Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 30, 2025, 20:56 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 147 combat clashes as of 19:00 UTC, March 30. The highest intensity persists along the Pokrovsk Direction. Significant combat activity also continues on the Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk directions, and across the Kursk/Belgorod border region.
Russian Main Efforts: Primary offensive focus remains directed towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure is observed towards Lyman, Toretsk, and Novopavlivsk. Russian forces maintain efforts to expand combat operations into Sumy Oblast (Confirmed by CinC Syrskyi, Mar 27). Russian leadership (Putin, Mar 27) continues to claim strategic initiative and daily advances.
Territorial Changes:
Russian sources claim advances and/or control in several areas, requiring verification:
Kupyansk: Expanded bridgehead west of Oskil River, advancing towards Doroshivka. NEW (RU Claim, Mar 30): Advanced >3.5km south of Dvurichna towards Kupyansk, occupying new positions on the outskirts of Kondrashivka. (Corroborates UGS report of RU assaults near Radkivka, Pishchane, Bohuslavka, Petropavlivka, Zahryzove).
Novopavlivsk: Uspenivka (contested), Preobrazhenka, Bohdanivka/outskirts of Troitske, advances near Nadezhdinka/Kotlyarivka, and liberation of Zaporizhzhia village (Donetsk Oblast).
Pokrovsk: Tactical advances south of Pokrovsk near Kotlyne, Shevchenko, Pischane.
Toretsk: Advances potentially aimed at encircling Toretsk (depicted on RU source maps, Mar 30). RU MoD previously claimed Panteleimonivka (Mar 29).
Sumy Border: RU MoD previously claimed Veselovka (Sumy Oblast) (Mar 29).
Zaporizhzhia: RU MoD previously claimed Shcherbaki (Mar 29).
Ukrainian sources (DeepState, Mar 27/28) previously confirmed incremental Russian advances near Katerynivka (Pokrovsk), Panteleimonivka (Toretsk), Orlyanske (Kupyansk), and assessed Terny (Lyman) as almost fully Russian-occupied.
Ukrainian Defensive Posture: Ukrainian forces maintain defensive lines, repelling numerous assaults across multiple axes. Noteworthy resilience cited for the 82nd & 95th Air Assault Brigades, 65th Mechanized Brigade, and 40th Marine Brigade (UGS, Mar 30). Operations focus on degrading Russian offensive capability through counter-battery fire, FPV drone strikes, EW employment, and cross-border actions. President Zelenskyy confirmed (Mar 29) ongoing Ukrainian active operations on Russian territory prevent Russian forces from staging significant offensive actions towards Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts.
II. Air & Strike Campaign
Shahed/Geran UAV Attacks:Ongoing. Multiple groups of UAVs are currently active across northern, central, eastern, and southern Ukraine.
Current Activity/Locations (as of ~20:50 UTC):
High Concentration: Dozens reported in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv Oblasts airspace (UA Air Force Warning, 20:34 UTC).
Kyiv/Zhytomyr: UAVs reported W of Vyshhorod (Kyiv Oblast), heading towards Zhytomyr Oblast (Nikolaevsky Vanek, 20:50 UTC). Threat warning active for Zhytomyr Oblast (UA AF, 20:15 UTC). Air Defense active in Kyiv Oblast (KOVA, 20:03 UTC).
Chernihiv/Kyiv: UAVs near Chernihiv (possible AD work); others crossing from Chernihiv to Kyiv Oblast; UAVs heading towards/through Nizhyn & Pryluky (Nikolaevsky Vanek, 20:50 UTC).
Poltava/Cherkasy: UAV over Poltava city (UA AF warning, 20:51 UTC). UAVs heading towards Cherkasy city from East (UA AF, 20:30 UTC). UAVs S of Kremenchuk (NW course); others E of Smila (Nikolaevsky Vanek, 20:50 UTC).
Dnipropetrovsk: Multiple UAVs N of Samar River heading West (Nikolaevsky Vanek, 20:50 UTC).
Air alerts active in Kyiv City & Oblast, Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Cherkasy.
