Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 31, 2025, 08:26 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. 171 combat engagements were recorded over the past 24 hours (as of 06:00 UTC Mar 31, per UGS). The Pokrovsk Direction experiences the highest intensity, with Ukrainian forces stopping 73 Russian attacks. Significant activity persists on the Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and Kursk/Belgorod border directions.
Russian Main Efforts: The primary Russian offensive axis remains towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure continues towards Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and the Chasiv Yar area. Russian forces persist in efforts to expand operations into Sumy Oblast and conduct multi-axis advances in Donetsk Oblast. Operations continue to consolidate control and advance within the Kursk border area, particularly near Oleshnia, Huyevo, Popovka, and Demydovka.
Ukrainian Defensive Posture: Ukrainian forces maintain defensive lines, repelling numerous assaults and inflicting casualties, particularly thwarting the large-scale push on the Pokrovsk direction. Active defense and counter-actions continue within Russian border territory (Kursk/Belgorod Oblasts), with 21 Russian attacks stopped in the Kursk operational zone (UGS, past 24h). Reinforcement of positions along the Kursk/Sumy border is reported. Counter-battery fire and localized defensive actions are ongoing across the front. Efforts to enhance Air Defense, particularly Mobile Fire Groups and EW against drones, are noted in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
II. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Air Threat Warning (NEW): Threat of Russian aviation weapon deployment declared for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (UA Air Force, 07:58 UTC Mar 31).
Russian Strike Campaign: Large-scale air, missile, and drone attacks continue.
Overnight Mar 30/31 Summary:
Missiles: 2 Iskander-M launched from Kursk Oblast (reportedly targeting Sumy Oblast, NOT intercepted).
UAVs: 131 Shahed-type UAVs launched from multiple directions, alongside 45 decoy drones (reported UA AF figures). 57 Shaheds were destroyed by Ukrainian forces; decoy UAVs lost track.
Impacts reported in Sumy, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr Oblasts.
Kharkiv City: 5 Shahed impacts confirmed in Kyivskyi district; 3 civilians injured; damage to 5 industrial premises (scientific/production enterprise), 11 multi-story residential buildings (approx. 100 windows blown out), and 2 kindergartens. (Kharkiv Mayor/Tsaplienko). Visuals confirm significant fire and structural damage.
Past 24 Hours (UGS Report): Russia conducted 2 missile strikes, 116 aviation strikes (using 223 KABs on Ukraine proper + 20 air strikes using 31 KABs in Kursk ops zone), employed 2,620 kamikaze drones, and executed over 5,300 shelling attacks (including 130 MLRS).
RU Claims (Mar 31):
Missile strike destroyed a Ukrainian radar station (reported as ieMHR RADA) near Petrushivka, Sumy Oblast (RU MoD via TASS/RVvoenkor).
Artillery (305th Bde) destroyed a Ukrainian UAV control point on the South Donetsk direction (Voin DV).
"Geran" UAVs targeted a UA UAV control point (RVvoenkor).
"Rubikon" drone unit destroyed UA personnel/equipment in Kursk Oblast (RU MoD via TASS/RVvoenkor).
Russian AD destroyed 66 Ukrainian UAVs overnight (41 over Bryansk Obl., 24 over Kaluga Obl., 1 over Kursk Obl.) (Colonelcassad/RU MoD).
Drone unit ("OKHOTNIK", 51st Gds Army) destroyed a camouflaged UA mortar position (Narodnaya Militsiya DNR).
Ukrainian Air Defense / Counter-Drone:
Ongoing efforts to strengthen AD in Zaporizhzhia direction (Mobile Fire Groups, EW). (Zaporizhzhia OVA).
UA Claim (NEW - Mar 31): "Rarog" unit destroyed 3 Russian recon UAVs (Supercam, 2x Zala) using FPV interceptor drones (Sternenko).
UA Claim (Mar 31): "Vartovi" drone battalion destroyed RU Zala recon UAV over Sumy Oblast (Sternenko).
UA Claim (Mar 31): "Magyar" drone unit claims destruction of 51 Russian UAVs over "BNR" (likely Belgorod Oblast) in the past 13 days (Butusov Plus).
Ukrainian Air Strikes (NEW): Video released allegedly showing Ukrainian fighters employing GBU-39/B SDB and GBU-62 JDAM-ER precision bombs against Russian positions (Tsaplienko, Mar 31).
Russian Munition Failures: Reports indicate continued incidents of Russian FAB bombs being accidentally dropped on Russian or occupied territory. 6 such incidents reported in the last 6 days (Mar 25-28) in Yenakiieve (Donetsk), Sukhodol (Kursk), Krasne (Belgorod), Nizhnee Berezovo-Vtoroye (Belgorod), Novorepovka (Kherson), Makiivka (Donetsk). Total 41 bombs + 3 rockets reported dropped since Jan 2025. (ASTRA, Mar 31). Claim that RU FAB dropped on Ivanovskaya Lisitsa (Belgorod) Mar 30, contrary to official RU claims of UA UAV attack (Sternenko).
