Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 29, 2025, 07:56 UTC
(Incorporating updates received up to 07:56 UTC)
I. Air, Missile, Drone, and Naval Activity
Air Threat (Sumy Oblast - UA Air Force - 06:58 UTC): Russian tactical aviation launching Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) towards Sumy Oblast. (Status: Ongoing as of last report).
Tactical Aviation Threat (UA Air Force - 06:11 UTC): Ongoing increased activity of Russian tactical aviation observed on the Eastern and Southeastern axes. Threat of air-launched weapon strikes remains.
Overall Russian Strikes (Night Mar 28/29 - UA Air Force 08:30 Local / Various Sources - UPDATED):
Total Launched (UA AF):172 Shahed-type UAVs and various imitator drones launched from Millerovo, Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk (Russia), and Chauda (Crimea). (Note: RU sources (Basurin) claim >130 drones attacked Dnipropetrovsk alone).
Interceptions (UA AF Confirmed):94 Shahed/other UAVs shot down across northern, eastern, and central Ukraine by aviation, ZRV, EW, and mobile fire groups.
Southern Interceptions (SDF Confirmed):4 Shaheds destroyed within their area of responsibility.
Lost Track/No Impact (UA AF):69 imitator drones were locationally lost without reported negative consequences.
Impacted Regions (UA Confirmed): Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy Oblasts suffered consequences from the attack.
Kamikaze Drones: 2853 used (Note: This UGS number differs from the Air Force's specific overnight Shahed/imitator count and SDF's southern count).
Southern Front Specifics (SDF - Past 24hrs): >320 shellings (~1500 rounds), 510 kamikaze drones, >230 drone drops targeting Kherson, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. 23 KABs, ~100 NARs used against civilian/critical infrastructure.
Specific Russian Air/Missile/Drone Strikes (Past 24hrs / Ongoing - Various Sources - UPDATED):
Dnipro City (Overnight Shaheds - UA Confirmed/DSNS/Lysak/Prosecutor):
Casualties (Final Confirmed):4 civilians KIA (2m, 2f), 21 civilians WIA (aged 19-74). 13 remain hospitalized, 3 critical (incl. pregnant woman). Criminal investigation initiated for war crime (Art. 438).
Damage (UA Confirmed): Extensive damage: Hotel-restaurant complex ("Caravella" / "Bartolomeo" feature destroyed/fire extinguished), 4 private homes destroyed, 10+ private homes damaged, garages, vehicle service station, multiple multi-story buildings, educational institution, administrative building, warehouse facilities, 21 vehicles damaged, motorcycles destroyed. 2 SES fire/rescue vehicles also damaged. Search/rescue concluded; fire suppression completed.
RU Claims (Alex Parker Returns / Basurin): Claim strike reduced call center scams. Claim target was Bartolomeo complex housing foreign mercenaries/personnel. Claim UA AD responsible for civilian damage. (RU CLAIM / INFO OPS)
Kharkiv Oblast (Night Mar 28/29 - Syniehubov/OVA): Detailed impacts across multiple communities (Fedorivka, Borova, Kochetok, Mos'panove, Kupyansk, Liutivka, Vinnytski Ivany, Myrne) from Shaheds, shelling, MLRS, drone drops causing fires, damage to residential/commercial buildings, infrastructure, vehicles, and civilian stress reactions/injuries (39M WIA in Kupyansk, 1M WIA near Liutivka). Power outages reported affecting >7400 subscribers.
Sumy Oblast (UGS/Colonelcassad/UA Air Force/RBC-Ukraine - UPDATED): Ongoing KAB threat (06:58 UTC). Previous air strikes reported against Uhroidy, Naumivka, Myropilske, Krasnopillia, Petrushivka, Prokhody. Strikes near Lebedyn (Kh-59/69 from Su-57), Verkhnia Syrovatka (Kh-31 from Su-57), Yunakivka (OTRK, UMPK), Myropillia (UMPK). Kh-31 strike on Sumy city. Overnight Shahed/Gerbera strikes near Sumy city and Okhtyrka. Morning UMPK strikes reported (05:00 UTC). Overnight drone attack destroyed a recreation base in Okhtyrka district; no casualties reported (RBC-Ukraine - NEW).