Impacts: Explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (ZOVA, 20:11 UTC). Previous major impact confirmed in Kharkiv (Mar 29 night: 2 KIA, 25 WIA, damage to hospital, residential, commercial areas). Hit confirmed on industrial zone in Poltava city (Mar 27). Energy infrastructure damage confirmed from multiple recent RU strikes.
Ballistic Missile Threat: Threat from NE direction ENDED as of 19:48 UTC (UA Air Force).
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Use remains high.
Ongoing: Repeat launches reported towards Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast (UA Air Force, 20:18 UTC). Launches towards North Kharkiv Oblast reported (UA Air Force, 20:48 UTC).
Kupyansk: Strike reported on the city center using a KAB (Kharkiv OVA, 20:16 UTC).
UGS reported 120 KABs used in 64 RU air strikes (as of 19:00 UTC, Mar 30).
Other Strike Activity:
UGS reported 1 missile strike, ~750 kamikaze drone attacks, ~4,000 artillery/mortar/MLRS shelling incidents (as of 19:00 UTC, Mar 30).
RU Claim (Radar Strike): Russian sources claim missile strike destroyed a Ukrainian ieMHR "RADA" multifunctional radar station near Petrushivka, Sumy Oblast (Mar 30).
Russian MoD claimed a strike neutralized up to 170 SBU/GUR personnel/mercenaries (Mar 30, RU Claim).
Russian sources claim UA F-16s/HIMARS used in Belgorod border region (Mar 30, RU Claim).
Ukrainian GUR claimed successful drone strikes against multiple RU air defense systems, CPs, and naval assets in Crimea (Mar 27). UA aviation confirmed destruction of bridges in Grafovka/Nadezhivka, Belgorod Oblast (Mar 27).
III. Ground Combat Operations
(A) Eastern Front (Donbas)
Pokrovsk Direction:Highest Intensity. 61 RU attempts reported (UGS, 19:00 UTC); 6 ongoing. Attacks near Oleksandropil, Kalynove, Kotlyne, Udachne, etc. Significant RU losses reported by UGS (281 neutralized, equipment destroyed). RU claims tactical advances S of Pokrovsk (Kotlyne, Shevchenko, Pischane). UA forces previously pushed back RU forces in lower Kotlyne (Mar 27). RU advance near Katerynivka confirmed (DeepState, Mar 27).
Toretsk Direction:High Intensity. 14 RU attacks reported (UGS, 19:00 UTC); 1 ongoing. Attacks near Krymske, Toretsk, towards Dyliivka. RU source maps (Mar 30) depict potential encirclement advances. RU MoD previously claimed Panteleimonivka (Mar 29). RU advance near Panteleimonivka confirmed (DeepState, Mar 27).
Lyman Direction:High Intensity. 14 RU attacks reported (UGS, 19:00 UTC); 4 ongoing. Attacks near Nadiia, Yampolivka, Kolodiazi; towards Nove, Novomykhailivka. Terny assessed almost fully RU-occupied (DeepState, Mar 27).
Novopavlivsk Direction: 11 RU attacks reported (UGS, 19:00 UTC); 6 ongoing. Attacks near Kostyantynopil, towards Rozlyv, Vesele. RU claims control/advances: Uspenivka (contested), Preobrazhenka, Bohdanivka/Troitske, near Nadezhdinka/Kotlyarivka, liberation of Zaporizhzhia village.
Kramatorsk Direction: 2 RU attempts reported (UGS, 19:00 UTC) near Stupochky, towards Bila Hora.
(B) Northeastern Front
Kupyansk Direction: 6 RU assaults repelled (UGS, 19:00 UTC) near Radkivka, Pishchane, Bohuslavka, Petropavlivka, Zahryzove. RU sources claim advance >3.5km S of Dvurichna towards Kupyansk, occupying positions on outskirts of Kondrashivka (Mar 30). RU sources previously claimed expanded bridgehead W of Oskil R., advancing towards Doroshivka. RU advance near Orlyanske confirmed (DeepState, Mar 27). KAB strike on Kupyansk center reported (Mar 30).
