Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 31, 2025, 06:25 UTC
(Incorporating information up to March 31, 06:25 UTC)
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. Over the past 24 hours (as of 06:00 UTC Mar 31), 171 combat engagements were recorded across the front (UGS). The highest intensity persists along the Pokrovsk Direction (73 attacks stopped). Significant combat activity continues on the Lyman (16 attacks), Toretsk (17 attacks), Novopavlivsk (11 attacks) directions, and across the Kursk/Belgorod border region (21 attacks stopped in Kursk operational zone). Other active directions include Kupyansk (6), Siversk (5), Orikhiv (4), Kramatorsk (2), Huliaipole (2), Prydniprovsky (2), and Kharkiv (4).
Russian Main Efforts: Primary offensive focus remains directed towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure is observed towards Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and Chasiv Yar. Russian forces maintain efforts to expand combat operations into Sumy Oblast and continue attempts to advance along multiple axes in Donetsk Oblast. Efforts continue to consolidate control and advance within the Kursk border area. Russian sources (Rybar) reiterate narrative of ongoing operations in Huyevo (Kursk) and Basivka (Sumy), anticipating fighting for Oleshnia (Kursk).
Russian Strike Campaign: Russia continues large-scale air and drone attacks. Overnight Mar 30/31, Russia launched 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles (from Kursk Oblast), 131 Shahed-type UAVs, and an unspecified number of decoy drones from multiple directions (Millerovo, Kursk, Bryansk, Orel, Primorsko-Akhtarsk) (UA Air Force). Over the past 24 hours (UGS report), Russia conducted 2 missile strikes, 116 aviation strikes (using 223 KABs on Ukraine proper + 31 KABs in Kursk ops zone), employed 2,620 kamikaze drones, and executed over 5,300 shelling attacks (including 130 MLRS) against Ukrainian positions and populated areas.
Ukrainian Defensive Posture: Ukrainian forces maintain defensive lines, inflicting losses and repelling numerous assaults, notably stopping 73 attacks on the Pokrovsk direction. Active Ukrainian operations on Russian territory continue, with forces stopping 21 Russian attacks in the Kursk operational zone over the past day (UGS).
RU CLAIM (Reinforced): Russian MoD confirmed capture of Hoholivka (Gogolevka), Kursk Oblast (Mar 31 video). RU VDV elements involved.
RU CLAIM (Reinforced/New): Russian sources (Dva Mayora, WarGonzo Mar 31, Rybar Mar 31) claim ongoing fighting/liberation in Huyevo (Kursk) (WarGonzo claims "practically liberated") and Basivka (Sumy). Anticipate fighting for Oleshnia (Kursk) (Dva Mayora, Rybar); WarGonzo claims RU forces attempting to reach Oleshnia from two directions.
RU CLAIM (NEW): Russian MoD sources claim UA forces mined territory in Sudzha district (Kursk) with NATO-standard munitions during withdrawal (TASS, Mar 31). Video provided allegedly shows demining.
RU CLAIM (NEW - Kursk): Russian Rosgvardia claims destruction of a Ukrainian BMP Bradley using a drone in Kursk Oblast as it attempted to approach RU positions (TASS, Mar 31).
RU claims (Mar 30) control northern Uspenivka; narrative of Sudzha "liberated" persists.
UA Confirmed Advance (Previous): Confirmed UA advances into eastern Popovka (NW Belgorod Oblast) (ISW, Mar 29); reports suggest UA advanced 3-4 km into Belgorod Oblast, breaching first RU defense line (Reuters/Tsaplienko/BBG/ISW). RU CLAIM (Mar 31): WarGonzo/Rybar claim UA attempts to attack near Popovka (Belgorod) were unsuccessful; Rybar notes RU ГрВ «Север» claims UA attempted 3 breakthroughs near Popovka & 1 near Demydovka, alleges UA reinforcing with 17th Heavy Mech Bde elements.
RU Assessment (Alaudinov via TASS, Mar 31): Alleges UA goal in Kursk/Belgorod border operations was to stretch Russian resources by trying to seize small areas.
Pokrovsk Direction:
RU CLAIM (Reinforced): Russian MoD confirmed liberation of Zaporizhzhia settlement (Donetsk Oblast) (Mar 31 via Dva Mayora, WarGonzo, Rybar).
RU CLAIM: Fighting claimed near Bohdanivka, advancing towards Troitske (Dva Mayora, Rybar Mar 31). Previous RU claims near Katerynivka, Troitske, Kotlyarivka, Novosilka require verification.