Naval Missile Threat (Mar 29 data): Russian Navy maintained 2 Kalibr carriers (up to 8 missiles) in the Black Sea and 3 Kalibr carriers (up to 26 missiles) in the Mediterranean Sea.
III. Ground Combat Operations by Direction
Kursk/Belgorod Border Area (Russian Territory):
Overall: Situation remains tense, particularly in the Krasnoyaruzhsky tactical direction (RU sources). Ukrainian forces repelled 21 Russian assaults in the past day (UGS). RU forces conducted 20 air strikes (31 KABs) and 347 artillery strikes (5 MLRS) on UA positions/settlements in this zone (UGS).
Popovka (Belgorod): Heavy fighting continues. Ukrainian forces actively defending and attempting reinforcement (RU claim: Arkhangel Spetsnaza/Starshie Eddy). Logistics (evac, supplies) planned by UA for Popovka/Demidovka area (RU claim). Previous UA confirmed advance into eastern Popovka (ISW, Mar 29). RU claims unsuccessful UA attacks/breakthrough attempts (Mar 31).
Demydovka (Belgorod): Russian clearing operations continue, hampered by Ukrainian drone activity (RU claim: Arkhangel Spetsnaza/Starshie Eddy). Ukrainian forces reportedly reinforced positions with elements of the 225th Assault Battalion (4 groups to S/SE outskirts) (RU claim: Arkhangel Spetsnaza/Starshie Eddy).
Hoholivka (Kursk): Russian capture confirmed Mar 31 (RU MoD). RU VDV elements involved; RU sources claim clearing adjacent forests.
Huyevo (Kursk): RU sources claim ongoing clearing operations, reaching the Sudzha border crossing (Rybar, Slivochny Kapriz). RU claims UA 129th TD Bde deployed to delay advance (Arkhangel Spetsnaza). UA active defense reported E of Huyevo (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
Oleshnia (Kursk): Heavy fighting claimed (Dnevnik Desantnika, TASS). RU claims conducting "complex fire damage" on dispersed UA forces (TASS). RU claims UA reinforcing with 80th/41st Bdes (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Basivka (Sumy): Fighting claimed; RU claims UA holds ~1/4 of settlement while attempting reinforcement (Rybar, Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
Sudzha Area (Kursk): RU MoD claims UA forces mined territory with NATO-standard munitions during withdrawal (TASS). RU reports increased UA artillery fire intensity on Sudzha town and surrounding settlements (Arkhangel Spetsnaza). RU Investigative Committee documenting alleged killing of Sudzha resident by UA military (TASS).
Yunakovka Area (Sumy): RU claims UA reinforcing with 1st Tank Bde elements; RU assessing potential UA withdrawal preparations (arty pulled back, drone C2 moved) (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
Ukrainian HIMARS Strike (Mar 26-27 Confirmed): Eliminated RU Rosgvardia Major Marat Tibilov near Cherkasske-Porechne (Kursk).
Pokrovsk Direction (Donetsk Oblast): HIGHEST INTENSITY
Ukrainian forces stopped 73 Russian attacks in the past day near Oleksandropil, Kalynove, Vodyane Druhe, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Lysivka, Zelene, Kotlyne, Udachne, Andriyivka; and towards Malynivka, Kotlyarivka, Bohdanivka, Oleksiyivka (UGS).
Russian MoD confirmed liberation of Zaporizhzhia settlement (Donetsk) (Mar 31).
RU Claims: Fighting near Bohdanivka, advancing towards Troitske. Advances claimed south of Kotlyarivka, in Preobrazhenka, and north of Andriivka (Slivochny Kapriz). UA reportedly established control zone near Kotlyno (Slivochny Kapriz).
RU claims UA transferring reserves and attempting counterattacks near Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) (Pushilin via TASS).
Ukrainian forces successfully employed FPV drones against a Russian tank used for infantry transport and liquidated dismounted assault troops (30th Mech Bde, Butusov Plus).
Toretsk Direction (Donetsk Oblast): HIGH INTENSITY
Ukrainian forces stopped 17 Russian attacks near Krymske, Toretsk; and towards Dyliyivka (UGS).
RU Claims: Following earlier claimed captures, forces reached outskirts of Valentynivka and fight for Tarasivka (Dva Mayora, Rybar). UA transferring reserves and attempting counterattacks near Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk) (Pushilin via TASS).
UA Source Report: Captured RU soldiers (9th Brigade) allegedly used as "bait" near Toretsk to expose UA tank positions (Butusov Plus).
UA Confirmed RU advance near Panteleimonivka (Mar 30). RU claims drone/arty strikes on UA targets there (Mar 31). UA reportedly controls central Shcherbynivka (Slivochny Kapriz).
Lyman Direction (Donetsk/Luhansk Oblasts): HIGH INTENSITY
Ukrainian forces stopped 16 Russian attacks near Nadiya, Yampolivka, Kolodyazi; and towards Bohuslavka, Nove, Novomykhaylivka (UGS).
