Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 31, 2025, 03:56 UTC
(Incorporating information up to March 31, 03:56 UTC)
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. The highest intensity persists along the Pokrovsk Direction. Significant combat activity continues on the Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk directions, the Andriivske direction (Kurakhove area), and across the Kursk/Belgorod border region. (Note: UGS reported 147 clashes as of Mar 30, 19:00 UTC).
Russian Main Efforts: Primary offensive focus remains directed towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure is observed towards Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and Chasiv Yar. Russian forces maintain efforts to expand combat operations into Sumy Oblast and continue attempts to advance along multiple axes in Donetsk Oblast. Efforts continue to consolidate control and advance within the Kursk border area. Russian sources claim continued advances by the "Vostok" Group of Forces in areas such as Razliv, Vesyoly, Bogatyr, Otradne, and Volnoye Pole (Novopavlivsk/Huliaipole directions).
RU CLAIM (Reinforced): Russian MoD released video (Mar 31) showing flag raising at a WWII memorial in Hoholivka (Gogolevka), Kursk Oblast, reinforcing claims of capture amidst significant destruction.
RU CLAIM (NEW - Verification Required): Russian sources (Dva Mayora, Mar 31) claim ongoing "liberation" operations in Huyevo (Kursk Oblast) and Basivka (Sumy Oblast), and anticipate fighting for Oleshnia (Kursk Oblast) near the border.
RU claims (Mar 30) control northern Uspenivka; narrative of Sudzha "liberated" persists. Ongoing fighting reported within RU border settlements.
Pokrovsk Direction:
RU CLAIM (Reinforced): Russian MoD confirmed (via Dva Mayora, Mar 31) the liberation of Zaporizhzhia settlement (Donetsk Oblast).
RU CLAIM (NEW - Verification Required): Russian sources claim ongoing fighting near Bohdanivka and advancing towards Troitske (Dva Mayora, Mar 31).
UA confirmed (Mar 27) incremental RU advance near Katerynivka.
Toretsk Direction:
RU CLAIM (NEW - Verification Required): Following claimed capture of Oleksandropil and Panteleimonivka, Russian sources (Dva Mayora, Mar 31) claim forces reached the outskirts of Valentynivka and are engaged in heavy fighting for Tarasivka.
UA confirmed (Mar 30) RU advance near Panteleimonivka. NEW RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Russian sources report successful drone-artillery strikes (2S1 Gvozdika, 2A36 Giatsint-B) targeting a claimed UA temporary deployment point (PVD) and infantry group in Panteleimonivka, coordinated by elements of the 68th Tank Rgt (150th Div) and 346th Spetsnaz Bde. RU source maps (Mar 30) depict RU control E/S of Toretsk.
Novopavlivsk Direction:
RU CLAIM (Reinforced): Russian sources (Dva Mayora, Mar 31) claim forces advanced into the center of Razliv. Previous RU claims (Mar 29) of entry into Razliv.
NEW RU CLAIM (Mar 31): "Vostok" Group claims advances and inflicting casualties (>140 KIA/WIA, 3 EW stations lost) on UA forces in areas including Razliv, Vesyoly, Bogatyr, Otradne (Requires Verification). Previous RU claims (Mar 30) near Zaporizhzhia (Donetsk settlement), Preobrazhenka, Bohdanivka, Troitske, Kotlyarivka, Novosilka require ongoing verification.
Huliaipole Direction:NEW RU CLAIM (Mar 31): "Vostok" Group claims advances and inflicting casualties in areas including Volnoye Pole (Requires Verification). Previous RU claims (Mar 27) of breaking into Vilne Pole.
Andriivske Direction (Kurakhove area): UA confirmed (Mar 30) RU advance in Rozlyv.
Lyman Direction: UA confirmed (Mar 30) RU advance near Novoie. Terny previously assessed almost fully RU-occupied.