Toretsk Direction:
RU CLAIM (Reinforced): Following claimed capture of Oleksandropil/Panteleimonivka, RU sources (Dva Mayora map/text, Rybar Mar 31) claim forces reached outskirts of Valentynivka and fight for Tarasivka.
UA Confirmed (Mar 30) RU advance near Panteleimonivka. RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Drone-artillery strikes claimed on UA targets in Panteleimonivka.
Novopavlivsk Direction:
RU CLAIM (Reinforced): Russian sources (Dva Mayora, WarGonzo, Rybar Mar 31) claim forces advanced into the center of Razliv and are fighting/advancing on flanks.
RU CLAIM (Mar 31): "Vostok" Group claims advances/inflicting casualties near Razliv, Vesyoly, Bogatyr, Otradne.
Huliaipole Direction:RU CLAIM (Mar 31): "Vostok" Group claims advances/inflicting casualties near Volnoye Pole.
Andriivske Direction (Kurakhove area) / Chasiv Yar: Intense fighting near Chasiv Yar involving RU VDV (98th Division). UGS reports 2 clashes near Stupochky / towards Bila Hora (past 24h). WarGonzo claims fighting in/around Chasiv Yar, no significant LBS changes (Mar 31).
Lyman Direction:UA confirms RU advance near Novoie (Mar 30). Terny previously assessed almost fully RU-occupied. RU claims (Mar 29) advances near Makeevka/Novolyubivka. UGS reports 16 RU attacks repelled (past 24h).
Kupyansk Direction:
RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Expansion of bridgeheads N of Kupyansk (right bank Oskil) (Dva Mayora, Rybar).
RU claimed capture of Krasne Pershe (Kharkiv Oblast) (Mar 29). UGS reports 4 attacks stopped near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Krasne Pershe (past 24h).
Orikhiv Direction:
RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Fighting near Shcherbaky (Dva Mayora, WarGonzo, Rybar), tank destroyed near Novodanylivka (Dva Mayora, Rybar). RU MoD previously claimed liberation of Shcherbaki (Zaporizhzhia) (Mar 29). UGS reports 4 attacks repelled near Mali Shcherbaky & Stepove (past 24h). WarGonzo claims no major LBS changes (Mar 31).
Ukrainian aviation, missile troops, and artillery hit 14 Russian concentration areas (personnel/equipment) and 1 command post (UGS).
Video released allegedly showing UA "Combined Rifle Brigade" destroying RU armor (Tsaplienko, Mar 31).
Video released showing UA 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade drone strikes on RU positions (trenches, bunkers, personnel) (Mar 31). Drone types include "IRPIN Drone", "ZLUKI BOBRY", indicating potential unit/system names. Includes thermal imagery.
Video released showing UA 80th Separate Air Assault Brigade "Foxtrot" drone company operations. Highlights use of various drones (Mavic modifications, hexacopters, FPV bombers like "Vampire" for night ops), emphasis on adaptation to EW, and targeting of RU positions, equipment, personnel. Notes in-house workshop for modifications. Includes recruitment appeal.
Video released showing UA Air Force strikes using precision-guided munitions (GBU-39, GBU-62, AASM Hammer 250) against ground targets (Butusov Plus, Mar 31). Targets appear to be buildings/structures in populated areas near water.
UA CLAIM (NEW): Drone attack reported against Shaykovka airfield (Kaluga Oblast, Russia). Consequences being clarified (Tsaplienko, Mar 31).
Environmental Factors: Muddy conditions reported along the front, potentially impeding movement for both sides (RU Source - Dnevnik Desantnika, Mar 31).
Enemy Tactics/Capabilities:
Continued heavy reliance on KABs, kamikaze drones (Shahed/Geran), and massed artillery fire.
Reported use of camouflaged 2S5 Giatsint-S artillery employing fire-and-move tactics to mitigate counter-battery fire (RU Source - Basurin, Mar 31).
Potential testing/deployment of net-deploying drones as a counter-UAV measure (RU Source video - Dva Mayora, Mar 31).
RU claims use of fiber-optic guided FPV drones (e.g., from "GoDrone") to strike targets, citing resistance to EW and weather independence. Range claims up to 35km (RU Source - Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Mar 31).
RU claim of coordinated drone operations (36th GMRB, 656th MRR, 43rd Spetsnaz Coy, 430th MRR - Vostok group) against UA infantry on Shakhtarsk direction (RU Source - Voin DV, Mar 31). Video shows thermal imagery tracking potential targets.
