Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 30, 2025, 22:26 UTC
(Incorporating information up to March 30, 22:26 UTC)
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 147 combat clashes as of 19:00 UTC, March 30. The highest intensity persists along the Pokrovsk Direction. Significant combat activity continues on the Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk directions, the Andriivske direction (Kurakhove area), and across the Kursk/Belgorod border region.
Russian Main Efforts: Primary offensive focus remains directed towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure is observed towards Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and Chasiv Yar. Russian forces maintain efforts to expand combat operations into Sumy Oblast (Confirmed CinC Syrskyi, Mar 27) and continue attempts to advance along multiple axes in Donetsk Oblast.
RU Claim (Rybar, Mar 30): Significant advances near Zaporizhzhia (Donetsk Oblast settlement), liberation of Preobrazhenka, engaging in combat for Bohdanivka and the outskirts of Troitske, advances towards Kotlyarivka. Partially corroborates earlier RU claims regarding Uspenivka (contested), Bohdanivka/Troitske, Nadezhdinka/Kotlyarivka, and Zaporizhzhia village.
RU Claim (Сливочный каприз, Mar 30): Advance of up to 400m within Novosilka (Velyka Novosilka area), establishing positions in the central part under UA fire.
Andriivske Direction (Likely aligned with Kramatorsk/Kurakhove axes):
RU Claim (Rybar, Mar 30): Assault units broke into Rozlyv, liberating half the settlement and aligning the front along Razdolne — Rozlyv — Kostyantynopil.
RU Claim (Сливочный каприз, Mar 30, 21:55 UTC, citing Mar 29): RU light infantry attack towards Rozlyv (Kurakhove area) achieved 2km advance, reaching eastern outskirts under UA fire (Coordinates provided: 47.970026, 37.006417).
UA Confirmation (DeepState, Mar 30): Russian forces advanced in Rozlyv.
Toretsk Direction:
UA Confirmation (DeepState, Mar 30): Russian forces advanced near Panteleimonivka. Follows RU MoD claim of capturing Panteleimonivka (Mar 29) and earlier DeepState confirmation of RU advance near Panteleimonivka (Mar 27).
Lyman Direction:
UA Confirmation (DeepState, Mar 30): Russian forces advanced near Novoie. Follows UGS reports of RU attacks towards Novoie.
Kupyansk Direction:
RU Claim (Сливочный каприз, Mar 30): Expanded bridgehead west of Oskil River, advancing >3.5km south of Dvurichna towards Kupyansk, occupying new positions on the outskirts of Kondrashivka. Corroborates UGS report of RU assaults near Radkivka, Pishchane, Bohuslavka, Petropavlivka, Zahryzove.
Sumy Border Area:
RU Claim (Сливочный каприз, Mar 30): Russian forces control the northern part of Uspenivka (Sudzha area), positions under UA drone attack. Follows earlier RU MoD claim of capturing Veselovka (Mar 29).
Previously Confirmed/Assessed (UA Sources): Incremental RU advances near Katerynivka (Pokrovsk), Panteleimonivka (Toretsk), Orlyanske (Kupyansk); Terny (Lyman) assessed almost fully Russian-occupied (DeepState, Mar 27/28).
Ukrainian Defensive Posture: Ukrainian forces maintain defensive lines, repelling numerous assaults. Noteworthy resilience cited for the 82nd & 95th Air Assault Brigades, 65th Mechanized Brigade, and 40th Marine Brigade (UGS, Mar 30). Operations focus on degrading Russian offensive capability through counter-battery fire, FPV drone strikes, EW employment, and cross-border actions. President Zelenskyy confirmed (Mar 29) ongoing Ukrainian active operations on Russian territory prevent Russian forces from staging significant offensive actions towards Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts.
II. Air & Strike Campaign
Shahed/Geran UAV Attacks:Ongoing Mass Attack. Multiple groups of UAVs continue to operate across northern, central, and western Ukraine. Air alerts active in numerous oblasts.
Current Activity/Locations (as of ~22:18 - 22:25 UTC):
Kyiv Oblast: UAVs near Vyshhorod heading towards Kyiv (potential AD engagement); UAVs near Obukhiv/Vasylkiv; UAVs in north of oblast heading W (Nikolaevsky Vanek, UA AF).
Zhytomyr Oblast: UAVs east of Zhytomyr city (potential AD engagement); UAVs between Korosten and Zhytomyr heading SW; Warning for Zhytomyr city (Nikolaevsky Vanek, UA AF).
Cherkasy Oblast: UAVs transiting into Vinnytsia Oblast north of Uman (Nikolaevsky Vanek).
