Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 29, 2025, 17:05 UTC

I. Overall Situation & Combat Intensity

• Combat Intensity: High. 143 combat engagements reported across the front as of 16:00 UTC, March 29 (Ukrainian General Staff - UGS). Combat intensity remains elevated compared to previous months.
• Primary Russian Focus: The Pokrovsk Direction continues to experience the highest combat intensity, remaining the main axis of Russian ground offensive efforts. Other key contested directions include Lyman, Kupyansk, Toretsk, and the Kursk/Belgorod border areas.
• Environmental Factors: A significant dust storm is impacting southern, central, and western oblasts with high winds (15-20 m/s), potentially degrading air operations (ISR, strike, transport), ground mobility, and visibility.
• Civilian Impact: Russian strikes continue to cause civilian casualties and damage infrastructure, particularly in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Updated figures confirm significant casualties from recent attacks.

II. Air, Missile & Drone Activity

• Russian Air Activity: Persistent Russian tactical aviation activity observed on northeastern and southeastern axes. Confirmed KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast.
• Russian Strike Claims (Recent/Ongoing):
  • Alleged Geran/Shahed UAV strikes claimed by Russian sources targeting Zolotonosha (Cherkasy), Vinnytsia, Korosten (Zhytomyr), and Starokostiantyniv area (Khmelnytskyi).
  • Significant RU Claim (Dnipropetrovsk): Alleged strike targeting the HQ of the "Dnipro" Battalion and Command Post of the 356th Battalion in Dnipropetrovsk. Claims include server destruction, large fire (>1000 sqm), 17 vehicles destroyed, 6 KIA, and ~12 WIA. (Requires Verification)
  • Significant RU Claim (Sumy Oblast): Alleged strike on a temporary Ukrainian command base in the "Slavna" cottage park complex in Chernechchyna. Claims include destruction of multiple buildings (restaurant, cottages, hotel, warehouse) and casualties: 5 KIA, 8 WIA (incl. officers). (Requires Verification)
  • RU MoD claimed Geran-2 UAVs hit a temporary position of the Ukrainian 80th Separate Air Assault Brigade battalion in Basy (Sumy Oblast).
• Attacks on Civilian Infrastructure (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast - Mar 29):
  • Nikopol District (Nikopol City, Marhanets community): Sustained kamikaze drone and artillery attacks; damage to infrastructure, residential buildings, shop reported.
  • Synelnykove District (Mezhivska community): Kamikaze drone attacks resulted in 2 civilians WIA (58F, 35M, hospitalized); damage to houses and vehicle reported.
• Aftermath of Previous Strikes:
  • Dnipro City (Mar 28 Strike): Total casualties updated to 25 WIA. 9 remain hospitalized (2 critical). Damage assessment updated: additional private house destroyed, ~10 damaged; 6 educational facilities, 2 dormitories, enterprises damaged. Confirmed deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure. Initial reports cited 4 KIA, 19 WIA.
  • Kryvyi Rih City: Total casualties updated to 9 WIA, 3 remain hospitalized.
• Alleged Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Territory:
  • Russian MoD continues to claim Ukrainian UAV and HIMARS attacks targeting energy infrastructure in Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts on March 28, detailing alleged damage to substations, power lines, and the destruction of the Sudzha Gas Measuring Station (Kursk). RU MoD framing contradicts alleged previous statements by President Zelenskyy.
  • Continued Russian claims of Ukrainian drone/shelling attacks on civilian infrastructure in Belgorod Oblast settlements (Mar 29).

III. Frontline Developments by Direction

• Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod Border Operations:
  • Ukrainian Stance (DPSU/UGS): Ukrainian Border Guard Service (DPSU) denies Russian claims of a border breakthrough and capture of settlements (specifically Veselivka) in Sumy Oblast. Confirms Russian forces use small assault groups attempting incursions towards Novenke and Zhuravka (Sumy Oblast), stating these are intercepted and destroyed near or across the border. UGS (16:00 UTC) reports 17 Russian attacks repelled in Kursk Oblast; 2 ongoing. Intense Russian air/artillery strikes continue (4 airstrikes/5 KABs, 155 shelling incidents reported by UGS).
  • Russian Claims (Control/Advances):
    • (Kursk RU): Claim elements of the 106th VDV cleared Hoholivka (RU), Sudzha border crossing, and are assaulting Oleshnia (RU). Persist in claiming control of Veselovka (Sumy).
    • (Belgorod RU): Claim forces secured eastern Demydovka (RU) but acknowledge continued Ukrainian presence. Claim advances/success in Popovka and Demydovka areas.