Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 31, 2025, 03:26 UTC
(Incorporating information up to March 31, 03:26 UTC)
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. The highest intensity persists along the Pokrovsk Direction. Significant combat activity continues on the Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk directions, the Andriivske direction (Kurakhove area), and across the Kursk/Belgorod border region. (Note: UGS reported 147 clashes as of Mar 30, 19:00 UTC).
Russian Main Efforts: Primary offensive focus remains directed towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure is observed towards Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and Chasiv Yar. Russian forces maintain efforts to expand combat operations into Sumy Oblast and continue attempts to advance along multiple axes in Donetsk Oblast. Efforts continue to consolidate control and advance within the Kursk border area. Russian sources claim continued advances by the "Vostok" Group of Forces in areas such as Razliv, Vesyoly, Bogatyr, Otradne, and Volnoye Pole (Novopavlivsk/Huliaipole directions).
RU CLAIM (NEW - Verification Required): Russian sources (Voen DV, Mar 31) claim capture of Hoholivka (Gogolevka) in Kursk Oblast, posting video/photos showing flag raising amidst destruction. This follows earlier unconfirmed RU claims (Mar 29) regarding the same settlement.
RU claims (Mar 30) control northern Uspenivka; narrative of Sudzha "liberated" persists. Ongoing fighting reported within RU border settlements (e.g., Huyevo, Mar 30 morning reports).
Novopavlivsk Direction: RU claims (Mar 30) near Zaporizhzhia (Donetsk settlement), Preobrazhenka, Bohdanivka, Troitske, Kotlyarivka, Novosilka require ongoing verification/monitoring. RU sources claimed entry into Razliv (Mar 29). NEW RU CLAIM (Mar 31): "Vostok" Group claims advances and inflicting casualties (>140 KIA/WIA, 3 EW stations lost) on UA forces in areas including Razliv, Vesyoly, Bogatyr, Otradne (Requires Verification).
Huliaipole Direction:NEW RU CLAIM (Mar 31): "Vostok" Group claims advances and inflicting casualties in areas including Volnoye Pole (Requires Verification). Previous RU claims (Mar 27) of breaking into Vilne Pole.
Andriivske Direction (Kurakhove area): UA confirmed (Mar 30) RU advance in Rozlyv. RU claims (Mar 30) require verification.
Toretsk Direction: UA confirmed (Mar 30) RU advance near Panteleimonivka. NEW RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Russian sources report successful drone-artillery strikes (2S1 Gvozdika, 2A36 Giatsint-B) targeting a claimed UA temporary deployment point (PVD) and infantry group in Panteleimonivka, coordinated by elements of the 68th Tank Rgt (150th Div) and 346th Spetsnaz Bde. RU source maps (Mar 30) depict RU control E/S of Toretsk, reinforcing pressure towards the town.
Lyman Direction: UA confirmed (Mar 30) RU advance near Novoie. Terny previously assessed almost fully RU-occupied.
Kupyansk Direction: RU claims (Mar 30) of advance S of Dvurichna towards Kondrashivka require verification. UA previously confirmed RU advance near Orlyanske (Mar 27).
Pokrovsk Direction: UA confirmed (Mar 27) incremental RU advance near Katerynivka.
Orikhiv Direction: RU claims (Mar 30 morning) of Shcherbaky liberation and advances require verification.
Ukrainian Defensive Posture: Ukrainian forces maintain defensive lines, inflicting losses and repelling numerous assaults. Operations focus on degrading Russian offensive capability. Active Ukrainian operations on Russian territory continue to disrupt Russian staging efforts (President Zelenskyy, Mar 29).
II. Air & Strike Campaign
Tactical Aviation Threat:ACTIVE (Southern Axis). Persists on northeastern and eastern axes. Threat of air-launched weapon strikes declared for frontline oblasts, particularly southern/southeastern (UA AF, 03:11 UTC). Previous threat alert for frontline oblasts (UA AF, 01:08 UTC).
Shahed/Geran UAV Attacks:
Current Activity/Locations (as of 03:26 UTC): Threat likely subsided in most areas previously active.