Nikopol (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast - RU Claim - Lebedev via Basurin): Claimed morning FPV drone strike on SBU building. Claims emergency response observed (2 ambulances, 2 fire trucks), 3 casualties removed (status unknown). Claims SBU on 3rd floor, Police on 1st, equipment/data destroyed. Threatens future strikes on SBU/GUR locations. (RU CLAIM)
Donetsk Oblast (UGS): Air strikes reported against Novopil. UMPK strikes reported.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (UGS/ZOVA/Colonelcassad/SDF): Air strikes reported against Kam'ianske, Novoandriivka, Novodanylivka. UMPK strikes against Kamyshevakha, Orikhiv, Tavriiske. 484 total Russian strikes across 13 settlements (Past 24hrs - ZOVA). SDF confirms widespread drone/arty/air strikes in frontline areas.
Kherson Oblast (UGS/Colonelcassad/SDF): Air strike reported against Kozatske. Strikes reported in Kherson city. Army aviation strikes in Beryslav district. SDF confirms widespread drone/arty/air strikes in frontline areas.
Kyiv Oblast (KMVA/Colonelcassad): Overnight: 30 enemy UAVs detected in Kyiv's airspace and vicinity. 16 UAVs destroyed by air defense forces. Remaining UAVs were locationally lost or left airspace. No casualties or destruction reported within Kyiv city limits. Strikes reported in Zghurivka, Brovary, Vyshhorod, Bila Tserkva areas.
Black Sea:2 Russian Kalibr carriers, potential salvo up to 8 missiles.
Azov Sea: No Russian naval assets reported.
Mediterranean Sea:4 Russian ships present, 3 Kalibr carriers, potential salvo up to 26 missiles.
Ukrainian Counter-Strikes (Past 24hrs - UGS 06:00 UTC / Other Sources - UPDATED):
General (UGS): Aviation, missile troops, and artillery hit 9 RU concentration areas (personnel/equipment), 1 AD system, 1 C2 point, 2 artillery systems, and 2 other targets.
Velyka Novosilka (Donetsk - UA Claim): Reported airstrike on Russian Command Post (KP). (Visual)
Donbas Front (UA Claim - Butusov/Madyar - Mar 27): UA drone unit 'Ochi ta Zhalo' (Madyar) claims destruction/damage of 28 RU armored vehicles during 3 assaults, hitting 192 unique targets, and eliminating 60 RU personnel in 24hrs on Mar 27. (Visual)
Belgorod Oblast Interceptions (RU Claim - Voenkor Kotenok - NEW): RU MoD claims 3 Ukrainian UAVs shot down overnight over Belgorod Oblast. Claims significantly lower activity compared to previous night. (RU CLAIM)
II. Ground Combat Operations & Border Areas
Total Combat Clashes (Past 24hrs - UGS 06:00 UTC):183 combat clashes recorded across the front line.
Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy Border Operations (RU Territory / UA Ops):
Ukrainian Perspective (UGS 06:00 UTC / DShV):
Ukrainian Defense Forces continue operations in Kursk Oblast.
14 Russian assaults repelled in the area over the past 24 hours (UGS).
5 Russian POWs captured by UA DShV (+ allies) in Kursk Oblast. UA claims POWs reported mistreatment/threats in own units for refusing "meat assaults". (UA DShV Claim / Visual)
Russian forces conducted 28 air strikes (44 KABs) and 371 shelling attacks (16 MLRS) against the area in the past 24 hours (UGS).
