Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 29, 2025, 14:56 UTC
I. Major Operational Updates (Recent Hours & Developments)
Environmental Conditions:
Dust Storm: Reports indicate a dust storm affecting southern, central, and western oblasts, with winds up to 15-20 m/s forecast through the end of March 29. This may impede air operations (ISR, strike, transport), ground mobility, and visibility (14:29 UTC).
Air Activity & Threats (Ongoing):
Ongoing activity of Russian tactical aviation reported on northeastern and southeastern axes, posing a threat of air-launched weapons (13:46 UTC).
Confirmed launches of Russian KABs (Guided Aerial Bombs) towards Sumy Oblast (13:47 UTC).
Earlier detection of high-speed target(s) entering via Sumy Oblast, heading towards Poltava Oblast (Approx. 13:19 - 13:23 UTC); missile alerts were active.
Sumy/Kursk Border Operations:
Russian MoD confirmation of Veselovka (Sumy Oblast) capture by Russian "Sever" Group forces persists (13:27 UTC, reinforced 14:34 UTC).
Russian sources claim capture of Hoholivka (Kursk Oblast, RU side) (14:09 UTC). (Note: Fighting near Hoholivka previously reported Mar 27).
Russian MoD claims ongoing strikes against elements of Ukrainian Mechanized, Air Assault (x2), Presidential, and TDF brigades near Hornal, Guyevo, Oleshnia (Kursk Oblast, RU) and multiple settlements across Sumy Oblast (13:27 UTC).
Ukrainian 156th Territorial Defense Brigade claims recent drone strikes destroying Russian equipment and personnel in the Kursk direction (quad bike, UAZ, car, soldiers) (13:42 UTC).
Video surfaced reportedly showing a burning Ukrainian Bgbv 90 Armoured Recovery Vehicle (ARV) in Sumy Oblast, claimed hit by a Russian fiber-optic drone near the Kursk border (13:03 UTC).
UGS Report (16:00 UTC): Ukrainian forces repelled 17 Russian attacks in Kursk Oblast since the start of the day; 2 engagements ongoing. RU forces conducted 4 airstrikes (5 KABs) and 155 artillery shelling incidents (incl. 5 MLRS) in the area.
Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar):
Failed RU Advance Attempt Repelled: UGS reports halting 10 Russian attempts to advance towards Mayorske, Oleksandro-Shultyne, Predtechyne, Bila Hora, near Chasiv Yar, Stupochky, and Kurdyumivka. 3 engagements ongoing (16:00 UTC).
Failed UA Counter-Attack Claim (RU Sources): Russian sources (98th VDD) claim repelling a Ukrainian attack west of Chasiv Yar. Initial reports cited the 24th Mechanized Brigade (13:05 UTC), later reports cite the 42nd Mechanized Brigade, alleging 1 tank and 5 armored vehicles (incl. M113, Kirpi) destroyed by mines and FPV drones (14:41 UTC).
New UA Tactical Sign Observed (RU Source): Russian sources claim a new Ukrainian tactical marking (three white arrows in a white square) was observed on equipment (allegedly 24th Mech Bde) involved in the failed attack near Chasiv Yar. Speculation links this to potential new counter-offensive preparations (14:49 UTC). (Note: Observation requires verification; potential indicator or RU IO).
Russian sources claim destruction of a Ukrainian tank near Predtechyne (SW of Chasiv Yar) by drone operators of the Russian 27th Artillery Regiment (13:43 UTC).
Russian sources report evacuation of civilians from Chasiv Yar by Russian VDV forces (331st PDP, 98th VDD), alleging Ukrainian interference (14:15 UTC).
Pokrovsk Direction:
Highest Intensity: Remains primary Russian focus. UGS reports 58 Russian attempts to dislodge Ukrainian forces since the start of the day near Panteleimonivka, Oleksandropil, Vodiane Druhe, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Novoserhiivka, Uspenivka, Novooleksandrivka, Sribne, Andriivka, and towards Kotliarivka. 45 attacks repelled, 13 engagements ongoing (16:00 UTC).
Significant Russian Breakthrough Claim (Unverified): Russian sources (RVvoenkor) claim units of the "Central" Group (90th Guards Tank Division) broke through Ukrainian lines after clearing a small settlement named Zaporizhzhia, advanced several kilometers past Kotliarivka, and are engaged in taking Bohdanivka (near Kotliarivka). Claim Russian forces reached beam SW of Kotliarivka, threatening semi-encirclement and nearing Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border (14:17 UTC). (Note: Major claim requiring urgent verification).
