Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 31, 2025, 00:26 UTC
(Incorporating information up to March 31, 00:26 UTC)
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. The highest intensity persists along the Pokrovsk Direction. Significant combat activity continues on the Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk directions, the Andriivske direction (Kurakhove area), and across the Kursk/Belgorod border region. (Note: UGS reported 147 clashes as of Mar 30, 19:00 UTC).
Russian Main Efforts: Primary offensive focus remains directed towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure is observed towards Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and Chasiv Yar. Russian forces maintain efforts to expand combat operations into Sumy Oblast and continue attempts to advance along multiple axes in Donetsk Oblast. Efforts continue to consolidate control and advance within the Kursk border area.
Territorial Changes (Recent Developments, Claims & Confirmations):(No significant changes reported since Mar 30, 23:56 UTC update)
Andriivske Direction (Kurakhove area): UA confirmed (Mar 30) RU advance in Rozlyv. RU claims (Mar 30) require verification.
Toretsk Direction: UA confirmed (Mar 30) RU advance near Panteleimonivka. RU source maps (Mar 30) depict RU control E/S of Toretsk, reinforcing pressure towards the town.
Lyman Direction: UA confirmed (Mar 30) RU advance near Novoie. Terny previously assessed almost fully RU-occupied.
Kupyansk Direction: RU claims (Mar 30) of advance S of Dvurichna towards Kondrashivka require verification. UA previously confirmed RU advance near Orlyanske (Mar 27).
Sumy/Kursk Border Area: RU claims (Mar 30) control northern Uspenivka; narrative of Sudzha "liberated" persists. Ongoing fighting reported within RU border settlements (e.g., Huyevo, Mar 30 morning reports).
Pokrovsk Direction: UA confirmed (Mar 27) incremental RU advance near Katerynivka.
Orikhiv Direction: RU claims (Mar 30 morning) of Shcherbaky liberation and advances require verification.
Ukrainian Defensive Posture: Ukrainian forces maintain defensive lines, inflicting losses and repelling numerous assaults. Operations focus on degrading Russian offensive capability. Active Ukrainian operations on Russian territory continue to disrupt Russian staging efforts (President Zelenskyy, Mar 29).
II. Air & Strike Campaign
Shahed/Geran UAV Attacks:Ongoing Focused Attack. Air defense remains actively engaged.
Current Activity/Locations (as of ~00:25 UTC):
Zhytomyr Oblast:High Threat. Ongoing Air Defense engagement.
2 UAVs reported near Zhytomyr city, engagement ongoing (Mykolaivskyi Vanek, 23:59 UTC).
1 UAV transiting from Kyiv Oblast towards Zhytomyr Oblast (Mykolaivskyi Vanek, 23:59 UTC; UA AF, 00:18 UTC confirms UAV SE of oblast heading NW towards Zhytomyr).
2 UAVs approaching Zhytomyr expected within minutes (Mykolaivskyi Vanek, 00:15 UTC). Urgent Warning active for Zhytomyr city (UA AF, 00:12 UTC).
Vinnytsia Oblast:Threat Persists.
1 UAV S of oblast, heading W/NW (Mykolaivskyi Vanek, 23:59 UTC).
1 UAV W of oblast, heading W/NW (UA AF, 00:18 UTC). Urgent Warning active for Vinnytsia city (UA AF, 00:12 UTC).
Kyiv Oblast:Threat Decreasing. Air Raid Alert CANCELLED for Kyiv city (KMVA, 00:10 UTC; RBC-Ukraina, 00:11 UTC). 1 UAV reported transiting from Chernihiv Oblast into Kyiv Oblast (Mykolaivskyi Vanek, 23:59 UTC).
Chernihiv Oblast: 1 UAV E of oblast, heading SW (UA AF, 00:18 UTC). Previously 1 UAV reported transiting into Kyiv Oblast (Mykolaivskyi Vanek, 23:59 UTC).
Recent Impacts:
Kharkiv: Drone impact confirmed at civilian enterprise in Kyivskyi district (Mayor Terekhov, Mar 30, 23:37 UTC). Updated Damage: Blast wave damaged windows in nearby apartments; damage confirmed to a kindergarten building and a cultural/sports complex (Mayor Terekhov via RBC-Ukraina, 00:19 UTC). Updated Casualties:No physical injuries initially reported (Mayor Terekhov, Mar 30, 23:50 UTC), later updated to 2 civilians treated for acute stress reaction (Mayor Terekhov via RBC-Ukraina, 00:23 UTC). Specialized services are assessing damage.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Explosions reported earlier (Mar 30). Air alert cancelled.
Previous Confirmed Major Impacts: Kharkiv (Mar 29 night: 2 KIA, 30 WIA, military hospital hit). Kryvyi Rih (Mar 29/30: 9 WIA). Poltava city (Mar 27: industrial zone). Energy infrastructure damage confirmed from multiple recent RU strikes.
