Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 30, 2025, 21:56 UTC
(Incorporating information up to March 30, 21:56 UTC)
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 147 combat clashes as of 19:00 UTC, March 30. The highest intensity persists along the Pokrovsk Direction. Significant combat activity continues on the Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk directions, the Andriivske direction (Kurakhove area), and across the Kursk/Belgorod border region.
Russian Main Efforts: Primary offensive focus remains directed towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure is observed towards Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and Chasiv Yar. Russian forces maintain efforts to expand combat operations into Sumy Oblast (Confirmed CinC Syrskyi, Mar 27) and continue attempts to advance along multiple axes in Donetsk Oblast.
RU Claim (Rybar, Mar 30): Significant advances near Zaporizhzhia (Donetsk Oblast settlement), liberation of Preobrazhenka, engaging in combat for Bohdanivka and the outskirts of Troitske, advances towards Kotlyarivka. Partially corroborates earlier RU claims regarding Uspenivka (contested), Bohdanivka/Troitske, Nadezhdinka/Kotlyarivka, and Zaporizhzhia village.
RU Claim (Сливочный каприз, Mar 30): Advance of up to 400m within Novosilka (Velyka Novosilka area), establishing positions in the central part under UA fire.
Andriivske Direction (Likely aligned with Kramatorsk/Kurakhove axes):
RU Claim (Rybar, Mar 30): Assault units broke into Rozlyv, liberating half the settlement and aligning the front along Razdolne — Rozlyv — Kostyantynopil.
RU Claim (Сливочный каприз, Mar 30, 21:55 UTC, citing Mar 29): RU light infantry attack towards Rozlyv (Kurakhove area) achieved 2km advance, reaching eastern outskirts under UA fire.
UA Confirmation (DeepState, Mar 30): Russian forces advanced in Rozlyv.
Toretsk Direction:
UA Confirmation (DeepState, Mar 30): Russian forces advanced near Panteleimonivka. Follows RU MoD claim of capturing Panteleimonivka (Mar 29) and earlier DeepState confirmation of RU advance near Panteleimonivka (Mar 27).
Lyman Direction:
UA Confirmation (DeepState, Mar 30): Russian forces advanced near Novoie. Follows UGS reports of RU attacks towards Novoie.
Kupyansk Direction:
RU Claim (Сливочный каприз, Mar 30): Expanded bridgehead west of Oskil River, advancing >3.5km south of Dvurichna towards Kupyansk, occupying new positions on the outskirts of Kondrashivka. Corroborates UGS report of RU assaults near Radkivka, Pishchane, Bohuslavka, Petropavlivka, Zahryzove.
Sumy Border Area:
RU Claim (Сливочный каприз, Mar 30): Russian forces control the northern part of Uspenivka (Sudzha area), positions under UA drone attack. Follows earlier RU MoD claim of capturing Veselovka (Mar 29).
Previously Confirmed/Assessed (UA Sources): Incremental RU advances near Katerynivka (Pokrovsk), Panteleimonivka (Toretsk), Orlyanske (Kupyansk); Terny (Lyman) assessed almost fully Russian-occupied (DeepState, Mar 27/28).
Ukrainian Defensive Posture: Ukrainian forces maintain defensive lines, repelling numerous assaults. Noteworthy resilience cited for the 82nd & 95th Air Assault Brigades, 65th Mechanized Brigade, and 40th Marine Brigade (UGS, Mar 30). Operations focus on degrading Russian offensive capability through counter-battery fire, FPV drone strikes, EW employment, and cross-border actions. President Zelenskyy confirmed (Mar 29) ongoing Ukrainian active operations on Russian territory prevent Russian forces from staging significant offensive actions towards Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts.
II. Air & Strike Campaign
Shahed/Geran UAV Attacks:Ongoing Mass Attack. Multiple groups of UAVs continue to operate across northern, central, and eastern Ukraine.
Current Activity/Locations (as of ~21:55 UTC):
Sumy Oblast: UAVs north of Sumy heading SW; UAVs transiting from Shostka towards Nizhyn (UA AF / Nikolaevsky Vanek).
Chernihiv Oblast: UAVs near Pryluky and Nizhyn heading SW (UA AF / Nikolaevsky Vanek).