Russian sources claim destruction of Ukrainian mortar crews in the direction (14:10 UTC).
Novopavlivsk Direction:
UGS reports 12 Russian attacks near Kostiantynopil, Skudne, and towards Rozlyv. 6 engagements ongoing (16:00 UTC).
Russian sources claim entry into Razliv and ongoing fighting (13:11 UTC).
Russian sources claim a bomber strike by the 11th Air Force/Air Defense Army ("Vostok" Group) hit Ukrainian positions in Komar (13:30 UTC).
Kupyansk Direction:
UGS reports 3 Russian assault actions towards Pishchane and near Zahryzove (16:00 UTC).
Russian sources claim strengthened positions near Kupyansk (14:09 UTC). (Note: Previous RU claims from Mar 28 alleged advances into Mala Shapkovka, capture of Kondrashivka, entry into Tyshchenkivka).
Lyman Direction:
UGS reports 13 Russian attacks near Nadiya, Yampolivka, Kolodyazi, Torske, and towards Nove and Novomykhailivka. 3 engagements ongoing (16:00 UTC).
Terny: Previously assessed as likely Russian-occupied (ISW).
Siversk Direction:
UGS reports repelling 2 Russian attacks near IvanŠ¾-Darivka and Pereizne; 1 engagement ongoing (16:00 UTC).
Toretsk Direction:
UGS reports 12 Russian attacks near Krymske, Toretsk, and towards Dyliivka (16:00 UTC).
Emphasis on mining as a key defensive element reported near Toretsk (archival footage) (13:28 UTC).
Huliaipole Direction:
UGS reports 9 Russian attacks near Pryvilne, Novosilka, and towards Novopil. Russian airstrikes hit Huliaipole (16:00 UTC).
Zaporizhzhia Direction (Orikhiv Sector):
UGS reports 2 Russian attacks near Kamyanske and Lobkove; 1 engagement ongoing (16:00 UTC).
Russian sources claim successful FPV drone strike destroying a Ukrainian tank at its starting position near Novopavlivka (approx. 7 km from LBS, geolocated 47.580157, 35.714110) (14:09 UTC). Positional fighting reported.
Kherson Direction (Prydniprovsky):
UGS reports 2 unsuccessful Russian offensive actions towards Sadove and Prydniprianske (16:00 UTC).
Russian sources (61st Naval Infantry Bde) claim successful use of FPV drones to destroy Ukrainian reconnaissance UAVs (Leleka-100, Darts, Furia, Heidrun, SHARK) (13:34 UTC, 14:22 UTC).
Ukrainian source (Butusov Plus) highlights Russian complaints about new Ukrainian drone tactics allegedly bypassing EW, attacking rear areas, and threatening positions near Nova Kakhovka. Acknowledges UA strikes on "peaceful" objects (likely RU framing) (14:18 UTC).
Kharkiv Direction:
UGS reports stopping one Russian attack near Vovchansk (16:00 UTC).
Shelling & Airstrikes on Border/Frontline Settlements:
UGS details extensive Russian shelling and airstrikes affecting numerous border settlements in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts (16:00 UTC). Specific Sumy Oblast towns hit by airstrikes: Mykhailivske, Naumivka, Stepok, Prokhody, Petrushivka, Uhroidy, Krasnopillia, Myropilske.
Specialized chest rig for carrying two TM-62 anti-tank mines ("KB Cheglok" product) noted (13:00 UTC, reinforced 14:42 UTC).
Continued heavy reliance on FPV drones (VDV, Naval Infantry, Artillery).
Reports persist (via Bild/RU sources) of new Geran-2 (Shahed) "swarm" tactics grouping drones close to target at low altitude to overwhelm air defenses (14:04 UTC, 14:39 UTC).
Ukrainian:
Continued tactical drone strikes (Kursk equipment/personnel, tank near Predtechyne, tank near Novopavlivka).
International Legion showcased use of Mavic drones for reconnaissance (zoom/thermal) and dropping ordnance on Russian positions (14:43 UTC).
Alleged new drone tactics bypassing Russian EW reported near Nova Kakhovka (Kherson) (14:18 UTC).
Observation of potential new tactical sign (3 white arrows/square) on UA equipment near Chasiv Yar reported by RU sources (14:49 UTC). (Requires verification).
II. Strategic Context & Assessments
Overall Combat Intensity: High. UGS reports 143 combat engagements across the front since the start of the day (as of 16:00 UTC). The Pokrovsk direction remains the most intense axis (58 RU attacks).
