Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 30, 2025, 20:26 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 147 combat clashes as of 19:00 UTC, March 30. The highest intensity persists along the Pokrovsk Direction. Significant combat activity also continues on the Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk directions, and across the Kursk/Belgorod border region.
Russian Main Efforts: Primary offensive focus remains directed towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure is observed towards Lyman, Toretsk, and Novopavlivsk. Russian forces maintain efforts to expand combat operations into Sumy Oblast (Confirmed by CinC Syrskyi, Mar 27). Russian leadership (Putin, Mar 27) continues to claim strategic initiative and daily advances.
Territorial Changes:
Russian sources claim advances and/or control in several areas, requiring verification:
Novopavlivsk: Uspenivka (contested), Preobrazhenka, Bohdanivka/outskirts of Troitske, advances near Nadezhdinka/Kotlyarivka, and liberation of Zaporizhzhia village (Donetsk Oblast).
Pokrovsk: Tactical advances south of Pokrovsk near Kotlyne, Shevchenko, Pischane.
Kupyansk: Expanded bridgehead west of Oskil River, advancing towards Doroshivka.
Toretsk: Advances potentially aimed at encircling Toretsk (depicted on RU source maps, Mar 30).
Ukrainian sources (DeepState, Mar 27/28) previously confirmed incremental Russian advances near Katerynivka (Pokrovsk), Panteleimonivka (Toretsk), Orlyanske (Kupyansk), and assessed Terny (Lyman) as almost fully Russian-occupied.
Ukrainian Defensive Posture: Ukrainian forces maintain defensive lines, repelling numerous assaults across multiple axes. Noteworthy resilience cited for the 82nd & 95th Air Assault Brigades, 65th Mechanized Brigade, and 40th Marine Brigade (UGS, Mar 30). Operations focus on degrading Russian offensive capability through counter-battery fire, FPV drone strikes, EW employment, and cross-border actions.
II. Air & Strike Campaign
Shahed/Geran UAV Attacks:Ongoing. Multiple groups of UAVs are currently active across northern, central, and eastern Ukraine.
Current Trajectories/Locations (as of ~20:00 UTC):
Approaching Kyiv, Chernihiv, Kremenchuuk (Poltava Oblast) (UA Air Force Warning, 20:01 UTC).
Multiple UAVs active in E/Central Kharkiv (W/SW course), N Sumy (SW course), N/E/Central Chernihiv (SW course), N Kyiv (W course), Dnipropetrovsk/Poltava border (W/NW course) (UA AF, 19:52 UTC).
Earlier locations included S Poltava, near Balakliia, near Nizhyn, near Shostka (Nikolaevsky Vanek, 19:40 UTC). One UAV reported near Vyshhorod (Kyiv Oblast) (Nikolaevsky Vanek, 19:56 UTC).
Air alerts are active in multiple Oblasts, including Kyiv City & Oblast (UAV threat specified 19:36 UTC), Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr (threat warning 20:15 UTC).
Air Defense: Active in Kyiv Oblast (KOVA report, 20:03 UTC).
Impacts: Explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (ZOVA, 20:11 UTC). Previous hit confirmed on an industrial zone in Poltava city (Mar 27), labeled a war crime by UGS for targeting civilian/energy infrastructure. Energy infrastructure damage confirmed from at least 2 RU strikes (Mar 27/28). Explosions previously confirmed in Odesa (Mar 28).
Ballistic Missile Threat: Threat from the NE direction (warned 19:25 UTC), which triggered alerts including Kyiv, ENDED as of 19:48 UTC (UA Air Force). A fast-moving target was tracked from N Sumy towards Chernihiv Oblast (19:27 UTC).
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Use remains high.
Repeat launches reported towards Sumy Oblast (19:32, 20:18 UTC) and Donetsk Oblast (19:35, 20:18 UTC) by UA Air Force.
Kupyansk: Strike reported on the city center using a KAB (Kharkiv OVA, 20:16 UTC).
UGS reported 120 KABs used in 64 RU air strikes (as of 19:00 UTC, Mar 30).
Other Strike Activity:
UGS reported 1 missile strike, ~750 kamikaze drone attacks, ~4,000 artillery/mortar/MLRS shelling incidents (as of 19:00 UTC, Mar 30).
Russian MoD claimed a strike neutralized up to 170 SBU/GUR personnel/mercenaries (Mar 30, RU Claim).
Russian sources claim UA F-16s/HIMARS used in Belgorod border region (Mar 30, RU Claim).
Ukrainian GUR claimed successful drone strikes against multiple RU air defense systems, CPs, and naval assets in Crimea (Mar 27). UA aviation confirmed destruction of bridges in Grafovka/Nadezhivka, Belgorod Oblast (Mar 27).
III. Ground Combat Operations
(A) Eastern Front (Donbas)
Pokrovsk Direction:Highest Intensity. 61 RU attempts reported (UGS, 19:00 UTC); 6 ongoing. Attacks occurred near Oleksandropil, Kalynove, Kotlyne, Udachne, and other locations. Significant RU losses reported by UGS (281 neutralized, equipment destroyed). RU claims tactical advances S of Pokrovsk (Kotlyne, Shevchenko, Pischane). UA forces previously pushed back RU forces in lower Kotlyne (Mar 27). RU advance near Katerynivka confirmed (DeepState, Mar 27).
