Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 29, 2025, 13:26 UTC
I. Major Updates (Since 12:56 UTC Report)
Air Activity (Ongoing Threats):
Ukrainian Air Force reported high-speed target(s) entering via Sumy Oblast, moving towards Poltava Oblast (approx. 13:19 - 13:23 UTC).
A subsequent missile alert was issued (approx. 13:22 UTC).
Earlier, KABs were launched towards Sumy Oblast (approx. 12:28 UTC), Kharkiv Oblast (from East), and North Donetsk Oblast (approx. 12:33 UTC). A missile threat alert was active for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (approx. 12:31 - 12:36 UTC). All previous alerts concluded by 12:36 UTC.
Sumy/Kursk Border:
Russian MoD officially confirmed capture of Veselovka (Sumy Oblast). Russian sources analyze this as part of creating a buffer zone, potentially targeting Basovka and the Yunakivka logistics hub.
Russian MoD claims strikes against elements of UA Mechanized, 2x Air Assault, Presidential, and TDF brigades near Hornal, Huyevo, Oleshnia (Kursk Oblast, RU) and numerous settlements across Sumy Oblast. Claimed daily UA losses (Mar 28-29) in Kursk direction: >190 personnel, 2 IFVs, 1 BBM, 8 vehicles, 1 arty, 3 mortars, 6 UAV CPs, 1 ammo depot. (Note: Cumulative loss claims require independent verification).
Russian sources claim Geran-2 strike on UA 80th Air Assault Brigade base point in Basy (Sumy suburb).
Russian source (Colonelcassad) shared video purportedly showing a burning Ukrainian Bgbv 90 Armoured Recovery Vehicle (ARV) in Sumy Oblast, previously claimed hit by fiber-optic drone near Kursk border.
Russian sources report a civilian man severely injured by a mine between Borki and Plekhovo (Kursk Oblast, RU).
Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar):
Russian sources (RVvoenkor) claim repelling a Ukrainian attack by the 24th Mechanized Brigade west of Chasiv Yar. Claim destruction of 1 tank and 5 armored vehicles (incl. M113, Kirpi) via mines and FPV drones operated by Russian VDV.
Kupyansk Direction:
Ukrainian 77th Airmobile Brigade released footage claiming destruction of a Russian tank near Kupyansk via drone strike.
Novopavlivsk Direction:
Russian sources (Colonelcassad) claim Russian forces entered Razliv and fighting for the settlement has begun.
Dnipro/Kryvyi Rih Strike Aftermath:
Updated casualty figures (Dnipropetrovsk OVA):
Kryvyi Rih (Mar 29 missile strike): 8 civilians injured (3 remain hospitalized). Aid station established, providing building materials. Damage confirmed to apartment buildings, shop, car wash, dozens of vehicles.
Dnipro (Mar 28 night drone strike): 24 civilians injured (9 remain hospitalized). Images show significant damage to Bartolomeo restaurant complex.
Technology & Equipment:
Russian sources (WarGonzo) claim Ukraine employs new FP-1 plane-type kamikaze drones (foam/film wings, German 3W 30hp engine, 60kg warhead, decentralized production of hundreds/month). Claim debris found in Saratov/Moscow regions after Jan/Mar attacks.
Ukrainian source (Sternenko) highlights Russian specialized chest rig designed to carry two TM-62 anti-tank mines, produced by "KB Cheglok".
Ukrainian source (Operatyvno ZSU) shared video showing destruction of a Russian soldier on a motorcycle via drone strike.
Information Operations / Morale:
Ukrainian source (Butusov Plus) released video purportedly showing a Russian soldier commenting on heavy losses, destroyed equipment, constant need for shelter, and disconnect between frontline reality and perceptions within Russia.
Ukrainian media highlighted interview with Col. Andriy Biletsky discussing the formation and rationale of the 3rd Army Corps (based on 3rd Assault Brigade).
Russian sources (Dnevnik Desantnika) published story of wounded RU soldier allegedly hidden from Ukrainian forces by local civilians near Novyi Komar for two weeks in December/January.