Kupyansk Direction:
RU CLAIM (NEW - Verification Required): Russian sources (Dva Mayora, Mar 31) claim expansion of bridgeheads north of Kupyansk on the right bank of the Oskil River.
Previous RU claims (Mar 30) of advance S of Dvurichna towards Kondrashivka require verification. UA previously confirmed RU advance near Orlyanske (Mar 27).
Orikhiv Direction:
RU CLAIM (Reinforced): Russian sources (Dva Mayora, Mar 31) report ongoing fighting near Shcherbaky and claim destruction of a UA tank near Novodanylivka.
Previous RU claims (Mar 30 morning) of Shcherbaky liberation and advances require verification.
Siversk Direction:
RU CLAIM (NEW - Verification Required): Russian sources (Dva Mayora, Mar 31) claim forces are maneuvering towards Hryhorivka.
Ukrainian Defensive Posture: Ukrainian forces maintain defensive lines, inflicting losses and repelling numerous assaults. Operations focus on degrading Russian offensive capability. Active Ukrainian operations on Russian territory continue to disrupt Russian staging efforts (President Zelenskyy, Mar 29). RU CLAIM (NEW): Russian sources (Dva Mayora, Mar 31) allege Ukraine is reinforcing the Belgorod border direction with elements of the 17th Heavy Mechanized Brigade.
II. Air & Strike Campaign
Tactical Aviation Threat:ACTIVE (Southern Axis). Persists on northeastern and eastern axes. Threat of air-launched weapon strikes declared for frontline oblasts, particularly southern/southeastern (UA AF, 03:11 UTC). Previous threat alert for frontline oblasts (UA AF, 01:08 UTC).
Shahed/Geran UAV Attacks:
Current Activity/Locations (as of 03:56 UTC): Threat likely subsided in most areas previously active.
Recent Impacts (Confirmed):
Kharkiv:Multiple explosions confirmed in Kharkiv city overnight (at least six reported as of 02:57 UTC). All impacts localized to the Kyivskyi district, causing significant fires at impact sites. Damage confirmed to glazing and facade of a children's institution, broken windows in adjacent multi-story buildings, and damage to several private vehicles. Emergency services responding. No casualties reported as of 02:20 UTC (Kharkiv OVA). Attack involved multiple waves of UAVs. Interceptions reported near Kharkiv (~02:32 UTC, ~02:56 UTC).
Kharkiv (Previous): Previous drone impact confirmed at civilian enterprise in Kyivskyi district (Mar 30, 23:37 UTC). Blast wave damaged nearby apartments, kindergarten, cultural/sports complex. 2 civilians treated for acute stress reaction.
RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Russian sources (Dva Mayora) claim Geran UAVs targeted objectives in Kyiv and Zhytomyr Oblasts.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Explosions reported earlier (Mar 30). Air Alert Active again (Zaporizhzhia OVA, 03:09 UTC).
Previous Confirmed Major Impacts: Kharkiv (Mar 29 night: 2 KIA, 30 WIA, military hospital hit). Kryvyi Rih (Mar 29/30: 9 WIA). Poltava city (Mar 27: industrial zone). Energy infrastructure damage confirmed from multiple recent RU strikes.
Ballistic Missile Threat: No current active alerts. Previous alert for NE direction cancelled.
Confirmed Impact (Recent): Ballistic missile strike reported in Shostka, Sumy Oblast (~22:20 UTC, Mar 30).
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Use remains high (120 KABs reported by UGS as of 19:00 UTC, Mar 30). ACTIVE THREAT:KAB launches reported towards the Zaporizhzhia / Donetsk / Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border area (UA AF, 03:11 UTC). Previous launches reported towards Donetsk Oblast (01:32 UTC) and Sumy (Mar 31, 00:45 UTC). Persistent threat, particularly to northern and eastern border regions.
