Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 29, 2025, 14:26 UTC
I. Major Operational Updates (Recent Hours & Developments)
Air Activity & Threats (Ongoing):
Ukrainian Air Force reports ongoing activity of Russian tactical aviation on northeastern and southeastern axes, with a threat of air-launched weapons (13:46 UTC).
Confirmed launches of Russian KABs (Guided Aerial Bombs) towards Sumy Oblast (13:47 UTC).
Earlier, high-speed target(s) detected entering via Sumy Oblast, moving towards Poltava Oblast (Approx. 13:19 - 13:23 UTC). Missile alerts were active.
Sumy/Kursk Border Operations:
Russian MoD confirmed capture of Veselovka (Sumy Oblast) by Russian "Sever" Group forces (13:27 UTC).
Russian sources claim capture of Hoholivka (Kursk Oblast, RU side) (14:09 UTC). (Note: Fighting near Hoholivka previously reported Mar 27).
Russian MoD claims ongoing strikes against elements of Ukrainian Mechanized, Air Assault (x2), Presidential, and TDF brigades near Hornal, Guyevo, Oleshnia (Kursk Oblast, RU) and numerous settlements across Sumy Oblast (13:27 UTC).
Russian MoD claims daily Ukrainian losses (Mar 28-29) in Kursk direction: >190 personnel, 2 IFVs, 1 BBM, 8 vehicles, 1 artillery piece, 3 mortars, 6 UAV command posts, 1 ammo depot (13:27 UTC). (Note: Claim requires independent verification). Cumulative loss claims since start of Kursk operations heavily inflated (13:27 UTC).
Ukrainian 156th Territorial Defense Brigade claims recent drone strikes destroying a Russian quad bike with soldier, a UAZ "Bukhanka" vehicle (with 2 occupants falling out), a car, and another soldier in the Kursk direction (13:42 UTC).
Video surfaced reportedly showing a burning Ukrainian Bgbv 90 Armoured Recovery Vehicle (ARV) in Sumy Oblast, claimed by Russian sources to have been previously hit by a fiber-optic drone near the Kursk border (13:03 UTC).
Russian sources claim a Geran-2 drone strike targeted a base point of the Ukrainian 80th Air Assault Brigade in Basy (Sumy suburb) (Prior Report).
Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar):
Russian sources claim Russian VDV forces (98th VDD) repelled a Ukrainian attack by the 24th Mechanized Brigade west of Chasiv Yar, alleging destruction of 1 tank and 5 armored vehicles (incl. M113, Kirpi) via mines and FPV drones (13:05 UTC).
Russian sources claim destruction of a Ukrainian tank near Predtechyne (SW of Chasiv Yar) by drone operators of the Russian 27th Artillery Regiment (13:43 UTC).
Russian sources report evacuation of civilians from Chasiv Yar by Russian VDV forces (331st PDP, 98th VDD), alleging Ukrainian attempts to interfere (14:15 UTC).
Pokrovsk / Novopavlivsk Directions:
Significant Russian Claim: Russian sources (RVvoenkor) claim units of the "Central" Group (90th Guards Tank Division) broke through Ukrainian lines after clearing Zaporizhzhia (likely referring to a small settlement, not the city), advanced several kilometers past Kotliarivka, and are engaged in taking Bohdanivka (near Kotliarivka, distinct from Bohdanivka near Chasiv Yar). Claim Russian forces reached beam SW of Kotliarivka, threatening semi-encirclement and nearing the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative border (14:17 UTC). (Note: Major claim requiring verification).
Russian sources claim Russian forces entered Razliv and fighting for the settlement has commenced (13:11 UTC).
Russian sources claim a bomber strike by the 11th Air Force/Air Defense Army ("Vostok" Group) hit Ukrainian positions in Komar (13:30 UTC).
Russian sources claim destruction of Ukrainian mortar crews in the Pokrovsk direction (14:10 UTC).
Kupyansk Direction:
Russian sources claim Russian forces have strengthened positions near Kupyansk (14:09 UTC). (Note: Previous RU claims from Mar 28 alleged advances into Mala Shapkovka, capture of Kondrashivka, and entry into Tyshchenkivka).