Ballistic Missile Threat: Alert previously active for NE direction, now cancelled.
Confirmed Impact (Recent): Ballistic missile strike reported in Shostka, Sumy Oblast (~22:20 UTC, Mar 30).
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Use remains high (120 KABs reported by UGS as of 19:00 UTC, Mar 30). Persistent threat, particularly to northern and eastern border regions.
Other Strike Activity (Recent):
UGS reported 1 missile strike, ~750 kamikaze drone attacks, ~4,000 artillery/mortar/MLRS shelling incidents (as of 19:00 UTC, Mar 30).
RU Claims (Recent): FPV strike on tank (Novodanylivka), Lancet strike on vehicle (Shcherbynivka), Radar strike (Petrushivka, Sumy), Strike on personnel (up to 170 SBU/GUR/mercenaries). Require verification.
Activity Targeting Russian Territory:
Ongoing UAV/Artillery pressure reported, particularly in Kursk/Belgorod Oblasts. Missile danger alerts periodically issued (e.g., Bryansk Oblast, Mar 30).
III. Ground Combat Operations
(No significant changes reported in ground dispositions since Mar 30, 23:56 UTC update. Key areas remain consistent)
(A) Eastern Front (Donbas)
Pokrovsk Direction:Highest Intensity. Attacks persist near Oleksandropil, Kalynove, Kotlyne, Udachne, etc. (UGS report, Mar 30). UA confirmed RU advance near Katerynivka (Mar 27).
Toretsk Direction:High Intensity. Attacks near Krymske, Toretsk, towards Dyliivka (UGS report, Mar 30). UA confirms RU advance near Panteleimonivka (Mar 30). RU source maps depict pressure.
Lyman Direction:High Intensity. Attacks near Nadiia, Yampolivka, Kolodiazi; towards Nove, Novomykhailivka (UGS report, Mar 30). UA confirms RU advance near Novoie (Mar 30).
Novopavlivsk Direction: Attacks near Kostyantynopil, towards Rozlyv, Vesele (UGS report, Mar 30). RU claims require verification.
Kramatorsk Direction (incl. Chasiv Yar & Andriivske Direction): Attacks near Stupochky, towards Bila Hora (UGS report, Mar 30). UA confirms RU advance in Rozlyv (Mar 30). Intense fighting near Chasiv Yar.
Siversk Direction: Clashes near Verkhnokamyanske, Ivano-Darivka (UGS report, Mar 30).
(B) Northeastern Front
Kupyansk Direction: Assaults repelled near Radkivka, Pishchane, Bohuslavka, etc. (UGS report, Mar 30). RU claims require verification. KAB strike on Kupyansk center reported (Mar 30).
Kharkiv Direction: Assaults reported near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Krasne Pershe (UGS report, Mar 30). Drone impact confirmed on civil infrastructure in Kharkiv city (Updated details above).
(C) Southern Front
Huliaipole Direction: Attacks repelled near Pryvilne, towards Vilne Pole (UGS report, Mar 30).
Orikhiv Direction: Attacks repelled towards Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove (UGS report, Mar 30). RU FPV claim (Mar 30). RU claims on Shcherbaky require verification.
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): Unsuccessful RU attacks towards Sadove (UGS report, Mar 30). Positional fighting.
Counter-Drone Tactics: Evidence of RU using drone-deployed nets (Mar 30).
New Threats: Report of camouflaged 'petal' mine variant (PFM-1) via heavy drones (RU source, Mar 30). Requires vigilance.
Political/Diplomatic:
President Zelenskyy (Mar 30) highlighted ongoing daily Russian attacks as rejection of reported US ceasefire proposal.
New Claim (RU Sources): TASS (Mar 30, 23:50 UTC) / RVvoenkor (Mar 31, 00:20 UTC) citing Reuters claim US President Trump stated Zelenskyy is trying to deviate from resource deal conditions / faces "big problems" if deal is refused. (Potential Information Operation targeting US-Ukraine relations and resource negotiations).
UK PM Starmer / US President Trump reportedly agreed on need to maintain pressure on Putin (Mar 30).
Finnish President Stubb reportedly proposed unconditional ceasefire by April 20 (Mar 30).
Russian funds for UN contributions reportedly frozen in Gazprombank (Mar 30).
Claim: Russia/US negotiations on rare earth metals reported (TASS/Izvestia, Mar 30). Requires monitoring for strategic implications.
International Support: Next Ramstein meeting April 11. Ongoing deliveries/pledges.
Russian Information Operations: Persistent narratives focus on alleged successes (esp. Kursk border), high claimed UA losses, justification for strikes, and attempts to undermine international support/internal Ukrainian morale (e.g., Trump/Zelenskyy resource deal claims). Video depicting alleged forced mobilization ("kidnapping") circulated by RU sources (Colonelcassad, Mar 31) - likely aimed at discrediting Ukrainian mobilization efforts.
