Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 29, 2025, 17:25 UTC
(Incorporating information up to March 29, 17:25 UTC)
I. Overall Situation & Combat Intensity
Combat Intensity: High. 143 combat engagements reported across the front as of 16:00 UTC, March 29 (Ukrainian General Staff - UGS). Combat intensity remains elevated compared to previous months.
Primary Russian Focus: The Pokrovsk Direction continues to experience the highest combat intensity, remaining the main axis of Russian ground offensive efforts. Other key contested directions include Lyman, Kupyansk, Toretsk, and the Kursk/Belgorod border areas.
Environmental Factors: A significant dust storm is impacting southern, central, and western oblasts with high winds (15-20 m/s), potentially degrading air operations (ISR, strike, transport), ground mobility, and visibility.
Civilian Impact: Russian strikes continue to cause civilian casualties and damage infrastructure, particularly in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Updated figures confirm significant casualties from recent attacks.
II. Air, Missile & Drone Activity
Russian Air Activity: Persistent Russian tactical aviation activity observed on northeastern and southeastern axes. Confirmed KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast.
Russian Strike Claims (Recent/Ongoing):
Alleged Geran/Shahed UAV strikes claimed by Russian sources targeting Zolotonosha (Cherkasy), Vinnytsia, Korosten (Zhytomyr), and Starokostiantyniv area (Khmelnytskyi).
Significant RU Claim (Dnipropetrovsk): Alleged strike targeting the HQ of the "Dnipro" Battalion and Command Post of the 356th Battalion in Dnipropetrovsk. Claims include server destruction, large fire (>1000 sqm), 17 vehicles destroyed, 6 KIA, and ~12 WIA. (Requires Verification)
Significant RU Claim (Sumy Oblast): Alleged strike on a temporary Ukrainian command base in the "Slavna" cottage park complex in Chernechchyna (Sumy Oblast). Claims include destruction of multiple buildings (restaurant, cottages, hotel, warehouse) and casualties: 5 KIA, 8 WIA (incl. officers). (Requires Verification - Corroborated by Dnevnik Desantnika 16:53 UTC)
RU MoD claimed Geran-2 UAVs hit a temporary position of the Ukrainian 80th Separate Air Assault Brigade battalion in Basy (Sumy Oblast) during a night attack. (Corroborated by Poddubny 17:24 UTC). Russian sources (Arkhangel Spetsnaza 17:20 UTC) also claim ongoing drone strikes targeting remaining Ukrainian fortifications in unspecified areas.
Attacks on Civilian Infrastructure (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast - Mar 29):
Nikopol District (Nikopol City, Marhanets community): Sustained kamikaze drone and artillery attacks; damage to infrastructure, residential buildings, shop reported. (Confirmed by Dnipropetrovsk OVA / Lysak 16:33 UTC, Operatyvnyi ZSU 17:23 UTC).
Synelnykove District (Mezhivska community): Kamikaze drone attacks resulted in 2 civilians WIA (58F, 35M, hospitalized - moderate condition); damage to 2 houses and vehicle reported. (Confirmed by Dnipropetrovsk OVA / Lysak 16:33 UTC, Operatyvnyi ZSU 17:23 UTC).
Aftermath of Previous Strikes:
Dnipro City (Mar 28 Strike): Total casualties updated to 25 WIA. 9 remain hospitalized (2 critical). Damage assessment updated: additional private house destroyed, ~10 damaged; 6 educational facilities, 2 dormitories, enterprises damaged. Confirmed deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure. Initial reports cited 4 KIA, 19 WIA. (Confirmed by Dnipropetrovsk OVA / Lysak 16:33 UTC, Operatyvnyi ZSU 17:23 UTC).
Kryvyi Rih City: Total casualties updated to 9 WIA, 3 remain hospitalized. (Confirmed by Dnipropetrovsk OVA / Lysak 16:33 UTC, Operatyvnyi ZSU 17:23 UTC).
Alleged Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Territory:
Russian MoD continues to claim Ukrainian UAV and HIMARS attacks targeting energy infrastructure in Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts on March 28, detailing alleged damage to substations, power lines, and the destruction of the Sudzha Gas Measuring Station (Kursk). RU MoD framing contradicts alleged previous statements by President Zelenskyy. (RU MoD Report 16:53 UTC).
Continued Russian claims of Ukrainian drone/shelling attacks on civilian infrastructure in Belgorod Oblast settlements (Mar 29).
Ukrainian Drone Development & Activity:
Experimental Anti-Drone System (GUR): Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) revealed testing of an experimental "drone-vs-drone" weapon system, allegedly a joint development with international partners. Claimed successful interception of two consecutive Shahed-type UAVs. (Tsaplienko 17:10 UTC). Details remain undisclosed.
