Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 31, 2025, 06:55 UTC
(Incorporating information up to March 31, 06:55 UTC)
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. Over the past 24 hours (as of 06:00 UTC Mar 31), 171 combat engagements were recorded across the front (UGS). The highest intensity persists along the Pokrovsk Direction (73 attacks stopped). Significant combat activity continues on the Lyman (16 attacks), Toretsk (17 attacks), Novopavlivsk (11 attacks) directions, and across the Kursk/Belgorod border region (21 attacks stopped in Kursk operational zone). Other active directions include Kupyansk (6), Siversk (5), Orikhiv (4), Kramatorsk (2), Huliaipole (2), Prydniprovsky (2), and Kharkiv (4).
Russian Main Efforts: Primary offensive focus remains directed towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure is observed towards Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and Chasiv Yar. Russian forces maintain efforts to expand combat operations into Sumy Oblast and continue attempts to advance along multiple axes in Donetsk Oblast. Efforts continue to consolidate control and advance within the Kursk border area, with heavy fighting reported near Oleshnia. Russian sources (Rybar, Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Dnevnik Desantnika) reiterate narrative of ongoing operations/clearing in Huyevo (Kursk) and fighting in Basivka (Sumy), anticipating fighting for Oleshnia (Kursk).
Russian Strike Campaign: Russia continues large-scale air and drone attacks. Overnight Mar 30/31, Russia launched 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles (from Kursk Oblast), 131 Shahed-type UAVs, and an unspecified number (reported as 45 by UA AF) of decoy drones from multiple directions (Millerovo, Kursk, Bryansk, Orel, Primorsko-Akhtarsk) (UA Air Force). Over the past 24 hours (UGS report), Russia conducted 2 missile strikes, 116 aviation strikes (using 223 KABs on Ukraine proper + 31 KABs in Kursk ops zone), employed 2,620 kamikaze drones, and executed over 5,300 shelling attacks (including 130 MLRS) against Ukrainian positions and populated areas.
Ukrainian Defensive Posture: Ukrainian forces maintain defensive lines, inflicting losses and repelling numerous assaults, notably stopping 73 attacks on the Pokrovsk direction. Active Ukrainian operations on Russian territory continue, with forces stopping 21 Russian attacks in the Kursk operational zone over the past day (UGS). Ukrainian forces reportedly reinforcing positions in the Kursk/Sumy border area. Counter-battery fire and defensive actions ongoing.
RU CLAIM (Reinforced): Russian MoD confirmed capture of Hoholivka (Gogolevka), Kursk Oblast (Mar 31 video). RU VDV elements involved. RU sources (Arkhangel Spetsnaza) claim pushing UA forces from southern outskirts of Hoholivka and clearing adjacent forest lines.
RU CLAIM (Reinforced/New): Heavy fighting claimed near Oleshnia (Kursk) (Dnevnik Desantnika, TASS); RU claims conducting "complex fire damage" on UA forces dispersed in forests nearby (TASS). RU claim ongoing clearing operations in Huyevo (Kursk) (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Rybar). RU claim fighting in Basivka (Sumy) (Rybar).
RU CLAIM (UA Reinforcements): RU sources claim UA reinforcing near Oleshnia with elements of 80th and 41st Brigades (Dnevnik Desantnika); reinforcing Yunakovka area (from Sumy) with 1st Tank Bde elements and near Hoholivka with 80th Airmobile Bde elements (Arkhangel Spetsnaza). RU claims UA deployed 129th TD Bde elements near Huyevo to delay RU advance (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
RU CLAIM (UA Defensive Actions): RU claims UA conducting active defense east of Huyevo (Hlyboke area) using artillery and "Baba Yaga" drones (Arkhangel Spetsnaza). RU reports increased UA artillery fire intensity on Sudzha, Mirny, Rubanshchyna, Honcharivka (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
RU CLAIM (NEW - Kursk): Russian MoD claims "Rubikon" drone unit destroyed UA personnel/equipment in Kursk Oblast (TASS). Russian Rosgvardia previously claimed destruction of a UA BMP Bradley in Kursk Oblast (TASS, Mar 31).
RU CLAIM (NEW): Russian MoD sources claim UA forces mined territory in Sudzha district (Kursk) with NATO-standard munitions during withdrawal (TASS, Mar 31).
UA CLAIM (NEW): "Vartovi" drone battalion destroyed RU Zala reconnaissance UAV over Sumy Oblast (Sternenko, Mar 31).
