Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 29, 2025, 11:26 UTC
I. Air, Missile, Drone, and Naval Activity
Massive Overnight Russian Strikes (Night Mar 28/29):
Scale: Over 170 assets launched (including >100 Shahed-type UAVs).
Interceptions (UA Claims): UA AF confirmed 94 Shahed/other UAVs downed. SDF downed 4 Shaheds. KMVA reported 16 UAVs destroyed near Kyiv. Mobile fire groups (DPSU) downed 2 Geran/Shahed + 1 Shahed in Sumy Oblast.
Impacted Regions (Confirmed): Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi Oblasts.
Dnipro City Impacts: 4 civilians KIA, 22 WIA (13 hospitalized, 3 critical). Extensive damage to civilian infrastructure (hotel, homes, administrative buildings, vehicles). RU disinformation claims military targets hit.
Okhtyrka District (Sumy): Drone destroyed recreation base; no casualties.
Kharkiv Oblast: Damage from Shaheds/shelling/MLRS/drones; power outages (>7400 subscribers); 1 civilian WIA (Liutivka). MLRS strike on Borova: 1 civilian (75yo) WIA, house damaged, fire.
Kyiv Oblast: No casualties/destruction within Kyiv city limits reported.
Ballistic Missile Strike (Kryvyi Rih, Mar 29 Morning / Aftermath):
Explosion confirmed ~09:30 UTC after warning. Ballistic missile attack confirmed (Vilkul).
Impact: Between residential buildings.
Damage: Multi-story buildings, private houses, school, car wash, infrastructure object, >20 vehicles damaged. Fire confirmed. (Photos/Video provided).
Aid station established at local school. War crime investigation launched (Art. 438). RU sources speculate Iskander missile used.
Ongoing Air Threats & Activity:
Tactical Aviation (KABs): Continued launches towards Sumy Oblast, Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia border area. High activity on Eastern/Southeastern axes.
UAV Activity: Enemy recon UAV reported over Dnipro (AD active 08:38 UTC), near Kursk border (09:02 UTC), over Cherkasy Oblast towards Kaniv (10:18 UTC), and on Cherkasy/Poltava border (10:45 UTC).
Helicopter Activity (RU Claim): Russian helicopters reported operating against UA positions on Zaporizhzhia front (Zloy Desantnik via Dva Mayora).
New Russian Drone Tactics (Reported): Shahed UAVs reportedly gathering at altitude before simultaneous dives (swarm tactics). Ukrainian forces developing countermeasures (Bild/Tsaplienko).
RU MoD: Claims strikes on airfield infra, UAV workshop/storage/CPs, ammo depots, manpower/hardware in 148 areas. Claims interception of 1 JDAM, 1 HIMARS, 73 UA UAVs.
Specific Russian Claims (Unverified unless stated):
Nikopol: FPV strike on SBU/Police building.
Luhansk City (Mar 28 night): Warehouse fire from intercepted UA UAV debris.
GIS Sudzha (Kursk): HIMARS destroyed Gas Measuring Station.
Kherson Oblast: UA shelling destroyed solar stations.
Panteleimonivka (Donetsk): UA PVD/infantry destroyed by guided arty (Visual Claim).
Horlivka (Mar 29): 3 civilians WIA from alleged UA shelling (NATO cluster munitions claimed) originating from Katerynivka (NW of Toretsk) (Poddubny).
Ukrainian Counter-Strikes & Air Defense (Past 24hrs - UGS/Other Sources):
General (UGS): Hits reported on 9 RU concentration areas, 1 AD system, 1 C2 point, 2 artillery systems, 2 other targets.
Drone Effectiveness: UA Naiev claims 70% RU losses from drones; Combined UA forces claim repelling large RU assault (Donetsk Front), inflicting losses (59 pers, 5 veh, 71 drones neutralized by EW); Successful FPV strikes by 3rd Assault, 63rd Brigades, 77th Airmobile (Kupyansk direction tank), SSO "Sokil" (downed Lancet), 60th Mech Bde Recon (Lyman direction infantry).
Air Strike (UA CLAIM): On RU command post in occupied Velyka Novosilka.
RU Night FPV Strike Claim (Pokrovsk Direction): "SSO Vizantiya" claim strike on UA infantry group (3 pers), 2 WIA (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Partisan Activity: Mariupol Resistance claims successful arson attack on RU military base/parking area (Mar 23), destroying vehicles/ammo (UA CLAIM).
Naval Activity & Developments:
Threat Assessment (UGS): Black Sea: 2 Kalibr carriers (up to 8 missiles); Med Sea: 3 carriers (26 missiles). Azov Sea: No RU assets reported.
Swedish Torpedo Development: Successful test launch of Torpedo 47 (Tp 47) from CB90 assault craft reported (Mar 28). Saab also demonstrated launch capability from Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs/MBEKs). (Specs: ~340kg, 35kts, ~20km range). Potential implications for Black Sea Ops given UA use of CB90s (>30 transferred) and USVs. (RU Source: Rybar, Video/Photos).
NATO ISR Activity: NATO SIGINT aircraft observed over Romania, focusing on Transnistria/western Black Sea (Mar 29, 08:04 UTC).
II. Ground Combat Operations & Border Areas
Overall Intensity:183 combat clashes recorded (Past 24h - UGS 06:00). High intensity continues.
Russian Offensive Preparations: Previous intelligence indicated potential RU preparations for offensives towards Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia.
Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy Border Operations:
RU CLAIM (MoD/Basurin): Full control established over Veselovka, Sumy Oblast. Flag raised (Video/Photo). Claimed necessary for border security. RU forces engaged UA units near Krasnopolye, Ugroyedy, Prokhody, Miropolskoye (Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts), claiming 185 UA casualties, equipment losses.
RU CLAIM (RVvoenkor): RU forces clearing UA elements near Popovka, Belgorod Oblast, supported by drone strikes.
RU CLAIM (Colonelcassad): Destroyed UA MaxxPro and Kozak AFVs near Russkoye Porechnoye (Kursk/Sumy border). MaxxPro allegedly captured.
UA Actions/Claims: Previous reports indicated UA advance 3-4km into Belgorod (Popovka area). Kursk operations ongoing; 14 RU assaults repelled (UGS, Mar 29 06:00). 5 RU POWs captured (UA DShV claim). Mobile fire groups (DPSU) destroyed ~5 FPV drones in Sumy Oblast.
Kharkiv Direction (OTU Kharkiv Report - 09:00 UTC):
Situation complex but stable.
Past 24h: RU conducted 1 air strike (2 KABs), used 149 kamikaze drones, 675 shellings.
4 RU attempts to break defenses near Vovchansk and towards Kamianka repelled.
