Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 29, 2025, 12:56 UTC
I. Major Updates (Since 12:26 UTC Report)
Sumy/Kursk Border:
Russian MoD officially confirms capture of Veselovka (Sumy Oblast) by "Sever" Group forces during offensive actions. Video previously released by RU sources purported to show flag raised.
Russian MoD claims daily losses (Mar 28-29) for Ukrainian forces in Kursk direction: >190 personnel, 2 IFVs, 1 BBM, 8 vehicles, 1 artillery piece, 3 mortars, 6 UAV control points, 1 ammunition depot. Claims strikes targeted elements of UA Mechanized, 2x Air Assault, Presidential, and TDF brigades near Hornal, Huyevo, Oleshnia (Kursk Oblast, RU) and numerous settlements across Sumy Oblast. (Note: RU MoD also released cumulative loss claims for the entire Kursk direction operation since its inception, figures require independent verification).
Russian sources (Kotsnews, Poddubny) analyze Veselovka capture as part of an effort to expand a buffer zone on Ukrainian territory, potentially pushing towards Basovka and the Yunakivka logistics hub.
Russian sources (RVvoenkor) claim Geran-2 drone strike targeted the base point of the Ukrainian 80th Air Assault Brigade in Basy (Sumy suburb).
Russian sources report a civilian man was severely injured by a mine between Borki and Plekhovo (Kursk Oblast, RU).
Kupyansk Direction:
Ukrainian 77th Airmobile Brigade released footage claiming destruction of a Russian tank near Kupyansk via drone strike.
Dnipro/Kryvyi Rih Strike Aftermath:
Updated casualty figures (Dnipropetrovsk OVA):
Kryvyi Rih (Mar 29 missile strike): 8 civilians injured (3 remain hospitalized). Damage confirmed to apartment buildings, shop, car wash, dozens of vehicles. Aid station established.
Ukrainian Air Force reported Russian tactical aviation activity on the NE border (approx. 12:28 UTC), launching KABs towards Sumy Oblast.
Missile threat alert was active for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (approx. 12:31 - 12:36 UTC).
Ukrainian Air Force reported KAB launches towards Kharkiv Oblast (from East) and North Donetsk Oblast (approx. 12:33 - 12:36 UTC).
Previous alerts (recon UAVs Sumy/Kharkiv; air alert Zaporizhzhia) ended earlier.
Technology & Capabilities:
Russian sources (WarGonzo) claim Ukraine is employing new long-range FP-1 plane-type kamikaze drones, alleging simplified construction (foam/film wings), German 3W engines (30hp), 60kg warheads, and decentralized production (hundreds/month). Claim debris found in Saratov/Moscow regions after Jan/Mar attacks.
Information Operations / Morale:
Ukrainian source (Butusov Plus) released video purportedly showing a Russian soldier commenting on heavy losses, destroyed equipment, constant need for shelter, and disconnect between frontline reality and perceptions within Russia.
Ukrainian media highlighted interview with Col. Andriy Biletsky discussing the formation and rationale of the 3rd Army Corps (based on 3rd Assault Brigade), focusing on structure, recruitment, and role of NCOs.
II. Consolidated Situation Assessment (As of 12:56 UTC)
A. Overall Situation
The operational tempo remains high, particularly along the Sumy/Kursk border and eastern fronts. Russian forces maintain offensive pressure, achieving confirmed incremental gains (Veselovka) in the border region, while stating intent to establish a buffer zone. Ukrainian forces continue defensive operations, counter-attacks (e.g., Kupyansk), and drone strikes (e.g., Kursk Oblast). Russian air/missile strikes persist, resulting in further civilian casualties in rear areas (Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih). Both sides continue to adapt technologically, with claims of new Ukrainian long-range drone deployment.
B. Ground Operations by Axis
Eastern Front (Donetsk & Luhansk Oblasts):
Pokrovsk Direction: Remains primary Russian focus with continuous infantry assaults.
Kramatorsk Direction (inc. Bakhmut, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar): Intense fighting.