RU claims (Mar 30) control northern Uspenivka; narrative of Sudzha "liberated" persists.
UA Confirmed Advance (Previous): Confirmed UA advances into eastern Popovka (NW Belgorod Oblast) (ISW, Mar 29); reports suggest UA advanced 3-4 km into Belgorod Oblast, breaching first RU defense line (Reuters/Tsaplienko/BBG/ISW). RU CLAIM (Mar 31): WarGonzo/Rybar claim UA attempts to attack near Popovka (Belgorod) were unsuccessful; Rybar notes RU ГрВ «Север» claims UA attempted 3 breakthroughs near Popovka & 1 near Demydovka, alleges UA reinforcing with 17th Heavy Mech Bde elements.
Pokrovsk Direction:
RU CLAIM (Reinforced): Russian MoD confirmed liberation of Zaporizhzhia settlement (Donetsk Oblast) (Mar 31).
RU CLAIM: Fighting claimed near Bohdanivka, advancing towards Troitske (Dva Mayora, Rybar Mar 31).
RU CLAIM (NEW): UA transferring reserves and attempting counterattacks near Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) (Pushilin via TASS, Mar 31). Previous RU claims near Katerynivka, Troitske, Kotlyarivka, Novosilka require verification.
Toretsk Direction:
RU CLAIM (Reinforced): Following claimed capture of Oleksandropil/Panteleimonivka, RU sources (Dva Mayora map/text, Rybar Mar 31) claim forces reached outskirts of Valentynivka and fight for Tarasivka.
RU CLAIM (NEW): UA transferring reserves and attempting counterattacks near Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk) (Pushilin via TASS, Mar 31).
UA Source Report (NEW): Captured RU soldiers (9th Brigade) near Toretsk reportedly used as "bait" to expose UA tank positions, indicating potential poor training/tactics (Butusov Plus, Mar 31).
UA Confirmed (Mar 30) RU advance near Panteleimonivka. RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Drone-artillery strikes claimed on UA targets in Panteleimonivka.
Novopavlivsk Direction:
RU CLAIM (Reinforced): Russian sources (Dva Mayora, WarGonzo, Rybar Mar 31) claim forces advanced into the center of Razliv and are fighting/advancing on flanks.
RU CLAIM (Mar 31): "Vostok" Group claims advances/inflicting casualties near Razliv, Vesyoly, Bogatyr, Otradne.
Huliaipole Direction:RU CLAIM (Mar 31): "Vostok" Group claims advances/inflicting casualties near Volnoye Pole.
Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar area): Intense fighting near Chasiv Yar involving RU VDV (98th Division). UGS reports 2 clashes near Stupochky / towards Bila Hora (past 24h). WarGonzo claims fighting in/around Chasiv Yar, no significant LBS changes (Mar 31). RU CLAIM (NEW): UA transferring reserves and attempting counterattacks near Chasiv Yar (Pushilin via TASS, Mar 31).
Lyman Direction:UA confirms RU advance near Novoie (Mar 30). Terny previously assessed almost fully RU-occupied. RU CLAIM (NEW): RU MoD claims "Krot" robotic complexes destroyed UA 64th Brigade strongpoints near Yampil (TASS, Mar 31). RU claims (Mar 29) advances near Makeevka/Novolyubivka. UGS reports 16 RU attacks repelled (past 24h).
Kupyansk Direction:
UA CLAIM (NEW): Ukrainian forces (OSUV Khortytsia) destroyed a Russian pontoon bridge crossing attempt using a TMM heavy mechanized bridge over the Oskil River near Dvorichna (Kharkiv Oblast) (Shef Hayabusa, Mar 31).
RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Expansion of bridgeheads N of Kupyansk (right bank Oskil) (Dva Mayora, Rybar).
RU claimed capture of Krasne Pershe (Kharkiv Oblast) (Mar 29). UGS reports 4 attacks stopped near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Krasne Pershe (past 24h).
Orikhiv Direction:
RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Fighting near Shcherbaky (Dva Mayora, WarGonzo, Rybar), tank destroyed near Novodanylivka (Dva Mayora, Rybar). RU MoD previously claimed liberation of Shcherbaki (Zaporizhzhia) (Mar 29). UGS reports 4 attacks repelled near Mali Shcherbaky & Stepove (past 24h). WarGonzo claims no major LBS changes (Mar 31).
