Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 29, 2025, 13:56 UTC
I. Major Operational Updates (Recent Hours)
Air Activity & Threats (Ongoing):
Ukrainian Air Force reports ongoing activity of Russian tactical aviation on northeastern and southeastern axes, with a threat of air-launched weapons (13:46 UTC).
Confirmed launches of Russian KABs towards Sumy Oblast (13:47 UTC).
Earlier, high-speed target(s) detected entering via Sumy Oblast, moving towards Poltava Oblast (Approx. 13:19 - 13:23 UTC). Missile alerts were active.
Sumy/Kursk Border Operations:
Russian MoD officially confirmed capture of Veselovka (Sumy Oblast) by Russian "Sever" Group forces (13:27 UTC).
Russian MoD claims ongoing strikes against elements of Ukrainian Mechanized, Air Assault (x2), Presidential, and TDF brigades near Hornal, Guyevo, Oleshnia (Kursk Oblast, RU) and numerous settlements across Sumy Oblast (13:27 UTC).
Ukrainian 156th Territorial Defense Brigade claims drone strikes destroying a Russian quad bike with soldier, a UAZ "Bukhanka" vehicle (with 2 occupants falling out), a car, and another soldier in the Kursk direction (13:42 UTC).
Video surfaced reportedly showing a burning Ukrainian Bgbv 90 Armoured Recovery Vehicle (ARV) in Sumy Oblast, claimed by Russian sources to have been previously hit by a fiber-optic drone near the Kursk border (13:03 UTC).
Russian sources claim a Geran-2 drone strike targeted a base point of the Ukrainian 80th Air Assault Brigade in Basy (Sumy suburb) (Prior Report).
Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar):
Russian sources claim Russian VDV forces repelled a Ukrainian attack by the 24th Mechanized Brigade west of Chasiv Yar, alleging destruction of 1 tank and 5 armored vehicles (incl. M113, Kirpi) via mines and FPV drones (13:05 UTC).
Russian sources claim destruction of a Ukrainian tank near Predtechyne (SW of Chasiv Yar) by drone operators of the Russian 27th Artillery Regiment (13:43 UTC).
Novopavlivsk Direction:
Russian sources claim Russian forces entered Razliv and fighting for the settlement has commenced (13:11 UTC).
Russian sources claim a bomber strike by the 11th Air Force/Air Defense Army ("Vostok" Group) hit Ukrainian positions in Komar (13:30 UTC).
Kupyansk Direction:
Ukrainian 77th Airmobile Brigade released footage claiming destruction of a Russian tank near Kupyansk via drone strike (Prior Report).
Kherson Direction:
Russian sources (61st Naval Infantry Bde) claim successful use of FPV drones to destroy Ukrainian reconnaissance UAVs (types mentioned: Leleka-100, Darts, Furia, Heidrun) (13:34 UTC).
Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Territory/Infrastructure:
Russian MoD alleges continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure over the past 24 hours (13:35 UTC).
Russian MoD claims a Ukrainian HIMARS strike "factually destroyed" the GISM "Sudzha" gas measuring station in Kursk Oblast (13:37 UTC).
Russian MoD details multiple alleged Ukrainian drone attacks on energy facilities in Belgorod Oblast on March 28, causing power outages affecting over 9,000 consumers (13:39 UTC). States attacks increased despite statements by President Zelenskyy.
Civilian Casualties & Damage:
Kryvyi Rih (Mar 29 Missile Strike): Updated figures report 8 civilians injured, 3 hospitalized. Damage confirmed to apartment buildings, a shop, a car wash, and dozens of vehicles. An aid station is operational (12:56 UTC).
Dnipro (Mar 28 Drone Strike): Updated figures report 24 civilians injured, 9 hospitalized. Significant damage to infrastructure, including the Bartolomeo restaurant complex (12:56 UTC). March 30 declared a day of mourning in Dnipro (13:52 UTC).
Horlivka (Occupied Donetsk): Russian sources claim 5 civilians were wounded due to alleged Ukrainian shelling using cluster munitions, with a shell hitting a residential roof (13:46 UTC).
