Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 29, 2025, 17:56 UTC
(Incorporating information up to March 29, 17:56 UTC)
I. Overall Situation & Combat Intensity
Combat Intensity: High. 143 combat engagements reported across the front as of 16:00 UTC, March 29 (Ukrainian General Staff - UGS). Combat intensity remains elevated.
Primary Russian Focus: The Pokrovsk Direction continues to experience the highest combat intensity, remaining the main axis of Russian ground offensive efforts. Other key contested directions include Lyman, Kupyansk, Toretsk, and the Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy border areas.
Environmental Factors: A significant dust storm continues to impact southern, central, and western oblasts with high winds (15-20 m/s), potentially degrading air operations (ISR, strike, transport), ground mobility, and visibility.
Civilian Impact: Russian strikes continue to cause civilian casualties and damage infrastructure, particularly in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (notably Kryvyi Rih).
II. Air, Missile & Drone Activity
Russian Air Activity: Persistent Russian tactical aviation activity observed on northeastern and southeastern axes. Confirmed KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast.
Russian Strike Claims (Recent/Ongoing):
Alleged Geran/Shahed UAV strikes claimed by Russian sources targeting Zolotonosha (Cherkasy), Vinnytsia, Korosten (Zhytomyr), and Starokostiantyniv area (Khmelnytskyi).
Significant RU Claim (Dnipropetrovsk): Alleged strike targeting the HQ of the "Dnipro" Battalion and Command Post of the 356th Battalion in Dnipropetrovsk. Claims include server destruction, large fire (>1000 sqm), 17 vehicles destroyed, 6 KIA, and ~12 WIA. (Requires Verification)
Significant RU Claim (Sumy Oblast - Chernechchyna): Alleged strike on a temporary Ukrainian command base in the "Slavna" cottage park complex. Claims include destruction of multiple buildings (restaurant, cottages, hotel, warehouse) and casualties: 5 KIA, 8 WIA (incl. officers). (Requires Verification - Corroborated by Dnevnik Desantnika 16:53 UTC)
RU Claim (Sumy Oblast - Basy): RU MoD claimed Geran-2 UAVs hit a temporary position of the Ukrainian 80th Separate Air Assault Brigade battalion during a night attack. (Confirmed by RU MoD 17:04 UTC, Corroborated by Poddubny 17:24 UTC, Старше Эдды 17:39 UTC). Russian sources (Arkhangel Spetsnaza 17:20 UTC) also claim ongoing drone strikes targeting remaining Ukrainian fortifications in unspecified areas.
RU Claim (Sumy Oblast - Bilopillia): Alleged strike on warehouses storing engineering equipment for fortification construction (hangars, generators, welding equipment). (Dnevnik Desantnika 17:29 UTC).
RU Claim (Belgorod Oblast - Demydovka Area): Claimed strike by "Anvar" Spetsnaz targeting Ukrainian forces concentration on farms in Demydovka area, linked to Ukrainian cross-border operations towards Krasnaya Yaruga. (RVvoenkor 17:34 UTC).
Attacks on Civilian Infrastructure (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast - Mar 29):
Kryvyi Rih City: Morning ballistic missile strike confirmed impacting residential multi-story buildings. 9 civilians WIA (3 hospitalized, conditions not specified as severe). Damage to apartment buildings, shop, car wash, dozens of vehicles. Emergency services deployed, aid station established, assistance provided (building materials, financial aid applications processed for >100 families). (Confirmed by Head of City Defense Council Vilkul 17:34 UTC, Operatyvnyi ZSU 17:23 UTC).
Nikopol District (Nikopol City, Marhanets community): Sustained kamikaze drone and artillery attacks; damage to infrastructure, multi-story building, shop, 2 private houses reported. No casualties reported by Vilkul for Nikopol district daytime attacks. (Confirmed by Vilkul 17:34 UTC, Dnipropetrovsk OVA / Lysak 16:33 UTC, Operatyvnyi ZSU 17:23 UTC).
Synelnykove District (Mezhivska community): Kamikaze drone attacks resulted in 2 civilians WIA (58F, 35M, hospitalized - moderate condition); damage to 2 houses and vehicle reported. (Confirmed by Dnipropetrovsk OVA / Lysak 16:33 UTC, Operatyvnyi ZSU 17:23 UTC).
