Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 29, 2025, 08:56 UTC
I. Air, Missile, Drone, and Naval Activity
Ongoing Air Threats (Sumy, Eastern/Southeastern Axes): Russian tactical aviation continues launching Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) towards Sumy Oblast (as of 06:58 UTC). Increased activity persists on the Eastern and Southeastern axes, maintaining the threat of air-launched weapon strikes (UA Air Force). An enemy UAV was reported over Dnipro city with Air Defence active (UA Air Force, 08:38 UTC).
NATO ISR Activity (Black Sea/Romania): A NATO Bombardier Challenger 650 Artemis SIGINT aircraft was observed conducting surveillance over Romania, focusing on Transnistria and the western Black Sea (RU Sources, 08:04 UTC).
Overnight Russian Strikes Summary (Night Mar 28/29 - UA Sources):
Scale:172 Shahed-type UAVs and imitator drones launched.
Interceptions:94 Shahed/other UAVs confirmed shot down (UA AF); 4 Shaheds specifically confirmed downed by Southern Defense Forces (SDF).
Lost Track: 69 imitator drones locationally lost without reported negative impacts.
Damage (Confirmed): Extensive damage to hotel-restaurant complex ("Bartolomeo"), private homes (4 destroyed, 10+ damaged), multi-story buildings, educational/administrative buildings, warehouses, vehicles (incl. 2 SES vehicles).
RU Claims: Target was alleged mercenary/SBU/GUR hub; claim destruction/sinking of UA military vessel on Dnipro river nearby (RU CLAIM / Needs Verification).
Kharkiv Oblast (Overnight/Ongoing): Impacts from Shaheds, shelling, MLRS, drone drops across communities causing fires, damage to residential/commercial buildings, infrastructure, vehicles. 1 civilian WIA near Liutivka. Power outages affecting >7400 subscribers (Syniehubov/OVA).
Sumy Oblast: Ongoing KAB threat. Previous Kh-31 strike on Sumy city. Overnight Shahed/Gerbera strikes near Sumy/Okhtyrka. Morning UMPK strikes reported (UGS/Colonelcassad/UA Air Force/RBC-Ukraine).
Nikopol (Dnipropetrovsk): RU claims morning FPV drone strike on SBU/Police building, alleging casualties and data destruction (RU CLAIM - Dnevnik Desantnika/Basurin).
Other Frontline Oblasts (Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson): Widespread Russian air (KAB/UMPK/NAR), artillery, and drone strikes reported across multiple settlements along the front lines (UGS/Respective OVAs/SDF).
Kyiv Oblast (Overnight):16 UAVs destroyed out of 30 detected in/near Kyiv airspace. No casualties or destruction reported within Kyiv city limits (KMVA).
Luhansk City (Mar 28 night - RU Claim): Warehouse fire claimed caused by debris from intercepted UA UAVs (RU CLAIM).
Mariupol (Occupied): Ukrainian partisans claim successful arson attack on a Russian military base/parking area on Mar 23, destroying vehicles and ammunition. Location allegedly revealed via social media posts by Russian personnel (RBC-Ukraine - UA CLAIM).
Naval Missile Threat Assessment (UGS 06:00 UTC):
Black Sea: 2 Kalibr carriers (up to 8 missiles).
Mediterranean Sea: 3 Kalibr carriers (up to 26 missiles).
General (UGS): Hits reported on 9 RU concentration areas, 1 AD system, 1 C2 point, 2 artillery systems, 2 other targets.
Donetsk Front Repulsion (UA CLAIM): Combined UA forces (72nd Mech, 59th Motorized, 35th Marines, 414th Drone Bde) claim repelling large RU assault, inflicting losses: 59 personnel (26 KIA), 5 vehicles, 71 drones neutralized by EW (Operatyvnyi ZSU).
Belgorod Oblast Interceptions (RU CLAIM): 3 Ukrainian UAVs claimed shot down overnight (Voenkor Kotenok).
II. Ground Combat Operations & Border Areas
Overall Intensity:183 combat clashes recorded across the front line in the past 24 hours (UGS 06:00 UTC).
Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy Border Operations:
Ukrainian Claims/Actions:
Advance into Belgorod Oblast: Ukrainian forces reportedly advanced 3-4 km into Belgorod Oblast, breaching the first Russian defense line. Operation assessed as aimed at diverting Russian forces from Kursk Oblast (Reuters/Tsaplienko/Black Bird Group - UA CLAIM/ASSESSMENT).
Kursk Operations: Operations continue. 14 Russian assaults repelled in the past 24 hours (UGS). 5 Russian POWs captured (UA DShV Claim/Visual).
Russian Attacks: RU forces conducted 28 air strikes (44 KABs) and 371 shelling attacks (16 MLRS) against the Kursk area (UGS).
