Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 29, 2025, 09:26 UTC
I. Air, Missile, Drone, and Naval Activity
Massive Overnight Russian Strikes (Night Mar 28/29 - UA Sources/Zelenskyy):
Scale: Over 170 assets launched, including over 100 Shahed-type UAVs and potentially imitator drones.
Interceptions:94 Shahed/other UAVs confirmed shot down by Ukrainian Air Force (UA AF). Southern Defense Forces (SDF) confirmed downing 4 Shaheds. Kyiv Military Administration (KMVA) reported 16 UAVs destroyed out of 30 detected near Kyiv airspace.
Damage (Confirmed): Extensive damage to hotel-restaurant complex ("Bartolomeo"), private homes (4 destroyed, 10+ damaged), multi-story buildings, educational/administrative buildings, warehouses, vehicles (incl. 2 SES vehicles), garages, service stations (Zelenskyy/Lysak/DSNS/RU Sources showing aftermath).
RU Claims: Target alleged mercenary/SBU/GUR hub; claim destruction/sinking of UA military vessel on Dnipro river nearby (RU CLAIM / Disinformation).
Okhtyrka District (Sumy): Drone attack destroyed a recreation base; no casualties reported (RBC-Ukraine).
Kharkiv Oblast: Impacts from Shaheds, shelling, MLRS, drone drops causing fires, damage to residential/commercial buildings, infrastructure, vehicles. Power outages affecting >7400 subscribers (Syniehubov/OVA). 1 civilian WIA near Liutivka. New: MLRS strike on Borova, fire (100 sqm), private house damaged, 1 civilian (75yo) WIA (Syniehubov).
Kyiv Oblast: No casualties or destruction reported within Kyiv city limits despite drone interceptions (KMVA).
Ongoing Air Threats:
Ballistic Missile Threat (09:24 UTC): Warning issued for potential ballistic missile use from the SE direction. Air raid alert active across Zaporizhzhia Oblast (UA Air Force/Zaporizhzhia OVA).
Tactical Aviation (Sumy, Eastern/Southeastern Axes): Russian aircraft continue launching Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) towards Sumy Oblast (as of 06:58 UTC). Increased activity persists on Eastern/Southeastern axes (UA Air Force). Morning UMPK strikes reported in Sumy Oblast (UGS/RU Sources).
UAV Activity: Enemy UAV reported over Dnipro city with Air Defence active (UA Air Force, 08:38 UTC).
New Russian Drone Tactics (Reported): Russian forces reportedly employing new swarm tactics for Shahed UAVs, gathering drones near the target area at altitude (2-3km) before simultaneous dives to overwhelm air defenses. Ukrainian forces are developing countermeasures (Bild/Tsaplienko/Operatsiya Z).
Specific Russian Claims (Past 24hrs / Unverified):
Nikopol (Dnipropetrovsk): Morning FPV drone strike claimed on SBU/Police building, alleging casualties and data destruction (RU CLAIM - Dnevnik Desantnika/Basurin).
Luhansk City (Mar 28 night): Warehouse fire claimed caused by debris from intercepted UA UAVs (RU CLAIM).
NATO ISR Activity (Black Sea/Romania): NATO Bombardier Challenger 650 Artemis SIGINT aircraft observed conducting surveillance over Romania, focusing on Transnistria and the western Black Sea (RU Sources, 08:04 UTC).
Naval Missile Threat Assessment (UGS 06:00 UTC):
Black Sea: 2 Kalibr carriers (up to 8 missiles).
Mediterranean Sea: 3 Kalibr carriers (up to 26 missiles).
Azov Sea: No Russian naval assets reported.
Ukrainian Counter-Strikes & Air Defense (Past 24hrs - UGS/Other Sources):
General (UGS): Hits reported on 9 RU concentration areas, 1 AD system, 1 C2 point, 2 artillery systems, 2 other targets.
Donetsk Front Repulsion (UA CLAIM): Combined UA forces (72nd Mech, 59th Motorized, 35th Marines, 414th Drone Bde) claim repelling large RU assault, inflicting losses: 59 personnel (26 KIA), 5 vehicles, 71 drones neutralized by EW (Operatyvnyi ZSU).
FPV Drone Strikes: Successful FPV drone attacks reported on RU personnel attempting vehicle recovery (Operatyvnyi ZSU video), and on RU positions, equipment (tank, cannon), and personnel in Kharkiv Oblast by 3rd Assault Brigade ("Primus" unit) (Butusov Plus video).
Belgorod Oblast Interceptions (RU CLAIM): 3 Ukrainian UAVs claimed shot down overnight (Voenkor Kotenok).
Ukrainian Partisan Activity:
Mariupol (Occupied): Ukrainian partisans ("Mariupol Resistance") claim successful arson attack on a Russian military base/parking area on Mar 23, destroying vehicles and ammunition. Location allegedly revealed via social media posts by Russian personnel (RBC-Ukraine - UA CLAIM).