Claims situation largely unchanged near Oleshnia; UA digging in, attempting nightly reinforcement (small groups 5-10 personnel) targeted by RU arty/drones; RU aviation active near Sadky. Claims significant UA UAV crew losses (3-6 crews daily). Claims UA attempting to hold Basovka (controlling ~1/4), reinforcing despite losses. Claims UA pulled back artillery south of Yunakovka, moved drone C2 into Yunakovka, assessing possible UA withdrawal prep. (RU CLAIM / ASSESSMENT)
Gogolevka (Kursk Oblast) confirmed liberated by RU forces (WarGonzo/RU MoD). (RU CLAIM)
RU forces moving towards Oleshnia from multiple sides following Gogolevka capture; fighting ongoing in Huyevo. (WarGonzo) (RU CLAIM)
Veselovka (Sumy Oblast) claimed captured by RU 1427 Regt yesterday (Mar 28). (Colonelcassad/The Wrong Side - Visual Claim) (RU CLAIM)
Claims UA continues attacks near Popovka/Demidovka despite losses; claims 7 UA armored vehicles destroyed yesterday. Claims UA shelling/drone attacks on Stroytel, no casualties reported. (RU CLAIM)
Fighting ongoing near Demidovka (situation clearer) and Popovka (VSU likely secured foothold, heavy fighting). (WarGonzo) (RU CLAIM / ASSESSMENT)
Russian Perspective/Claims (Bryansk - Dnevnik Desantnika): Claims continued observation of UA forces bringing equipment and personnel closer to the border. Claims continued UA shelling and drone attacks into Bryansk Oblast. (RU CLAIM)
Volyn/Polissia Directions (Northern Border - UGS): No signs of offensive grouping formation detected.
Kharkiv Direction (UGS / Syniehubov):4 Russian attacks repelled in the areas of Vovchansk and towards Kamyanka over the past 24 hours.
Kupyansk Direction (UGS / Syniehubov):3 Russian attacks occurred in the past 24 hours. UA forces repelled assaults near Zahryzove and towards Bohuslavka.
Lyman Direction (UGS):CRITICAL INTENSITY.16 Russian attacks occurred in the past 24 hours. RU forces attempted to penetrate UA defenses near Nadiya, Yampolivka, and towards Hrekivka, Nove, Novomykhailivka, Zelena Dolyna.
Siversk Direction (UGS):1 Russian attack repelled near Ivano-Darivka in the past 24 hours.
Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar Area - UGS / WarGonzo):4 Russian attacks occurred near Chasiv Yar and towards Bila Hora, Predtechyne in the past 24 hours. No significant Line of Contact changes reported; fighting continues within city limits and on flanks (WarGonzo assessment).
Toretsk Direction / Alexandrо-Kalyninske (UGS / WarGonzo / UA Claim - Tsaplienko):HIGH INTENSITY.20 Russian attacks occurred near Toretsk and towards Dyliivka and Shcherbynivka in the past 24 hours (UGS).
Belarusian POW: UA 100th Mech Bde captured Belarusian citizen (Ruslan Shustov) fighting for Russia in Toretsk area. Claims RU command gave vague order to advance in ruins, threatened execution for retreat. (Tsaplienko/UA Claim / Visual - NEW)
RU expanding control zone near Panteleimonivka; fighting ongoing within Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk) itself. (WarGonzo - RU Claim) (RU CLAIM)
Pokrovsk Direction (UGS / Slivocnhy Kapriz - RU Claim / WarGonzo / Z Komitet - RU CLAIM - UPDATED):HIGHEST INTENSITY. Remains primary RU offensive focus. 73 Russian assault actions repelled near Panteleimonivka, Oleksandropil, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Novoserhiivka, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka, Kotlyarivka, Uspenivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka, and towards Kalynove in the past 24 hours.
RU Claims: Active fighting near Krasnoarmeisk (Pokrovsk). RU mechanized attack reported W of Zaporizhzhia village. RU claimed advance of 3.5km under UA fire towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, south of Kotlyarivka. RU claims expansion of control zone S of Krasnoarmeisk. Meeting engagements ongoing, UA counterattacks reported ineffective (WarGonzo). (RU CLAIM)
Novopavlivsk / Velykonovosilkivske Directions (UGS / WarGonzo / Z Komitet - RU Claim - UPDATED):17 Russian attacks occurred near Kostiantynopil, Rozlyv, Dniproenerhiya in the past 24 hours (UGS). RU forces advancing towards Rozliv (WarGonzo). RU forces advancing near Andriivka, Razdolne, Skudne and fighting for control of Rozlyv (Z Komitet maps/claims). (RU CLAIM)
Huliaipole Direction (UGS / SDF):4 Russian attacks repelled near Pryvilne in the past 24 hours. (Confirmed by UGS & SDF).