Aftermath of Previous Strikes:
Dnipro City (Mar 28 Strike): Total casualties updated to 25 WIA. 9 remain hospitalized (2 critical). Damage assessment updated: additional private house destroyed, ~10 damaged; 6 educational facilities, 2 dormitories, enterprises damaged. Confirmed deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure. (Confirmed by Dnipropetrovsk OVA / Lysak 16:33 UTC, Operatyvnyi ZSU 17:23 UTC).
Alleged Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Territory:
Russian MoD continues to claim Ukrainian UAV and HIMARS attacks targeting energy infrastructure in Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts on March 28, detailing alleged damage to substations, power lines, and the destruction of the Sudzha Gas Measuring Station (Kursk). RU MoD framing contradicts alleged previous statements by President Zelenskyy. (RU MoD Report 16:53 UTC).
Continued Russian claims of Ukrainian drone/shelling attacks on civilian infrastructure in Belgorod Oblast settlements (Mar 29).
Ukrainian Drone Development & Activity:
Experimental Anti-Drone System (GUR): Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) revealed testing of an experimental "drone-vs-drone" weapon system, allegedly a joint development with international partners. Claimed successful interception of two consecutive Shahed-type UAVs. (Tsaplienko 17:10 UTC). Details remain undisclosed.
Pokrovsk Direction: Ukrainian "Flying Skull" unit documented drone strike eliminating a Russian soldier. (Sternenko 16:26 UTC).
Kharkiv Oblast (OTU Kharkiv Claim): FPV drone crews of the 429th Separate Unmanned Systems Regiment ("ACHILLES") claim recent successes: 3 vehicles destroyed; 2 SAU, 1 tank, 2 vehicles, 1 ATV damaged; 1 RU KIA, 2 WIA. (OTU Kharkiv 17:30 UTC).
Motorcycle Units: Ukrainian forces documented destruction of Russian personnel using motorcycles, highlighting the vulnerability of this tactic. (Butusov Plus 17:22 UTC).
UXO Clearance (Kryvyi Rih District): Ukrainian sappers destroyed remnants of a hostile UAV (Sofiyivska community) and a modern AS-35 projectile (Zelenodolska community near Velyka Dolyna) in recent days. (Vilkul 17:34 UTC).
III. Frontline Developments by Direction
Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod Border Operations:
Ukrainian Stance (DPSU/UGS): Ukrainian Border Guard Service (DPSU) denies Russian claims of a border breakthrough and capture of settlements (specifically Veselivka) in Sumy Oblast. Confirms Russian forces use small assault groups attempting incursions towards Novenke and Zhuravka (Sumy Oblast), stating these are intercepted and destroyed near or across the border. UGS (16:00 UTC) reports 17 Russian attacks repelled in Kursk Oblast; 2 ongoing. Intense Russian air/artillery strikes continue (4 airstrikes/5 KABs, 155 shelling incidents reported by UGS). (Ukrainian denial confirmed Tsaplienko 16:43 UTC).
Russian Claims (Control/Advances - Kursk RU):
Claim elements of the 106th VDV cleared Hoholivka (RU), Sudzha border crossing, and are assaulting Oleshnia (RU). VDV flag raised at Hoholivka WWII memorial claimed. (Colonelcassad 16:48 UTC, 17:43 UTC; NgP raZVedka 17:41 UTC). Persist in claiming control of Veselovka (Sumy).
Claim Russian forces advanced in Huyevo (Kursk) and destroyed Ukrainian forces in nearby woods who refused surrender. (NgP raZVedka 17:41 UTC).
Claim no new Ukrainian ground incursion attempts into Kursk Oblast in the past 24 hours following Russian strikes. (NgP raZVedka 17:41 UTC).
Note increased Ukrainian use of longer-range FPV drones targeting Russian logistics in the border area. (NgP raZVedka 17:41 UTC).
Claim detection of new, effective Ukrainian systems for locating Russian drone launch positions, necessitating more frequent repositioning of RU drone crews. (NgP raZVedka 17:41 UTC).
Observe Ukraine constructing defensive fortifications along the state border; claim Russia is conducting strikes against these construction efforts. (NgP raZVedka 17:41 UTC).