II. Ground Combat Operations & Border Areas
Overall Intensity:183 combat clashes recorded across the front line in the past 24 hours (UGS 06:00 UTC).
Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy Border Operations:
Ukrainian Claims/Actions:
Advance into Belgorod Oblast: Ukrainian forces reportedly advanced 3-4 km into Belgorod Oblast, breaching the first Russian defense line. Operation assessed as aimed at diverting Russian forces from Kursk Oblast (Reuters/Tsaplienko/Black Bird Group - UA CLAIM/ASSESSMENT).
Kursk Operations: Operations continue. 14 Russian assaults repelled in the past 24 hours (UGS). 5 Russian POWs captured (UA DShV Claim/Visual).
Russian Claims/Actions:
Kursk: Claims situation largely static near Oleshnia, UA digging in. Gogolevka confirmed captured by RU forces (WarGonzo/RU MoD/Rybar). Advancing towards Oleshnia; fighting previously claimed ongoing in Huyevo, claim to be "grinding down" UA forces there (WarGonzo/TASS). New:Huyevo claimed liberated by RU 810th Marines (Alex Parker Returns - RU CLAIM / Needs Verification). Cherkasske Porechne claimed captured (Colonelcassad - Visual Claim). RU objective remains pushing UA forces from Oleshnia, Hornal, Huyevo (Alex Parker Returns). DeepState map update indicates Russian advance in Kursk region. Pogrebki: Civilian body found, UA forces blamed (SK RF/Poddubny - RU CLAIM / WAR CRIMES ALLEGATION). Russian forces conducted 28 air strikes (44 KABs) and 371 shelling attacks (16 MLRS) against the Kursk area (UGS). RU drone reconnaissance identifying UA positions for targeting (ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZA).
Sumy Border:Veselovka (Sumy Oblast) claimed captured by RU 1427 Regt (Colonelcassad/RVvoenkor - Visual Claim). Ongoing Russian DRG activity in Sumy Oblast. RU establishing control over border villages, assess need to advance 20-30km into Sumy for "security zone" (Colonelcassad).
Belgorod: Claims UA continues attacks near Popovka/Demidovka despite losses; fighting ongoing. UA assessed to likely hold a foothold in Popovka (WarGonzo).
Bryansk: Claims continued observation of UA forces reinforcing near the border.
Kharkiv Direction:4 Russian attacks repelled near Vovchansk and towards Kamyanka (UGS/Liveuamap).
Kupyansk Direction:3 Russian attacks occurred, repelled near Zahryzove and towards Bohuslavka (UGS/Liveuamap). RU MoD claims capture of Krasne Pershe (Rybar). DeepState map update (Mar 26) showed UA repelled RU at Kotlyne, RU advanced near Pischane.
Lyman Direction:CRITICAL INTENSITY.16 Russian attacks occurred. RU attempts to penetrate defenses near Nadiya, Yampolivka, and towards Hrekivka, Nove, Novomykhailivka, Zelena Dolyna. Terny previously assessed as mostly RU-occupied (UGS/Liveuamap/DeepState). DeepState map update (Mar 26) showed RU advanced near Terny, Katerynivka (Luhansk Oblast).
Siversk Direction:1 Russian attack repelled near Ivano-Darivka (UGS/Liveuamap).
Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar):4 Russian attacks occurred near Chasiv Yar and towards Bila Hora, Predtechyne. No significant LoC changes reported by RU sources (UGS/WarGonzo/Liveuamap).
Toretsk Direction:HIGH INTENSITY.20 Russian attacks occurred near Toretsk and towards Dyliivka, Shcherbynivka. Belarusian POW captured by UA forces (UGS/Tsaplienko/Liveuamap). RU claims expanding control near Panteleimonivka, fighting within Toretsk city (WarGonzo). RU presence claimed S of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk) in forest S of 12th microdistrict and W part of Zabalka (Rybar). New:Ukrainian forces expanded zone of control by 800m in central Shcherbynivka (Slivochniy Kapriz - UA CLAIM / CONTRADICTS RU NARRATIVE). Russian MLRS strikes confirmed on Shcherbynivka (Slivochniy Kapriz video).
Pokrovsk Direction:HIGHEST INTENSITY. Remains primary RU focus. 73 Russian assault actions repelled across numerous settlements including Panteleymonivka, Oleksandropil, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Novoserhiyivka, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka, Kotlyarivka, Uspenivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriyivka and towards Kalynove (UGS/Liveuamap). RU claims advances S of Krasnoarmeisk (Pokrovsk) and towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. DeepState map update indicates Russian advance in Nadiivka (UGS/RU Sources/Liveuamap/DeepState).