Zaporizhzhia Direction (Orikhiv Area - UGS / SDF / TASS / WarGonzo - RU Claims):8 Russian assaults occurred attempting to advance towards Shcherbaky, Mali Shcherbaky, Mala Tokmachka, Stepove, Kamyanske, and north of Nesteryanka in the past 24 hours. All repelled (UGS/SDF).
RU Claims: Fighting continues in Shcherbaky. UA counter-attacks between Stepove and Shcherbaky are unsuccessful; RU holds initiative (Rogov via TASS / WarGonzo). (RU CLAIM / CONTRADICTS UA REPORTS)
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson - UGS / SDF):2 Russian attacks successfully repelled in the past 24 hours. Positional fighting continues. (Confirmed by UGS & SDF).
III. Other Military-Relevant Developments
Russian Strategic Assessment Claim (via RVvoenkor citing UA GenStaff/AP/G7): Reports indicate Ukrainian intelligence and G7 diplomats assess Russia is preparing for a large-scale offensive expected to begin in the coming weeks, potentially lasting 6-9 months and occurring across the entire frontline. Current increased RU attacks seen as preparatory actions. (INTEL ASSESSMENT / CLAIM - NEW)
Enemy Tactics/Capabilities & Claims:
Border Ops Claims (RU Sources): Claims UA digging in near Oleshnia, suffering daily drone crew losses (3-6), holding only part of Basovka, potentially preparing withdrawal. Claims UA continues attacks in Belgorod despite losses (7 AFV destroyed claimed). Claims UA build-up near Bryansk border. Claims capture of Veselovka (Sumy). Claims UA secured foothold in Popovka (Belgorod). (RU CLAIM / ASSESSMENT)
Artillery Tactics (RU MoD): Video claims D-30 howitzers used to target UA strongholds, dugouts, logistics, and provide suppression fire for assaults. Emphasis on camouflage. (RU CLAIM / VISUAL)
Drone Operations (RU - Voin DV - NEW): Video compilation claims RU special forces (30th SpN Coy, Vostok Group) successfully targeting UA drone launch point (PU), multiple communication antenna-repeaters (incl. in Komar), potentially using combined drone spotting and artillery fire (30th Arty Bde). (RU CLAIM / VISUAL)
New Drone Development (RU Source - Basurin): Claims development of "Klyuch-Fortuna" FPV fixed-wing drone. Stated specs: range up to 50 km, cost <100k RUB, hand-launched. Claimed ~30 tested. (RU CLAIM)
Anti-Drone Training (RU Source - Colonelcassad): Fundraising appeal for consumables (clay targets, ammo) for anti-drone training for units pulled from frontline. Indicates focus on countering UA drone threat. (RU CLAIM / NEEDS)
Recruitment Ads (RU MoD / Alex Parker): Continued production of recruitment videos for contract service noted by RU bloggers. (RU INFO OPS)
Nikopol SBU Strike (RU Claim - Lebedev via Basurin): Claimed successful FPV strike on SBU building, causing casualties/damage, destroying data. Threatens further strikes. (RU CLAIM)
POW Claims (RU - TASS - NEW): Video of POW claiming UA General Drapatii increased use of female prisoners in "meat assaults". (RU CLAIM / PROPAGANDA)
Demining Tactics (RU Source - Dva Mayora): Observed use of detection dogs, drones, RCVs for demining (likely border area). (Visual)
Aircraft Production (RU Source - Poddybny): OAK delivered first 2025 batch of Su-35S; claims expanding Su-34/Su-57 production.
Air Defense Terminology (RU Source - Fighterbomber): Internal RU discussion highlights ambiguity in reporting "acceptable misses" for AD, suggesting claimed intercepts might not equal destruction.