Naval Missile Threat:ACTIVE.2 Russian Kalibr carriers detected in the Black Sea, capable of launching a total salvo of up to 8 missiles (Ukrainian Navy via RBC-Ukraina, Mar 31 morning). No Russian vessels reported in the Azov Sea.
Other Strike Activity (Recent):
UGS reported 1 missile strike, ~750 kamikaze drone attacks, ~4,000 artillery/mortar/MLRS shelling incidents (as of 19:00 UTC, Mar 30).
NEW RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Russian forces (68th Tank Rgt, 346th Spetsnaz Bde, 238th Artillery Bde) claim destruction of a UA temporary deployment point (PVD) and infantry group in Panteleimonivka (Toretsk Direction) using drone-spotted artillery (2S1 Gvozdika, 2A36 Giatsint-B). (Video evidence provided, verification of outcomes needed).
NEW RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Russian MoD ("Vostok" group) claims destruction of a Ukrainian ammunition supply point. (Requires verification).
NEW RU CLAIM/Footage (Mar 31): Russian sources shared footage allegedly showing drone operations (thermal imaging, targeting) by RU 36th Motor Rifle Brigade and 14th Spetsnaz Brigade ("Vostok" group) in the Shakhtarsk direction (likely Novopavlivsk/Vuhledar area). (Propaganda showcasing capabilities).
RU Claims (Older): FPV strike on tank (Novodanylivka), Lancet strike on vehicle (Shcherbynivka), Radar strike (Petrushivka, Sumy), Strike on personnel (up to 170 SBU/GUR/mercenaries). Require verification.
Activity Targeting Russian Territory:
RU CLAIM (Reinforced): Russian MoD/Kaluga Governor confirms 24 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Kirovsky district, Kaluga Oblast overnight; no casualties/damage reported (Mar 31).
RU CLAIM (NEW): Russian FSB claims nearly 190 Ukrainian air attacks (presumably mostly UAVs) were thwarted over occupied Donetsk Oblast (DNR) in the past week (TASS, Mar 31). Video analysis of wreckage shown suggests use of small fixed-wing UAVs, larger types, and potentially improvised munitions.
Ongoing UAV/Artillery pressure reported, particularly in Kursk/Belgorod Oblasts. Missile danger alerts periodically issued (e.g., Bryansk Oblast, Mar 30). RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Dva Mayora reports continued UA attacks impacting civilian areas in Belgorod Oblast (Popovka, Demydovka, Ivanivska Lisytsia, Nadezhivka, Golovchino, Berezovka), claiming injury to a local official in Grayvoronsky district.
III. Ground Combat Operations
(Based on UGS report Mar 30, 19:00 UTC, and incorporating recent claims, particularly from RU source 'Dva Mayora' summary Mar 31)
(A) Eastern Front (Donbas)
Pokrovsk Direction:Highest Intensity. Russian MoD confirms liberation of Zaporizhzhia settlement. RU claims fighting near Bohdanivka and towards Troitske. UGS reported persistent attacks (Mar 30) near Oleksandropil, Kalynove, Kotlyne, Udachne, etc. UA confirmed RU advance near Katerynivka (Mar 27).
Toretsk Direction:High Intensity. RU claims advance to outskirts of Valentynivka after taking Oleksandropil/Panteleimonivka; heavy fighting claimed for Tarasivka. Drone/artillery strikes claimed on UA targets within Panteleimonivka. UA confirms RU advance near Panteleimonivka (Mar 30). UGS reported attacks (Mar 30) near Krymske, Toretsk, towards Dyliivka.
Lyman Direction:High Intensity. Attacks near Nadiia, Yampolivka, Kolodiazi; towards Nove, Novomykhailivka (UGS report, Mar 30). UA confirms RU advance near Novoie (Mar 30). Terny assessed almost fully RU-occupied.
Novopavlivsk Direction: RU claims advance into center of Razliv. RU "Vostok" Group claims advances/inflicting casualties near Razliv, Vesyoly, Bogatyr, Otradne. Attacks near Kostyantynopil, towards Rozlyv, Vesele (UGS report, Mar 30).
