Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 31, 2025, 07:56 UTC
(Incorporating information up to March 31, 07:56 UTC)
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. Over the past 24 hours (as of 06:00 UTC Mar 31), 171 combat engagements were recorded (UGS).
Highest Intensity: Pokrovsk Direction (73 attacks stopped near Oleksandropil, Kalynove, Vodyane Druhe, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Lysivka, Zelene, Kotlyne, Udachne, Andriyivka; also towards Malynivka, Kotlyarivka, Bohdanivka, Oleksiyivka).
Significant Activity: Lyman (16 attacks stopped near Nadiya, Yampolivka, Kolodyazi; towards Bohuslavka, Nove, Novomykhaylivka), Toretsk (17 attacks stopped near Krymske, Toretsk; towards Dyliyivka), Novopavlivsk (11 attacks stopped near Kostyantynopil; towards Rozlyv, Vesele), Kursk/Belgorod border region (21 attacks stopped in Kursk operational zone).
Other Active Directions: Kupyansk (6 attacks stopped near Radkivka, Pischane, Bohuslavka, Petropavlivka, Zahryzove), Siversk (5 attacks stopped near Verkhnokamyanske, Ivano-Darivka), Orikhiv (4 attacks stopped near Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove), Kramatorsk (2 attacks stopped near Stupochky, towards Bila Hora), Huliaipole (2 attacks stopped near Pryvilne, towards Vilne Pole), Prydniprovsky (Kherson) (2 attacks stopped near Sadove), Kharkiv (4 attacks stopped near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Krasne Pershe).
Russian Main Efforts: Primary offensive focus remains directed towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure is observed towards Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and Chasiv Yar. Russian forces maintain efforts to expand combat operations into Sumy Oblast and continue attempts to advance along multiple axes in Donetsk Oblast. Efforts continue to consolidate control and advance within the Kursk border area, with heavy fighting reported near Oleshnia.
Russian Strike Campaign: Russia continues large-scale air and drone attacks.
Overnight Mar 30/31: Launched 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles (from Kursk Oblast), 131 Shahed-type UAVs, and an unspecified number (reported as 45 by UA AF) of decoy drones from multiple directions (Millerovo, Kursk, Bryansk, Orel, Primorsko-Akhtarsk) (UA Air Force). UA forces destroyed 57 Shahed UAVs; 45 decoy UAVs reportedly lost track; Iskander-M missiles were NOT intercepted. Impacts in Sumy, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr Oblasts. RU sources claimed Iskander targeted Sumy Oblast, Gerans targeted Kyiv/Zhytomyr Oblasts, and a Geran-2 hit a UA UAV control point.
Past 24 hours (UGS report): Russia conducted 2 missile strikes, 116 aviation strikes (using 223 KABs on Ukraine proper + 20 air strikes using 31 KABs in Kursk ops zone), employed 2,620 kamikaze drones, and executed over 5,300 shelling attacks (including 130 MLRS).
RU CLAIM (NEW): Missile strike destroyed a Ukrainian radar station in Sumy Oblast (RU MoD via TASS, Mar 31).
RU CLAIM (NEW): Artillery units (305th Bde, 5th CAA, Vostok Gp) destroyed a Ukrainian UAV control point on the South Donetsk direction (Voin DV, Mar 31).
RU CLAIM (NEW - Air Defense): Russian air defenses claim to have destroyed 66 Ukrainian UAVs overnight Mar 30/31 (41 over Bryansk Obl., 24 over Kaluga Obl., 1 over Kursk Obl.) (Colonelcassad, Mar 31).
Ukrainian Defensive Posture: Ukrainian forces maintain defensive lines, inflicting losses and repelling numerous assaults, notably stopping 73 attacks on the Pokrovsk direction. Active Ukrainian operations on Russian territory continue, with forces stopping 21 Russian attacks in the Kursk operational zone over the past day (UGS). Ukrainian forces reportedly reinforcing positions in the Kursk/Sumy border area. Counter-battery fire and defensive actions ongoing.
NEW (Zaporizhzhia AD): Ukrainian officials report ongoing efforts to strengthen Air Defense capabilities in the Zaporizhzhia direction, focusing on equipping Mobile Fire Groups and improving Electronic Warfare (EW) measures against Shahed drones. Acknowledge improved results but persistent threat. (Zaporizhzhia OVA, Mar 31).