Huliaipole Direction: 2 RU attacks repelled (UGS, 19:00 UTC) near Pryvilne, towards Vilne Pole. RU previously claimed breakthrough into Vilne Pole (Mar 27).
Orikhiv Direction: 4 RU attacks repelled (UGS, 19:00 UTC) towards Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove. RU MoD previously claimed liberation of Shcherbaki (Mar 29).
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): 2 unsuccessful RU attacks towards Sadove (UGS, 19:00 UTC). Positional fighting persists.
Intensity: Intense fighting and heavy Russian strikes continue. UGS reported repelling 20 Russian attacks in Kursk Oblast with 1 clash ongoing (as of 19:00 UTC, Mar 30). CinC Syrskyi previously confirmed RU efforts to expand combat into Sumy Oblast (Mar 27). RU MoD previously claimed capture of Veselovka (Sumy Oblast, Mar 29).
Specific Locations: Heavy fighting reported by RU sources near Popovka and Demydovka (Belgorod Oblast), RU claim initiative in Krasnoyaruzhsky (Demydovka) direction, note heavy UA drone/arty use, claim RU FAB-3000 use (Mar 30). RU sources claim ongoing fighting within Huyevo (Kursk Oblast) (Mar 30).
RU Logistics/Claims: RU Marines operating near Sudzha (Kursk) reportedly requesting vehicle support (UAZ/Niva, ATVs) due to high attrition (Mar 30). RU MoD claimed >160 UA losses in Kursk today. Claimed use of F-16/HIMARS/drone ambushes by UA forces (Mar 30). Confirmed UA airstrikes destroyed bridges in Grafovka/Nadezhivka (Belgorod) impacting RU logistics (Mar 27).
IV. Key Developments & Other Factors
Russian Logistics: Persistent reports from Russian sources indicate significant logistical shortfalls requiring self-funding/volunteer support for fuel, vehicles (high attrition noted), EW equipment, optics, construction materials, tools, and generators. High demand for Mavic-type drones and vehicles continues. Report of Mavic drone loss due to failed drop mechanism (Mar 30).
New Threats: Report from RU sources of a new type of camouflaged 'petal' mine (PFM-1 variant), allegedly covered in grass and delivered via 'Baba Yaga' type heavy drones in containers of 40 units (Mar 30).
Political/Diplomatic:
President Zelenskyy (Mar 30) stated a US unconditional ceasefire proposal has existed for weeks, emphasizing Russia's disregard through continued daily attacks across Ukraine (Cherkasy, Kherson, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Sumy, Kharkiv). He reiterated Ukraine's readiness for diplomatic tracks with partners and stressed the need for increased pressure on Russia (sanctions, air defense, partner unity).
Finnish President Stubb reportedly proposed an unconditional ceasefire by April 20 (Easter/Trump's 3-month mark), backed by strong sanctions if violated (Yle via Operatyvno ZSU, Mar 30).
Putin (Mar 27/28) reiterated desire for resolution on RU terms, questioned UA leadership legitimacy, proposed temporary UN administration, and expressed readiness to work with Europe, BRICS, and North Korea.
International Support: EU Commission President outlined increased aid, continued sanctions, and strengthening European defense (Mar 28). Next Ramstein format meeting scheduled for April 11. Czech initiative aims for 1.5M shells in 2025. Netherlands confirmed accelerated delivery, €2bn for 2025. France confirmed €2bn package.
Russian Force Changes: Putin announced reorganization of Marine brigades into divisions (Mar 27). New naval strategy and appointments (Mar 27).
Internal Russian Events: An active shooter incident in Murmansk involving an individual firing from a rooftop has been neutralized by Rosgvardia SO BR units (Mar 30). The incident temporarily diverted internal security resources but is unlikely to have immediate strategic impact on the Ukraine front lines. Recovery operation of a sunken armored vehicle ongoing in Lithuania (potentially related to exercises) noted by RU sources (Mar 30).