Pokrovsk Direction: Ukrainian "Flying Skull" unit documented drone strike eliminating a Russian soldier. (Sternenko 16:26 UTC).
Kursk/Sumy Border: Russian sources claim ongoing evacuation of Ukrainian KIA from Kursk Oblast border areas (near Russkoye Porechnoye), indicating recent combat losses. (Colonelcassad 16:48 UTC).
Motorcycle Units: Ukrainian forces documented destruction of Russian personnel using motorcycles, highlighting the vulnerability of this tactic. (Butusov Plus 17:22 UTC).
III. Frontline Developments by Direction
Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod Border Operations:
Ukrainian Stance (DPSU/UGS): Ukrainian Border Guard Service (DPSU) denies Russian claims of a border breakthrough and capture of settlements (specifically Veselivka) in Sumy Oblast. Confirms Russian forces use small assault groups attempting incursions towards Novenke and Zhuravka (Sumy Oblast), stating these are intercepted and destroyed near or across the border. UGS (16:00 UTC) reports 17 Russian attacks repelled in Kursk Oblast; 2 ongoing. Intense Russian air/artillery strikes continue (4 airstrikes/5 KABs, 155 shelling incidents reported by UGS). (Ukrainian denial confirmed Tsaplienko 16:43 UTC).
Russian Claims (Control/Advances):
(Kursk RU): Claim elements of the 106th VDV cleared Hoholivka (RU), Sudzha border crossing, and are assaulting Oleshnia (RU). Persist in claiming control of Veselovka (Sumy). Russian sources claim ongoing clearing operations near Russkoye Porechnoye (Kursk Oblast). (Colonelcassad 16:48 UTC).
(Belgorod RU): Claim forces secured eastern Demydovka (RU) but acknowledge continued Ukrainian presence. Claim advances/success in Popovka and Demydovka areas.
Pokrovsk Direction:
Remains the primary focus of Russian ground assaults. Ukrainian drone units active in targeting Russian personnel. (Sternenko 16:26 UTC). Russian sources (Voenkor DV 16:31 UTC) claim drone strikes targeting Ukrainian personnel and Starlink terminals near Pokrovske.
Other Directions: Combat activity continues across Lyman, Kupyansk, and Toretsk directions with high intensity as previously reported.
IV. Other Military-Relevant Developments
Russian Strategic Assessment (via Biletsky): Commander of the 3rd Assault Corps ("Azov") Biletsky assesses Russia's primary strategy as attrition ("thousand cuts") aiming to exhaust Ukrainian forces physically and morally across the front, forcing a collapse or unfavorable terms. (RVvoenkor / Operatsiya Z 16:30 UTC).
Ukrainian Force Generation Proposal (Biletsky): Biletsky suggests Europe fund 250,000-300,000 Ukrainian soldiers via a 10-year fund as a more effective alternative to deploying smaller foreign contingents. (RVvoenkor / Operatsiya Z 16:30 UTC, Tsaplienko 16:56 UTC).
US-Ukraine Economic/Resource Agreement Talks: Discussions continue regarding a draft agreement potentially involving Ukrainian mineral resources and aid repayment. Ukraine seeks clarification and changes, including increased US investment guarantees and assurance the deal does not conflict with EU accession goals or classify previous military aid as debt. (Operatyvnyi ZSU 16:55 UTC, TASS 16:58 UTC, RVvoenkor/Operatsiya Z 17:17 UTC).
Hungarian Political Maneuvering: The Orban government is launching a postal survey regarding Ukraine's EU membership, accompanied by materials highlighting alleged negative impacts ("risks") of Ukrainian accession. (RBC-Ukraine 16:45 UTC, Sternenko 17:14 UTC).
Ukrainian Military Space Policy: Ukraine's Ministry of Defence has created a Directorate of Space Policy, aiming to become a primary customer for space technology/services and potentially establish dedicated space forces. Goal includes own defence satellites by 2030. (Operatyvnyi ZSU 17:04 UTC).
Russian Drone Tactics Evolution (RU Claim): Russian sources (Rybar 16:50 UTC) claim a shift in Geran/Shahed tactics towards massed, coordinated strikes from multiple directions converging on specific targets to overwhelm local air defenses, citing recent attacks on Odesa, Kharkiv, and Dnipro ports/locations as examples. This contrasts with previous dispersed attacks across wider areas. Suggests similar tactics may be applied with cruise missiles. (Requires independent verification of tactical shift effectiveness).