Kramatorsk Direction (incl. Chasiv Yar & Andriivske Direction): Attacks near Stupochky, towards Bila Hora (UGS report, Mar 30). UA confirms RU advance in Rozlyv (Mar 30). Intense fighting near Chasiv Yar.
Siversk Direction: RU claims maneuvers towards Hryhorivka. Clashes near Verkhnokamyanske, Ivano-Darivka (UGS report, Mar 30).
(B) Northeastern Front
Kupyansk Direction: RU claims expansion of bridgeheads N of Kupyansk (right bank Oskil). Assaults repelled near Radkivka, Pishchane, Bohuslavka, etc. (UGS report, Mar 30). KAB strike on Kupyansk center reported (Mar 30).
Kharkiv Direction: Assaults reported near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Krasne Pershe (UGS report, Mar 30). Sustained Shahed attack on Kharkiv city overnight (Updated details above).
(C) Southern Front
Huliaipole Direction: RU "Vostok" Group claims advances/inflicting casualties near Volnoye Pole. Attacks repelled near Pryvilne, towards Vilne Pole (UGS report, Mar 30).
Orikhiv Direction: RU claims fighting near Shcherbaky and UA tank destroyed near Novodanylivka. Attacks repelled towards Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove (UGS report, Mar 30). Air Alert Active (Zaporizhzhia OVA, 03:09 UTC). Active KAB threat towards Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk border area (UA AF, 03:11 UTC).
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): Unsuccessful RU attacks towards Sadove (UGS report, Mar 30). Positional fighting.
Intensity: Intense fighting and heavy Russian strikes continue. UGS reported repelling 20 Russian attacks in Kursk Oblast (as of 19:00 UTC, Mar 30).
Specific Locations & Claims:
RU CLAIM (Reinforced): Russian MoD confirms capture of Hoholivka (Gogolevka) in Kursk Oblast (Mar 31), provides visual media.
RU CLAIM (NEW): Russian sources claim ongoing fighting/liberation attempts in Huyevo (Kursk) and Basivka (Sumy). Anticipate fighting for Oleshnia (Kursk).
RU claims control northern Uspenivka (Mar 30); Sudzha "liberated" narrative persists. Fighting reported within RU border settlements.
Ballistic missile strike on Shostka (Sumy) reported (Mar 30). RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Iskander strike(s) on Sumy Oblast. Active RU tactical aviation threat towards Sumy Oblast (Mar 31, 01:08 UTC). Previous UAV threat near Sumy city reported (~02:50 UTC).
RU CLAIM (NEW): UA reinforcing Belgorod border area with elements of 17th Heavy Mech Bde. Continued UA attacks claimed on Belgorod settlements.
IV. Key Developments & Other Factors
Russian Logistics: Persistent reports indicate significant shortfalls. High equipment wear/loss rates noted. NEW: Russian MoD filed lawsuits against Russian Railways (RZhD) for nearly 100 million rubles (TASS, Mar 31), potentially indicating contractual disputes or financial issues impacting military logistics. RU claims destruction of UA EW stations in Vostok AOR (Requires Verification).
Counter-Drone Tactics: Evidence of RU using drone-deployed nets (Mar 30). RU sources showcase ongoing drone recon/strike ops (thermal, night) via 36th MRB / 14th SpN (Mar 31) and 68th Tank Rgt / 346th Spetsnaz Bde / 238th Arty Bde (Mar 31). Analysis of downed UAVs claimed by RU FSB over DNR suggests UA employs varied drone types (fixed-wing, larger models) potentially carrying improvised munitions.
New Threats: Report of camouflaged 'petal' mine variant (PFM-1) via heavy drones (RU source, Mar 30). Requires vigilance.
