Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 31, 2025, 07:25 UTC
(Incorporating information up to March 31, 07:25 UTC)
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. Over the past 24 hours (as of 06:00 UTC Mar 31), 171 combat engagements were recorded (UGS). The highest intensity persists along the Pokrovsk Direction (73 attacks stopped). Significant combat activity continues on the Lyman (16 attacks), Toretsk (17 attacks), Novopavlivsk (11 attacks) directions, and across the Kursk/Belgorod border region (21 attacks stopped in Kursk operational zone). Other active directions include Kupyansk (6), Siversk (5), Orikhiv (4), Kramatorsk (2), Huliaipole (2), Prydniprovsky (2), and Kharkiv (4).
Russian Main Efforts: Primary offensive focus remains directed towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure is observed towards Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and Chasiv Yar. Russian forces maintain efforts to expand combat operations into Sumy Oblast and continue attempts to advance along multiple axes in Donetsk Oblast. Efforts continue to consolidate control and advance within the Kursk border area, with heavy fighting reported near Oleshnia.
Russian Strike Campaign: Russia continues large-scale air and drone attacks.
Overnight Mar 30/31: Launched 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles (from Kursk Oblast), 131 Shahed-type UAVs, and an unspecified number (reported as 45 by UA AF) of decoy drones from multiple directions (Millerovo, Kursk, Bryansk, Orel, Primorsko-Akhtarsk) (UA Air Force). UA forces destroyed 57 Shahed UAVs; 45 decoy UAVs reportedly lost track; Iskander-M missiles were NOT intercepted. Impacts in Sumy, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr Oblasts. RU sources claimed Iskander targeted Sumy Oblast, Gerans targeted Kyiv/Zhytomyr Oblasts, and a Geran-2 hit a UA UAV control point.
Past 24 hours (UGS report): Russia conducted 2 missile strikes, 116 aviation strikes (using 223 KABs on Ukraine proper + 31 KABs in Kursk ops zone), employed 2,620 kamikaze drones, and executed over 5,300 shelling attacks (including 130 MLRS).
Ukrainian Defensive Posture: Ukrainian forces maintain defensive lines, inflicting losses and repelling numerous assaults, notably stopping 73 attacks on the Pokrovsk direction. Active Ukrainian operations on Russian territory continue, with forces stopping 21 Russian attacks in the Kursk operational zone over the past day (UGS). Ukrainian forces reportedly reinforcing positions in the Kursk/Sumy border area. Counter-battery fire and defensive actions ongoing.
RU CLAIM (Reinforced): Russian MoD confirmed capture of Hoholivka (Gogolevka), Kursk Oblast (Mar 31 video). RU VDV elements involved. RU sources (Arkhangel Spetsnaza) claim pushing UA forces from southern outskirts of Hoholivka and clearing adjacent forest lines.
RU CLAIM (Reinforced/New): Heavy fighting claimed near Oleshnia (Kursk) (Dnevnik Desantnika, TASS); RU claims conducting "complex fire damage" on UA forces dispersed in forests nearby (TASS). RU sources claim ongoing clearing operations in Huyevo (Kursk) (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Rybar, Slivochny Kapriz), with RU forces reaching the Sudzha border crossing (Slivochny Kapriz). RU claim fighting in Basivka (Sumy) (Rybar), alleging UA holds only ~1/4 of settlement while attempting to reinforce (Arkhangel Spetsnaza). RU confirmed control of northern Uspenivka (Slivochny Kapriz, Mar 30 RU claim).
RU CLAIM (UA Reinforcements): RU sources claim UA reinforcing near Oleshnia with elements of 80th and 41st Brigades (Dnevnik Desantnika); reinforcing Yunakovka area (from Sumy) with 1st Tank Bde elements and near Hoholivka with 80th Airmobile Bde elements (Arkhangel Spetsnaza). RU claims UA deployed 129th TD Bde elements near Huyevo to delay RU advance (Arkhangel Spetsnaza). RU assessing potential UA withdrawal preparations near Yunakovka (arty pulled back, drone C2 moved into town) (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
RU CLAIM (UA Defensive Actions): RU claims UA conducting active defense east of Huyevo (Hlyboke area) using artillery and "Baba Yaga" drones (Arkhangel Spetsnaza). RU reports increased UA artillery fire intensity on Sudzha, Mirny, Rubanshchyna, Honcharivka (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
RU CLAIM (NEW - Kursk): Russian MoD claims "Rubikon" drone unit destroyed UA personnel/equipment in Kursk Oblast (TASS). Russian Rosgvardia previously claimed destruction of a UA BMP Bradley in Kursk Oblast (TASS, Mar 31).