Recent Impacts (Confirmed):
Kharkiv:Multiple explosions confirmed in Kharkiv city overnight (at least six reported as of 02:57 UTC). All impacts localized to the Kyivskyi district, causing significant fires at impact sites. Damage confirmed to glazing and facade of a children's institution, broken windows in adjacent multi-story buildings, and damage to several private vehicles. Emergency services responding. No casualties reported as of 02:20 UTC (Kharkiv OVA). Attack involved multiple waves of UAVs. Interceptions reported near Kharkiv (~02:32 UTC, ~02:56 UTC).
Kharkiv (Previous): Previous drone impact confirmed at civilian enterprise in Kyivskyi district (Mar 30, 23:37 UTC). Blast wave damaged nearby apartments, kindergarten, cultural/sports complex. 2 civilians treated for acute stress reaction.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Explosions reported earlier (Mar 30). Air Alert Active again (Zaporizhzhia OVA, 03:09 UTC).
Previous Confirmed Major Impacts: Kharkiv (Mar 29 night: 2 KIA, 30 WIA, military hospital hit). Kryvyi Rih (Mar 29/30: 9 WIA). Poltava city (Mar 27: industrial zone). Energy infrastructure damage confirmed from multiple recent RU strikes.
Ballistic Missile Threat: No current active alerts. Previous alert for NE direction cancelled.
Confirmed Impact (Recent): Ballistic missile strike reported in Shostka, Sumy Oblast (~22:20 UTC, Mar 30).
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Use remains high (120 KABs reported by UGS as of 19:00 UTC, Mar 30). ACTIVE THREAT:KAB launches reported towards the Zaporizhzhia / Donetsk / Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border area (UA AF, 03:11 UTC). Previous launches reported towards Donetsk Oblast (01:32 UTC) and Sumy (Mar 31, 00:45 UTC). Persistent threat, particularly to northern and eastern border regions. RU tactical aviation activity increases immediate KAB threat.
Naval Missile Threat:ACTIVE.2 Russian Kalibr carriers detected in the Black Sea, capable of launching a total salvo of up to 8 missiles (Ukrainian Navy via RBC-Ukraina, Mar 31 morning). No Russian vessels reported in the Azov Sea.
Other Strike Activity (Recent):
UGS reported 1 missile strike, ~750 kamikaze drone attacks, ~4,000 artillery/mortar/MLRS shelling incidents (as of 19:00 UTC, Mar 30).
NEW RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Russian forces (68th Tank Rgt, 346th Spetsnaz Bde, 238th Artillery Bde) claim destruction of a UA temporary deployment point (PVD) and infantry group in Panteleimonivka (Toretsk Direction) using drone-spotted artillery (2S1 Gvozdika, 2A36 Giatsint-B). (Video evidence provided, verification of outcomes needed).
NEW RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Russian MoD ("Vostok" group) claims destruction of a Ukrainian ammunition supply point. (Requires verification).
NEW RU CLAIM/Footage (Mar 31): Russian sources shared footage allegedly showing drone operations (thermal imaging, targeting) by RU 36th Motor Rifle Brigade and 14th Spetsnaz Brigade ("Vostok" group) in the Shakhtarsk direction (likely Novopavlivsk/Vuhledar area). (Propaganda showcasing capabilities, requires verification of any specific outcomes).
RU Claims (Older): FPV strike on tank (Novodanylivka), Lancet strike on vehicle (Shcherbynivka), Radar strike (Petrushivka, Sumy), Strike on personnel (up to 170 SBU/GUR/mercenaries). Require verification.
Activity Targeting Russian Territory:
NEW RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Russian MoD claims 24 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Kirovsky district, Kaluga Oblast overnight. (Requires verification).
Ongoing UAV/Artillery pressure reported, particularly in Kursk/Belgorod Oblasts. Missile danger alerts periodically issued (e.g., Bryansk Oblast, Mar 30).