Russian Claims (Control/Advances - Belgorod RU): Claim forces secured eastern Demydovka (RU) but acknowledge continued Ukrainian presence. Claim advances/success in Popovka and Demydovka areas. Claimed strike by "Anvar" Spetsnaz in Demydovka area. (RVvoenkor 17:34 UTC).
Pokrovsk Direction:
Remains the primary focus of Russian ground assaults. Ukrainian drone units active in targeting Russian personnel. (Sternenko 16:26 UTC). Russian sources (Voenkor DV 16:31 UTC) claim drone strikes targeting Ukrainian personnel and Starlink terminals near Pokrovske.
Vuhledar Direction: Russian sources shared footage showing extensive destruction in Vuhledar as of late March 2025, stating major reconstruction has not begun. (Colonelcassad 17:51 UTC).
Other Directions: Combat activity continues across Lyman, Kupyansk, and Toretsk directions with high intensity as previously reported.
IV. Other Military-Relevant Developments
Russian Strategic Assessment (via Biletsky): Commander of the 3rd Assault Corps ("Azov") Biletsky assesses Russia's primary strategy as attrition ("thousand cuts") aiming to exhaust Ukrainian forces physically and morally across the front, forcing a collapse or unfavorable terms. (RVvoenkor / Operatsiya Z 16:30 UTC).
Ukrainian Force Generation Proposal (Biletsky): Biletsky suggests Europe fund 250,000-300,000 Ukrainian soldiers via a 10-year fund as a more effective alternative to deploying smaller foreign contingents. (RVvoenkor / Operatsiya Z 16:30 UTC, Tsaplienko 16:56 UTC).
US-Ukraine Economic/Resource Agreement Talks: Discussions continue regarding a draft agreement potentially involving Ukrainian mineral resources and aid repayment. Ukraine seeks clarification and changes, including increased US investment guarantees and assurance the deal does not conflict with EU accession goals or classify previous military aid as debt. Ukrainian officials reportedly expressed strong reservations, with one comparing the terms to "lifetime reparations" imposed on a defeated nation. (Operatyvnyi ZSU 16:55 UTC, TASS 16:58 UTC, RVvoenkor/Operatsiya Z 17:17 UTC, RBC-Ukraine/WP 17:55 UTC).
Hungarian Political Maneuvering: The Orban government is launching a postal survey regarding Ukraine's EU membership, accompanied by materials highlighting alleged negative impacts ("risks") of Ukrainian accession (e.g., impact on funding, agriculture, wages, crime, public health). Survey responses due by June 20. (RBC-Ukraine 16:45 UTC, Sternenko 17:14 UTC, Operatyvnyi ZSU 17:48 UTC).
Ukrainian Military Space Policy: Ukraine's Ministry of Defence has created a Directorate of Space Policy, aiming to become a primary customer for space technology/services and potentially establish dedicated space forces. Goal includes own defence satellites by 2030, plus enhanced early warning and space situational awareness. (Operatyvnyi ZSU 17:04 UTC, RBC-Ukraine 17:48 UTC).
Russian Drone Tactics Evolution (RU Claim): Russian sources (Rybar 16:50 UTC) claim a shift in Geran/Shahed tactics towards massed, coordinated strikes from multiple directions converging on specific targets to overwhelm local air defenses, citing recent attacks on Odesa, Kharkiv, and Dnipro ports/locations as examples. This contrasts with previous dispersed attacks across wider areas. Suggests similar tactics may be applied with cruise missiles. (Requires independent verification of tactical shift effectiveness).
Russian Internal Information Environment: Reports of internal conflict/criticism among Russian military bloggers/channels regarding battlefield performance, leadership (specifically referencing retreats near Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kherson, and recent Kursk border situation), and the portrayal of Russian soldiers (e.g., dispute between 'Razvedos' and 'DSHRG Rusich' channels). This includes calls for investigations into perceived 'discreditation'. (Alex Parker Returns 17:26, 17:36).
Reported Ukrainian Casualties (UGS via Vilkul): Ukrainian General Staff daily loss claims for Russian forces (Mar 28): 1740 personnel, 23 tanks, 34 AFVs, 64 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 3 AD systems, 164 UAVs, 118 vehicles. (Vilkul 17:34 UTC). (Note: These are claimed figures).