RU CLAIM (Reinforced): Russian MoD confirmed capture of Hoholivka (Gogolevka), Kursk Oblast (Mar 31 video). RU VDV elements involved. RU sources (Arkhangel Spetsnaza) claim pushing UA forces from southern outskirts of Hoholivka and clearing adjacent forest lines.
RU CLAIM (Reinforced/New): Heavy fighting claimed near Oleshnia (Kursk) (Dnevnik Desantnika, TASS); RU claims conducting "complex fire damage" on UA forces dispersed in forests nearby (TASS). RU sources claim ongoing clearing operations in Huyevo (Kursk) (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Rybar, Slivochny Kapriz), with RU forces reaching the Sudzha border crossing (Slivochny Kapriz). RU claim fighting in Basivka (Sumy) (Rybar), alleging UA holds only ~1/4 of settlement while attempting to reinforce (Arkhangel Spetsnaza). RU confirmed control of northern Uspenivka (Slivochny Kapriz, Mar 30 RU claim).
RU CLAIM (UA Reinforcements): RU sources claim UA reinforcing near Oleshnia with elements of 80th and 41st Brigades (Dnevnik Desantnika); reinforcing Yunakovka area (from Sumy) with 1st Tank Bde elements and near Hoholivka with 80th Airmobile Bde elements (Arkhangel Spetsnaza). RU claims UA deployed 129th TD Bde elements near Huyevo to delay RU advance (Arkhangel Spetsnaza). RU assessing potential UA withdrawal preparations near Yunakovka (arty pulled back, drone C2 moved into town) (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
RU CLAIM (UA Defensive Actions): RU claims UA conducting active defense east of Huyevo (Hlyboke area) using artillery and "Baba Yaga" drones (Arkhangel Spetsnaza). RU reports increased UA artillery fire intensity on Sudzha, Mirny, Rubanshchyna, Honcharivka (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
RU CLAIM (NEW - Kursk): Russian MoD claims "Rubikon" drone unit destroyed UA personnel/equipment in Kursk Oblast (TASS). Russian Rosgvardia previously claimed destruction of a UA BMP Bradley in Kursk Oblast (TASS, Mar 31).
RU CLAIM (NEW): Russian MoD sources claim UA forces mined territory in Sudzha district (Kursk) with NATO-standard munitions during withdrawal (TASS, Mar 31).
UA CLAIM (NEW): "Vartovi" drone battalion destroyed RU Zala reconnaissance UAV over Sumy Oblast (Sternenko, Mar 31).
UA CLAIM (Belgorod): "Magyar" drone unit claims destruction of 51 Russian UAVs over "BNR" (likely Belgorod Oblast) in the past 13 days (Butusov Plus, Mar 31).
UA Confirmed Advance (Previous): Confirmed UA advances into eastern Popovka (NW Belgorod Oblast) (ISW, Mar 29); reports suggest UA advanced 3-4 km into Belgorod Oblast, breaching first RU defense line (Reuters/Tsaplienko/BBG/ISW). RU CLAIM (Mar 31): WarGonzo/Rybar claim UA attempts to attack near Popovka (Belgorod) were unsuccessful; Rybar notes RU ГрВ «Север» claims UA attempted 3 breakthroughs near Popovka & 1 near Demydovka, alleges UA reinforcing with 17th Heavy Mech Bde elements.
Pokrovsk Direction:
RU CLAIM (Reinforced): Russian MoD confirmed liberation of Zaporizhzhia settlement (Donetsk Oblast) (Mar 31).
RU CLAIM: Fighting claimed near Bohdanivka, advancing towards Troitske (Dva Mayora, Rybar Mar 31, Slivochny Kapriz). RU claims advances south of Kotlyarivka, in Preobrazhenka, and north of Andriivka (Slivochny Kapriz).
RU CLAIM (NEW): UA transferring reserves and attempting counterattacks near Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) (Pushilin via TASS, Mar 31). UA reported establishing control zone near Kotlyno (Slivochny Kapriz).
UGS reports UA repelled 73 attacks near Oleksandropil, Kalynove, Vodyane Druhe, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Lysivka, Zelene, Kotlyne, Udachne, Andriyivka; also towards Malynivka, Kotlyarivka, Bohdanivka, Oleksiyivka (Past 24h).