III. Ground Combat Operations
(Based on UGS report Mar 30, 19:00 UTC, and incorporating recent claims)
(A) Eastern Front (Donbas)
Pokrovsk Direction:Highest Intensity. Attacks persist near Oleksandropil, Kalynove, Kotlyne, Udachne, etc. (UGS report, Mar 30). UA confirmed RU advance near Katerynivka (Mar 27).
Toretsk Direction:High Intensity. Attacks near Krymske, Toretsk, towards Dyliivka (UGS report, Mar 30). UA confirms RU advance near Panteleimonivka (Mar 30). NEW RU CLAIM (Mar 31): Russian forces claim successful drone-artillery strikes on UA PVD and infantry within Panteleimonivka. RU source maps depict pressure.
Lyman Direction:High Intensity. Attacks near Nadiia, Yampolivka, Kolodiazi; towards Nove, Novomykhailivka (UGS report, Mar 30). UA confirms RU advance near Novoie (Mar 30).
Novopavlivsk Direction: Attacks near Kostyantynopil, towards Rozlyv, Vesele (UGS report, Mar 30). RU claims entry into Rozlyv (Mar 29). NEW RU CLAIM (Mar 31): "Vostok" Group claims advances and inflicting significant casualties/equipment losses (incl. 3 EW stations) on UA forces in areas including Razliv, Vesyoly, Bogatyr, Otradne. (Requires Verification). RU sources shared drone footage purportedly from this direction (Shakhtarsk area).
Kramatorsk Direction (incl. Chasiv Yar & Andriivske Direction): Attacks near Stupochky, towards Bila Hora (UGS report, Mar 30). UA confirms RU advance in Rozlyv (Mar 30). Intense fighting near Chasiv Yar.
Siversk Direction: Clashes near Verkhnokamyanske, Ivano-Darivka (UGS report, Mar 30).
(B) Northeastern Front
Kupyansk Direction: Assaults repelled near Radkivka, Pishchane, Bohuslavka, etc. (UGS report, Mar 30). RU claims require verification. KAB strike on Kupyansk center reported (Mar 30).
Kharkiv Direction: Assaults reported near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Krasne Pershe (UGS report, Mar 30). Sustained Shahed attack on Kharkiv city overnight (Updated details above).
(C) Southern Front
Huliaipole Direction: Attacks repelled near Pryvilne, towards Vilne Pole (UGS report, Mar 30). NEW RU CLAIM (Mar 31): "Vostok" Group claims advances and inflicting casualties in areas including Volnoye Pole. (Requires Verification).
Orikhiv Direction: Attacks repelled towards Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove (UGS report, Mar 30). RU FPV claim (Mar 30). RU claims on Shcherbaky require verification. Air Alert Active (Zaporizhzhia OVA, 03:09 UTC). Active KAB threat towards Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk border area (UA AF, 03:11 UTC).
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): Unsuccessful RU attacks towards Sadove (UGS report, Mar 30). Positional fighting.
Intensity: Intense fighting and heavy Russian strikes continue. UGS reported repelling 20 Russian attacks in Kursk Oblast (as of 19:00 UTC, Mar 30).
Specific Locations & Claims:
RU CLAIM (NEW - Verification Required): Russian sources claim capture of Hoholivka (Gogolevka) in Kursk Oblast (Mar 31), providing visual media.
RU claims control northern Uspenivka (Mar 30); Sudzha "liberated" narrative persists. Fighting reported within RU border settlements.
Ballistic missile strike on Shostka (Sumy) reported (Mar 30). Active RU tactical aviation threat towards Sumy Oblast (Mar 31, 01:08 UTC). Previous UAV threat near Sumy city reported (~02:50 UTC).
IV. Key Developments & Other Factors
Russian Logistics: Persistent reports indicate significant shortfalls. High equipment wear/loss rates noted. NEW: Russian MoD filed lawsuits against Russian Railways (RZhD) for nearly 100 million rubles (TASS, Mar 31), potentially indicating contractual disputes or financial issues impacting military logistics. RU claims destruction of UA EW stations in Vostok AOR (Requires Verification).
