Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 29, 2025, 07:26 UTC
(Incorporating updates received up to 07:26 UTC)
I. Air, Missile, Drone, and Naval Activity
Air Threat (Sumy Oblast - UA Air Force - 06:58 UTC - NEW): Russian tactical aviation launching Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) towards Sumy Oblast.
Tactical Aviation Threat (UA Air Force - 06:11 UTC): Ongoing increased activity of Russian tactical aviation observed on the Eastern and Southeastern axes. Threat of air-launched weapon strikes remains.
Overall Russian Strikes (Night Mar 28/29 - UA Air Force 08:30 Local):
Total Launched:172 Shahed-type UAVs and various imitator drones launched from Millerovo, Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk (Russia), and Chauda (Crimea).
Interceptions (Confirmed):94 Shahed/other UAVs shot down across northern, eastern, and central Ukraine by aviation, ZRV, EW, and mobile fire groups. Southern Defense Forces report 4 Shaheds destroyed within their area of responsibility.
Lost Track/No Impact:69 imitator drones were locationally lost without reported negative consequences.
Impacted Regions (Confirmed): Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy Oblasts suffered consequences from the attack.
Kamikaze Drones: 2853 used (Note: This UGS number differs from the Air Force's specific overnight Shahed/imitator count and SDF's southern count).
Southern Front Specifics (SDF - Past 24hrs): >320 shellings (~1500 rounds), 510 kamikaze drones, >230 drone drops targeting Kherson, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. 23 KABs, ~100 NARs used against civilian/critical infrastructure.
Specific Russian Air/Missile/Drone Strikes (Past 24hrs / Ongoing - Various Sources - UPDATED):
Dnipro City (Overnight Shaheds - UA Confirmed/DSNS/Lysak/Prosecutor):
Casualties (Final Confirmed):4 civilians KIA (2m, 2f), 21 civilians WIA (aged 19-74). 13 remain hospitalized, 3 critical (incl. pregnant woman). Criminal investigation initiated for war crime (Art. 438). RU sources (Alex Parker Returns) claim strike reduced call center scams.
Damage (UA Confirmed): Extensive damage: Hotel-restaurant complex ("Caravella" feature destroyed/fire extinguished), 4 private homes destroyed, 10+ private homes damaged, garages, vehicle service station, multiple multi-story buildings, educational institution, administrative building, warehouse facilities, 21 vehicles damaged, motorcycles destroyed. 2 SES fire/rescue vehicles also damaged. Search/rescue concluded; fire suppression completed.
Kharkiv Oblast (Night Mar 28/29 - Syniehubov/OVA): Detailed impacts across multiple communities (Fedorivka, Borova, Kochetok, Mos'panove, Kupyansk, Liutivka, Vinnytski Ivany, Myrne) from Shaheds, shelling, MLRS, drone drops causing fires, damage to residential/commercial buildings, infrastructure, vehicles, and civilian stress reactions/injuries (39M WIA in Kupyansk, 1M WIA near Liutivka). Power outages reported affecting >7400 subscribers.
Sumy Oblast (UGS/Colonelcassad/UA Air Force): Ongoing KAB threat (06:58 UTC). Previous air strikes reported against Uhroidy, Naumivka, Myropilske, Krasnopillia, Petrushivka, Prokhody. Strikes near Lebedyn (Kh-59/69 from Su-57), Verkhnia Syrovatka (Kh-31 from Su-57), Yunakivka (OTRK, UMPK), Myropillia (UMPK). Kh-31 strike on Sumy city. Overnight Shahed/Gerbera strikes near Sumy city and Okhtyrka. Morning UMPK strikes reported (05:00 UTC).
Nikopol (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast - RU Claim - NEW): Pro-RU source (Lebedev via Basurin) claims morning FPV drone strike on SBU building. Claims emergency response observed (2 ambulances, 2 fire trucks), 3 casualties removed (status unknown). Claims SBU on 3rd floor, Police on 1st, equipment/data destroyed. Threatens future strikes on SBU/GUR locations. (RU CLAIM)
Donetsk Oblast (UGS): Air strikes reported against Novopil. UMPK strikes reported.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (UGS/ZOVA/Colonelcassad/SDF): Air strikes reported against Kam'ianske, Novoandriivka, Novodanylivka. UMPK strikes against Kamyshevakha, Orikhiv, Tavriiske. 484 total Russian strikes across 13 settlements (Past 24hrs - ZOVA). SDF confirms widespread drone/arty/air strikes in frontline areas.