Casualty Claims (RU Source): RU MoD continues reporting high Ukrainian casualty figures. RU bloggers report UA tank loss due to poor camouflage (Arkhangel Spetsnaza - Visual). (RU CLAIM)
Ukrainian Capabilities & Morale:
Enemy Losses Claim (UGS - 06:00 UTC / OTU Kharkiv - Updated): Claimed elimination of 1740 Russian personnel, destruction of 23 tanks, 34 AFVs, 64 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 3 AD systems, 164 OTR UAVs, 118 vehicles in the past 24 hours. Cumulative claims also updated (e.g., >912k personnel since Feb 2022).
Enemy Losses Claim (SDF - South Only - Updated): Claimed elimination of 117 RU personnel, destruction of 2 tanks, 17 arty systems, 21 AFV/vehicles, 6 recon UAVs (Supercam, Zala, Orlan), plus other equipment (quads, motorcycles, boats, generators, comms antennas incl. Starlink, UAV control antennas, ammo/fuel dumps) in past 24 hrs. Destroyed 49 shelters/posts, 1 observation post. Claim 20 AFV, 4 tanks destroyed in past 5 days. (NEW DETAILS)
Drone Operations (UA Shadow Unit / Madyar Unit): Shadow unit claims destroying 2 RU tanks using drones. Madyar unit claims significant RU armor/personnel losses in Donbas (Mar 27). (Visual)
Tactical Success Anecdote (OTU Kharkiv - NEW): Report highlights UA soldier ("Lenin", 58th Motorized Bde) single-handedly ambushing and destroying a Russian motorcycle assault group attempting to storm UA positions. (UA CLAIM / MORALE)
Equipment Needs (UA Sources): UA Drone unit (Shadow) requests drone batteries. Sternenko reports 1590 outstanding drone requests. RBC-Ukraine/Volunteers fundraising for field stretchers for multiple brigades (109, 143, 1 OShB). RU sources note UA crowdfunding needs (Dnevnik Desantnika / Dva Mayora - Kherson Arty Recon).
Information Operations & Propaganda:
RU Propaganda: Medical volunteer video ("Hero Z"). Claims targeting military facility (Yuzhmash) / foreign personnel (Bartolomeo) in Dnipro, blaming UA AD for civilian damage. Detailed strike chronicle (Colonelcassad). Claim of UA TCC forcibly detaining underage courier in Odesa (RVvoenkor - Visual). Claim Dnipro strike reduced call center scams (Alex Parker). Recruitment videos. Claim UA tank loss due to poor camo. POW videos alleging UA mistreatment/use of prisoners (TASS). Commentary on Zelensky/negotiations (Kotsnews). Framing US VP Vance's comments positively (Dnevnik Desantnika). (RU CLAIM / INFO OPS)
UA Propaganda/Morale: Videos/posts showing captured RU POWs (Kursk, Toretsk - incl. Belarusian). Posts commemorating fallen soldiers (KMVA). National Minute of Silence reminders (UGS/OVA/Operatyvnyi ZSU). Posts highlighting UA drone/combat successes (Madyar, Shadow, SDF, OTU Kharkiv veteran story). Fundraising appeals emphasizing soldier needs. Questioning US VP Vance's ceasefire comments amidst ongoing RU strikes (Operativnyi ZSU). Highlighting RU cynicism/cruelty (Operativnyi ZSU). (UA INFO OPS / MORALE)
Internal Ukrainian Developments:
"Military Lawyers" Incident: Reports of confrontation involving individuals/vehicles labeled "Military Lawyers" potentially linked to resisting mobilization. Police investigating (3 criminal proceedings initiated), UA Bar Assoc. distances itself. Linked to private security firm registered to Zaporizhzhia lawyer. (Shtirlits)
IV. International Military Cooperation & Aid / Political
Black Sea Ceasefire Discussions: Continued discussion and conflicting interpretations regarding potential US-mediated Black Sea ceasefire talks. US VP Vance stated ceasefire "almost ready" (Mar 28 briefing). UA sources express skepticism about RU adherence, highlighting continued strikes (Operativnyi ZSU). RU sources frame potential deal as advantageous to Russia (Kotsnews). (ONGOING DIPLOMATIC/IO)