Chasiv Yar: Russian claims of repelling UA armored attack near center persist. UA 5th Assault Brigade continues reporting successful FPV drone strikes on RU positions/personnel within canal infrastructure.
Kupyansk-Lyman Direction: Positional fighting and RU attempts to advance. Ukrainian 77th Airmobile Brigade reports destroying RU tank near Kupyansk. Earlier RU claims (Mar 28) of advances near Dvurichanskyi bridgehead need verification.
Siversk Direction: Persistent Russian attacks repelled near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, Ivano-Darivka.
Novopavlivsk/Vremivka Directions: Continued Russian attacks reported.
Southern Front (Zaporizhzhia & Kherson Oblasts):
Orikhiv/Huliaipole Direction: Fighting ongoing near Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove, Lobkove following RU MoD claim of capturing Shcherbaky. Russian crowdfunding efforts continue to supply forces in this area (e.g., UAZ vehicles, anti-thermal gear delivered).
Kherson Direction (Left Bank): Primarily positional engagements reported. Ukrainian drone operations interdicting RU river crossing attempts continue. Nikopol district (Right Bank) remains under RU artillery/drone fire.
Northern Front & Border Regions:
Sumy/Kursk Border: Volatile situation with confirmed RU capture of Veselovka (Sumy Oblast). Russian MoD claims ongoing assaults on Basovka and Vladimirovka. RU sources indicate intent to expand buffer zone towards Yunakivka. RU MoD claims inflicting significant daily losses on UA forces operating in the Kursk direction and striking numerous targets in Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian forces conduct cross-border drone strikes (129th TDF reported hits in Kursk Oblast earlier). Civilian mine injury reported on RU side (Kursk Oblast).
Kharkiv/Belgorod Border: High operational tempo. Russian MoD claims destruction of a Ukrainian quad bike in Kharkiv Oblast via drone strike. Ukrainian unit "Pryvid Hortytsi" reports drone operations targeting RU soldiers near Kharkiv.
C. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Russian Strikes:
Continued use of Shahed UAVs (e.g., Dnipro night Mar 28/29; Basy claim Mar 29).
Ballistic missile threat demonstrated (Kryvyi Rih Mar 29).
Persistent use of tactical aviation deploying KABs against frontline positions and border regions (Sumy, Kharkiv, North Donetsk Oblast warnings Mar 29).
RU MoD claims widespread strikes targeting personnel/equipment concentrations. Specific claims include Geran-2 strikes in Sumy Oblast (troop location, alleged command/engineering bases, 80th DShBr base) and Dnipro (alleged HQ/CP). Missile threat alert activated for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Mar 29).
Reported claims of Ukraine employing new FP-1 long-range kamikaze drones (plane-type, 60kg warhead) against targets deep within Russia (WarGonzo claim).
Extensive use of FPV drones for tactical strikes against RU personnel, equipment, and positions across multiple fronts (Kursk Oblast, Kupyansk, Kramatorsk, Pokrovsk).
Successful HIMARS strike eliminating RU Major Tibilov (Kursk Oblast, Mar 26-27) previously confirmed.
Mediterranean Sea: 3 carriers (up to 26 missiles).
E. Logistics & Technology
Claims emerge regarding Ukrainian deployment of new FP-1 long-range kamikaze drones with significant payload and alleged decentralized production.
Russian reliance on crowdfunding for certain supplies continues (e.g., UAZ vehicles, anti-thermal blankets, medkits delivered to units in Zaporizhzhia).
High FPV drone expenditure noted on both sides.
F. Information Environment & Diplomacy
Ukrainian media highlighted Col. Biletsky's interview on the formation and strategic importance of the 3rd Army Corps structure.
Russian information operations continue, including narratives about staged Ukrainian photoshoots, illegal border crossings, civilian targeting by UA drones near Sudzha (Kursk Oblast), and alleged differing terms in potential energy ceasefires.
Ukrainian sources released video purportedly showing Russian soldier's perspective contradicting official narratives about conditions and losses.
