Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 29, 2025, 08:26 UTC
(Incorporating updates received up to 08:26 UTC)
I. Air, Missile, Drone, and Naval Activity
Air Threat (Sumy Oblast - UA Air Force - 06:58 UTC): Russian tactical aviation launching Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) towards Sumy Oblast. (Status: Ongoing as of last report).
Tactical Aviation Threat (UA Air Force - 06:11 UTC): Ongoing increased activity of Russian tactical aviation observed on the Eastern and Southeastern axes. Threat of air-launched weapon strikes remains.
NATO ISR Activity (Black Sea/Romania - RU Sources - 08:04 UTC - NEW): A NATO Bombardier Challenger 650 Artemis aircraft, designed for signals intelligence, reported conducting surveillance operations over Romania, focusing on Transnistria and the western Black Sea.
Overall Russian Strikes (Night Mar 28/29 - UA Air Force 08:30 Local / Various Sources - UPDATED):
Total Launched (UA AF):172 Shahed-type UAVs and various imitator drones launched from Millerovo, Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk (Russia), and Chauda (Crimea). (Note: RU sources (Basurin) claim >130 drones attacked Dnipropetrovsk alone).
Interceptions (UA AF Confirmed):94 Shahed/other UAVs shot down across northern, eastern, and central Ukraine by aviation, ZRV, EW, and mobile fire groups.
Southern Interceptions (SDF Confirmed):4 Shaheds destroyed within their area of responsibility.
Lost Track/No Impact (UA AF):69 imitator drones were locationally lost without reported negative consequences.
Impacted Regions (UA Confirmed): Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy Oblasts suffered consequences from the attack.
Kamikaze Drones: 2853 used (Note: This UGS number differs from the Air Force's specific overnight Shahed/imitator count and SDF's southern count).
Southern Front Specifics (SDF - Past 24hrs): >320 shellings (~1500 rounds), 510 kamikaze drones, >230 drone drops targeting Kherson, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. 23 KABs, ~100 NARs used against civilian/critical infrastructure.
Specific Russian Air/Missile/Drone Strikes (Past 24hrs / Ongoing - Various Sources - UPDATED):
Dnipro City (Overnight Shaheds - UA Confirmed/DSNS/Lysak/Prosecutor):
Casualties (Final Confirmed - Lysak 22:26 UTC Mar 28):4 civilians KIA (2m, 2f), 19 civilians WIA (up from 15 previously reported, aged 19-74). Criminal investigation initiated for war crime (Art. 438).
Damage (UA Confirmed): Extensive damage: Hotel-restaurant complex ("Bartolomeo" feature heavily damaged/fire localized), 4 private homes destroyed, 10+ private homes damaged, garages, vehicle service station, multiple multi-story buildings, educational institution, administrative building, warehouse facilities, 21 vehicles damaged, motorcycles destroyed. 2 SES fire/rescue vehicles also damaged. Search/rescue concluded; fire suppression completed.
RU Claims (Alex Parker Returns / Basurin / RIA/Lebedev - NEW): Claim strike reduced call center scams. Claim target was Bartolomeo complex housing foreign mercenaries/personnel ("10 NATO officers" claimed eliminated by Lebedev/RIA) and SBU/GUR personnel. Claim UA AD responsible for civilian damage. (RU CLAIM / INFO OPS)
Potential Vessel Strike (RU Claim - Alex Parker - NEW): Photos shared claiming destruction/sinking of a Ukrainian military vessel on the Dnipro river near the city. Appears close to the damaged Bartolomeo complex area. (RU CLAIM / VISUAL - Needs Verification)
Kharkiv Oblast (Night Mar 28/29 - Syniehubov/OVA): Detailed impacts across multiple communities from Shaheds, shelling, MLRS, drone drops causing fires, damage to residential/commercial buildings, infrastructure, vehicles, and civilian stress reactions/injuries (39M WIA in Kupyansk, 1M WIA near Liutivka). Power outages reported affecting >7400 subscribers.
Sumy Oblast (UGS/Colonelcassad/UA Air Force/RBC-Ukraine - UPDATED): Ongoing KAB threat (06:58 UTC). Previous air strikes reported against multiple settlements. Kh-31 strike on Sumy city. Overnight Shahed/Gerbera strikes near Sumy city and Okhtyrka. Morning UMPK strikes reported (05:00 UTC). Overnight drone attack destroyed a recreation base in Okhtyrka district; no casualties reported (RBC-Ukraine - CONFIRMED).