Toretsk Direction:High Intensity. 14 RU attacks reported (UGS, 19:00 UTC); 1 ongoing. Attacks near Krymske, Toretsk, towards Dyliivka. RU source maps (Mar 30) depict potential encirclement advances. RU advance near Panteleimonivka confirmed (DeepState, Mar 27). 20 RU soldiers surrendered to Azov Brigade (Mar 27).
Lyman Direction:High Intensity. 14 RU attacks reported (UGS, 19:00 UTC); 4 ongoing. Attacks near Nadiia, Yampolivka, Kolodiazi; towards Nove, Novomykhailivka. Terny assessed almost fully RU-occupied (DeepState, Mar 27).
Novopavlivsk Direction: 11 RU attacks reported (UGS, 19:00 UTC); 6 ongoing. Attacks near Kostyantynopil, towards Rozlyv, Vesele. RU claims control/advances: Uspenivka (contested), Preobrazhenka, Bohdanivka/Troitske, near Nadezhdinka/Kotlyarivka, liberation of Zaporizhzhia village. RU also claimed advances (Mar 27) in Vilne Pole, N of Burlatske, towards Komar/Otradne/Bohatyr, fighting for Vesele/Razlyv.
Kramatorsk Direction: 2 RU attempts reported (UGS, 19:00 UTC) near Stupochky, towards Bila Hora.
(B) Northeastern Front
Kupyansk Direction: 6 RU assaults repelled (UGS, 19:00 UTC) near Radkivka, Pishchane, Bohuslavka, Petropavlivka, Zahryzove. RU sources claim expanded bridgehead W of Oskil R., advancing towards Doroshivka (Mar 30). RU advance near Orlyanske confirmed (DeepState, Mar 27). KAB strike on Kupyansk center reported (Mar 30).
Huliaipole Direction: 2 RU attacks repelled (UGS, 19:00 UTC) near Pryvilne, towards Vilne Pole. RU previously claimed breakthrough into Vilne Pole (Mar 27).
Orikhiv Direction: 4 RU attacks repelled (UGS, 19:00 UTC) towards Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove. RU previously claimed breakthrough into Shcherbaky center (Mar 27, contradicts UGS).
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): 2 unsuccessful RU attacks towards Sadove (UGS, 19:00 UTC). Positional fighting persists.
Intensity: Intense fighting and heavy Russian strikes continue. UGS reported repelling 20 Russian attacks in Kursk Oblast with 1 clash ongoing (as of 19:00 UTC, Mar 30). CinC Syrskyi previously confirmed RU efforts to expand combat into Sumy Oblast (Mar 27).
Specific Locations:
Heavy fighting reported by RU sources near Popovka and Demydovka (Belgorod Oblast), RU claim initiative in Krasnoyaruzhsky (Demydovka) direction, note heavy UA drone/arty use, claim RU FAB-3000 use (Mar 30).
RU sources claim ongoing fighting within Huyevo (Kursk Oblast), showing alleged UA casualties (Mar 30). Previous RU claims (Mar 27) included securing MAPP Sudzha checkpoint, clearing Hoholiivka, advancing towards Oleshnia, consolidating in N. Huyevo.
RU Claims: >160 UA losses claimed in Kursk today (MoD). Missile strike near Oleshnia targeting UA 80th AAB (Mar 27). Use of F-16/HIMARS/drone ambushes by UA forces (Mar 30).
Logistics: RU Marines operating near Sudzha (Kursk) reportedly requesting vehicle support (UAZ/Niva, ATVs) due to high attrition (Mar 30). Confirmed UA airstrikes destroyed bridges in Grafovka/Nadezhivka (Belgorod) impacting RU logistics (Mar 27).
IV. Key Developments & Other Factors
Russian Logistics: Persistent reports from Russian sources indicate significant logistical shortfalls requiring self-funding/volunteer support for fuel, vehicles (high attrition noted), EW equipment, optics, construction materials, tools, and generators. High demand for Mavic-type drones and vehicles continues (Mar 30). One source reported Mavic drone loss due to failed drop mechanism (Mar 30).
New Threats: Report of a new type of camouflaged 'petal' mine (PFM-1 variant) observed, allegedly covered in grass and delivered via 'Baba Yaga' type heavy drones in containers of 40 units (Mar 30).
Political/Diplomatic:
President Zelenskyy stated a US unconditional ceasefire proposal has existed for weeks, emphasizing Russia's disregard through continued attacks, but affirmed Ukraine's readiness for diplomatic tracks with partners (Mar 30).
Finnish President Stubb reportedly proposed an unconditional ceasefire by April 20 (Easter/Trump's 3-month mark), backed by strong sanctions if violated (Yle via Operatyvno ZSU, Mar 30).
Putin (Mar 27/28) reiterated desire for resolution on RU terms, questioned UA leadership legitimacy, proposed temporary UN administration, and expressed readiness to work with Europe, BRICS, and North Korea.
International Support: EU Commission President outlined increased aid, continued sanctions, and strengthening European defense (Mar 28). Next Ramstein format meeting scheduled for April 11. Czech initiative aims for 1.5M shells in 2025. Netherlands confirmed accelerated delivery, €2bn for 2025. France confirmed €2bn package.
Russian Force Changes: Putin announced reorganization of Marine brigades into divisions (Mar 27). New naval strategy and appointments (Mar 27).
Internal Russian Events: Ongoing active shooter incident reported in Murmansk involving security forces (Mar 30). This may temporarily divert internal security resources but is unlikely to have immediate strategic impact on the front lines. Recovery operation of a sunken armored vehicle ongoing in Lithuania (potentially related to exercises) noted by RU sources (Mar 30).