Kirovohrad Oblast: UAVs south of Kropyvnytskyi heading W, some entering Mykolaiv Oblast (Pervomaisk district); UAVs transiting into Cherkasy Oblast (Nikolaevsky Vanek).
Vinnytsia Oblast: ~10 UAVs entering from Cherkasy Oblast north of Uman (Nikolaevsky Vanek).
Sumy/Chernihiv Oblast: UAVs near Konotop heading towards Nizhyn (Nikolaevsky Vanek).
Impacts: Explosions reported earlier in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (ZOVA, 20:11 UTC). Previous major impact confirmed in Kharkiv (Mar 29 night: 2 KIA, 25 WIA, damage to hospital, residential, commercial). Hit confirmed on industrial zone in Poltava city (Mar 27). Energy infrastructure damage confirmed from multiple recent RU strikes. Continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure reported (Rybar, Mar 30).
RU Claimed Strikes (Mar 29-30, Rybar): Strikes on personnel concentrations including "Slavna" park complex in Chernechyne (Sumy Oblast) and a military hospital in Kharkiv.
Ballistic Missile Threat:ACTIVE THREAT.
Warning issued for threat from NE direction (UA Air Force, 22:16 UTC). Air alerts active across Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Poltava, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Chernihiv, Kyiv oblasts (RBC-Ukraine Map, ZOVA).
High-speed target detected moving from N Sumy Oblast towards Chernihiv Oblast (UA Air Force, 22:20 UTC).
Confirmed Impact: Ballistic missile strike reported in Shostka, Sumy Oblast (~22:20 UTC); potential for follow-on strikes noted (Nikolaevsky Vanek).
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Use remains high.
Previous launches reported towards North Kharkiv Oblast (UA Air Force, 20:48 UTC), Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast (UA Air Force, 20:18 UTC).
Kupyansk: Strike reported on the city center using a KAB (Kharkiv OVA, 20:16 UTC).
UGS reported 120 KABs used in 64 RU air strikes (as of 19:00 UTC, Mar 30).
Other Strike Activity:
UGS reported 1 missile strike, ~750 kamikaze drone attacks, ~4,000 artillery/mortar/MLRS shelling incidents (as of 19:00 UTC, Mar 30).
RU Claim (Radar Strike): Russian sources claim missile strike destroyed a Ukrainian ieMHR "RADA" multifunctional radar station near Petrushivka, Sumy Oblast (Mar 30).
RU Claim (Sumy Direction): Russian source (Voin DV) video claims successful strike on camouflaged Ukrainian armored vehicle (Mar 30).
Russian MoD claimed a strike neutralized up to 170 SBU/GUR personnel/mercenaries (Mar 30, RU Claim).
Sniper activity reported in Chasiv Yar (RU Source video, Mar 30).
Activity Targeting Russian Territory:
Bryansk Oblast: Missile danger alert issued (21:32 UTC), subsequently cancelled (21:41 UTC). UAV attack reported underway, Russian MoD air defenses active (21:53 UTC) (Governor Bogomaz).
III. Ground Combat Operations
(A) Eastern Front (Donbas)
Pokrovsk Direction:Highest Intensity. 61 RU attempts reported (UGS, 19:00 UTC); 6 ongoing. Attacks near Oleksandropil, Kalynove, Kotlyne, Udachne, etc. Significant RU losses reported by UGS. RU claims tactical advances S of Pokrovsk (Kotlyne, Shevchenko, Pischane). UA forces previously pushed back RU forces in lower Kotlyne (Mar 27). RU advance near Katerynivka confirmed (DeepState, Mar 27).
Toretsk Direction:High Intensity. 14 RU attacks reported (UGS, 19:00 UTC); 1 ongoing. Attacks near Krymske, Toretsk, towards Dyliivka. UA confirms RU advance near Panteleimonivka (DeepState, Mar 30). RU source maps depict potential encirclement advances. RU MoD previously claimed Panteleimonivka (Mar 29).
Lyman Direction:High Intensity. 14 RU attacks reported (UGS, 19:00 UTC); 4 ongoing. Attacks near Nadiia, Yampolivka, Kolodiazi; towards Nove, Novomykhailivka. UA confirms RU advance near Novoie (DeepState, Mar 30). Terny previously assessed almost fully RU-occupied.
Novopavlivsk Direction: 11 RU attacks reported (UGS, 19:00 UTC); 6 ongoing. Attacks near Kostyantynopil, towards Rozlyv, Vesele. RU claims liberation of Preobrazhenka, fighting for Bohdanivka/outskirts of Troitske, advances towards Kotlyarivka (Rybar, Mar 30). RU claims advance in Novoselka (Velyka Novosilka) (Сливочный каприз, Mar 30).