Ukrainian aviation, missile troops, and artillery hit 14 Russian concentration areas (personnel/equipment) and 1 command post (UGS).
UA CLAIM (NEW): OSUV Khortytsia reports destruction of RU pontoon bridge crossing attempt (TMM bridge) over Oskil River near Dvorichna (Kharkiv Obl.) (Shef Hayabusa, Mar 31).
UA CLAIM (NEW): "Vartovi" drone battalion destroyed RU Zala reconnaissance UAV over Sumy Oblast (Sternenko, Mar 31).
Video released allegedly showing UA "Combined Rifle Brigade" destroying RU armor (Tsaplienko, Mar 31).
Video released showing UA 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade drone strikes on RU positions (trenches, bunkers, personnel) (Mar 31). Drone types include "IRPIN Drone", "ZLUKI BOBRY".
Video released showing UA 80th Separate Air Assault Brigade "Foxtrot" drone company operations. Highlights use of various drones (Mavic mods, hexacopters, FPV bombers like "Vampire"), adaptation to EW, targeting RU positions/equipment/personnel. Notes in-house workshop.
Video released showing UA Air Force strikes using precision-guided munitions (GBU-39, GBU-62, AASM Hammer 250) against ground targets (Butusov Plus, Mar 31).
UA CLAIM (Previous): Drone attack reported against Shaykovka airfield (Kaluga Oblast, Russia). Consequences being clarified (Tsaplienko, Mar 31).
Enemy Tactics/Capabilities:
Continued heavy reliance on KABs, kamikaze drones (Shahed/Geran), and massed artillery fire.
NEW Claim: Reported use of "Krot" robotic complexes near Yampil (TASS/RU MoD).
NEW Claim: Reported use of "Rubikon" drones in Kursk Oblast (TASS/RU MoD).
Reported use of poorly trained/equipped personnel as "bait" near Toretsk (Butusov Plus).
Insights from RU assault group commander interview: Emphasis on kit (explosives, comms), psychological tactics for surrender, breaching walls in urban combat (Colonelcassad).
Reported use of camouflaged 2S5 Giatsint-S artillery employing fire-and-move tactics (RU Source - Basurin, Mar 31).
Potential testing/deployment of net-deploying drones as counter-UAV measure (RU Source video - Dva Mayora, Mar 31).
RU claims use of fiber-optic guided FPV drones (range up to 35km claimed) (RU Source - Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Mar 31).
RU claim of coordinated drone operations (multiple units) against UA infantry on Shakhtarsk direction (RU Source - Voin DV, Mar 31).
RU claims placement of artillery (D-30 howitzers) within residential areas (RU Source - Basurin, Mar 31, image analysis).
II. Air & Strike Campaign
Mass Drone/Missile Attack (Overnight Mar 30/31):
Scale: Russia launched 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles (from Kursk Oblast), 131 Shahed-type UAVs, and 45 decoy drones from multiple directions (Millerovo, Kursk, Bryansk, Orel, Primorsko-Akhtarsk) (UA Air Force, UGS).
Interceptions: Ukrainian Air Force and Defense Forces confirmed destruction of 57 Shahed-type UAVs. 45 decoy UAVs were reportedly "locationally lost" without negative consequences. Both Iskander-M missiles were NOT intercepted (UA Air Force, UGS, Operatyvnyi ZSU).
RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Iskander strike(s) targeted Sumy Oblast. Geran UAVs targeted objectives in Kyiv and Zhytomyr Oblasts. Geran-2 strike claimed against UA UAV control point (TASS/RU MoD video).
Tactical Aviation / KABs: Threat remains high.
Threat Active (06:44 UTC Mar 31): Alert for RU KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast (UA Air Force).
Threat Active (06:28 UTC Mar 31): Alert for RU KAB launches towards Donetsk Oblast (UA Air Force).
Threat Ongoing (06:20 UTC Mar 31): Alert for RU tactical aviation activity on eastern front, threat of air strikes for frontline oblasts (UA Air Force).
Past 24h: RU conducted 116 air strikes using 223 KABs against UA territory, plus 20 air strikes (31 KABs) in the Kursk operational zone (UGS).
Specific Impacts (Recent):
Kupyansk City (Kharkiv Obl.): KAB strike on 5-story building (Mar 30) caused fire, damaged vehicles, injured 5 civilians (Kharkiv OVA, ASTRA, Sever Realii).