Controversy surrounding "military lawyers" allegedly helping draft evasion in Kyiv continues. Ukrainian sources (Operatyvno ZSU, Shtirlitz) report lawyer Victoria Pavlenko added to Myrotvorets database, framing actions as provocations benefiting Russian propaganda. Question raised about funding/beneficiaries. Russian sources (Dva Mayora) shared video allegedly showing draft evasion attempts at the border, framing it as failure of "European Ukraine" narrative.
Ukrainian GUR released alleged intercept of Bryansk resident expressing frustration that Moscow isn't hit harder, desiring Muscovites to feel fear (RBC-Ukraine).
International Cooperation (Kharkiv):
Head of Kharkiv OVA, Oleh Syniehubov, met with representatives of Latvian National Armed Forces and Embassy to discuss security cooperation and humanitarian challenges. Highlighted need for improved critical infrastructure protection. Noted almost 22,000 Russian strikes on Kharkiv Oblast since Feb 2022, damaging/destroying over 77,600 objects.
II. Consolidated Situation Assessment (As of 13:26 UTC)
A. Overall Situation
High operational tempo persists, notably on the Sumy/Kursk border and eastern fronts (Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, Novopavlivsk). Russia maintains offensive pressure, achieving confirmed tactical gains (Veselovka) and pushing into new settlements (Razliv). The stated aim of creating a buffer zone in Sumy Oblast is being actively pursued. Russian forces continue heavy air/missile/drone strikes across Ukraine, causing further civilian casualties and infrastructure damage (Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro). Ukrainian forces maintain defensive postures, conduct counter-attacks (Chasiv Yar - repelled, Kupyansk - tank kill), and utilize drone warfare extensively for both tactical strikes and potentially strategic effect (FP-1 claims). Technological adaptation is evident on both sides (new drones, specialized gear). Internal Ukrainian issues related to mobilization and alleged draft evasion schemes are being exploited in the information space.
B. Ground Operations by Axis
Eastern Front (Donetsk & Luhansk Oblasts):
Pokrovsk Direction: Remains primary Russian focus with continuous infantry assaults.
Kramatorsk Direction (inc. Bakhmut, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar): Intense fighting.
Chasiv Yar: Russian sources claim repelling a Ukrainian armored attack (24th Mech Bde) west of the city, inflicting losses (1 tank, 5 BBM). UA 5th Assault Brigade continues reporting successful FPV drone strikes on RU positions.
Kupyansk-Lyman Direction: Positional fighting and RU attempts to advance. Ukrainian 77th Airmobile Brigade reports destroying RU tank near Kupyansk. RU claims advances near Orlyanske (Mar 27) and Terny occupation (Mar 27) require continued monitoring.
Novopavlivsk/Vremivka Directions: Continued Russian attacks. Russian sources claim entry into Razliv (Mar 29) and fighting underway. Previous RU claims (Mar 27/28) of advances near Vilne Pole, Burlatske, Vesele, Komar, Otradne, Bohatyr, Razliv require verification. Story emerges of RU soldier hidden by civilians near Novyi Komar.
Southern Front (Zaporizhzhia & Kherson Oblasts):
Orikhiv/Huliaipole Direction: Fighting ongoing. RU MoD claimed capture of Malye Shcherbaky (Mar 28). Russian crowdfunding efforts continue (UAZ vehicles, anti-thermal gear, medkits delivered Mar 29).
Kherson Direction (Left Bank): Primarily positional engagements reported. Ukrainian drone operations interdicting RU river crossing attempts continue. Nikopol district (Right Bank) remains under RU artillery/drone fire. Humanitarian concerns highlighted by video showing water queues in occupied Tavriisk.
Northern Front & Border Regions:
Sumy/Kursk Border: Volatile situation with confirmed RU capture of Veselovka (Sumy Oblast). RU MoD claims ongoing assaults on Basovka and Vladimirovka, targeting multiple UA brigades and inflicting daily losses. RU sources indicate intent to expand buffer zone towards Yunakivka. RU claims Geran-2 strike on 80th DShB base point in Basy. Video surfaces of destroyed UA Bgbv 90 ARV in Sumy Oblast. Civilian mine injury reported on RU side (Kursk Oblast). Ukrainian forces conduct cross-border drone strikes (RU antenna destruction claimed). High-speed aerial target detected moving from Sumy towards Poltava Oblast.
