Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 30, 2025, 23:56 UTC
(Incorporating information up to March 30, 23:56 UTC)
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 147 combat clashes as of 19:00 UTC, Mar 30 (down from 223 in the preceding 24 hours). The highest intensity persists along the Pokrovsk Direction (61 attacks reported Mar 30 vs 93 in the previous 24h). Significant combat activity continues on the Lyman (14 attacks), Toretsk (14 attacks), Novopavlivsk (11 attacks) directions, the Andriivske direction (Kurakhove area), and across the Kursk/Belgorod border region (20 RU attacks repelled Mar 30 vs 31 previous day).
Russian Main Efforts: Primary offensive focus remains directed towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure is observed towards Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and Chasiv Yar. Russian forces maintain efforts to expand combat operations into Sumy Oblast (Confirmed CinC Syrskyi, Mar 27) and continue attempts to advance along multiple axes in Donetsk Oblast.
RU Claim (Rybar, Mar 30): Significant advances near Zaporizhzhia (Donetsk settlement), liberation of Preobrazhenka, engaging in combat for Bohdanivka and outskirts of Troitske, advances towards Kotlyarivka. Partially corroborates earlier RU claims.
RU Claim (Сливочный каприз, Mar 30): Advance of up to 400m within Novosilka (Velyka Novosilka area), establishing positions in central part under UA fire.
Andriivske Direction (Kurakhove area):
UA Confirmation (DeepState, Mar 30): Russian forces advanced in Rozlyv.
RU Claim (Rybar, Mar 30): Assault units broke into Rozlyv, liberating half the settlement, aligning front along Razdolne — Rozlyv — Kostyantynopil.
RU Claim (Сливочный каприз, Mar 30, citing Mar 29): Light infantry attack achieved 2km advance, reaching eastern outskirts of Rozlyv under UA fire.
Toretsk Direction:
UA Confirmation (DeepState, Mar 30): Russian forces advanced near Panteleimonivka. Follows RU MoD claim of capturing Panteleimonivka (Mar 29) & earlier UA confirmation of RU advance near Panteleimonivka (Mar 27). RU sources (Colonelcassad, Mar 30, 23:35 UTC) released maps depicting the situation, showing RU control East/South of Toretsk and reinforcing claims of pressure towards the town.
Lyman Direction:
UA Confirmation (DeepState, Mar 30): Russian forces advanced near Novoie. Follows UGS reports of RU attacks towards Novoie. Terny previously assessed as almost fully Russian-occupied (DeepState, Mar 27/28).
Kupyansk Direction:
RU Claim (Сливочный каприз, Mar 30): Expanded bridgehead west of Oskil River, advancing >3.5km south of Dvurichna towards Kupyansk, occupying positions on outskirts of Kondrashivka. Older RU claims (Mar 30 morning) included capture of Krasne Pershe and advances near Stepova Novoselivka. UA previously confirmed RU advance near Orlyanske (Mar 27).
Sumy/Kursk Border Area:
RU Claim (Сливочный каприз, Mar 30): Russian forces control the northern part of Uspenivka (Sudzha area), positions under UA drone attack.
RU Claim/Narrative (Colonelcassad/Readovka, Mar 30): Russian sources report Sudzha (Kursk Oblast) is "liberated" and under Russian control. RU MoD previously claimed MAPP Sudzha checkpoint secured (Mar 27). Older RU claims (Mar 30 morning) included capture of Veselovka (Sumy border, denied by UA).
Pokrovsk Direction:
UA Confirmation (DeepState, Mar 27): Incremental RU advance near Katerynivka. Older RU claim (Mar 30 morning) of breaking into Novooleksandrivka requires verification.
Orikhiv Direction:
RU Claim (Colonelcassad/divgen, Mar 30 morning): Claimed liberation of Shcherbaky. Claimed advances up to 2km deep along Dolynka–Shcherbaky and Piatykhatky–Stepove axes. Requires verification.
Ukrainian Defensive Posture: Ukrainian forces maintain defensive lines, inflicting losses and repelling numerous assaults. Notable resilience cited for the 82nd & 95th Air Assault Brigades, 65th Mechanized Brigade, and 40th Marine Brigade (UGS, Mar 30). Operations focus on degrading Russian offensive capability. President Zelenskyy confirmed (Mar 29) ongoing Ukrainian active operations on Russian territory hindering RU staging for potential Sumy/Kharkiv offensives.
II. Air & Strike Campaign
Shahed/Geran UAV Attacks:Ongoing Focused Attack. Multiple groups of UAVs continue to operate.
Current Activity/Locations (as of ~23:55 UTC):
Zhytomyr Oblast:High Intensity. Multiple groups converging on Zhytomyr city from Berdychiv and Korosten directions. Intense Air Defense engagement ongoing. Approx. 5 UAVs reported approaching city (23:43 UTC), subsequent report indicates 3 remaining near city, 2 approaching from Berdychiv (23:51 UTC). Urgent Warning active.