Nikopol (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast - RU Claim - Lebedev via Basurin/Dnevnik Desantnika - CONFIRMED RU CLAIM - NEW): Claimed morning FPV drone strike on SBU/Police building, based on partisan intelligence. Claims emergency response observed (2 ambulances, 2 fire trucks), casualties inflicted, equipment/data destroyed. Threatens future strikes on SBU/GUR locations. (RU CLAIM)
Donetsk Oblast (UGS): Air strikes reported against Novopil. UMPK strikes reported.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (UGS/ZOVA/Colonelcassad/SDF): Air strikes reported against Kam'ianske, Novoandriivka, Novodanylivka. UMPK strikes against Kamyshevakha, Orikhiv, Tavriiske. 484 total Russian strikes across 13 settlements (Past 24hrs - ZOVA). SDF confirms widespread drone/arty/air strikes in frontline areas.
Kherson Oblast (UGS/Colonelcassad/SDF): Air strike reported against Kozatske. Strikes reported in Kherson city. Army aviation strikes in Beryslav district. SDF confirms widespread drone/arty/air strikes in frontline areas.
Kyiv Oblast (KMVA/Colonelcassad): Overnight: 30 enemy UAVs detected in Kyiv's airspace and vicinity. 16 UAVs destroyed by air defense forces. Remaining UAVs were locationally lost or left airspace. No casualties or destruction reported within Kyiv city limits. Strikes reported in Zghurivka, Brovary, Vyshhorod, Bila Tserkva areas.
Luhansk City (Mar 28 night - RU Claim): Large fire in industrial zone (warehouse) claimed caused by falling debris from two intercepted Ukrainian UAVs. No casualties claimed. Photos show significant damage. (RU CLAIM)
Black Sea:2 Russian Kalibr carriers, potential salvo up to 8 missiles.
Azov Sea: No Russian naval assets reported.
Mediterranean Sea:4 Russian ships present, 3 Kalibr carriers, potential salvo up to 26 missiles.
Ukrainian Counter-Strikes (Past 24hrs - UGS 06:00 UTC / Other Sources - UPDATED):
General (UGS): Aviation, missile troops, and artillery hit 9 RU concentration areas (personnel/equipment), 1 AD system, 1 C2 point, 2 artillery systems, and 2 other targets.
Donetsk Front (Operatyvnyi ZSU - UA CLAIM - NEW): Combined forces (72nd Mech, 59th Motorized, 35th Marines, 414th Drone Bde) claim repulsion of large RU assault. Claimed RU losses: 59 personnel (26 KIA), 5 vehicles, 71 drones neutralized by EW. (Visual)
Velyka Novosilka (Donetsk - UA Claim): Reported airstrike on Russian Command Post (KP). (Visual)
Donbas Front (UA Claim - Butusov/Madyar - Mar 27): UA drone unit 'Ochi ta Zhalo' (Madyar) claims destruction/damage of 28 RU armored vehicles during 3 assaults, hitting 192 unique targets, and eliminating 60 RU personnel in 24hrs on Mar 27. (Visual)
Belgorod Oblast Interceptions (RU Claim - Voenkor Kotenok - NEW): RU MoD claims 3 Ukrainian UAVs shot down overnight over Belgorod Oblast. Claims significantly lower activity compared to previous night. (RU CLAIM)
II. Ground Combat Operations & Border Areas
Total Combat Clashes (Past 24hrs - UGS 06:00 UTC):183 combat clashes recorded across the front line.
Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy Border Operations (RU Territory / UA Ops):
Ukrainian Defense Forces continue operations in Kursk Oblast.
14 Russian assaults repelled in the Kursk area over the past 24 hours (UGS).
Claimed Advance (Belgorod Oblast - Tsaplienko/Reuters/Black Bird Group - NEW): Ukrainian forces reportedly advanced 3-4 km into Belgorod Oblast, breaching the first Russian defense line. Operation assessed as aimed at diverting Russian forces from Kursk Oblast. (UA CLAIM / ASSESSMENT)
5 Russian POWs captured by UA DShV (+ allies) in Kursk Oblast. UA claims POWs reported mistreatment/threats in own units for refusing "meat assaults". (UA DShV Claim / Visual)
Russian forces conducted 28 air strikes (44 KABs) and 371 shelling attacks (16 MLRS) against the Kursk area in the past 24 hours (UGS).