Ukrainian 77th Airmobile Brigade released footage claiming destruction of a Russian tank near Kupyansk via drone strike (Prior Report).
Zaporizhzhia Direction (Orikhiv Sector):
Russian sources claim successful FPV drone strike destroying a Ukrainian tank at its starting position near Novopavlivka (approx. 7 km from LBS, geolocated 47.580157, 35.714110) (14:09 UTC). Positional fighting reported.
Kherson Direction:
Russian sources (61st Naval Infantry Bde) claim successful use of FPV drones to destroy Ukrainian reconnaissance UAVs (types mentioned: Leleka-100, Darts, Furia, Heidrun, SHARK) (13:34 UTC, 14:22 UTC).
Ukrainian source (Butusov Plus) highlights Russian complaints about new Ukrainian drone tactics allegedly bypassing EW, attacking rear areas, and threatening positions near Nova Kakhovka. Acknowledges UA strikes on "peaceful" objects (likely RU framing) (14:18 UTC).
Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Territory/Infrastructure:
Russian MoD alleges continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure over the past 24 hours (13:35 UTC, 13:47 UTC).
Russian MoD claims a Ukrainian HIMARS strike "factually destroyed" the GISM "Sudzha" gas measuring station in Kursk Oblast (13:37 UTC).
Russian MoD details multiple alleged Ukrainian drone attacks on energy facilities in Belgorod Oblast on March 28, causing power outages affecting over 9,000 consumers. States attacks increased despite alleged statements by President Zelenskyy (13:39 UTC, 13:43 UTC).
Civilian Casualties & Damage:
Kryvyi Rih (Mar 29 Missile Strike): Updated figures report 8 civilians injured, 3 hospitalized. Damage confirmed to apartment buildings, a shop, a car wash, and dozens of vehicles. An aid station is operational (12:56 UTC).
Dnipro (Mar 28 Drone Strike): Updated figures report 24 civilians injured, 9 hospitalized. Significant damage to infrastructure, including the Bartolomeo restaurant complex. March 30 declared a day of mourning in Dnipro (13:52 UTC, 14:18 UTC).
Horlivka (Occupied Donetsk): Russian sources claim 5 civilians were wounded due to alleged Ukrainian shelling using cluster munitions, with a shell hitting a residential roof (13:46 UTC).
Technology & Tactics:
Russian:
Sources highlight specialized Russian chest rig designed to carry two TM-62 anti-tank mines, produced by "KB Cheglok" (13:00 UTC).
Continued heavy reliance on FPV drones for ISR and strikes (VDV, Naval Infantry, Artillery units cited).
Claims of new Geran-2 (Shahed) "swarm" tactics, grouping drones close to target at low altitude to overwhelm air defenses (Bild report via RU source, 14:04 UTC).
Ukrainian:
Continued use of drones for tactical strikes (Kursk equipment, soldiers, tank near Predtechyne, tank near Novopavlivka).
Alleged new drone tactics bypassing Russian EW reported near Nova Kakhovka (Kherson) (14:18 UTC).
Russian claims regarding Ukrainian use of new FP-1 plane-type kamikaze drones (60kg warhead, alleged decentralized production) persist from prior reports.
Emphasis on mining as a key defensive element reported near Toretsk (archival footage) (13:28 UTC).
II. Strategic Context & Assessments
Russian Strategy Assessment (Biletsky): The Commander of the Ukrainian 3rd Assault Corps, Andriy Biletsky, suggests Russia's primary strategy might currently be attrition ("thousand small cuts") across the entire front, aiming to physically and morally exhaust Ukrainian forces to force a collapse or capitulation, rather than seeking major operational breakthroughs (13:26 UTC, 14:16 UTC).
Kursk/Sumy Border: Russia appears committed to creating a "buffer zone," evidenced by claimed capture of Veselovka (Sumy) and Hoholivka (Kursk), and sustained pressure/strikes across a wide area.
Eastern Front: High intensity remains.