Russian Strategy Assessment (Biletsky): Commander of 3rd Assault Corps, Andriy Biletsky, suggests Russia's primary strategy might be attrition ("thousand small cuts") across the front, aiming to exhaust Ukrainian forces physically and morally for collapse or capitulation, rather than seeking major operational breakthroughs (13:26 UTC, 14:16 UTC).
Kursk/Sumy Border: Russia appears focused on establishing a "buffer zone" (claimed capture of Veselovka, Hoholivka; sustained pressure). UGS confirms significant ongoing engagements and heavy Russian shelling/airstrikes in Kursk Oblast where Ukrainian defensive operations continue.
Eastern Front:
Pokrovsk: Primary Russian offensive axis. Significant but unverified Russian claims of a multi-kilometer breakthrough past Kotliarivka towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.
Kramatorsk (Chasiv Yar): Intense fighting continues. Russian VDV pressure persists. Reports of both repelled RU advances and alleged repelled UA counter-attacks (potentially involving 24th and/or 42nd Mech Bdes). Observation of potential new UA tactical sign warrants monitoring.
Lyman: High intensity, likely Russian control over Terny.
Zaporizhzhia Front: Significant Ukrainian logistical reinforcement reported over the past week (740+ drones, EW, power sources, remote mining, fuel via Zaporizhzhia OVA - 14:14 UTC), indicating efforts to bolster defenses. Positional fighting continues with localized attacks.
Information Environment:
Energy Infrastructure Narrative: Russian sources maintain focus on alleged Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy facilities (Belgorod, Kursk - Sudzha GMS), contrasting with alleged US statements suggesting an "energy ceasefire" (Colonelcassad, 13:59 UTC).
Russian Claims: Emphasis on alleged territorial gains (Veselovka, Hoholivka, Kotliarivka area breakthrough, Razliv), repelled UA attacks (Chasiv Yar), UA losses, alleged UA civilian attacks (Horlivka), and alleged mistreatment of surrendered UA soldiers who purportedly attacked them (Mash, 14:29 UTC - likely IO).
US Military Aid: Long-term US investment shown by $4.9B contract for 1296 PrSM missiles (ATACMS replacement), including moving target capable variant. Target production 400/year, completion ~2030 (14:00 UTC).
European Coordination/Potential Deployment: Finnish President Stubb clarified any "coalition of the willing" troop deployment would only be post-ceasefire/peace agreement (14:13 UTC), following earlier proposal for EU envoy (13:39 UTC).
Settlement Perspectives: Hungarian FM Szijjarto emphasizes need for US-Russia agreement for settlement (14:19 UTC).
Economic Outlook: IMF baseline scenario (Mar 28 report) assumes war end by late 2025, notes high risks, slightly downgrades UA 2025 growth forecast (13:57 UTC).
Regional Dynamics: Reports of US BREM sinking in Lithuanian swamp during exercises used in Russian IO (14:08 UTC). Moldovan/Gagauzia tensions noted (14:33 UTC).
III. Confirmed Recent Developments (Prior 1-3 Days)
Ground Advances (ISW Confirmed/Assessed - Maps Published Mar 29):
Ukrainian: Advance into eastern Popovka (Belgorod Oblast, RU).
Russian: Advances near Guyevo (Kursk Oblast, RU); near Terny (Lyman); near Tsentralna mine (Toretsk); north of Andriivka (Novopavlivsk); north of Zherebyanky (Zaporizhzhia West).
Significant Strikes (Confirmed):
Ukrainian HIMARS Strike: Eliminated Russian Major Marat Tibilov (Rosgvardia Spetsnaz HVT) near Cherkasske-Porechne (Kursk Oblast, Mar 26-27).
Ukrainian Air Strikes: Destroyed bridges in Grafovka and Nadezhivka (Belgorod Oblast, RU) (Confirmed Mar 27).
Russian Drone Strike (Dnipro, Mar 28): Confirmed deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure (restaurant, homes, residential buildings), resulting in civilian casualties (Updated: 24 injured).
Sudzha GIS Strike (Kursk, RU): Significant damage confirmed (Mar 28). Russia attributes to HIMARS, Ukraine denies. Key factor cited by Russia for abandoning alleged energy moratorium.
Repatriation/Body Exchange (Mar 28): Ukraine received 909 bodies of fallen defenders. Russia received bodies (details vary slightly by source). RU Ombudsman claimed return of 25 civilians from Kursk border area.
Command Changes: Andriy Hnatov officially appointed Chief of the General Staff (Mar 28).
