Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 29, 2025, 15:26 UTC
I. Major Operational Updates
Overall Combat Intensity: High. 143 combat engagements reported across the front since the start of the day (as of 16:00 UTC, Ukrainian General Staff - UGS). Pokrovsk direction remains the most active axis.
Environmental Conditions:
Dust Storm: Affecting southern, central, and western oblasts with winds up to 15-20 m/s forecast through March 29. Potential impediment to air operations (ISR, strike, transport), ground mobility, and visibility.
Air Activity & Threats (Ongoing):
Persistent Russian tactical aviation activity on northeastern and southeastern axes, posing a threat of air-launched weapons.
Confirmed launches of Russian KABs (Guided Aerial Bombs) towards Sumy Oblast.
Earlier detection (approx. 13:19 UTC) of high-speed target(s) entering via Sumy Oblast, tracking towards Poltava Oblast. Missile alerts were active.
Sumy/Kursk Border Operations:
UGS Report (16:00 UTC): Ukrainian forces repelled 17 Russian attacks in Kursk Oblast since the start of the day; 2 engagements ongoing. Russian forces conducted 4 airstrikes (5 KABs) and 155 artillery shelling incidents (incl. 5 MLRS) in the area.
Russian Claims (Control): Russian MoD confirmation of Veselovka (Sumy Oblast) capture by Russian "Sever" Group forces persists. Russian sources claim capture of Hoholivka (Kursk Oblast, RU side), with subsequent reports indicating elements of the 106th Guards Airborne Division (VDV) raised a flag at a memorial there, asserting control. (Note: Fighting near Hoholivka previously reported Mar 27).
Russian Claims (Strikes/Losses): Russian MoD claims ongoing strikes against elements of Ukrainian Mechanized, Air Assault (x2), Presidential, and TDF brigades near Hornal, Guyevo, Oleshnia (Kursk Oblast, RU) and multiple settlements across Sumy Oblast. Russian MoD claims daily Ukrainian losses (Mar 28-29) in Kursk direction: >190 personnel, 2 IFVs, 1 BBM, 8 vehicles, 1 artillery piece, 3 mortars, 6 UAV command posts, 1 ammo depot. (Note: Claims require independent verification; cumulative claims often inflated).
Ukrainian Actions: Ukrainian 156th Territorial Defense Brigade claims recent drone strikes destroying Russian equipment and personnel (quad bike, UAZ, car, soldiers) in the Kursk direction.
Ukrainian Losses (Claimed): Video surfaced reportedly showing a burning Ukrainian Bgbv 90 Armoured Recovery Vehicle (ARV) in Sumy Oblast, claimed hit by a Russian fiber-optic drone near the Kursk border.
Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar):
UGS Report (16:00 UTC): Ukrainian forces halted 10 Russian attempts to advance towards Mayorske, Oleksandro-Shultyne, Predtechyne, Bila Hora, near Chasiv Yar, Stupochky, and Kurdyumivka. 3 engagements ongoing.
Failed UA Counter-Attack Claim (RU Sources): Russian sources (98th VDD) claim repelling a Ukrainian attack west of Chasiv Yar, attributed to the 42nd Mechanized Brigade, alleging 1 tank and 5 armored vehicles (incl. M113, Kirpi) destroyed by mines and FPV drones. (Note: Initial reports cited 24th Mech Bde).
New UA Tactical Sign Observed (RU Source): Russian sources claim a new Ukrainian tactical marking (three white arrows in a white square) was observed on equipment (allegedly involved in the failed attack near Chasiv Yar). Speculation links this to potential new counter-offensive preparations. (Note: Observation requires verification; potential indicator or RU IO).
Other RU Claims: Destruction of a Ukrainian tank near Predtechyne (SW of Chasiv Yar) by drone operators of the Russian 27th Artillery Regiment; evacuation of civilians from Chasiv Yar by Russian VDV forces (331st PDP, 98th VDD), alleging Ukrainian interference.
Pokrovsk Direction:
Highest Intensity: Remains primary Russian focus. UGS Report (16:00 UTC): 58 Russian attempts to dislodge Ukrainian forces since the start of the day near Panteleimonivka, Oleksandropil, Vodiane Druhe, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Novoserhiivka, Uspenivka, Novooleksandrivka, Sribne, Andriivka, and towards Kotliarivka. 45 attacks repelled, 13 engagements ongoing.
Significant Russian Breakthrough Claim (Unverified): Russian sources (RVvoenkor) claim units of the "Central" Group (90th Guards Tank Division) broke through Ukrainian lines after clearing a small settlement named Zaporizhzhia, advanced several kilometers past Kotliarivka, and are engaged in taking Bohdanivka (near Kotliarivka). Claim Russian forces reached beam SW of Kotliarivka, threatening semi-encirclement and nearing Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. (Note: Major claim requiring urgent verification).
Other RU Claims: Destruction of Ukrainian mortar crews in the direction.
