Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 29, 2025, 18:26 UTC
(Incorporating information up to March 29, 18:26 UTC)
I. Overall Situation & Combat Intensity
Combat Intensity: High. 143 combat engagements reported across the front as of 16:00 UTC, March 29 (UGS). Intensity remains elevated.
Primary Russian Focus: The Pokrovsk Direction remains the main axis of Russian ground offensive efforts, experiencing the highest combat intensity. Other contested directions include Lyman, Kupyansk, Toretsk, and the Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy border areas.
Environmental Factors: A significant dust storm continues to impact southern, central, and western oblasts with high winds (15-20 m/s), potentially degrading air operations (ISR, strike, transport), ground mobility, and visibility.
Potential Russian Offensive Preparations: Ukrainian Rada Security Committee Secretary Kostyenko assesses Russia is creating new units and accumulating resources but likely will not be ready for a major offensive until mid-late summer (July/August), contrasting with President Zelenskyy's earlier assessment of potential readiness by end of spring. Russian sources previously claimed a significant Ukrainian force buildup near the Bryansk Oblast border.
Civilian Impact: Russian strikes continue to cause civilian casualties and damage infrastructure, particularly noted in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Kryvyi Rih) and Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Polohy District).
II. Air, Missile & Drone Activity
Ongoing Shahed/Geran Attack:
UAVs detected moving through Sumy Oblast, course subsequently updated towards Chernihiv Oblast (UA Air Force, 18:15, 18:25 UTC). Air alerts active.
Russian Air Activity: Persistent Russian tactical aviation activity observed on northeastern and southeastern axes. Confirmed KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast.
Recent Russian Strike Claims & Impacts (Verify Where Noted):
Significant RU Claim (Dnipropetrovsk): Alleged strike targeting the HQ of the "Dnipro" Battalion and Command Post of the 356th Battalion in Dnipropetrovsk city. Claims include significant damage, casualties (6 KIA, ~12 WIA), vehicle/server destruction. (Requires Verification)
Significant RU Claim (Sumy - Chernechchyna): Alleged strike on Ukrainian command base in "Slavna" cottage park. Claims casualties (5 KIA, 8 WIA). (Requires Verification - Corroborated by multiple RU sources)
RU Claim (Sumy - Basy): RU MoD claimed Geran-2 UAVs hit temporary position of UA 80th Air Assault Bde battalion. (Confirmed by RU MoD & Corroborated by multiple RU sources).
RU Claim (Sumy - Bilopillia): Alleged strike on warehouses storing engineering equipment for fortification construction. (Dnevnik Desantnika 17:29 UTC).
Attacks on Civilian Infrastructure (Confirmed by UA):
Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Mar 29): Morning ballistic missile strike hit residential buildings. 9 civilians WIA (3 hospitalized). Damage to apartments, shop, vehicles. Emergency response ongoing. (Vilkul 17:34 UTC).
Nikopol District (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Mar 29): Sustained kamikaze drone/artillery attacks (Nikopol city, Marhanets community); infrastructure, building, houses damaged. No daytime casualties reported for district. (Vilkul 17:34 UTC, Lysak 16:33 UTC).
Synelnykove District (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Mar 29): Kamikaze drone attacks (Mezhivska community) resulted in 2 civilians WIA (hospitalized, moderate); houses/vehicle damaged. (Lysak 16:33 UTC).
Polohy District (Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Mar 29): Russian strike damaged private houses in one settlement. No casualties reported. (Zaporizhzhia OVA 18:14 UTC).
Dnipro City (Mar 28 Strike Aftermath): Total casualties updated to 25 WIA (9 hospitalized, 2 critical). Damage assessment includes destroyed/damaged houses, educational facilities, enterprises. Confirmed civilian targeting. (Lysak 16:33 UTC).
Alleged Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Territory:
RU MoD continues to claim Ukrainian UAV/HIMARS attacks targeted energy infrastructure in Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts (Mar 28), detailing alleged damage including Sudzha Gas Measuring Station destruction. (RU MoD Report 16:53 UTC).