Counter-Drone Tactics: Evidence of RU using drone-deployed nets (Mar 30). RU sources showcase ongoing drone recon/strike ops (thermal, night) via 36th MRB / 14th SpN (Mar 31) and 68th Tank Rgt / 346th Spetsnaz Bde / 238th Arty Bde (Mar 31).
New Threats: Report of camouflaged 'petal' mine variant (PFM-1) via heavy drones (RU source, Mar 30). Requires vigilance.
Political/Diplomatic:
NEW (RU Stance): Russian MFA official states Russia categorically rejects the idea of peacekeepers on Ukrainian territory from countries supplying weapons to Kyiv (TASS, Mar 31).
NEW (Trump/Ceasefire): Former US President Trump reportedly has not set a deadline for seeking Russian agreement on a ceasefire in Ukraine (TASS, Mar 31).
Ukrainian source (RBC-Ukraina citing Axios) reports potential visit by former US President Trump to Saudi Arabia in May, with unnamed Saudi sources allegedly wanting a ceasefire in Ukraine achieved beforehand (Mar 31).
Russian state media (TASS) reports statements attributed to former US President Trump asserting President Zelenskyy "understands [Ukraine] will never get into NATO" (Mar 31).
Russian state media (TASS) reports former US President Trump stated he "would not want to impose secondary tariffs against Russia" (Mar 31).
Russian state media (TASS) reports EU has no intention to resume counter-terrorism cooperation with Russia (MFA official statement, Mar 31).
Statement attributed to former US President Trump (RBC-Ukraina, Mar 31) claims President Zelenskyy is attempting to reject a deal on rare earth metals and will face "big problems" if he does so. Ukrainian context provided: President Zelenskyy stated (Mar 28) Ukraine received a draft proposal from the US regarding resources which contained previously rejected points and required study. (Potential Information Operation / Context on US-UA relations).
President Zelenskyy (Mar 30) highlighted ongoing daily Russian attacks as rejection of reported US ceasefire proposal.
UK PM Starmer / US President Trump reportedly agreed on need to maintain pressure on Putin (Mar 30).
Finnish President Stubb reportedly proposed unconditional ceasefire by April 20 (Mar 30).
Russian funds for UN contributions reportedly frozen in Gazprombank (Mar 30).
Claim: Russia/US negotiations on rare earth metals reported (TASS/Izvestia, Mar 30). Requires monitoring.
International Support: Next Ramstein meeting April 11. Ongoing deliveries/pledges.
Russian Information Operations:
NEW: Amplifying claims of successful drone-artillery coordination and strikes in Panteleimonivka (Toretsk direction) (Colonelcassad, Mar 31). Amplifying claims of military success by "Vostok" Group (advances, casualties inflicted, equipment destroyed like EW stations) (TASS, Mar 31). Showcasing drone capabilities (thermal, night ops) (Colonelcassad, Mar 31). Reinforcing rejection of certain peacekeeping formats (TASS, Mar 31). Promoting narratives around Trump's stance on ceasefire deadlines (TASS, Mar 31). Highlighting domestic patriotic events (e.g., Khabarovsk flashmob, Mar 31) to reinforce historical narratives and national unity. Morale/propaganda posts featuring unit insignia (e.g., "Archangel Spetsnaz", Mar 31).
Russian sources (Colonelcassad) circulated a video purportedly showing a captured Polish member of the International Legion (2nd Btn, 1st Spec Co), likely for propaganda purposes targeting foreign volunteers and exploiting POWs (Mar 31). (Note: Video claims capture occurred in October 2024).
Russian sources amplify statements attributed to former US President Trump regarding Ukraine's NATO prospects, opposition to secondary sanctions, and the rare earth metals deal, aiming to undermine Western resolve and Ukrainian aspirations/leadership.
Persistent narratives focus on alleged successes (esp. Kursk border claims like Hoholivka), high claimed UA losses, justification for strikes, and attempts to undermine international support/internal Ukrainian morale. Video depicting alleged forced mobilization ("kidnapping") circulated by RU sources (Colonelcassad, Mar 31) - likely aimed at discrediting Ukrainian mobilization efforts.