Technology & Tactics:
Russian sources highlight specialized Russian chest rig designed to carry two TM-62 anti-tank mines, produced by "KB Cheglok" (13:00 UTC).
Russian sources claim continued use of FPV drones to destroy Ukrainian communication antennas (13:02 UTC).
Ukrainian forces utilize drones for tactical strikes, including destruction of a Russian soldier on a motorcycle (13:18 UTC).
Russian claims regarding Ukrainian use of new FP-1 plane-type kamikaze drones (60kg warhead, alleged decentralized production) persist from prior reports.
II. Strategic Context & Assessments
Russian Strategy Assessment (Biletsky): The Commander of the Ukrainian 3rd Assault Corps, Andriy Biletsky, suggests Russia's primary strategy might currently be attrition ("thousand small cuts") across the entire front, aiming to physically and morally exhaust Ukrainian forces to force a collapse or capitulation, rather than seeking major operational breakthroughs (13:26 UTC).
Kursk/Sumy Border: Russia appears committed to creating a "buffer zone," evidenced by the capture of Veselovka and claimed pressure on surrounding areas (Basovka, Yunakivka hub potential targets). Intensive artillery, air, and drone strikes continue.
Eastern Front: High intensity remains, particularly near Chasiv Yar (Kramatorsk direction) and Razliv (Novopavlivsk direction), where Russian forces claim advances or entry into settlements. Pokrovsk direction remains a major Russian focus based on prior reports. Lyman direction assessed as critical, with Terny likely Russian-occupied (Prior reports/ISW).
Information Environment:
Controversy surrounding alleged "military lawyers" aiding draft evasion in Kyiv continues, framed by Ukrainian sources as a Russian-beneficial provocation (Pavlenko added to Myrotvorets database) (13:22 UTC).
Russian sources promote narratives of Ukrainian attacks on civilians (Horlivka claim) and energy infrastructure, alleged Ukrainian equipment losses (Bgbv 90 ARV), and repelled Ukrainian attacks (Chasiv Yar).
Ukrainian sources highlight Russian losses (motorcycle soldier, Kursk equipment), alleged internal Russian dissent (GUR intercept), and maintain focus on defense and international support.
Russian sources highlight figures like Yevgeny Skripnik ("Prapor") involved in supporting operations in Donbas (13:22 UTC).
International Dimension:
Head of Kharkiv OVA, Oleh Syniehubov, met with Latvian National Armed Forces and Embassy representatives to discuss security cooperation and humanitarian needs, emphasizing critical infrastructure protection. Noted nearly 22,000 Russian strikes on Kharkiv Oblast since Feb 2022, damaging/destroying over 77,600 objects (13:15 UTC).
Finnish President Stubb proposed the appointment of a dedicated European envoy for coordinating efforts related to Ukraine (13:39 UTC).
IMF report (Mar 28) referenced, with Ukrainian sources noting its underlying economic models assume the war concludes by the end of 2025 (13:48 UTC).
Analysis comparing Russian vs. European NATO military strength (personnel, tanks, fighters, artillery) circulated, noting NATO's paper advantage but highlighting Turkey's significant contribution and the potential impact of its non-participation (13:44 UTC).
III. Confirmed Recent Developments (Prior 1-3 Days)
Ground Advances (ISW Confirmed/Assessed - Maps Published Mar 29):
Ukrainian: Advance into eastern Popovka (Belgorod Oblast, RU).
Russian: Advances near Guyevo (Kursk Oblast, RU); near Terny (Lyman); near Tsentralna mine (Toretsk); north of Andriivka (Novopavlivsk); north of Zherebyanky (Zaporizhzhia West).
Significant Strikes (Confirmed):
Ukrainian HIMARS Strike: Eliminated Russian Major Marat Tibilov (Kursk Oblast, Mar 26-27).
Ukrainian Air Strikes: Destroyed bridges in Grafovka and Nadezhivka (Belgorod Oblast, RU) (Confirmed Mar 27).
Russian Drone Strike (Dnipro, Mar 28): Confirmed deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure (restaurant, homes, residential buildings), resulting in 4 KIA, 19 WIA (final figures).