Toretsk Direction:
RU CLAIM (Reinforced): Following claimed capture of Oleksandropil/Panteleimonivka, RU sources (Dva Mayora map/text, Rybar Mar 31) claim forces reached outskirts of Valentynivka and fight for Tarasivka.
RU CLAIM (NEW): UA transferring reserves and attempting counterattacks near Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk) (Pushilin via TASS, Mar 31).
UA Source Report (NEW): Captured RU soldiers (9th Brigade) near Toretsk reportedly used as "bait" ("otkryvashki" - openers) to expose UA tank positions after being dropped off under drone surveillance and told to advance towards non-existent friendly forces. Tank fired on their position after they took cover. (Butusov Plus, Mar 31).
UA Confirmed (Mar 30) RU advance near Panteleimonivka. RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Drone-artillery strikes claimed on UA targets in Panteleimonivka. UA reportedly controls central Shcherbynivka (Slivochny Kapriz).
UGS reports UA repelled 17 attacks near Krymske, Toretsk; towards Dyliyivka (Past 24h).
Novopavlivsk Direction:
RU CLAIM (Reinforced): Russian sources (Dva Mayora, WarGonzo, Rybar Mar 31, Slivochny Kapriz) claim forces advanced into the center of Razliv and are fighting/advancing on flanks (attacked eastern part - Slivochny Kapriz).
RU CLAIM (Mar 31): "Vostok" Group claims advances/inflicting casualties near Razliv, Vesyoly, Bogatyr, Otradne.
UGS reports UA repelled 11 attacks near Kostyantynopil; towards Rozlyv, Vesele (Past 24h).
Huliaipole Direction:
RU CLAIM (Mar 31): "Vostok" Group claims advances/inflicting casualties near Volnoye Pole.
UGS reports UA repelled 2 attacks near Pryvilne, towards Vilne Pole (Past 24h).
Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar area): Intense fighting near Chasiv Yar involving RU VDV (98th Division). UGS reports 2 clashes near Stupochky / towards Bila Hora (past 24h). WarGonzo claims fighting in/around Chasiv Yar, no significant LBS changes (Mar 31). RU CLAIM (NEW): UA transferring reserves and attempting counterattacks near Chasiv Yar (Pushilin via TASS, Mar 31).
Lyman Direction:
UA confirms RU advance near Novoie (Mar 30). Terny previously assessed almost fully RU-occupied.
RU CLAIM (NEW): RU MoD claims "Krot" robotic complexes destroyed UA 64th Brigade strongpoints near Yampil (TASS, Mar 31). Video released allegedly showing ground robot destroying dugout near Yampil (Poddubny, Mar 31). RU sources claim advances near Nove (Slivochny Kapriz). RU claims (Mar 29) advances near Makeevka/Novolyubivka.
UGS reports UA repelled 16 attacks near Nadiya, Yampolivka, Kolodyazi; towards Bohuslavka, Nove, Novomykhaylivka (Past 24h).
Kupyansk Direction:
UA CLAIM (NEW): Ukrainian forces (OSUV Khortytsia) destroyed a Russian pontoon bridge crossing attempt using a TMM heavy mechanized bridge over the Oskil River near Dvorichna (Kharkiv Oblast) (Shef Hayabusa, Mar 31).
RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Expansion of bridgeheads N of Kupyansk (right bank Oskil) (Dva Mayora, Rybar). RU forces advanced from Dvorichna towards Kupyansk, reaching outskirts of Kondrashivka; new positions claimed west of Orlyanske (Slivochny Kapriz).
RU claimed capture of Krasne Pershe (Kharkiv Oblast) (Mar 29).
UGS reports UA repelled 6 attacks near Radkivka, Pischane, Bohuslavka, Petropavlivka, Zahryzove (Past 24h).
UGS reports UA repelled 4 attacks near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Krasne Pershe on the broader Kharkiv axis (Past 24h).
Orikhiv Direction:
RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Fighting near Shcherbaky (Dva Mayora, WarGonzo, Rybar), tank destroyed near Novodanylivka (Dva Mayora, Rybar). RU claims expanded zone of control in Shcherbaky (Slivochny Kapriz). RU MoD previously claimed liberation of Shcherbaki (Zaporizhzhia) (Mar 29).
UGS reports UA repelled 4 attacks near Mali Shcherbaky & Stepove (Past 24h). WarGonzo claims no major LBS changes (Mar 31).
Siversk Direction:
RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Maneuvers towards Hryhorivka (Dva Mayora, Rybar).