UA confirmed RU advance near Novoie (Mar 30).
RU Claims: "Krot" robotic ground complexes destroyed UA 64th Brigade strongpoints near Yampil (RU MoD via TASS, Poddubny). Advances claimed near Nove (Slivochny Kapriz). Previous RU claims of advances near Makeevka/Novolyubivka (Mar 29).
Novopavlivsk Direction (Donetsk Oblast): SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY
Ukrainian forces stopped 11 Russian attacks near Kostyantynopil; and towards Rozlyv, Vesele (UGS).
RU Claims: Forces advanced into the center of Razliv and fighting/advancing on flanks (Dva Mayora, WarGonzo, Rybar, Slivochny Kapriz). "Vostok" Group claims advances/inflicting casualties near Razliv, Vesyoly, Bogatyr, Otradne.
Ukrainian forces (OSUV Khortytsia) destroyed a Russian pontoon bridge crossing attempt using a TMM heavy mechanized bridge over the Oskil River near Dvorichna (Shef Hayabusa, Mar 31).
RU Claims: Expansion of bridgeheads N of Kupyansk (right bank Oskil). Forces advanced from Dvorichna towards Kupyansk, reaching outskirts of Kondrashivka. New positions claimed west of Orlyanske (Dva Mayora, Rybar, Slivochny Kapriz).
RU claimed capture of Krasne Pershe (Kharkiv Oblast) on Mar 29.
Ukrainian forces stopped 5 Russian attacks near Verkhnokamyanske, Ivano-Darivka (UGS).
RU Claims: Clearing forest areas west of Melovoy Karyer. Fighting near Hryhorivka (using artillery pre-assault). Fighting in eastern Verkhnokamyanske and clearing forests south of the village (Dnevnik Desantnika). Maneuvers towards Hryhorivka (Dva Mayora, Rybar).
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia Oblast):
Ukrainian forces stopped 4 Russian attacks near Mali Shcherbaky & Stepove (UGS).
RU Claims: Fighting near Shcherbaky. Expanded zone of control in Shcherbaky (Slivochny Kapriz). RU MoD previously claimed liberation of Shcherbaki (Mar 29). No major LBS changes claimed by WarGonzo (Mar 31). RU claim (Mar 29) advance inside Lobkove.
Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar Area):
Ukrainian forces stopped 2 Russian attacks near Stupochky and towards Bila Hora (UGS).
Intense fighting continues near Chasiv Yar, involving RU VDV (98th Division). No significant LBS changes claimed (WarGonzo, Mar 31). RU claims UA transferring reserves and attempting counterattacks (Pushilin via TASS).
Huliaipole Direction (Zaporizhzhia Oblast):
Ukrainian forces stopped 2 Russian attacks near Pryvilne, towards Vilne Pole (UGS).
RU Claims: "Vostok" Group claims advances/inflicting casualties near Volnoye Pole.
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson Oblast):
Alleged War Crimes/Vandalism (Crimea): Reports from Russian sources claim vandalism and arson overnight Mar 30/31 at the graves of RU war correspondent Alexander Fedorchak (killed Mar 24 near Kupyansk) and three other Russian soldiers in Nizhnegorsky, Crimea. Russian officials blame "hostile side" / "zhduny" (waiters/collaborators). A criminal investigation has been initiated by Russia. (Kotsnews, Rybar, Dva Mayora, TASS).
Sanctions Evasion Scheme Alleged: Ukrainian hackers (InformNapalm/256 Cyber Assault Division) allege an Indian company (Park Controls & Communications) deceived French manufacturer (HGH) to procure sanctioned electro-optics (collimator) for a Russian company (EMT), potentially for the Krasnogorsk plant. Payments allegedly made via Sberbank India. Scheme reportedly involved temporarily returning equipment to India. Potential involvement of Israeli company CI Systems also mentioned. (ASTRA, Mar 31).
Russian Recruitment: FSB Border Directorate actively recruiting contract soldiers in Ingushetia, offering significant pay and benefits. (Dva Mayora). Crowdfunding appeals for equipment for Russian forces (e.g., for 3rd Army units near Bakhmut/Chasiv Yar/Siversk) continue, requesting drones, EW, radios, optics, generators, Starlink. (Colonelcassad).
Historical Context (NYT Report): Report claims US intelligence intercepted communications indicating then-commander Sergey Surovikin proposed using tactical nuclear weapons in Oct 2022 to halt the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast. (ASTRA/NYT, Mar 31).
Border Tensions (Armenia/Azerbaijan): Armenia reports Azerbaijani forces opened fire towards Khnatsakh village (Syunik) damaging a house (Mar 31). Both sides deny opening fire on each other's positions Mar 30/31. (WarGonzo/Armenian MoD).
Internal Russian Issues: Concerns raised in Russia about potential formation of closed migrant enclaves promoting radicalism and anti-social attitudes. (Novosti Moskvy/Grebenskin).