RU claims placement of artillery (D-30 howitzers) within residential areas, alleging UA uses civilians as shields (RU Source - Basurin, Mar 31, image analysis).
II. Air & Strike Campaign
Mass Drone/Missile Attack (Overnight Mar 30/31):
Scale: Russia launched 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles (from Kursk Oblast), 131 Shahed-type UAVs, and 45 decoy drones (locationally lost, no negative consequences reported) from multiple directions (Millerovo, Kursk, Bryansk, Orel, Primorsko-Akhtarsk) (UA Air Force, UGS).
Interceptions: Ukrainian Air Force and Defense Forces (AD, EW, mobile fire groups) confirmed destruction of 57 Shahed-type UAVs in northern, eastern, and central regions (UA Air Force, UGS). Both Iskander-M missiles were NOT intercepted (Operatyvnyi ZSU).
RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Iskander strike(s) targeted Sumy Oblast (Dva Mayora, Rybar). Geran UAVs targeted objectives in Kyiv and Zhytomyr Oblasts (Dva Mayora, Rybar). Geran-2 strike claimed against UA UAV control point (TASS/RU MoD video).
Tactical Aviation / KABs: Threat remains high. Over past 24h, RU conducted 116 air strikes using 223 KABs against UA territory, plus 20 air strikes (31 KABs) in the Kursk operational zone (UGS). Threat ongoing (06:20 UTC Mar 31): Alert for RU tactical aviation activity on eastern front, threat of air strikes for frontline oblasts (UA Air Force).
Specific Impacts (Recent):
Kupyansk City (Kharkiv Obl.): KAB strike on 5-story building (18:30 UTC Mar 30) caused fire, damaged 6 vehicles, injured 5 civilians (2M, 3F) - hospitalized (Kharkiv OVA, ASTRA).
Multiple strikes overnight (Mar 30/31). Impacts confirmed: Production building roof & warehouse (fire) (05:03 UTC Mar 31); workshop building (02:29 UTC Mar 31) causing damage to 3 apartment blocks (windows), kindergarten (windows/facade), 2 cars, 3 civilians injured (stress reaction, abrasions) (Kharkiv OVA, Sternenko, ASTRA). Total 6 explosions reported overnight (Kharkiv Mayor via ASTRA). RU sources claim strikes targeted production/warehouse facilities (RVvoenkor).
Derhachi (Kharkiv Oblast): Shahed impact caused large grass fire (2500 sq.m.) (05:02 UTC Mar 31).
Kyiv Oblast: Overnight (Mar 30/31), 49 UAVs detected in/around Kyiv airspace. 11 destroyed by AD, 30 left airspace, remainder "locationally lost". No casualties/damage within Kyiv city limits (KMVA, Mar 31).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast:3 Shahed-type UAVs shot down over the oblast overnight (Mar 30/31) (Lysak/Vilkul, Mar 31).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Russian shelling damaged high-voltage power line and 10 dacha houses in a cooperative overnight. Power outage in part of Kushuhum settlement (Zaporizhzhia OVA, Operatyvno ZSU, Sternenko Mar 31).
Overall (Past 24h): Russia employed 2,620 kamikaze drones (UGS). Ukraine claims 57 Shahed-type UAVs shot down overnight Mar 30/31 out of 131 launched (UA Air Force).
Ballistic/Cruise Missile Threat:
Past 24h: Russia launched 2 Iskander-M ballistic missile strikes overnight Mar 30/31 (UA Air Force).
Naval Threat:ACTIVE.2 Russian Kalibr carriers in Black Sea (up to 8 missiles); 3 carriers in Mediterranean Sea (up to 26 missiles). No vessels in Azov Sea (UA Navy via UGS, Mar 31, 04:00 UTC).
Confirmed Impact (Recent): Ballistic missile strike in Shostka, Sumy Oblast (~22:20 UTC, Mar 30). Kryvyi Rih (Mar 29, 9 WIA).
Other Strike Activity (Recent):
Nikopol District, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Russian forces attacked Nikopol city, Marhanets, Pokrovska, and Myrivska communities overnight (Mar 30/31) using kamikaze drones and artillery. Damage confirmed to an enterprise, administrative building, 2 private houses, and a gas pipeline. No civilian casualties reported (Lysak/Vilkul, Mar 31).