Political/Diplomatic:
NEW (Trump/Ukraine): Former US President Trump stated President Zelenskyy is attempting to reject a deal on rare earth metals and will face "big problems" if he does so (Reuters via Tsaplienko, Mar 31). Trump also reiterated Ukraine "was never going to be a member of NATO." (Previous report noted Ukrainian context: President Zelenskyy stated (Mar 28) Ukraine received a draft US proposal on resources requiring study).
NEW (RU Stance): Russian MFA official states Russia categorically rejects the idea of peacekeepers on Ukrainian territory from countries supplying weapons to Kyiv (TASS, Mar 31).
NEW (Trump/Ceasefire): Former US President Trump reportedly has not set a deadline for seeking Russian agreement on a ceasefire in Ukraine (TASS, Mar 31).
Ukrainian source (RBC-Ukraina citing Axios) reports potential visit by former US President Trump to Saudi Arabia in May, with unnamed Saudi sources allegedly wanting a ceasefire in Ukraine achieved beforehand (Mar 31).
Russian state media (TASS) reports statements attributed to former US President Trump asserting President Zelenskyy "understands [Ukraine] will never get into NATO" (Mar 31).
Russian state media (TASS) reports former US President Trump stated he "would not want to impose secondary tariffs against Russia" (Mar 31).
Russian state media (TASS) reports EU has no intention to resume counter-terrorism cooperation with Russia (MFA official statement, Mar 31).
President Zelenskyy (Mar 30) highlighted ongoing daily Russian attacks as rejection of reported US ceasefire proposal.
UK PM Starmer / US President Trump reportedly agreed on need to maintain pressure on Putin (Mar 30).
Finnish President Stubb reportedly proposed unconditional ceasefire by April 20 (Mar 30).
Russian funds for UN contributions reportedly frozen in Gazprombank (Mar 30).
International Support: Next Ramstein meeting April 11. Ongoing deliveries/pledges.
Russian Information Operations:
NEW: Disseminating RU MoD video confirming flag raising in Hoholivka (TASS, Mar 31) to solidify territorial claims. Amplifying RU FSB claims of thwarting large numbers of UA air attacks over DNR (TASS, Mar 31). Promoting narratives of successful offensive actions via summaries (Dva Mayora, Mar 31). Using soldier-generated content (singing border guard) for morale/patriotism (Dva Mayora, Mar 31).
Amplifying claims of successful drone-artillery coordination and strikes in Panteleimonivka (Toretsk direction) (Colonelcassad, Mar 31). Amplifying claims of military success by "Vostok" Group (advances, casualties inflicted, equipment destroyed like EW stations) (TASS, Mar 31). Showcasing drone capabilities (thermal, night ops) (Colonelcassad, Mar 31). Reinforcing rejection of certain peacekeeping formats (TASS, Mar 31). Promoting narratives around Trump's stance on ceasefire deadlines, NATO, rare earths (TASS, Mar 31). Highlighting domestic patriotic events (e.g., Khabarovsk flashmob, Mar 31). Morale/propaganda posts featuring unit insignia (e.g., "Archangel Spetsnaz", "Diary of a Paratrooper", Mar 31).
Russian sources (Colonelcassad) circulated a video purportedly showing a captured Polish member of the International Legion (2nd Btn, 1st Spec Co), likely for propaganda purposes targeting foreign volunteers and exploiting POWs (Mar 31). (Note: Video claims capture occurred in October 2024).
Russian sources amplify statements attributed to former US President Trump regarding Ukraine's NATO prospects, opposition to secondary sanctions, and the rare earth metals deal, aiming to undermine Western resolve and Ukrainian aspirations/leadership.
Persistent narratives focus on alleged successes (esp. Kursk border claims like Hoholivka), high claimed UA losses, justification for strikes, and attempts to undermine international support/internal Ukrainian morale. Video depicting alleged forced mobilization ("kidnapping") circulated by RU sources (Colonelcassad, Mar 31) - likely aimed at discrediting Ukrainian mobilization efforts.