RU CLAIM (NEW): Russian MoD sources claim UA forces mined territory in Sudzha district (Kursk) with NATO-standard munitions during withdrawal (TASS, Mar 31).
UA CLAIM (NEW): "Vartovi" drone battalion destroyed RU Zala reconnaissance UAV over Sumy Oblast (Sternenko, Mar 31).
UA CLAIM (Belgorod): "Magyar" drone unit claims destruction of 51 Russian UAVs over "BNR" (likely Belgorod Oblast) in the past 13 days (Butusov Plus, Mar 31).
UA Confirmed Advance (Previous): Confirmed UA advances into eastern Popovka (NW Belgorod Oblast) (ISW, Mar 29); reports suggest UA advanced 3-4 km into Belgorod Oblast, breaching first RU defense line (Reuters/Tsaplienko/BBG/ISW). RU CLAIM (Mar 31): WarGonzo/Rybar claim UA attempts to attack near Popovka (Belgorod) were unsuccessful; Rybar notes RU ГрВ «Север» claims UA attempted 3 breakthroughs near Popovka & 1 near Demydovka, alleges UA reinforcing with 17th Heavy Mech Bde elements.
Pokrovsk Direction:
RU CLAIM (Reinforced): Russian MoD confirmed liberation of Zaporizhzhia settlement (Donetsk Oblast) (Mar 31).
RU CLAIM: Fighting claimed near Bohdanivka, advancing towards Troitske (Dva Mayora, Rybar Mar 31, Slivochny Kapriz). RU claims advances south of Kotlyarivka, in Preobrazhenka, and north of Andriivka (Slivochny Kapriz).
RU CLAIM (NEW): UA transferring reserves and attempting counterattacks near Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) (Pushilin via TASS, Mar 31). UA reported establishing control zone near Kotlyno (Slivochny Kapriz).
Toretsk Direction:
RU CLAIM (Reinforced): Following claimed capture of Oleksandropil/Panteleimonivka, RU sources (Dva Mayora map/text, Rybar Mar 31) claim forces reached outskirts of Valentynivka and fight for Tarasivka.
RU CLAIM (NEW): UA transferring reserves and attempting counterattacks near Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk) (Pushilin via TASS, Mar 31).
UA Source Report (NEW): Captured RU soldiers (9th Brigade) near Toretsk reportedly used as "bait" ("otkryvashki" - openers) to expose UA tank positions after being dropped off under drone surveillance and told to advance towards non-existent friendly forces. Tank fired on their position after they took cover. (Butusov Plus, Mar 31).
UA Confirmed (Mar 30) RU advance near Panteleimonivka. RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Drone-artillery strikes claimed on UA targets in Panteleimonivka. UA reportedly controls central Shcherbynivka (Slivochny Kapriz).
Novopavlivsk Direction:
RU CLAIM (Reinforced): Russian sources (Dva Mayora, WarGonzo, Rybar Mar 31, Slivochny Kapriz) claim forces advanced into the center of Razliv and are fighting/advancing on flanks (attacked eastern part - Slivochny Kapriz).
RU CLAIM (Mar 31): "Vostok" Group claims advances/inflicting casualties near Razliv, Vesyoly, Bogatyr, Otradne.
Huliaipole Direction:RU CLAIM (Mar 31): "Vostok" Group claims advances/inflicting casualties near Volnoye Pole.
Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar area): Intense fighting near Chasiv Yar involving RU VDV (98th Division). UGS reports 2 clashes near Stupochky / towards Bila Hora (past 24h). WarGonzo claims fighting in/around Chasiv Yar, no significant LBS changes (Mar 31). RU CLAIM (NEW): UA transferring reserves and attempting counterattacks near Chasiv Yar (Pushilin via TASS, Mar 31).
Lyman Direction:UA confirms RU advance near Novoie (Mar 30). Terny previously assessed almost fully RU-occupied. RU CLAIM (NEW): RU MoD claims "Krot" robotic complexes destroyed UA 64th Brigade strongpoints near Yampil (TASS, Mar 31). Video released allegedly showing ground robot destroying dugout near Yampil (Poddubny, Mar 31). RU sources claim advances near Nove (Slivochny Kapriz). RU claims (Mar 29) advances near Makeevka/Novolyubivka. UGS reports 16 RU attacks repelled (past 24h).
Kupyansk Direction:
UA CLAIM (NEW): Ukrainian forces (OSUV Khortytsia) destroyed a Russian pontoon bridge crossing attempt using a TMM heavy mechanized bridge over the Oskil River near Dvorichna (Kharkiv Oblast) (Shef Hayabusa, Mar 31).
RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Expansion of bridgeheads N of Kupyansk (right bank Oskil) (Dva Mayora, Rybar). RU forces advanced from Dvorichna towards Kupyansk, reaching outskirts of Kondrashivka; new positions claimed west of Orlyanske (Slivochny Kapriz).
RU claimed capture of Krasne Pershe (Kharkiv Oblast) (Mar 29). UGS reports 4 attacks stopped near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Krasne Pershe (past 24h).
Orikhiv Direction:
RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Fighting near Shcherbaky (Dva Mayora, WarGonzo, Rybar), tank destroyed near Novodanylivka (Dva Mayora, Rybar). RU claims expanded zone of control in Shcherbaky (Slivochny Kapriz). RU MoD previously claimed liberation of Shcherbaki (Zaporizhzhia) (Mar 29). UGS reports 4 attacks repelled near Mali Shcherbaky & Stepove (past 24h). WarGonzo claims no major LBS changes (Mar 31).
Ukrainian aviation, missile troops, and artillery hit 14 Russian concentration areas (personnel/equipment) and 1 command post (UGS).
UA CLAIM (NEW): OSUV Khortytsia reports destruction of RU pontoon bridge crossing attempt (TMM bridge) over Oskil River near Dvorichna (Kharkiv Obl.) (Shef Hayabusa, Mar 31).
UA CLAIM (NEW): "Vartovi" drone battalion destroyed RU Zala reconnaissance UAV over Sumy Oblast (Sternenko, Mar 31).
UA CLAIM (NEW): "Magyar" drone unit claims destruction of 51 Russian UAVs over "BNR" (likely Belgorod Oblast) in the past 13 days (Butusov Plus, Mar 31).
Video released allegedly showing UA "Combined Rifle Brigade" destroying RU armor (Tsaplienko, Mar 31).
Video released showing UA 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade drone strikes on RU positions (trenches, bunkers, personnel) (Mar 31). Drone types include "IRPIN Drone", "ZLUKI BOBRY".
Video released showing UA 80th Separate Air Assault Brigade "Foxtrot" drone company operations. Highlights use of various drones (Mavic mods, hexacopters, FPV bombers like "Vampire"), adaptation to EW, targeting RU positions/equipment/personnel. Notes in-house workshop.
Video released showing UA Air Force strikes using precision-guided munitions (GBU-39/B SDB, GBU-62 JDAM-ER, AASM Hammer 250) against ground targets (Tsaplienko, Butusov Plus, Mar 31).
UA CLAIM (Previous): Drone attack reported against Shaykovka airfield (Kaluga Oblast, Russia). Consequences being clarified (Tsaplienko, Mar 31).
Enemy Tactics/Capabilities:
Continued heavy reliance on KABs, kamikaze drones (Shahed/Geran), and massed artillery fire.
NEW Claim: Reported use of "Krot" ground robotic complexes near Yampil (TASS/RU MoD, Poddubny).
NEW Claim: Reported use of "Rubikon" FPV drones in Kursk Oblast (TASS/RU MoD).
NEW Claim (Zapad Group): RU MoD claims Giatsint-S artillery destroyed US M777 howitzer, radar, UAV CP, and personnel.
Reported use of poorly trained/equipped personnel as "bait" near Toretsk (Butusov Plus).
Insights from RU assault group commander interview: Emphasis on kit (explosives, comms), psychological tactics for surrender, breaching walls in urban combat (Colonelcassad).
Reported use of camouflaged 2S5 Giatsint-S artillery employing fire-and-move tactics (RU Source - Basurin, Mar 31).
Potential testing/deployment of net-deploying drones as counter-UAV measure (RU Source video - Dva Mayora, Mar 31).
RU claims use of fiber-optic guided FPV drones (range up to 35km claimed) (RU Source - Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Mar 31).
RU claim of coordinated drone operations (multiple units) against UA infantry on Shakhtarsk direction (RU Source - Voin DV, Mar 31).
RU claims placement of artillery (D-30 howitzers) within residential areas (RU Source - Basurin, Mar 31, image analysis).
II. Air & Strike Campaign
Mass Drone/Missile Attack (Overnight Mar 30/31): (See Section I for details)
Tactical Aviation / KABs: Threat remains high.
Threat Active (06:44 UTC Mar 31): Alert for RU KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast (UA Air Force).
Threat Active (06:28 UTC Mar 31): Alert for RU KAB launches towards Donetsk Oblast (UA Air Force).
Threat Ongoing (06:20 UTC Mar 31): Alert for RU tactical aviation activity on eastern front, threat of air strikes for frontline oblasts (UA Air Force).