Claims situation largely unchanged near Oleshnia; UA digging in, attempting nightly reinforcement (small groups 5-10 personnel) targeted by RU arty/drones; RU aviation active near Sadky. Claims significant UA UAV crew losses (3-6 crews daily). Claims UA attempting to hold Basovka (controlling ~1/4), reinforcing despite losses. Claims UA pulled back artillery south of Yunakovka, moved drone C2 into Yunakovka, assessing possible UA withdrawal prep. (RU CLAIM / ASSESSMENT)
Gogolevka (Kursk Oblast) confirmed liberated by RU forces (WarGonzo/RU MoD). (RU CLAIM)
RU forces moving towards Oleshnia from multiple sides following Gogolevka capture; fighting ongoing in Huyevo. (WarGonzo) (RU CLAIM)
Huyevo Engagement (TASS - NEW): RU forces claimed to be "grinding down" UA special units in Huyevo, preventing their retreat into Sumy Oblast. (RU CLAIM)
Veselovka (Sumy Oblast) claimed captured by RU 1427 Regt (Mar 28). (Colonelcassad/The Wrong Side - Visual Claim) (RU CLAIM)
Cherkasske Porechne (Kursk Oblast) claimed captured by RU forces, reported as destroyed/depopulated. Accompanied by Akhmat forces. Includes allegations of UA atrocities/mining. (Colonelcassad/Naumova - Visual Claim) (RU CLAIM / INFO OPS)
Pogrebki (Kursk Oblast - Poddubny/SK RF - NEW): Russian Investigative Committee claims discovery of civilian body with signs of violent death, blames Ukrainian forces. (RU CLAIM / INFO OPS / WAR CRIMES ALLEGATION)
Claims UA continues attacks near Popovka/Demidovka despite losses; claims 7 UA armored vehicles destroyed yesterday. Claims UA shelling/drone attacks on Stroytel, no casualties reported. (RU CLAIM)
Fighting ongoing near Demidovka and Popovka (VSU likely secured foothold, heavy fighting). (WarGonzo) (RU CLAIM / ASSESSMENT)
Russian Perspective/Claims (Bryansk - Dnevnik Desantnika): Claims continued observation of UA forces bringing equipment and personnel closer to the border. Claims continued UA shelling and drone attacks into Bryansk Oblast. (RU CLAIM)
Volyn/Polissia Directions (Northern Border - UGS): No signs of offensive grouping formation detected.
Kharkiv Direction (UGS / Syniehubov):4 Russian attacks repelled in the areas of Vovchansk and towards Kamyanka over the past 24 hours.
Kupyansk Direction (UGS / Syniehubov / RBC-Ukraine):3 Russian attacks occurred in the past 24 hours. UA forces repelled assaults near Zahryzove and towards Bohuslavka. Ukrainian forces (OSUV Khortytsia) reported repelling a significant Russian assault on Mar 27 after ~3 weeks of RU preparation, claiming heavy RU losses (60 KIA, 28 WIA, 12 AFV, 1 tank).
Lyman Direction (UGS):CRITICAL INTENSITY.16 Russian attacks occurred in the past 24 hours. RU forces attempted to penetrate UA defenses near Nadiya, Yampolivka, and towards Hrekivka, Nove, Novomykhailivka, Zelena Dolyna. Terny previously assessed as almost fully occupied by RU forces (DeepState Mar 27).
Siversk Direction (UGS):1 Russian attack repelled near Ivano-Darivka in the past 24 hours.
Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar Area - UGS / WarGonzo):4 Russian attacks occurred near Chasiv Yar and towards Bila Hora, Predtechyne in the past 24 hours. No significant Line of Contact changes reported; fighting continues within city limits and on flanks (WarGonzo assessment).
Toretsk Direction / Alexandrо-Kalyninske (UGS / WarGonzo / UA Claim - Tsaplienko):HIGH INTENSITY.20 Russian attacks occurred near Toretsk and towards Dyliivka and Shcherbynivka in the past 24 hours (UGS).