Kramatorsk Direction (incl. Chasiv Yar & Andriivske Direction):
2 RU attempts reported near Stupochky, towards Bila Hora (UGS, 19:00 UTC).
RU claims break-in to Rozlyv, liberating half the settlement, aligning front Razdolne-Rozlyv-Kostyantynopil (Rybar, Mar 30). RU claims light infantry attack achieved 2km advance reaching eastern outskirts of Rozlyv (Kurakhove area) (Сливочный каприз, Mar 30, citing Mar 29). UA confirms RU advance in Rozlyv (DeepState, Mar 30).
Intense fighting continues near Chasiv Yar, sniper activity reported (RU Source, Mar 30).
Kupyansk Direction: 6 RU assaults repelled (UGS, 19:00 UTC) near Radkivka, Pishchane, Bohuslavka, Petropavlivka, Zahryzove. RU sources claim advance >3.5km S of Dvurichna, occupying positions on outskirts of Kondrashivka (Сливочный каприз, Mar 30). RU advance near Orlyanske previously confirmed (DeepState, Mar 27). KAB strike on Kupyansk center reported.
Huliaipole Direction: 2 RU attacks repelled (UGS, 19:00 UTC) near Pryvilne, towards Vilne Pole. RU previously claimed breakthrough into Vilne Pole (Mar 27).
Orikhiv Direction: 4 RU attacks repelled (UGS, 19:00 UTC) towards Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove. RU MoD previously claimed liberation of Shcherbaki (Mar 29).
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): 2 unsuccessful RU attacks towards Sadove (UGS, 19:00 UTC). Positional fighting persists.
Intensity: Intense fighting and heavy Russian strikes continue. UGS reported repelling 20 Russian attacks in Kursk Oblast with 1 clash ongoing (as of 19:00 UTC, Mar 30).
Specific Locations:RU claims control of northern Uspenivka (Sudzha area), positions under UA drone attack (Сливочный каприз, Mar 30). Heavy fighting reported near Popovka, Demydovka (Belgorod). Fighting previously reported within Huyevo (Kursk). Ballistic missile strike on Shostka (Sumy) reported (22:20 UTC).
RU Logistics/Claims: Continued reports of RU logistics shortfalls. RU MoD claimed >160 UA losses in Kursk today. Claimed use of F-16/HIMARS/drone ambushes by UA forces. Confirmed UA airstrikes destroyed bridges impacting RU logistics (Mar 27).
IV. Key Developments & Other Factors
Russian Logistics: Persistent reports indicate significant shortfalls requiring volunteer support for vehicles, fuel, EW, drones, etc.
Counter-Drone Tactics: Russian sources show evidence of using nets deployed by drones to attempt interception of Ukrainian FPV drones (Colonelcassad, Mar 30).
New Threats: Report of camouflaged 'petal' mine variant (PFM-1) allegedly delivered via heavy drones (RU source, Mar 30).
Political/Diplomatic:
President Zelenskyy (Mar 30) highlighted ongoing daily Russian attacks (Cherkasy, Kherson, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Sumy, Kharkiv) as rejection of a multi-week US unconditional ceasefire proposal. Reiterated need for increased pressure (sanctions, air defense, partner unity).
US/UK Coordination: UK PM Starmer and US President Trump spoke, agreeing on the need to maintain collective pressure on Putin regarding Ukraine (RBC-Ukraine citing PM Office, Mar 30).
Finnish President Stubb reportedly proposed unconditional ceasefire by April 20 (Yle via Operatyvno ZSU, Mar 30).
Putin previously reiterated desire for resolution on RU terms.
Russian funds designated for UN contributions reportedly frozen in Gazprombank accounts opened by the UN Secretariat (TASS quoting Russian MFA, Mar 30).
International Support: Next Ramstein meeting April 11. Ongoing deliveries/pledges (Czech Republic, Netherlands, France).
Internal Russian Events:
Active shooter incident in Murmanskneutralized (shooter wounded, later confirmed as local resident b. 1981) by Rosgvardia SOBR/OMON units after opening fire from a rooftop (Multiple RU sources, Mar 30). Shooter reportedly refused negotiation attempts. Criminal case opened for attempting to kill law enforcement officers (SK RF, Mar 30). Incident caused localized disruption but unlikely to impact Ukraine operations directly.
Fire at nightclub in Vologda extinguished (TASS, Mar 30, not militarily significant). Widespread online scam attempts leveraging fake delivery services reported (Khabarovsk Police, Mar 30).