Chernihiv Oblast: UAV west of oblast, heading SW (UA AF, 23:44 UTC).
Kyiv Oblast: UAV north of oblast, heading W/SW; another on Kyiv/Vinnytsia border, heading W/NW (UA AF, 23:44 UTC).
Vinnytsia Oblast: UAV south of oblast, heading W/NW; another transiting SE Zhytomyr Oblast, heading W/NW (UA AF, 23:44 UTC).
Kharkiv: Attack appears concluded.
Recent Impacts:
Kharkiv: Drone impact confirmed at a civilian enterprise in Kyivskyi district (Mayor Terekhov, 23:37 UTC). No preliminary casualties, blast wave damaged windows in nearby apartment buildings (Mayor Terekhov, 23:50 UTC). Previous reports placed impact on border of Shevchenkivskyi/Kyivskyi districts. Explosion heard ~23:21 UTC.
Previous Confirmed Major Impacts: Kharkiv (Mar 29 night: 2 KIA, 35 WIA, military hospital hit, residential/commercial damage). Kryvyi Rih (Mar 29/30: 9 WIA, residential area). Poltava city (Mar 27: industrial zone hit). Energy infrastructure damage confirmed from multiple recent RU strikes.
Ballistic Missile Threat: Alert cancelled (UA Air Force, 22:57 UTC).
Confirmed Impact (Recent): Ballistic missile strike reported in Shostka, Sumy Oblast (~22:20 UTC, Mar 30).
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Use remains high. UGS reported 120 KABs used in 64 RU air strikes (as of 19:00 UTC, Mar 30). Previous day saw 153 KABs used.
Recent launches reported towards North Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk Oblasts (Mar 30 evening). Strike reported on Kupyansk city center (Mar 30, 20:16 UTC).
RU Claim (FPV Strike - Orikhiv, Mar 30, 23:03 UTC): Successful strike claimed against UA tank in Novodanylivka (Coordinates: 47.53521, 35.82193), approx. 7km from LBS.
RU Claim (Lancet Strike - Toretsk, Mar 30, 22:39 UTC): Successful strike reported against abandoned UA armored vehicle in northern Shcherbynivka (Coordinates: 48.413206, 37.786524), approx. 2km from LBS.
RU Claim (Radar Strike, Mar 30): Claimed destruction of Ukrainian ieMHR "RADA" radar near Petrushivka, Sumy Oblast.
RU Claim (Strike on Personnel, Mar 30): Claimed strike neutralized up to 170 SBU/GUR personnel/mercenaries.
Activity Targeting Russian Territory:
RU Claim (FPV Strike - Belgorod Oblast, Mar 30, 23:12 UTC): Claimed FPV drone strike by 155th Naval Infantry Brigade targeting UA soldiers.
Bryansk Oblast: Missile danger alert issued (21:32 UTC), cancelled (21:41 UTC). UAV attack reported underway, RU MoD air defenses active (21:53 UTC).
Saratov Oblast (Engels): Multiple explosions reported by residents overnight Mar 27/28 near Engels airfield; outcome unconfirmed.
Belgorod Bridge Strikes: UA previously confirmed destroying bridges in Grafovka and Nadezhivka (RU).
III. Ground Combat Operations
(A) Eastern Front (Donbas)
Pokrovsk Direction:Highest Intensity. 61 RU attempts reported (UGS, 19:00 UTC); 6 ongoing. Attacks near Oleksandropil, Kalynove, Kotlyne, Udachne, etc. RU claims tactical advances S of Pokrovsk (Kotlyne, Shevchenko, Pischane). UA confirmed RU advance near Katerynivka (Mar 27). RU forces previously pushed back in lower Kotlyne (Mar 27). Older RU claim of break-in to Novooleksandrivka needs verification.
Toretsk Direction:High Intensity. 14 RU attacks reported (UGS, 19:00 UTC); 1 ongoing. Attacks near Krymske, Toretsk, towards Dyliivka. UA confirms RU advance near Panteleimonivka (DeepState, Mar 30). RU source maps (Mar 30, 23:35 UTC) show RU positions E/S of Toretsk. RU Lancet strike claimed near Shcherbynivka (Mar 30). RU MoD claimed Panteleimonivka captured (Mar 29).
Lyman Direction:High Intensity. 14 RU attacks reported (UGS, 19:00 UTC); 4 ongoing. Attacks near Nadiia, Yampolivka, Kolodiazi; towards Nove, Novomykhailivka. UA confirms RU advance near Novoie (DeepState, Mar 30). Terny previously assessed almost fully RU-occupied (Mar 27/28).
Novopavlivsk Direction: 11 RU attacks reported (UGS, 19:00 UTC); 6 ongoing. Attacks near Kostyantynopil, towards Rozlyv, Vesele. RU claims liberation of Preobrazhenka, fighting for Bohdanivka/Troitske, advances towards Kotlyarivka (Rybar, Mar 30). RU claims advance in Novoselka (Velyka Novosilka) (Сливочный каприз, Mar 30). Fighting reported ongoing near Razliv / Vesele (NW of Novy Komar).