RU CLAIM (NEW Video/Claim Mar 31): RU drone strike damaged tank engine compartment, preventing arrival at frontline (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
RU CLAIM (NEW Video/Claim Mar 31): RU drone operators (36th GMRB, 656th MRR, 43rd Spetsnaz Coy, 430th MRR - Vostok group) destroyed UA "sabotage group" in Shakhtarsk direction (Colonelcassad/Voin_dv).
RU CLAIM (NEW - Mar 31): RU artillery (2S5 Giatsint-S, 25th CAA, "West" group) claim destruction of UA M777 howitzer, radar, UAV control point, and personnel using rapid fire tactics (Basurin).
RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Destruction of UA PVD/infantry group in Panteleimonivka (Toretsk Dir.) using drone-spotted artillery.
RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Destruction of a Ukrainian ammunition supply point ("Vostok" group).
RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Geran-2 strike claimed against UA UAV control point (TASS/RU MoD video).
Activity Targeting Russian Territory:
UA CLAIM (NEW): Drone attack reported against Shaykovka airfield (Kaluga Oblast, Russia). Consequences being clarified (Tsaplienko, Mar 31). RU sources have not yet corroborated this specific claim.
RU CLAIM (Consolidated - Overnight Mar 30/31): Russian MoD claims destruction of 66 Ukrainian UAVs overnight: 41 over Bryansk Oblast, 24 over Kaluga Oblast (Kirovsky district), 1 over Kursk Oblast. No casualties/damage reported by RU authorities (Multiple RU sources Mar 31). Rybar notes UAVs downed over Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts.
RU CLAIM (NEW): Russian FSB claims nearly 190 Ukrainian air attacks (mostly UAVs) thwarted over occupied Donetsk Oblast (DNR) in past week (TASS, Mar 31).
RU CLAIM (NEW - Kursk): Russian Rosgvardia claims destruction of a Ukrainian BMP Bradley using a drone in Kursk Oblast as it attempted to approach RU positions (TASS, Mar 31).
RU CLAIM (Belgorod Oblast - Mar 31): UAV struck private sector in Ivanovskaya Lisitsa (Graisvoronsky Dist.), injuring Deputy Head of District Admin. Strikes also reported in Nadezhevka, Ivanovskaya Lisitsa, Golovchino, Berezovka (Rybar).
III. Ground Combat Operations (Based on UGS Report Mar 31, 06:00 UTC & other sources)
(A) Eastern Front (Donbas)
Pokrovsk Direction:Highest Intensity (73 attacks stopped past 24h). Attacks repelled near Oleksandropil, Kalynove, Vodiane Druhe, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Lysivka, Zelene, Kotlyne, Udachne, Andriivka; and towards Malynivka, Kotlyarivka, Bohdanivka, Oleksiivka (UGS). RU MoD confirms liberation of Zaporizhzhia settlement. RU claims fighting near Bohdanivka and towards Troitske (Dva Mayora, Rybar); RU fighting near Razliv (WarGonzo).
Toretsk Direction:High Intensity (17 attacks past 24h). Attacks repelled near Krymske, Toretsk; and towards Dyliivka (UGS). RU claims advance to outskirts of Valentynivka, heavy fighting for Tarasivka (Dva Mayora, Rybar). Drone/artillery strikes claimed on UA targets within Panteleimonivka.
Lyman Direction:High Intensity (16 attacks past 24h). Attacks repelled near Nadiia, Yampolivka, Kolodyazi; and towards Bohuslavka, Nove, Novomykhailivka (UGS). UA confirms RU advance near Novoie (Mar 30). Terny assessed almost fully RU-occupied.
Novopavlivsk Direction:(11 attacks stopped past 24h) Attacks repelled near Kostyantynopil; and towards Rozlyv, Vesele (UGS). RU claims advance into center of Razliv (Dva Mayora, WarGonzo, Rybar). RU "Vostok" Group claims advances/casualties near Razliv, Vesyoly, Bogatyr, Otradne.
Kramatorsk Direction (incl. Chasiv Yar):(2 clashes past 24h). Clashes reported near Stupochky and towards Bila Hora (UGS). Intense fighting continues near Chasiv Yar (WarGonzo claim, no significant LBS change).
Siversk Direction:(5 attacks past 24h) Attacks repelled near Verkhnokamyanske & Ivano-Darivka (UGS). RU claims maneuvers towards Hryhorivka (Dva Mayora, Rybar).
(B) Northeastern Front
Kharkiv Direction:(4 attacks stopped past 24h) Attacks repelled near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Krasne Pershe (UGS, Kharkiv OVA).