Novopavlivsk / Velykonovosilkivske Directions:17 Russian attacks occurred near Kostiantynopil, Rozlyv, Dniproenerhiya (UGS/Liveuamap). RU forces reported advancing near Andriivka, Razdolne, Skudne and fighting for control of Rozlyv (Z Komitet maps claim/Voin DV claims). RU Group "Vostok" advancing near Rozlyv, claims Konstantinopil under full RU control (RU CLAIM / CONTRADICTS UA REPORTS - Voin DV). DeepState map update indicates Russian advance in Rozlyv (UGS/WarGonzo/Z Komitet/Liveuamap/DeepState).
Huliaipole Direction:4 Russian attacks repelled near Pryvilne (UGS/SDF/Liveuamap).
Zaporizhzhia Direction (Orikhiv Area):8 Russian assaults attempting advances towards Shcherbaky, Mali Shcherbaky, Mala Tokmachka, Stepove, Kamyanske, Nesteryanka repelled by UA forces (UGS/SDF/Liveuamap). RU Claims: Claim liberation of Malye Shcherbaki (RU MoD Mar 28), provide details of assault, claiming UA forces fled/surrendered and evacuating BMP group destroyed (RU CLAIM / CONTRADICTS UA REPORTS - Colonelcassad). RU forces fighting in central Shcherbaki (Rybar). DeepState map update (Mar 26) showed RU advanced near Dniproenerhiya area.
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson):2 Russian attacks repelled. Positional fighting continues (UGS/SDF/Liveuamap).
Equipment Notes: Widespread Russian use of improvised cage armor ("cope cages") visually confirmed across various vehicle types (tanks, IFVs, trucks), indicating adaptation to drone threats (Dva Mayora). Deployment of older GAZ-69 vehicles observed, potentially indicating equipment constraints (Butusov Plus).
III. Other Military-Relevant Developments
Russian Strategic Assessment (Reinforced): Multiple reports citing Ukrainian intelligence and G7 diplomats assess Russia is preparing for a large-scale offensive expected in the coming weeks across the entire front, potentially lasting 6-9 months. Current RU attacks viewed as preparatory (AP/RBC-Ukraine/RU Sources/Dnevnik Desantnika). Russian source Alaudinov predicts SVO end by Autumn 2024 (Alex Parker Returns - Info Ops).
Diplomacy: Brazilian President Lula da Silva plans to visit Moscow in May and discuss peaceful settlement in Ukraine with Putin (TASS).
Humanitarian:5 Ukrainian children (aged 11-16) returned from occupied territories (Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia) through Qatari mediation under President Zelenskyy's "Bring Kids Back UA" plan. Cases involved parental separation (father POW) and abuse (Zaporizhzhia OVA/Ombudsman).
Logistics/Infrastructure (Ukraine): Ukrzaliznytsia (Ukrainian Railways) has stabilized its online ticket services after migrating to a new, more secure platform following previous disruptions (UZ/Operatyvnyi ZSU/RBC-Ukraine).
Mobilization (Ukraine): Reports from Russian sources claim a TCC (Territorial Recruitment Center) head in Vinnytsia Oblast was prosecuted but acquitted for failing to meet mobilization quotas (25% fulfillment), citing insufficient eligible personnel in the district (RU CLAIM / Potential indicator of localized mobilization issues - Dnevnik Desantnika).
Personnel/Casualties: Ukrainian sources claim elimination of Russian soldier Evgeniy Burtsev (b. 1978, Vologda Oblast) (Shef Hayabusa).
Russian Capabilities: First batch of new Su-35S fighters delivered to Russian Aerospace Forces in 2025 (WarGonzo/Colonelcassad).
Technological Developments: US company Maxar Intelligence reportedly developed Raptor, a GPS-independent drone navigation system using visual data and 3D maps (Dva Mayora). RU forces reportedly receiving 'Nabat' drone detectors in Kursk Oblast (Dva Mayora).
Regional Developments:
Belarus: Speaker of the Belarusian opposition Coordination Council, Anzhelika Melnikova, reportedly missing from Poland since March 25, potentially flew to UK. Access to Council funds also lost. Concerns raised about targeting by Belarusian/Russian special services (ASTRA/Latushko).
Turkey: RuTube reportedly blocked in Turkey, formally due to gambling ads (denied by source), potentially a political signal (Colonelcassad/Basurin/Voenkor Kotenok).
Myanmar: Russian Deputy Defence Minister Fomin discussed military cooperation with Myanmar PM Min Aung Hlaing (TASS).
Central Asia: Ongoing discussion regarding potential water resource tensions between Afghanistan (Taliban) and Uzbekistan over the Kosh Tepa canal construction on the Amu Darya river (Rybar).
Information Operations: Continued Russian claims of UA atrocities (Pogrebki), mercenary presence (Dnipro), forced mobilization, alleged organ harvesting. Exploitation of POW interviews. Highlighting RU drone effectiveness and capture of settlements. Disputing UA operational reports. Promotion of new RU drone tactics (Bild). Zelenskyy highlights RU disregard for peace efforts and need for partner pressure/support.