Kramatorsk Direction (incl. Chasiv Yar & Andriivske Direction):
2 RU attempts reported near Stupochky, towards Bila Hora (UGS, 19:00 UTC).
UA confirms RU advance in Rozlyv (DeepState, Mar 30). RU claims liberation of half of Rozlyv, aligning front; claim 2km advance reaching eastern outskirts (Mar 30).
Intense fighting continues near Chasiv Yar.
Siversk Direction: 5 RU attacks reported (UGS, 19:00 UTC); clashes ongoing near Verkhnokamyanske, Ivano-Darivka. RU assault with light vehicles repelled with high RU losses claimed (Mar 30 morning report).
(B) Northeastern Front
Kupyansk Direction: 6 RU assaults repelled (UGS, 19:00 UTC) near Radkivka, Pishchane, Bohuslavka, Petropavlivka, Zahryzove. RU claims advance >3.5km S of Dvurichna, occupying positions on outskirts of Kondrashivka (Mar 30). UA previously confirmed RU advance near Orlyanske (Mar 27). KAB strike on Kupyansk center reported (Mar 30).
Kharkiv Direction: 3 RU assaults reported (UGS, 19:00 UTC); 1 ongoing near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Krasne Pershe. Drone impact confirmed on civil enterprise in Kharkiv city (Mar 30, ~23:37 UTC).
(C) Southern Front
Huliaipole Direction: 2 RU attacks repelled (UGS, 19:00 UTC) near Pryvilne, towards Vilne Pole. RU previously claimed breakthrough into Vilne Pole (Mar 27).
Orikhiv Direction: 4 RU attacks repelled (UGS, 19:00 UTC) towards Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove. RU claim FPV drone strike on UA tank in Novodanylivka (Mar 30). RU MoD previously claimed liberation of Shcherbaki (Mar 29), potentially corroborated by RU source claims (Mar 30 morning) of Shcherbaky liberation and advances towards the Kam'yanske-Orikhiv road.
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): 2 unsuccessful RU attacks towards Sadove (UGS, 19:00 UTC). Positional fighting persists. RU sources previously claimed renewed UA attempts near the small railway bridge.
Intensity: Intense fighting and heavy Russian strikes continue. UGS reported repelling 20 Russian attacks in Kursk Oblast with 1 clash ongoing (as of 19:00 UTC, Mar 30).
Specific Locations & Claims:
RU claims control of northern Uspenivka (Sudzha area), positions under UA drone attack (Mar 30).
RU Claim/Narrative: Russian sources claim Sudzha (Kursk Oblast) is "liberated" and under Russian control (Mar 30). Heavy fighting previously reported near Huyevo, Oleshnia, Basovka. RU previously secured MAPP Sudzha checkpoint (Mar 27).
RU Claim (Targeting UA Forces): RU sources claim FPV drone strike targeting UA soldiers in Belgorod Oblast (Mar 30).
Heavy fighting reported near Popovka, Demydovka (Belgorod).
RU Logistics/Claims: Persistent reports of RU logistics shortfalls. RU MoD claimed >160 UA losses in Kursk today. Confirmed UA airstrikes destroyed bridges impacting RU logistics (Mar 27). RU Info Ops continue alleging UA atrocities in Kursk Oblast.
IV. Key Developments & Other Factors
Russian Logistics: Persistent reports indicate significant shortfalls requiring volunteer support. RU sources note high equipment wear/loss rates and reliance on mobilized personnel.
Counter-Drone Tactics: Evidence of Russian forces using drone-deployed nets against Ukrainian FPV drones (Mar 30).
New Threats: Report of camouflaged 'petal' mine variant (PFM-1) allegedly delivered via heavy drones (RU source, Mar 30).
Political/Diplomatic:
President Zelenskyy (Mar 30) highlighted ongoing daily Russian attacks as rejection of a reported multi-week US unconditional ceasefire proposal.
New Claim: Russia (TASS citing Reuters, Mar 30, 23:50 UTC) claims US President Trump stated Zelenskyy is trying to deviate from resource deal conditions between US and Ukraine.
New Claim: Russia (TASS citing Izvestia/RFPI head, Mar 30, 23:28 UTC) claims Russia and US have begun negotiations on rare earth metal projects.
UK PM Starmer and US President Trump reportedly agreed on need to maintain pressure on Putin (Mar 30).
Finnish President Stubb reportedly proposed unconditional ceasefire by April 20 (Mar 30).
Russian funds for UN contributions reportedly frozen in Gazprombank (Mar 30).
International Support: Next Ramstein meeting April 11. Ongoing deliveries/pledges (Czech Republic, Netherlands, France). EU reaffirmed increased aid, sanctions, defense strengthening post-Paris meeting (Mar 28).
Russian Internal Events: Active shooter incident in Murmansk neutralized (Mar 30). Low direct impact.