Pokrovsk/Novopavlivsk: Remains a primary Russian offensive axis. Significant but unverified Russian claims of a multi-kilometer breakthrough past Kotliarivka towards the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. Russian claims of entering Razliv persist.
Kramatorsk (Chasiv Yar): Continued intense fighting, Russian VDV pressure, and attempts to repel Ukrainian counter-attacks reported.
Lyman Direction: Assessed as critical, with Terny likely Russian-occupied (Prior reports/ISW).
Zaporizhzhia Front: Ukrainian forces received significant logistical support over the past week, including over 740 drones, EW equipment, power sources, remote mining means, and fuel (Zaporizhzhia OVA, 14:14 UTC). Indicates focus on bolstering defenses and capabilities in this sector.
Information Environment:
Energy Infrastructure Narrative: Russian sources continue highlighting alleged Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy facilities (Belgorod, Kursk - Sudzha GMS). Colonelcassad contrasts these claims with alleged statements by US VP Vance suggesting an "energy ceasefire" is already in effect (13:59 UTC).
Russian Claims: Focus on alleged territorial gains (Veselovka, Hoholivka, Kotliarivka/Bohdanivka area, Razliv), repelled Ukrainian attacks (Chasiv Yar), Ukrainian losses (Kursk, equipment), and alleged Ukrainian attacks on civilians (Horlivka). Propaganda film released about impact of UA actions in Kursk (Prior).
Ukrainian Claims/Narratives: Highlight Russian losses (Kursk equipment, tanks), successful defensive actions (Toretsk mining), effectiveness of own drones (Kursk, bypassing EW in Kherson), detail Russian atrocities/civilian targeting (Dnipro attack), and showcase international support and domestic resilience (Zaporizhzhia aid, UN visit).
International Dimension:
US Military Aid: US DoD awarded a $4.9 billion contract to Lockheed Martin for 1296 PrSM ballistic missiles (ATACMS replacement), including Increment 2 variant capable of hitting moving targets. Production rate target: 400/year. Estimated completion 2030 (14:00 UTC). Represents long-term US investment in precision strike capabilities potentially relevant to future aid packages.
European Coordination: Finnish President Stubb proposed appointing a dedicated European envoy for Ukraine coordination (13:39 UTC). Stubb later clarified that any deployment of troops from a "coalition of the willing" would only occur after a ceasefire and subsequent peace agreement (14:13 UTC).
Settlement Perspectives: Hungarian FM Szijjarto stated that agreements between Russia and the US are primary for a settlement in Ukraine, suggesting the EU would follow suit (14:19 UTC).
Economic Outlook: IMF report (Mar 28) baseline scenario assumes the war concludes by end-2025, while noting high risks and early stage of negotiations. IMF slightly downgraded Ukraine's 2025 growth forecast (13:48 UTC, 13:57 UTC).
Regional Dynamics: Head of Kharkiv OVA met with Latvian officials regarding security/humanitarian needs (13:15 UTC). Reports of US BREM sinking in Lithuanian swamp during exercises used in Russian IO (14:08 UTC).
III. Confirmed Recent Developments (Prior 1-3 Days)
Ground Advances (ISW Confirmed/Assessed - Maps Published Mar 29):
Ukrainian: Advance into eastern Popovka (Belgorod Oblast, RU).
Russian: Advances near Guyevo (Kursk Oblast, RU); near Terny (Lyman); near Tsentralna mine (Toretsk); north of Andriivka (Novopavlivsk); north of Zherebyanky (Zaporizhzhia West).
Significant Strikes (Confirmed):
Ukrainian HIMARS Strike: Eliminated Russian Major Marat Tibilov (Rosgvardia Spetsnaz HVT) near Cherkasske-Porechne (Kursk Oblast, Mar 26-27).
Ukrainian Air Strikes: Destroyed bridges in Grafovka and Nadezhivka (Belgorod Oblast, RU) (Confirmed Mar 27).
Russian Drone Strike (Dnipro, Mar 28): Confirmed deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure (restaurant, homes, residential buildings), resulting in 4 KIA, 19 WIA (Figures updated Mar 28 evening).