Kherson Oblast (UGS/Colonelcassad/SDF): Air strike reported against Kozatske. Strikes reported in Kherson city. Army aviation strikes in Beryslav district. SDF confirms widespread drone/arty/air strikes in frontline areas.
Kyiv Oblast (KMVA/Colonelcassad): Overnight: 30 enemy UAVs detected in Kyiv's airspace and vicinity. 16 UAVs destroyed by air defense forces. Remaining UAVs were locationally lost or left airspace. No casualties or destruction reported within Kyiv city limits. Strikes reported in Zghurivka, Brovary, Vyshhorod, Bila Tserkva areas.
Black Sea:2 Russian Kalibr carriers, potential salvo up to 8 missiles.
Azov Sea: No Russian naval assets reported.
Mediterranean Sea:4 Russian ships present, 3 Kalibr carriers, potential salvo up to 26 missiles.
Ukrainian Counter-Strikes (Past 24hrs - UGS 06:00 UTC / Other Sources - UPDATED):
General (UGS): Aviation, missile troops, and artillery hit 9 RU concentration areas (personnel/equipment), 1 AD system, 1 C2 point, 2 artillery systems, and 2 other targets.
Velyka Novosilka (Donetsk - UA Claim - NEW): Reported airstrike on Russian Command Post (KP). (Visual)
Donbas Front (UA Claim - Butusov/Madyar - Mar 27): UA drone unit 'Ochi ta Zhalo' (Madyar) claims destruction/damage of 28 RU armored vehicles during 3 assaults, hitting 192 unique targets, and eliminating 60 RU personnel in 24hrs on Mar 27. (Visual)
Belgorod Oblast Interceptions (RU Claim - Unchanged): RU MoD claims 3 Ukrainian UAVs shot down overnight. (RU CLAIM)
II. Ground Combat Operations & Border Areas
Total Combat Clashes (Past 24hrs - UGS 06:00 UTC):183 combat clashes recorded across the front line.
Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy Border Operations (RU Territory / UA Ops):
Ukrainian Perspective (UGS 06:00 UTC / DShV - NEW):
Ukrainian Defense Forces continue operations in Kursk Oblast.
14 Russian assaults repelled in the area over the past 24 hours (UGS).
5 Russian POWs captured by UA DShV (+ allies) in Kursk Oblast. UA claims POWs reported mistreatment/threats in own units for refusing "meat assaults". (UA DShV Claim)
Russian forces conducted 28 air strikes (44 KABs) and 371 shelling attacks (16 MLRS) against the area in the past 24 hours (UGS).
Claims situation largely unchanged near Oleshnia; UA digging in, attempting nightly reinforcement (small groups 5-10 personnel) targeted by RU arty/drones; RU aviation active near Sadky. Claims significant UA UAV crew losses (3-6 crews daily). Claims UA attempting to hold Basovka (controlling ~1/4), reinforcing despite losses. Claims UA pulled back artillery south of Yunakovka, moved drone C2 into Yunakovka, assessing possible UA withdrawal prep. (RU CLAIM / ASSESSMENT)
Gogolevka (Kursk Oblast) confirmed liberated by RU forces (WarGonzo/RU MoD). (RU CLAIM)
RU forces moving towards Oleshnia from multiple sides following Gogolevka capture; fighting ongoing in Huyevo. (WarGonzo) (RU CLAIM)
Veselovka (Sumy Oblast) claimed captured by RU 1427 Regt yesterday (Mar 28). (Colonelcassad/The Wrong Side - Visual Claim) (RU CLAIM)
Claims UA continues attacks near Popovka/Demidovka despite losses; claims 7 UA armored vehicles destroyed yesterday. Claims UA shelling/drone attacks on Stroytel, no casualties reported. (RU CLAIM)
Fighting ongoing near Demidovka (situation clearer) and Popovka (VSU likely secured foothold, heavy fighting). (WarGonzo) (RU CLAIM / ASSESSMENT)
Russian Perspective/Claims (Bryansk - Dnevnik Desantnika): Claims continued observation of UA forces bringing equipment and personnel closer to the border. Claims continued UA shelling and drone attacks into Bryansk Oblast. (RU CLAIM)
Volyn/Polissia Directions (Northern Border - UGS): No signs of offensive grouping formation detected.