Kyiv Oblast: UAVs north of Kyiv (heading W); UAVs near Bila Tserkva (heading W); UAVs transiting from Cherkasy towards Bila Tserkva area (UA AF / Nikolaevsky Vanek).
Zhytomyr Oblast: UAVs on border with Kyiv Oblast heading SW; UAV reported over Zhytomyr city earlier (~21:00 UTC) (UA AF / Nikolaevsky Vanek).
Cherkasy Oblast: Multiple UAVs crossing into Bila Tserkva district (Kyiv Oblast); UAV east of Smila (UA AF / Nikolaevsky Vanek).
Kirovohrad Oblast: UAVs in north, south, and west of oblast heading W/NW; UAVs near Dolynska heading W (UA AF / Nikolaevsky Vanek).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: UAV north of Nikopol heading N (Nikolaevsky Vanek).
Air alerts remain active across numerous oblasts.
Impacts: Explosions reported earlier in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (ZOVA, 20:11 UTC). Previous major impact confirmed in Kharkiv (Mar 29 night: 2 KIA, 25 WIA, damage to hospital, residential, commercial). Hit confirmed on industrial zone in Poltava city (Mar 27). Energy infrastructure damage confirmed from multiple recent RU strikes. Continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure reported (Rybar, Mar 30).
RU Claimed Strikes (Mar 29-30, Rybar): Strikes on personnel concentrations including "Slavna" park complex in Chernechyne (Sumy Oblast) and a military hospital in Kharkiv.
Ballistic Missile Threat: Threat from NE direction ENDED as of 19:48 UTC (UA Air Force). Air alert active in Zaporizhzhia Oblast ENDED as of 21:32 UTC (Zaporizhzhia OVA).
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Use remains high.
Ongoing: Launches reported towards North Kharkiv Oblast (UA Air Force, 20:48 UTC). Previous launches towards Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast (UA Air Force, 20:18 UTC).
Kupyansk: Strike reported on the city center using a KAB (Kharkiv OVA, 20:16 UTC).
UGS reported 120 KABs used in 64 RU air strikes (as of 19:00 UTC, Mar 30).
Other Strike Activity:
UGS reported 1 missile strike, ~750 kamikaze drone attacks, ~4,000 artillery/mortar/MLRS shelling incidents (as of 19:00 UTC, Mar 30).
RU Claim (Radar Strike): Russian sources claim missile strike destroyed a Ukrainian ieMHR "RADA" multifunctional radar station near Petrushivka, Sumy Oblast (Mar 30).
Russian MoD claimed a strike neutralized up to 170 SBU/GUR personnel/mercenaries (Mar 30, RU Claim).
Sniper activity reported in Chasiv Yar (RU Source video, Mar 30).
Activity Targeting Russian Territory:
Bryansk Oblast: Missile danger alert issued (21:32 UTC), subsequently cancelled (21:41 UTC). UAV attack reported underway, Russian MoD air defenses active (21:53 UTC) (Governor Bogomaz).
III. Ground Combat Operations
(A) Eastern Front (Donbas)
Pokrovsk Direction:Highest Intensity. 61 RU attempts reported (UGS, 19:00 UTC); 6 ongoing. Attacks near Oleksandropil, Kalynove, Kotlyne, Udachne, etc. Significant RU losses reported by UGS. RU claims tactical advances S of Pokrovsk (Kotlyne, Shevchenko, Pischane). UA forces previously pushed back RU forces in lower Kotlyne (Mar 27). RU advance near Katerynivka confirmed (DeepState, Mar 27).
Toretsk Direction:High Intensity. 14 RU attacks reported (UGS, 19:00 UTC); 1 ongoing. Attacks near Krymske, Toretsk, towards Dyliivka. UA confirms RU advance near Panteleimonivka (DeepState, Mar 30). RU source maps depict potential encirclement advances. RU MoD previously claimed Panteleimonivka.
Lyman Direction:High Intensity. 14 RU attacks reported (UGS, 19:00 UTC); 4 ongoing. Attacks near Nadiia, Yampolivka, Kolodiazi; towards Nove, Novomykhailivka. UA confirms RU advance near Novoie (DeepState, Mar 30). Terny previously assessed almost fully RU-occupied.