Ukrainian Drone Development & Activity:
GUR Experimental Anti-Drone System: GUR revealed testing of a developmental "drone-vs-drone" system (joint UA/international partners), claiming successful interception of two consecutive Shahed-type UAVs during the Mar 29 night attack. Production to be scaled. (Tsaplienko 17:10 UTC, RBC-Ukraina 18:24 UTC).
Operational Drone Strikes:
Pokrovsk Direction: UA "Flying Skull" unit documented strike eliminating RU soldier. (Sternenko 16:26 UTC). UA "Apachi" unit FPV strikes documented. (Sternenko 17:58 UTC).
Motorcycle Units: UA forces documented destruction of RU personnel using motorcycles. (Butusov Plus 17:22 UTC).
Russian Drone Development & Tactics:
Tactical Evolution Claim: RU sources (Rybar 16:50 UTC) claim a shift in Geran/Shahed tactics to massed, multi-directional strikes converging on specific targets to overwhelm local air defenses (citing Odesa, Kharkiv, Dnipro examples). (Requires independent verification).
New FPV Aircraft Claim: RU sources claim development of "Klyuch-Fortuna" fixed-wing FPV drone with 50km range. (Voin DV / RIA Novosti 18:03 UTC).
NATO Anti-KAB Initiative:
NATO Innovation Challenge ("Counter glide bombs") results announced. Winning concept (French team "Alta Ares"): AI-based system for early detection, ID, and decision support using computer vision/ML on visual/acoustic data.
Other promising concepts included passive acoustic arrays with AI analysis, drone interceptors (including FPV swarms from container launchers), and EW methods (GNSS spoofing, GLONASS targeting, microwave weapons). Some EW concepts reportedly tested successfully in combat, reducing KAB hit rates. Projects selected for potential further development/testing. (DeepState 18:17 UTC).
UXO Clearance: UA sappers destroyed remnants of hostile UAV (Sofiyivska community) and modern AS-35 projectile (Zelenodolska community) in Kryvyi Rih District recently. (Vilkul 17:34 UTC).
III. Frontline Developments by Direction
Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod Border Operations:
Ukrainian Stance: DPSU denies Russian claims of border breakthrough and capture of Veselivka (Sumy). Confirms RU small group incursions towards Novenke/Zhuravka (Sumy), stating they are intercepted near/across border. UGS reports 17 RU attacks repelled in Kursk Oblast (Mar 29); 2 ongoing. Intense RU air/artillery continues. (Tsaplienko 16:43 UTC).
Russian Claims (Kursk RU):
Claim elements of 106th VDV cleared Hoholivka (VDV flag raised at memorial claimed), Sudzha border crossing, and are assaulting Oleshnia (RU). Persist in claiming Veselovka (Sumy). (Colonelcassad 16:48, 17:43 UTC; NgP raZVedka 17:41 UTC).
Claim advances in Huyevo (Kursk) and destruction of UA forces refusing surrender nearby. Claim clearing ops near Russkoye Porechnoye. (NgP raZVedka 17:41 UTC, Colonelcassad 16:48 UTC).
Footage released showing aftermath, including casualties, in "liberated" Pogrebki (Kursk Oblast). (Colonelcassad 18:14 UTC).
Russian Assessment (Kursk/Sumy Border):
Claim no new UA ground incursions into Kursk Oblast (past 24h). (NgP raZVedka 17:41 UTC).
Note increased UA use of longer-range FPV drones targeting RU logistics. (NgP raZVedka 17:41 UTC).
Claim detection of new, effective UA systems for locating RU drone launch positions, forcing RU repositioning. (NgP raZVedka 17:41 UTC).
Russian Claims (Belgorod RU): Claim forces secured eastern Demydovka (RU) but acknowledge continued UA presence. Claim advances/success in Popovka and Demydovka areas. Claimed Spetsnaz strike in Demydovka area. (RVvoenkor 17:34 UTC). Heavy fighting previously reported in Popovka (contested).