Kupyansk Direction:(6 attacks past 24h) Attacks repelled near Radkivka, Pishchane, Bohuslavka, Petropavlivka, Zahryzove (UGS, Kharkiv OVA). RU claims expansion of bridgeheads N of Kupyansk (Dva Mayora, Rybar).
(C) Southern Front
Huliaipole Direction:(2 attacks past 24h) Attacks repelled near Pryvilne and towards Vilne Pole (UGS). RU "Vostok" Group claims advances/casualties near Volnoye Pole (Mar 31).
Orikhiv Direction:(4 attacks past 24h) Attacks repelled near Mali Shcherbaky & Stepove (UGS). RU claims fighting near Shcherbaky (WarGonzo, Dva Mayora, Rybar). RU MoD previously claimed Shcherbaki liberation (Mar 29). RU claimed tank destroyed near Novodanylivka (Rybar).
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson):(2 unsuccessful attacks past 24h) Russian attacks towards Sadove repelled (UGS). Positional fighting persists. Rybar narrative (Mar 31) claims UA Krynky bridgehead eliminated by Oct 2024, RU tactical gains near Kozachi Laheri/Aleshky by Mar 2025, and alleges continued UA shelling of civilian infrastructure on the left bank.
Intensity: Intense fighting continues. UGS reported stopping 21 Russian attacks in the Kursk operational zone over the past day. Russia conducted 20 air strikes (31 KABs) and 347 artillery attacks (5 MLRS) against UA positions/settlements in this zone (UGS).
Specific Locations/Claims: RU claims ongoing fighting/near liberation of Huyevo (Kursk) and fighting in Basivka (Sumy) (WarGonzo, Rybar). RU attempts reported towards Oleshnia (Kursk) from two directions (WarGonzo/Dva Mayora, Rybar). RU claims UA unsuccessfully attempted attacks near Popovka (Belgorod) (WarGonzo, Rybar). RU CLAIM (NEW - Kursk): RU Rosgvardia destroyed UA BMP Bradley with drone in Kursk Oblast (TASS). RU CLAIM (Belgorod): UAV strike injured official in Ivanovskaya Lisitsa, other settlements shelled (Rybar).
IV. Political & Economic Context
US-Ukraine Resource Agreement Talks: Discussions continue. Russian sources amplify statements by D. Trump alleging Zelenksyy wants to abandon a "rare earth deal" and faces "big problems" if he does. Trump also reiterated skepticism about Ukraine's NATO prospects (Colonelcassad, Zona SVO, RVvoenkor Mar 31). Russian sources (Dva Mayora, RVvoenkor) report RU special representative K. Dmitriev stating Russia and US have begun discussions on rare earth metals and potential US corporate investment in projects in Russia, potentially including occupied regions.
EU-Russia Sanctions: Russian MFA official states EU may maintain sanctions against Russia even if the US softens its stance (TASS, Mar 31).
International Relations: Russian MFA official claims some European politicians regret rejecting Russia's security proposals from late 2021 (TASS, Mar 31). Iran's Khamenei stated US attack on Iran unlikely, promised harsh response to internal dissent (TASS, Mar 31).
Lithuanian Training Incident: Lithuanian MoD reports completion of operation to recover a US military ARV (Armored Recovery Vehicle) sunk in a swamp (Operatyvnyi ZSU).
V. Information Environment & Other Notes
Ukrainian Remembrance: Daily minute of silence at 09:00 observed across Ukraine to honor fallen defenders (KMVA, UGS, Zaporizhzhia OVA, Operatyvnyi ZSU).
Ukrainian Logistics/Support: Fundraising continues for basic soldier needs like field cots (RBC-Ukraina).
Internal Ukrainian Issues: Ukrainian sources highlight alleged misconduct by "military lawyers" potentially linked to creating propaganda for Russia, including past arrests for drug trafficking while impersonating military personnel (Anatoliy Shtefan). Focus on alleged illegal actions by police/TCC in mobilization context.
Russian Internal Political/Social: Russian Duma considering legislation against mandatory additional services for consumers (TASS). Russian prosecutors reviewing/annulling rehabilitation decisions for WWII-era prisoners in Magadan, deeming some "accomplices of enemy forces" (ASTRA). Vandalism reported at grave of deceased Russian war correspondent in Crimea (TASS).
Russian Military Blogger Commentary: Fighterbomber notes lack of major news, discusses front situation, potential large offensive, rotation/demobilization prospects (Fighterbomber). Rybar provides a consolidated morning brief covering multiple axes.