Past 24h: RU conducted 116 air strikes using 223 KABs against UA territory, plus 20 air strikes (31 KABs) in the Kursk operational zone (UGS).
Specific Impacts (Recent):
Kupyansk City (Kharkiv Obl.): KAB strike on 5-story building (Mar 30) caused fire, damaged vehicles, injured 5 civilians (Kharkiv OVA, ASTRA, Sever Realii).
Multiple strikes (6 explosions reported - Kharkiv Mayor). Impacts confirmed: Hit on civilian enterprise (workshop/production building, warehouse) in Kyivskyi district, causing >3900 sq.m. fire. Damage to 3 apartment blocks (windows), kindergarten (windows/facade), 2 cars. 3 civilians injured (Kharkiv OVA, Sternenko, ASTRA, Operatyvnyi ZSU/SES, Sever Realii). RU sources (RVvoenkor, Colonelcassad, Voenkor Kotenok) claim strikes targeted production/warehouse facilities. Photos show extensive damage and firefighting efforts.
Derhachi (Kharkiv Oblast): Shahed impact caused large grass fire (05:02 UTC Mar 31).
Kyiv Oblast: Overnight (Mar 30/31): 16 UAVs destroyed near Kyiv, no casualties/damage in city limits. Strikes reported in Zghurivka, Brovary, Vyshhorod, Bila Tserkva areas (Previous Report).
Other Regions (Past 24h): Impacts/damage reported in Sumy, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson Oblasts from various shelling/drone attacks (Sever Realii, Previous Reports).
III. Other Developments
Reported Incidents:
Crimea Grave Vandalism: Multiple RU sources report vandalism (burning, destruction) of the recent grave of RU military correspondent Aleksandr Fedorchak and three other SVO participants in Nizhnegorsky, Crimea. RU sources blame pro-Ukrainian elements ("zhduny"). Russian МВД and СК have opened criminal cases. (Voenkor Kotenok, Alex Parker Returns, TASS, ASTRA). RU sources (TASS) quote MIC "Izvestia" head claiming Ukraine organized the attack.
Belgorod Cemetery Strike: UA source (Operatyvnyi ZSU) claims Russian VKS dropped a FAB bomb on a cemetery in Ivanovskaya Lisitsa, Belgorod Oblast (Russia).
Information Operations / Propaganda:
RU: Pushilin (TASS) claims UA targets journalists in Donbas on Kyiv's orders. Video released showing RU assault commander discussing tactics/motivation (Colonelcassad). Video released showing RU police investigating Crimea grave vandalism (TASS). Emphasis on UA reinforcements/counterattacks being repelled (Pushilin/TASS). Narrative of RU forces clearing Kursk Oblast continues. Claims of UA drone crew losses in Kursk (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
UA: Video released showing captured RU soldiers used as "bait" near Toretsk (Butusov Plus). Video released promoting UA 47th Brigade film about Kursk fighting (47 OMBr). Release of videos showing successful UA drone strikes (Sternenko, Butusov Plus) and use of Western precision munitions (Tsaplienko). Claims of RU bombing own territory (Belgorod cemetery). Coordination HQ for POWs announces restructuring of regional centers.
Political / Diplomatic:
US-Ukraine "Resource Deal": Trump (via RU sources/Reuters) stated Zelenskyy trying to back out of a "rare earth metals" deal would cause "big problems." (Basurin, Alex Parker Returns, Shef Hayabusa).
RU-US Talks?: RU sources (Kirill Dmitriev via Izvestia/ASTRA/Operatyvnyi ZSU) claim Russia and US have begun discussions on joint rare earth metal projects, potentially involving occupied territories (NBC source mentioned).
Iran-US Tensions: Reports (Tehran Times via UA sources) claim Iran has prepared missiles for launch in response to US threats (related to nuclear program refusal/Trump's rhetoric). (Operatyvnyi ZSU, Tsaplienko).
Ukraine Elections: Head of UA Central Election Commission suggests need for more time/new law for post-war elections beyond the one month stipulated after martial law ends (TASS, RVvoenkor). Former CinC Zaluzhnyi reiterated focus should be on war, not elections, when asked about participation rumors (RBC-Ukraine).
Armenia-ODKB: Armenia reportedly notified ODKB it will abstain from signing document on financing the organization (Dva Mayora).
POW/MIA Support (Ukraine): Coordination Headquarters for POWs announced opening of new regional offices in 14 cities (Lutsk, Sloviansk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kropyvnytskyi, Odesa, Rivne, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Uzhhorod, Poltava, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy, Chernivtsi) while suspending centers in Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, Lviv, Vinnytsia from Apr 1 pending regulatory updates. Kyiv center and hotline remain operational. (KoordShtab POW)