Russian Claims/Actions:
Kursk: Claims situation largely static near Oleshnia, UA digging in. Gogolevka confirmed liberated by RU forces (WarGonzo/RU MoD). Advancing towards Oleshnia; fighting ongoing in Huyevo, claim to be "grinding down" UA forces there (WarGonzo/TASS). Cherkasske Porechne claimed captured (Colonelcassad - Visual Claim). Pogrebki: Civilian body found, UA forces blamed (SK RF/Poddubny - RU CLAIM / WAR CRIMES ALLEGATION). DeepState map update indicates Russian advance in Kursk region.
Sumy Border:Veselovka (Sumy Oblast) claimed captured (Colonelcassad - Visual Claim).
Belgorod: Claims UA continues attacks near Popovka/Demidovka despite losses; fighting ongoing. UA assessed to likely hold a foothold in Popovka (WarGonzo).
Bryansk: Claims continued observation of UA forces reinforcing near the border.
Kharkiv Direction:4 Russian attacks repelled near Vovchansk and towards Kamyanka (UGS/Liveuamap).
Kupyansk Direction:3 Russian attacks occurred, repelled near Zahryzove and towards Bohuslavka (UGS/Liveuamap). Previous major RU assault repelled Mar 27.
Lyman Direction:CRITICAL INTENSITY.16 Russian attacks occurred. RU attempts to penetrate defenses near Nadiya, Yampolivka, and towards Hrekivka, Nove, Novomykhailivka, Zelena Dolyna. Terny previously assessed as mostly RU-occupied (UGS/Liveuamap/DeepState).
Siversk Direction:1 Russian attack repelled near Ivano-Darivka (UGS/Liveuamap).
Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar):4 Russian attacks occurred near Chasiv Yar and towards Bila Hora, Predtechyne. No significant LoC changes reported by RU sources (UGS/WarGonzo/Liveuamap).
Toretsk Direction:HIGH INTENSITY.20 Russian attacks occurred near Toretsk and towards Dyliivka, Shcherbynivka. Belarusian POW captured by UA forces (UGS/Tsaplienko/Liveuamap). RU claims expanding control near Panteleimonivka, fighting within Toretsk city (WarGonzo).
Pokrovsk Direction:HIGHEST INTENSITY. Remains primary RU focus. 73 Russian assault actions repelled across numerous settlements. RU claims advances S of Krasnoarmeisk (Pokrovsk) and towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. DeepState map update indicates Russian advance in Nadiivka (UGS/RU Sources/Liveuamap/DeepState).
Novopavlivsk / Velykonovosilkivske Directions:17 Russian attacks occurred near Kostiantynopil, Rozlyv, Dniproenerhiya. RU forces reported advancing near Andriivka, Razdolne, Skudne and fighting for control of Rozlyv (Z Komitet maps claim/Voin DV claims). DeepState map update indicates Russian advance in Rozlyv (UGS/WarGonzo/Z Komitet/Liveuamap/DeepState).
Huliaipole Direction:4 Russian attacks repelled near Pryvilne (UGS/SDF/Liveuamap).
Zaporizhzhia Direction (Orikhiv Area):8 Russian assaults attempting advances towards multiple settlements repelled by UA forces (UGS/SDF/Liveuamap). RU Claims: Claim liberation of Malye Shcherbaki (RU MoD Mar 28), provide details of assault, claiming UA forces fled/surrendered and an evacuating BMP group was destroyed (RU CLAIM / CONTRADICTS UA REPORTS - Colonelcassad).
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson):2 Russian attacks repelled. Positional fighting continues (UGS/SDF/Liveuamap).
III. Other Military-Relevant Developments
Russian Strategic Assessment (Reinforced): Multiple reports citing Ukrainian intelligence and G7 diplomats assess Russia is preparing for a large-scale offensive expected in the coming weeks across the entire 1000km front, potentially lasting 6-9 months. Current RU attacks viewed as preparatory (AP/RBC-Ukraine/RU Sources).
Russian Capabilities: First batch of new Su-35S fighters delivered to Russian Aerospace Forces in 2025 (WarGonzo/Colonelcassad). Deployment of older GAZ-69 vehicles observed, potentially indicating equipment constraints (Butusov Plus).
Technological Developments: US company Maxar Intelligence reportedly developed Raptor, a GPS-independent drone navigation system using visual data and 3D maps (Dva Mayora).
Russian Information Operations: Continued claims of UA atrocities (Pogrebki), mercenary presence (Dnipro), forced mobilization (Odesa), alleged organ harvesting consent forms found on POWs. Exploitation of POW interviews. Highlighting RU drone effectiveness and capture of settlements. Disputing UA operational reports.
Turkish Developments: RuTube reportedly blocked in Turkey (Colonelcassad/Basurin).
