approached Novooleksandrivka (Colonelcassad/divgen). Fighting near Bohdanivka, advancing towards Troitske. Advances claimed south of Kotlyarivka, in Preobrazhenka, and north of Andriivka (Slivochny Kapriz). UA reportedly established control zone near Kotlyno (Slivochny Kapriz).
Ukrainian forces successfully employed FPV drones against a Russian tank (30th Mech Bde, Butusov Plus).
Toretsk Direction (Donetsk Oblast): HIGH INTENSITY
Ukrainian forces stopped 17 Russian attacks in the past day (UGS).
RU Claims: Expansion of control zone near Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk); advance claimed near Druzhba (Colonelcassad/divgen). Forces reached outskirts of Valentynivka and fight for Tarasivka (Dva Mayora, Rybar). UA reportedly controls central Shcherbynivka (Slivochny Kapriz).
UA Source Report: Captured RU soldiers (9th Brigade) allegedly used as "bait" near Toretsk (Butusov Plus).
UA Confirmed RU advance near Panteleimonivka (Mar 30).
Lyman Direction (Donetsk/Luhansk Oblasts): HIGH INTENSITY
Ukrainian forces stopped 16 Russian attacks in the past day (UGS).
UA confirmed RU advance near Novoie (Mar 30).
RU Claims: "Krot" robotic ground complexes destroyed UA strongpoints near Yampil (RU MoD). Advances claimed near Nove (Slivochny Kapriz).
Novopavlivsk Direction (Donetsk Oblast): SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY
Ukrainian forces stopped 11 Russian attacks in the past day (UGS).
RU Claims: Forces advanced into the center of Razliv and fighting/advancing on flanks (Dva Mayora, WarGonzo, Rybar).
Kupyansk Direction (Kharkiv Oblast):
Ukrainian forces stopped 6 Russian attacks in the past day (UGS).
Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian pontoon bridge attempt (TMM bridge) over Oskil River near Dvorichna (Shef Hayabusa, Mar 31).
RU Claims: Advance claimed near Kondrashivka (Colonelcassad/divgen). Expansion of bridgeheads N of Kupyansk. New positions claimed west of Orlyanske (Dva Mayora, Rybar).
SBU Warning: Reports indicate Russian intelligence services (FSB) are attempting to recruit Ukrainian teenagers via social media for terrorist activities, potentially using them as suicide bombers. Incidents referenced in Ivano-Frankivsk, Odesa, and Rivne. SBU encourages reporting suspicious activity via chatbot. (Operatyvnyi ZSU / 1+1 report).
V. Other Developments
Alleged War Crimes/Vandalism (Crimea): Reports from RU sources claim vandalism/arson overnight Mar 30/31 at graves of RU war correspondent Alexander Fedorchak and three other RU soldiers in Nizhnegorsky, Crimea. Russian officials blame "hostile side" / "zhduny". Investigation initiated. (Kotsnews, Rybar, Dva Mayora, TASS).
Sanctions Evasion Scheme Alleged: InformNapalm/256 Cyber Assault Division allege Indian company (Park Controls & Communications) deceived French manufacturer (HGH) to procure sanctioned electro-optics (collimator) for Russian company (EMT), potentially for Krasnogorsk plant. Payments via Sberbank India alleged. Potential Israeli company (CI Systems) involvement mentioned. (ASTRA, Mar 31).
Russian Recruitment/Supply: FSB Border Directorate actively recruiting contract soldiers in Ingushetia (Dva Mayora). Crowdfunding appeals for equipment (drones, EW, radios, optics, generators, Starlink) for RU units (3rd Army near Bakhmut/Chasiv Yar/Siversk) continue (Colonelcassad). Crowdfunding reported successful for Starlink V3 for 337th Airborne Regt (104th Div) on Kherson direction (Filolog v zasade).
Reported Russian Unit Issues: Soldiers identifying as part of RU 110th Motor Rifle Brigade (w/ch 42600) released a video appeal claiming mistreatment (beatings, intimidation), lack of equipment (ammo, comms, maps), poor command decisions ("sent to certain death"), and being treated as "expendable." They request investigation by RU authorities. (Butusov Plus).
Historical Context (NYT Report): Claim US intel intercepted Surovikin proposing tactical nuclear weapon use in Oct 2022 to halt UA Kherson counteroffensive. (ASTRA/NYT).
Border Tensions (Armenia/Azerbaijan): Armenia reports AZ forces fired towards Khnatsakh village (Syunik) damaging house (Mar 31). Both sides deny opening fire Mar 30/31. (WarGonzo/Armenian MoD).
Internal Russian Issues: Concerns raised about potential formation of closed migrant enclaves promoting radicalism. (Novosti Moskvy/Grebenskin).
International Finance: Ukraine received approx. $400 million tranche from the IMF under the EFF program, bringing total support under this initiative to over $10 billion. (Shmyhal / RBC-Ukraina / Operatyvnyi ZSU).