Belarusian POW: UA 100th Mech Bde captured Belarusian citizen (Ruslan Shustov) fighting for Russia in Toretsk area. Claims RU command gave vague order to advance, threatened execution for retreat. (Tsaplienko/UA Claim / Visual)
RU expanding control zone near Panteleimonivka; fighting ongoing within Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk) itself. (WarGonzo - RU Claim) (RU CLAIM)
Pokrovsk Direction (UGS / Slivocnhy Kapriz - RU Claim / WarGonzo / Z Komitet - RU Claim / Kotsnews - RU Claim - UPDATED):HIGHEST INTENSITY. Remains primary RU offensive focus. 73 Russian assault actions repelled near Panteleimonivka, Oleksandropil, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Novoserhiivka, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka, Kotlyarivka, Uspenivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka, and towards Kalynove in the past 24 hours.
RU Claims: Active fighting near Krasnoarmeisk (Pokrovsk). RU mechanized attack reported W of Zaporizhzhia village. RU claimed advance of 3.5km under UA fire towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, south of Kotlyarivka. RU claims expansion of control zone S of Krasnoarmeisk. Meeting engagements ongoing, UA counterattacks reported ineffective (WarGonzo). RU claims UA elite FPV unit "Ptakhi Madyara" deployed here, claims RU "Vega" unit destroying their equipment (Kotsnews). (RU CLAIM)
Novopavlivsk / Velykonovosilkivske Directions (UGS / WarGonzo / Z Komitet - RU Claim - UPDATED):17 Russian attacks occurred near Kostiantynopil, Rozlyv, Dniproenerhiya in the past 24 hours (UGS). RU forces advancing towards Rozliv (WarGonzo). RU forces advancing near Andriivka, Razdolne, Skudne and fighting for control of Rozlyv (Z Komitet maps/claims - NEW). (RU CLAIM)
Huliaipole Direction (UGS / SDF):4 Russian attacks repelled near Pryvilne in the past 24 hours. (Confirmed by UGS & SDF).
Zaporizhzhia Direction (Orikhiv Area - UGS / SDF / TASS / WarGonzo / Colonelcassad - RU Claims - UPDATED):8 Russian assaults occurred attempting to advance towards Shcherbaky, Mali Shcherbaky, Mala Tokmachka, Stepove, Kamyanske, and north of Nesteryanka in the past 24 hours. All repelled (UGS/SDF).
RU Claims: Fighting continues in Shcherbaky. UA counter-attacks between Stepove and Shcherbaky are unsuccessful; RU holds initiative (Rogov via TASS / WarGonzo). RU MoD claims liberation of Malye Shcherbaki (Mar 28). Russian sources (Colonelcassad/Zvezda - NEW) detail assault on Maly Shcherbaky, claiming UA forces fled/surrendered, and a group of 17 attempting evacuation in a BMP were destroyed by drone fire. Includes interview with RU soldier "Delta". (RU CLAIM / CONTRADICTS UA REPORTS)
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson - UGS / SDF):2 Russian attacks successfully repelled in the past 24 hours. Positional fighting continues. (Confirmed by UGS & SDF).
III. Other Military-Relevant Developments
Russian Strategic Assessment Claim (RVvoenkor citing UA GenStaff/AP/G7 / Tsaplienko citing AP / RBC-Ukraine citing AP - NEW / REINFORCED): Multiple reports indicate Ukrainian intelligence and G7 diplomats assess Russia is preparing for a large-scale offensive expected to begin in the coming weeks, potentially lasting 6-9 months (or entire 2025), occurring across the entire 1000km frontline. Current increased RU attacks seen as preparatory actions to improve tactical positions and pressure Ukraine for negotiations on RU terms. (INTEL ASSESSMENT / CLAIM)
Enemy Tactics/Capabilities & Claims:
Border Ops Claims (RU Sources): Claims UA digging in near Oleshnia, suffering daily drone crew losses (3-6), holding only part of Basovka, potentially preparing withdrawal. Claims UA continues attacks in Belgorod despite losses (7 AFV destroyed claimed). Claims UA build-up near Bryansk border. Claims capture of Veselovka (Sumy), Gogolevka (Kursk), Cherkasske Porechne (Kursk). Claims UA secured foothold in Popovka (Belgorod). Claims grinding down UA forces in Huyevo (Kursk). (RU CLAIM / ASSESSMENT)
Drone Operations (RU - Voin DV / Narodnaya Militsiya DNR - NEW): Video compilation claims RU special forces (30th SpN Coy, Vostok Group) successfully targeting UA drone launch point (PU), multiple communication antenna-repeaters (incl. in Komar), potentially using combined drone spotting and artillery fire (30th Arty Bde). Video claims RU drone unit ("Okh