Kharkiv/Belgorod Border: High operational tempo. Russian MoD claims destruction of a Ukrainian quad bike via drone strike. Ukrainian unit "Pryvid Hortytsi" reports drone operations targeting RU soldiers near Kharkiv. Kharkiv OVA meets with Latvian partners on security/humanitarian issues, noting significant damage from ~22k RU strikes since Feb 2022. Persistent KAB threat.
C. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Russian Strikes:
Continued use of Shahed/Geran UAVs (e.g., Dnipro night Mar 28/29; Basy claim Mar 29).
Ballistic/Cruise missile threat demonstrated (Kryvyi Rih Mar 29; High-speed target towards Poltava Mar 29).
Persistent use of tactical aviation deploying KABs against frontline positions and border regions (Sumy, Kharkiv, North Donetsk Oblast launches/warnings Mar 29).
RU MoD claims widespread strikes targeting personnel/equipment concentrations. Specific claims include Geran-2 strikes in Sumy Oblast (troop location, 80th DShBr base).
Reported claims of Ukraine employing new FP-1 long-range kamikaze drones (plane-type, 60kg warhead) against targets deep within Russia (WarGonzo claim).
Extensive use of FPV drones for tactical strikes against RU personnel, equipment, and positions across multiple fronts (Kursk Oblast, Kupyansk, Kramatorsk, Pokrovsk, Sumy border). Specific claims include UA 77th Airmobile tank kill (Kupyansk), RU motorcycle kill. RU sources claim UA FPVs used in failed Chasiv Yar attack.
Successful HIMARS strike eliminating RU Major Tibilov (Kursk Oblast, Mar 26-27) previously confirmed.
Mediterranean Sea: 3 carriers (up to 26 missiles).
E. Logistics & Technology
Claims emerge regarding Ukrainian deployment of new FP-1 long-range kamikaze drones with significant payload and alleged decentralized production.
Russian reliance on crowdfunding for certain supplies continues (e.g., UAZ vehicles, anti-thermal blankets, medkits delivered to units in Zaporizhzhia).
Images surface of Russian specialized chest rigs for carrying TM-62 anti-tank mines, suggesting focus on mine warfare.
High FPV drone expenditure noted on both sides. Claims of RU destroying UA antennas with drones.
F. Information Environment & Diplomacy
Ukrainian media highlighted Col. Biletsky's interview on the formation and strategic importance of the 3rd Army Corps structure.
Russian information operations continue, including narratives about alleged draft evasion issues in Ukraine (border escape video, Kyiv "military lawyer" service), amplifying civilian impact on RU side (mine injury), framing Veselovka capture strategically, and potentially using soldier testimony (RU soldier hidden by civilians).
Ukrainian information operations include highlighting RU losses/conditions (Butusov video), promoting successful strikes (77th Bde tank kill), showcasing training (DShV cadets), and disseminating alleged intercepts showing internal Russian discontent (GUR/Bryansk resident). Controversy surrounding "military lawyers" framed as Russian-beneficial provocation.
Kharkiv OVA publicizes meeting with Latvian partners, emphasizing ongoing international support and security needs.
G. Civilian Impact
Updated casualty figures from recent strikes:
Kryvyi Rih (Mar 29 Missile): 8 civilians injured (3 hospitalized). Significant damage to residential buildings, shop, car wash, dozens of vehicles. Aid station established.
Dnipro (Mar 28 Drone): 24 civilians injured (9 hospitalized). Extensive damage to Bartolomeo complex shown in videos.
Ongoing power outages reported, especially in Kharkiv Oblast.
Continued Russian shelling/drone attacks on frontline communities (e.g., Nikopol district).
Russian sources report civilian mine injury in Kursk Oblast near the border.
Humanitarian situation in occupied areas highlighted (water queue in Tavriisk).
Kharkiv OVA notes >77,600 objects damaged/destroyed in the region since Feb 2022.
