Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 29, 2025, 06:56 UTC
(Incorporating updates received up to 06:56 UTC)
I. Air, Missile, Drone, and Naval Activity
Tactical Aviation Threat (UA Air Force - 06:11 UTC - NEW): Increased activity of Russian tactical aviation observed on the Eastern and Southeastern axes. Threat of air-launched weapon strikes declared.
Overall Russian Strikes (Night Mar 28/29 - UA Air Force 08:30 Local - NEW):
Total Launched:172 Shahed-type UAVs and various imitator drones launched from Millerovo, Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk (Russia), and Chauda (Crimea).
Interceptions (Confirmed):94 Shahed/other UAVs shot down across northern, eastern, and central Ukraine by aviation, ZRV, EW, and mobile fire groups.
Lost Track/No Impact:69 imitator drones were locationally lost without reported negative consequences.
Impacted Regions (Confirmed): Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy Oblasts suffered consequences from the attack.
Damage (UA Confirmed): Extensive damage: Hotel-restaurant complex ("Caravella" feature destroyed/fire extinguished), 4 private homes destroyed, 10+ private homes damaged, garages, vehicle service station, multiple multi-story buildings, educational institution, administrative building, warehouse facilities, 21 vehicles damaged, motorcycles destroyed. 2 SES fire/rescue vehicles also damaged. Search/rescue concluded; fire suppression completed. Criminal investigation initiated for war crime (Art. 438).
Kharkiv Oblast (Night Mar 28/29 - Syniehubov/OVA - NEW DETAILS):
Fedorivka (Zmiivska TH): Shahed strike caused fire (10m²), damaged roof/windows of outbuilding and residential house windows.
Borova (Zmiivska TH): Strike caused fire in warehouse (100m²), damaged warehouse, guard building windows, tractors, excavator, trucks.
Kochetok (Chuhuivska TH): Geran-2 hit enterprise territory, burned container, damaged windows/roof of production building, truck, car. Later shelling caused brush fire (50m²), damaged house windows/roof.
Mos'panove (Malynivska TH): Falling Shahed caused grass fire (40m²), damaged house roof/windows. 2 civilians (69M, 89F) suffered acute stress reaction.
Borova (Iziumskyi Dist): Shelling caused partial power outage (68 subscribers).
Liutivka (Zolochivska TH): Drone dropped munition on truck in field (1M preliminary WIA).
Vinnytski Ivany (Bohodukhivska TH): UAV strike damaged windows of 2 private homes.
Myrne (Kindrashivska TH): Shelling caused power outage in 8 settlements (incl. Kupyansk, others) affecting 7361 subscribers.
Sumy Oblast (UGS/Colonelcassad): Air strikes reported against Uhroidy, Naumivka, Myropilske, Krasnopillia, Petrushivka, Prokhody. Strikes reported near Lebedyn (Kh-59/69 from Su-57), Verkhnia Syrovatka (Kh-31 from Su-57), Yunakivka (OTRK, UMPK), Myropillia (UMPK). Kh-31 strike on Sumy city. Overnight Shahed/Gerbera strikes near Sumy city and Okhtyrka. Morning UMPK strikes reported (05:00 UTC).
Donetsk Oblast (UGS): Air strikes reported against Novopil. UMPK strikes reported in the oblast.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (UGS/ZOVA/Colonelcassad): Air strikes reported against Kam'ianske, Novoandriivka, Novodanylivka. UMPK strikes against Kamyshevakha, Orikhiv, Tavriiske. 484 total Russian strikes across 13 settlements (Past 24hrs - ZOVA).
Kherson Oblast (UGS/Colonelcassad): Air strike reported against Kozatske. Strikes reported in Kherson city. Army aviation strikes in Beryslav district.