Novopavlivsk Direction:
UGS Report (16:00 UTC): 12 Russian attacks near Kostiantynopil, Skudne, and towards Rozlyv. 6 engagements ongoing.
Russian Claims: Entry into Razliv and ongoing fighting; bomber strike by the 11th Air Force/Air Defense Army ("Vostok" Group) hit Ukrainian positions in Komar.
Shakhtarsk Direction (Related Area): Russian sources report drone operations by elements of the 14th Spetsnaz Brigade, 43rd Spetsnaz Company, and 656th Motor Rifle Regiment ("Vostok" Group).
Kupyansk Direction:
UGS Report (16:00 UTC): 3 Russian assault actions towards Pishchane and near Zahryzove.
Russian Claims: Claim strengthened positions near Kupyansk. Specific claim of advancing ~2km west from Orlyanske near Ivanivka, expanding zone of control. Positional fighting reported north of Ivanivka under Ukrainian fire. (Note: Previous RU claims from Mar 28 alleged advances into Mala Shapkovka, capture of Kondrashivka, entry into Tyshchenkivka).
Lyman Direction:
UGS Report (16:00 UTC): 13 Russian attacks near Nadiya, Yampolivka, Kolodyazi, Torske, and towards Nove and Novomykhailivka. 3 engagements ongoing.
Terny: Assessed as likely Russian-occupied (ISW).
Siversk Direction:
UGS Report (16:00 UTC): Repelled 2 Russian attacks near IvanŠ¾-Darivka and Pereizne; 1 engagement ongoing.
Toretsk Direction:
UGS Report (16:00 UTC): 12 Russian attacks near Krymske, Toretsk, and towards Dyliivka.
Ukrainian Assessment (Losses): Spokesperson for OTU "Luhansk" claims intelligence indicates Russia suffered 13,500 personnel listed as Missing In Action (potential KIA) during their offensive operations in the Toretsk direction. (Note: High figure, requires verification).
Mining reported as key Ukrainian defensive element (archival footage).
Huliaipole Direction:
UGS Report (16:00 UTC): 9 Russian attacks near Pryvilne, Novosilka, and towards Novopil. Russian airstrikes hit Huliaipole.
Zaporizhzhia Direction (Orikhiv Sector):
UGS Report (16:00 UTC): 2 Russian attacks near Kamyanske and Lobkove; 1 engagement ongoing.
Russian Claims: Successful FPV drone strike destroying a Ukrainian tank at its starting position near Novopavlivka (approx. 7 km from LBS, geolocated 47.580157, 35.714110). Positional fighting reported.
Kherson Direction (Prydniprovsky):
UGS Report (16:00 UTC): 2 unsuccessful Russian offensive actions towards Sadove and Prydniprianske.
Russian Claims (Drone Warfare): Russian sources (61st Naval Infantry Bde) claim successful use of FPV drones to destroy Ukrainian reconnaissance UAVs (Leleka-100, Darts, Furia, Heidrun, SHARK).
Ukrainian Drone Activity: Ukrainian source (Butusov Plus) highlights Russian complaints about new Ukrainian drone tactics allegedly bypassing EW, attacking rear areas, and threatening positions near Nova Kakhovka. Russian sources claim increased Ukrainian attempts by small groups to establish footholds on the Russian-held bank near the small railway bridge, alleging regular destruction by RU drones.
Kharkiv Direction:
UGS Report (16:00 UTC): Stopped one Russian attack near Vovchansk.
Crimea:
Counter-ISR: Illegally installed surveillance cameras directed at military objects discovered and dismantled in Sevastopol.
Shelling & Airstrikes on Border/Frontline Settlements:
UGS details extensive Russian shelling and airstrikes affecting numerous border settlements in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts (16:00 UTC). Specific Sumy Oblast towns hit by airstrikes: Mykhailivske, Naumivka, Stepok, Prokhody, Petrushivka, Uhroidy, Krasnopillia, Myropilske.
Civilian Casualties & Damage (Updates):
Kryvyi Rih (Mar 29 Missile Strike): 8 civilians injured, 3 hospitalized. Damage to buildings, shop, car wash, vehicles confirmed.
Dnipro (Mar 28 Drone Strike): 24 civilians injured, 9 hospitalized. Significant damage (incl. Bartolomeo complex). March 30 declared day of mourning.
Specialized chest rig for carrying two TM-62 anti-tank mines ("KB Cheglok" product) noted.
Continued heavy reliance on FPV drones (VDV, Naval Infantry, Artillery, Spetsnaz).
Reports persist (via Bild/RU sources) of new Geran-2 (Shahed) "swarm" tactics grouping drones close to target at low altitude to overwhelm air defenses.
Ukrainian:
Continued tactical drone strikes (Kursk equipment/personnel, tanks near Predtechyne & Novopavlivka).
UAV Successes: Claims by 81st Airmobile Brigade (HORIZON GROUP) of destroying 3 Russian Zala and 3 Supercam reconnaissance UAVs.