Active UA/RU drone operations reported. (Sternenko 16:26 UTC, Voenkor DV 16:31 UTC).
Significant RU air strikes persist. Heavy fighting previously reported in Tarasivka.
Chasiv Yar / Kramatorsk Direction:
Ongoing RU storming actions within/flanks of Chasiv Yar reported previously, but no major LoC changes claimed recently.
New UA Tactical Marking: RU sources report sighting new UA tactical marking (3 upward arrows in square) on UA 24th OMBr vehicles near Chasiv Yar. Speculation regarding intent (counteroffensive prep or deception). (Arkhangel Spetsnaza 18:20 UTC).
Vuhledar Direction: Russian sources shared footage showing extensive destruction in Vuhledar (late March 2025), stating major reconstruction not started. (Colonelcassad 17:51 UTC).
Lyman Direction: High combat intensity continues (UGS). Terny largely assessed as RU-occupied previously.
Kupyansk Direction: High combat intensity continues (UGS).
Toretsk Direction: High combat intensity continues (UGS). Urban fighting previously reported near Panteleimonivka.
Kherson Direction (Left Bank): Positional fighting. Ukrainian source released testimony of captured RU soldier (80th Arctic MR Bde) alleging poor command, abuse, corruption, and use of convicts in the unit. (Butusov Plus 18:08 UTC).
IV. Technological & Other Military Developments
Ukrainian Space Capability Development: Ukraine's MoD established Directorate of Space Policy. Aims to become primary customer for space tech, potentially establish dedicated space forces, acquire national defense satellites by 2030, enhance early warning/space situational awareness. Deputy Defence Minister stated Ukraine is moving towards establishing space forces. (Operatyvnyi ZSU 17:04 UTC, RBC-Ukraine 17:48, 18:03 UTC).
Russian Active Protection System Claim: RU sources claim Arena APS updated to counter vertical threats (e.g., top-attack munitions, drones). (Alex Parker Returns 18:19 UTC).
Russian Strategic Assessment (via Biletsky): Commander of UA 3rd Assault Corps assesses RU strategy as attrition ("thousand cuts") aiming to exhaust UA forces and force collapse/unfavorable terms. (RVvoenkor 16:30 UTC).
Russian Internal Information Environment: Reports of infighting/criticism among RU milbloggers regarding battlefield performance, leadership (Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kherson retreats; Kursk border situation), and portrayal of soldiers (e.g., dispute between 'Razvedos'/'Rusich' channels). Includes calls for investigations into alleged 'discreditation'. (Alex Parker Returns 17:26, 17:36 UTC).
US-Ukraine Economic/Resource Agreement Talks: Discussions continue on draft agreement potentially involving UA mineral resources. Ukraine seeking clarifications/changes: increased US investment guarantees, assurance against conflict with EU accession goals, clarification aid is not debt. Strong reservations reported from UA officials, comparing terms to "lifetime reparations". US (Trump admin) reportedly demanding UA sign deal giving Washington control over key economic projects, list required within 45 days. (Operatyvnyi ZSU 16:55 UTC, TASS 16:58 UTC, RVvoenkor 17:17 UTC, RBC-Ukraine/WP 17:55 UTC, Tsaplienko 18:10 UTC, Voin DV / WSJ 18:03 UTC).
Hungarian Political Maneuvering: Orban government launching postal survey on Ukraine's EU membership, accompanied by materials highlighting alleged negative impacts ("risks") for Hungary (funding, agriculture, wages, crime, health). Responses due June 20. (RBC-Ukraine 16:45 UTC, Operatyvnyi ZSU 17:48 UTC, Tsaplienko 18:19 UTC).
Poland Military Posture: Poland reportedly returning to mandatory military service to create a mass reserve army, citing need to enhance defence capabilities. (Voin DV / Polsat 18:03 UTC).