Kharkiv Direction (UGS / Syniehubov):4 Russian attacks repelled in the areas of Vovchansk and towards Kamyanka over the past 24 hours.
Kupyansk Direction (UGS / Syniehubov):3 Russian attacks occurred in the past 24 hours. UA forces repelled assaults near Zahryzove and towards Bohuslavka.
Lyman Direction (UGS):CRITICAL INTENSITY.16 Russian attacks occurred in the past 24 hours. RU forces attempted to penetrate UA defenses near Nadiya, Yampolivka, and towards Hrekivka, Nove, Novomykhailivka, Zelena Dolyna.
Siversk Direction (UGS):1 Russian attack repelled near Ivano-Darivka in the past 24 hours.
Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar Area - UGS / WarGonzo):4 Russian attacks occurred near Chasiv Yar and towards Bila Hora, Predtechyne in the past 24 hours. No significant Line of Contact changes reported; fighting continues within city limits and on flanks (WarGonzo assessment).
Toretsk Direction / Alexandrо-Kalyninske (UGS / WarGonzo / UA Claim - UPDATED):HIGH INTENSITY.20 Russian attacks occurred near Toretsk and towards Dyliivka and Shcherbynivka in the past 24 hours (UGS).
Belarusian POW: UA 100th Mech Bde captured Belarusian citizen (Ruslan Shustov) fighting for Russia. Claims RU command gave vague order to advance in Toretsk ruins, threatened execution for retreat. (Tsaplienko/UA Claim)
RU expanding control zone near Panteleimonivka; fighting ongoing within Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk) itself. (WarGonzo - RU Claim) (RU CLAIM)
Pokrovsk Direction (UGS / Slivocnhy Kapriz - RU Claim / WarGonzo - UPDATED):HIGHEST INTENSITY. Remains primary RU offensive focus. 73 Russian assault actions repelled near Panteleimonivka, Oleksandropil, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Novoserhiivka, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka, Kotlyarivka, Uspenivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka, and towards Kalynove in the past 24 hours.
RU Claims (NEW): Active fighting near Krasnoarmeisk (Pokrovsk). RU mechanized attack reported W of Zaporizhzhia village. RU claimed advance of 3.5km under UA fire towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, south of Kotlyarivka. RU claims expansion of control zone S of Krasnoarmeisk. Meeting engagements ongoing, UA counterattacks reported ineffective (WarGonzo). (RU CLAIM)
Novopavlivsk / Velykonovosilkivske Directions (UGS / WarGonzo):17 Russian attacks occurred near Kostiantynopil, Rozlyv, Dniproenerhiya in the past 24 hours (UGS). RU forces advancing towards Rozliv (WarGonzo - RU Claim). (RU CLAIM)
Huliaipole Direction (UGS / SDF):4 Russian attacks repelled near Pryvilne in the past 24 hours. (Confirmed by UGS & SDF).
Zaporizhzhia Direction (Orikhiv Area - UGS / SDF / TASS / WarGonzo - RU Claims - UPDATED):8 Russian assaults occurred attempting to advance towards Shcherbaky, Mali Shcherbaky, Mala Tokmachka, Stepove, Kamyanske, and north of Nesteryanka in the past 24 hours. All repelled (UGS/SDF).
RU Claims (NEW): Fighting continues in Shcherbaky. UA counter-attacks between Stepove and Shcherbaky are unsuccessful; RU holds initiative (Rogov via TASS / WarGonzo). (RU CLAIM / CONTRADICTS UA REPORTS)
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson - UGS / SDF):2 Russian attacks successfully repelled in the past 24 hours. Positional fighting continues. (Confirmed by UGS & SDF).