Novopavlivsk Direction: 11 RU attacks reported (UGS, 19:00 UTC); 6 ongoing. Attacks near Kostyantynopil, towards Rozlyv, Vesele. RU claims liberation of Preobrazhenka, fighting for Bohdanivka/outskirts of Troitske, advances towards Kotlyarivka (Rybar, Mar 30). RU claims advance in Novoselka (Velyka Novosilka) (Сливочный каприз, Mar 30).
Kramatorsk Direction (incl. Chasiv Yar & Andriivske Direction):
2 RU attempts reported near Stupochky, towards Bila Hora (UGS, 19:00 UTC).
RU claims break-in to Rozlyv, liberating half the settlement, aligning front Razdolne-Rozlyv-Kostyantynopil (Rybar, Mar 30). RU claims light infantry attack achieved 2km advance reaching eastern outskirts of Rozlyv (Kurakhove area) (Сливочный каприз, Mar 30, 21:55 UTC, citing Mar 29). UA confirms RU advance in Rozlyv (DeepState, Mar 30).
Intense fighting continues near Chasiv Yar, sniper activity reported (RU Source, Mar 30).
Kupyansk Direction: 6 RU assaults repelled (UGS, 19:00 UTC) near Radkivka, Pishchane, Bohuslavka, Petropavlivka, Zahryzove. RU sources claim advance >3.5km S of Dvurichna, occupying positions on outskirts of Kondrashivka (Сливочный каприз, Mar 30). RU advance near Orlyanske previously confirmed (DeepState, Mar 27). KAB strike on Kupyansk center reported.
Huliaipole Direction: 2 RU attacks repelled (UGS, 19:00 UTC) near Pryvilne, towards Vilne Pole. RU previously claimed breakthrough into Vilne Pole (Mar 27).
Orikhiv Direction: 4 RU attacks repelled (UGS, 19:00 UTC) towards Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove. RU MoD previously claimed liberation of Shcherbaki (Mar 29).
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): 2 unsuccessful RU attacks towards Sadove (UGS, 19:00 UTC). Positional fighting persists.
Intensity: Intense fighting and heavy Russian strikes continue. UGS reported repelling 20 Russian attacks in Kursk Oblast with 1 clash ongoing (as of 19:00 UTC, Mar 30).
Specific Locations:RU claims control of northern Uspenivka (Sudzha area), positions under UA drone attack (Сливочный каприз, Mar 30). Heavy fighting reported near Popovka, Demydovka (Belgorod). Fighting previously reported within Huyevo (Kursk).
RU Logistics/Claims: Continued reports of RU logistics shortfalls. RU MoD claimed >160 UA losses in Kursk today. Claimed use of F-16/HIMARS/drone ambushes by UA forces. Confirmed UA airstrikes destroyed bridges impacting RU logistics (Mar 27).
IV. Key Developments & Other Factors
Russian Logistics: Persistent reports indicate significant shortfalls requiring volunteer support for vehicles, fuel, EW, drones, etc.
New Threats: Report of camouflaged 'petal' mine variant (PFM-1) allegedly delivered via heavy drones (RU source, Mar 30).
Political/Diplomatic:
President Zelenskyy (Mar 30) highlighted ongoing daily Russian attacks (Cherkasy, Kherson, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Sumy, Kharkiv) as rejection of a multi-week US unconditional ceasefire proposal. Reiterated need for increased pressure (sanctions, air defense, partner unity).
Finnish President Stubb reportedly proposed unconditional ceasefire by April 20 (Yle via Operatyvno ZSU, Mar 30).
Putin previously reiterated desire for resolution on RU terms.
Russian funds designated for UN contributions reportedly frozen in Gazprombank accounts opened by the UN Secretariat (TASS quoting Russian MFA, Mar 30).
International Support: Next Ramstein meeting April 11. Ongoing deliveries/pledges (Czech Republic, Netherlands, France).
Internal Russian Events: Active shooter incident in Murmanskneutralized (shooter wounded) by Rosgvardia SOBR/OMON units after opening fire from a rooftop (Multiple RU sources, Mar 30). Criminal case opened for attempting to kill law enforcement officers (SK RF, Mar 30). Motives/identity under investigation (local resident b. 1981 reported by SK RF). Incident caused localized disruption but unlikely to impact Ukraine operations directly. Fire at nightclub in Vologda extinguished (TASS, Mar 30, not militarily significant). Widespread online scam attempts leveraging fake delivery services reported (Khabarovsk Police, Mar 30).