International Legion showcased use of Mavic drones for reconnaissance (zoom/thermal) and dropping ordnance on Russian positions.
Alleged new drone tactics bypassing Russian EW reported near Nova Kakhovka (Kherson).
Observation of potential new tactical sign (3 white arrows/square) on UA equipment near Chasiv Yar reported by RU sources. (Requires verification).
Cumulative Claims: Commander Syrskyi stated total Russian losses in automotive and special equipment since the start of 2025 reached 9,838 units.
III. Strategic Context & Assessments
Russian Strategy Assessment (Biletsky): Commander of 3rd Assault Corps, Andriy Biletsky, suggests Russia's primary strategy might be attrition ("thousand small cuts") across the front, aiming to exhaust Ukrainian forces physically and morally for collapse or capitulation, rather than seeking major operational breakthroughs.
Kursk/Sumy Border: Russia appears focused on establishing a "buffer zone" (claimed capture of Veselovka, Hoholivka; sustained pressure). UGS confirms significant ongoing engagements and heavy Russian shelling/airstrikes in Kursk Oblast where Ukrainian defensive operations continue.
Eastern Front:
Pokrovsk: Primary Russian offensive axis. Significant but unverified Russian claims of a multi-kilometer breakthrough past Kotliarivka towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.
Kramatorsk (Chasiv Yar): Intense fighting continues. Russian VDV pressure persists. Reports of both repelled RU advances and alleged repelled UA counter-attacks. Observation of potential new UA tactical sign warrants monitoring. High RU losses claimed by UA sources in Toretsk sector.
Lyman: High intensity, likely Russian control over Terny.
Kupyansk: Russian forces claim localized gains near Ivanivka.
Zaporizhzhia Front: Significant Ukrainian logistical reinforcement reported over the past week (740+ drones, EW, power sources, remote mining, fuel via Zaporizhzhia OVA), indicating efforts to bolster defenses. Positional fighting continues with localized attacks.
Information Environment:
Energy Infrastructure Narrative: Russian sources maintain focus on alleged Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy facilities (Belgorod, Kursk - Sudzha GMS), contrasting with alleged US statements suggesting an "energy ceasefire".
Russian Claims: Emphasis on alleged territorial gains (Veselovka, Hoholivka, Kotliarivka area breakthrough, Razliv, Ivanivka area), repelled UA attacks (Chasiv Yar), UA losses, alleged UA civilian attacks (Horlivka), and alleged mistreatment of surrendered UA soldiers.
US Military Aid: Long-term US investment shown by $4.9B contract for 1296 PrSM missiles (ATACMS replacement), including moving target capable variant. Target production 400/year, completion ~2030. Reports of potential security lapse regarding US SecDef Hegseth allegedly bringing wife to classified meetings on Ukraine (WSJ). Potential Pentagon civilian staff cuts noted (RBC-Ua).
European Coordination/Support: Finnish President Stubb clarified any "coalition of the willing" troop deployment would only be post-ceasefire/peace agreement, following earlier proposal for EU envoy. Protests against arms supplies to Ukraine observed in Paris.
Settlement Perspectives: Hungarian FM Szijjarto emphasizes need for US-Russia agreement for settlement.
Economic Outlook: IMF baseline scenario (Mar 28 report) assumes war end by late 2025, notes high risks, slightly downgrades UA 2025 growth forecast.
Regional Dynamics: Moldovan/Gagauzia tensions noted following arrest of Gagauz leader.
IV. Confirmed Recent Developments (Prior 1-3 Days)
Ground Advances (ISW Confirmed/Assessed - Maps Published Mar 29):
Ukrainian: Advance into eastern Popovka (Belgorod Oblast, RU).
Russian: Advances near Guyevo (Kursk Oblast, RU); near Terny (Lyman); near Tsentralna mine (Toretsk); north of Andriivka (Novopavlivsk); north of Zherebyanky (Zaporizhzhia West).
Significant Strikes (Confirmed):
Ukrainian HIMARS Strike: Eliminated Russian Major Marat Tibilov (Rosgvardia Spetsnaz HVT) near Cherkasske-Porechne (Kursk Oblast, Mar 26-27).
Ukrainian Air Strikes: Destroyed bridges in Grafovka and Nadezhivka (Belgorod Oblast, RU) (Confirmed Mar 27).
Russian Drone Strike (Dnipro, Mar 28): Confirmed deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure (restaurant, homes, residential buildings), resulting in civilian casualties (Updated: 24 injured).
Sudzha GIS Strike (Kursk, RU): Significant damage confirmed (Mar 28). Russia attributes to HIMARS, Ukraine denies. Key factor cited by Russia for abandoning alleged energy moratorium.
Repatriation/Body Exchange (Mar 28): Ukraine received 909 bodies of fallen defenders. Russia received bodies. RU Ombudsman claimed return of 25 civilians from Kursk border area.
Command Changes: Andriy Hnatov officially appointed Chief of the General Staff (Mar 28).