III. Other Military-Relevant Developments
Enemy Tactics/Capabilities & Claims:
Border Ops Claims (RU Sources): Claims UA digging in near Oleshnia, suffering daily drone crew losses (3-6), holding only part of Basovka, potentially preparing withdrawal. Claims UA continues attacks in Belgorod despite losses (7 AFV destroyed claimed). Claims UA build-up near Bryansk border. Claims capture of Veselovka (Sumy). Claims UA secured foothold in Popovka (Belgorod). (RU CLAIM / ASSESSMENT)
Artillery Tactics (RU MoD - NEW): Video claims D-30 howitzers used to target UA strongholds, dugouts, logistics, and provide suppression fire for assaults. Emphasis on camouflage. (RU CLAIM / VISUAL)
New Drone Development (RU Source - Basurin): Claims development of "Klyuch-Fortuna" FPV fixed-wing drone. Stated specs: range up to 50 km, cost <100k RUB, hand-launched. Claimed ~30 tested. (RU CLAIM)
Anti-Drone Training (RU Source - Colonelcassad - NEW): Fundraising appeal for consumables (clay targets, ammo) for anti-drone training for units pulled from frontline. Indicates focus on countering UA drone threat. (RU CLAIM / NEEDS)
Recruitment Ads (RU MoD / Alex Parker - NEW): Continued production of recruitment videos for contract service noted by RU bloggers. (RU INFO OPS)
Casualty Claims (RU Source): RU MoD continues reporting high Ukrainian casualty figures. RU bloggers report UA tank loss due to poor camouflage. (RU CLAIM)
Ukrainian Capabilities & Morale:
Enemy Losses Claim (UGS - 06:00 UTC): Claimed elimination of 1740 Russian personnel, destruction of 23 tanks, 34 AFVs, 64 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 3 AD systems, 164 OTR UAVs, 118 vehicles in the past 24 hours.
Enemy Losses Claim (SDF - South Only): Claimed elimination of 117 RU personnel, destruction of 2 tanks, 17 arty, 21 AFV/vehicles, 6 recon UAVs, plus other equipment (motorcycles, boats, antennae, dumps, shelters) in past 24 hrs. Claim 20 AFV, 4 tanks destroyed in past 5 days.
Drone Operations (UA Shadow Unit / Madyar Unit): Shadow unit claims destroying 2 RU tanks using drones. Madyar unit claims significant RU armor/personnel losses in Donbas (Mar 27). (Visual)
Equipment Needs (UA Sources - UPDATED): UA Drone unit (Shadow) requests drone batteries. Sternenko reports 1590 outstanding drone requests. RBC-Ukraine/Volunteers fundraising for field stretchers for multiple brigades (109, 143, 1 OShB). RU sources note UA crowdfunding needs (Dnevnik Desantnika / Dva Mayora - Kherson Arty Recon).
Information Operations & Propaganda:
RU Propaganda: Medical volunteer video ("Hero Z"). Claims targeting military facility (Yuzhmash) in Dnipro, blaming UA AD for civilian damage. Detailed strike chronicle (Colonelcassad). Claim of UA TCC forcibly detaining underage courier in Odesa. Claim Dnipro strike reduced call center scams. Recruitment videos. Claim UA tank loss due to poor camo. (RU CLAIM / INFO OPS)
UA Propaganda/Morale: Videos/posts showing captured RU POWs (Kursk, Toretsk - incl. Belarusian). Posts commemorating fallen soldiers (KMVA). National Minute of Silence reminders (UGS/OVA/Operatyvnyi ZSU). Posts highlighting UA drone/combat successes (Madyar, Shadow, SDF). Fundraising appeals emphasizing soldier needs. (UA INFO OPS / MORALE)
Internal Ukrainian Developments (NEW):
"Military Lawyers" Incident: Reports of confrontation involving individuals/vehicles labeled "Military Lawyers" potentially linked to resisting mobilization. Police investigating, UA Bar Assoc. distances itself. Linked to private security firm registered to Zaporizhzhia lawyer. (Shtirlits)
**IV. International Military Cooperation & Aid / Political