Kyiv Oblast (KMVA/Colonelcassad): Overnight: 30 enemy UAVs detected in Kyiv's airspace and vicinity. 16 UAVs destroyed by air defense forces. Remaining UAVs were locationally lost or left airspace. No casualties or destruction reported within Kyiv city limits. Strikes reported in Zghurivka, Brovary, Vyshhorod, Bila Tserkva areas.
Black Sea:2 Russian Kalibr carriers, potential salvo up to 8 missiles.
Azov Sea: No Russian naval assets reported.
Mediterranean Sea:4 Russian ships present, 3 Kalibr carriers, potential salvo up to 26 missiles.
Ukrainian Counter-Strikes (Past 24hrs - UGS 06:00 UTC): Aviation, missile troops, and artillery hit 9 RU concentration areas (personnel/equipment), 1 AD system, 1 C2 point, 2 artillery systems, and 2 other targets.
Belgorod Oblast Interceptions (RU Claim - Unchanged): RU MoD claims 3 Ukrainian UAVs shot down overnight. (RU CLAIM)
II. Ground Combat Operations & Border Areas
Total Combat Clashes (Past 24hrs - UGS 06:00 UTC):183 combat clashes recorded across the front line.
Kursk/Belgorod Border Operations (RU Territory / UA Ops):
Ukrainian Perspective (UGS 06:00 UTC):
Ukrainian Defense Forces continue operations in Kursk Oblast.
14 Russian assaults repelled in the area over the past 24 hours.
Russian forces conducted 28 air strikes (44 KABs) and 371 shelling attacks (16 MLRS) against the area in the past 24 hours.
Russian Perspective (Kursk - Arkhangel Spetsnaza): Claims situation largely unchanged; UA digging in before Oleshnia, attempting nightly reinforcement (small groups 5-10 personnel) targeted by RU arty/drones; RU aviation active near Sadky. Claims significant UA UAV crew losses (3-6 crews daily). Claims UA attempting to hold Basovka (controlling ~1/4), reinforcing despite losses, to keep road to Loknya open. Claims UA pulled back artillery south of Yunakovka, moved drone C2 into Yunakovka, assessing possible UA withdrawal prep. (RU CLAIM / ASSESSMENT)
Russian Perspective (Belgorod - Dnevnik Desantnika - NEW): Claims UA continues attacks near Popovka/Demidovka despite losses; claims 7 UA armored vehicles destroyed yesterday. Claims UA shelling/drone attacks on Stroytel (Belgorod Oblast), no casualties reported. (RU CLAIM)
Bryansk Oblast Border (RU Claim - Dnevnik Desantnika - NEW): Claims continued observation of UA forces bringing equipment and personnel closer to the border. Claims continued UA shelling and drone attacks into Bryansk Oblast. (RU CLAIM)
Volyn/Polissia Directions (Northern Border - UGS): No signs of offensive grouping formation detected.
Kharkiv Direction (UGS / Syniehubov):4 Russian attacks repelled in the areas of Vovchansk and towards Kamyanka over the past 24 hours.
Kupyansk Direction (UGS / Syniehubov):3 Russian attacks occurred in the past 24 hours. UA forces repelled assaults near Zahryzove and towards Bohuslavka.
Lyman Direction (UGS):CRITICAL INTENSITY.16 Russian attacks occurred in the past 24 hours. RU forces attempted to penetrate UA defenses near Nadiya, Yampolivka, and towards Hrekivka, Nove, Novomykhailivka, Zelena Dolyna.
Siversk Direction (UGS):1 Russian attack repelled near Ivano-Darivka in the past 24 hours.
Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar Area - UGS):4 Russian attacks occurred near Chasiv Yar and towards Bila Hora, Predtechyne in the past 24 hours.
Toretsk Direction / Alexandrо-Kalyninske (UGS):HIGH INTENSITY.20 Russian attacks occurred near Toretsk and towards Dyliivka and Shcherbynivka in the past 24 hours.
Pokrovsk Direction (UGS / Slivocnhy Kapriz - RU Claim):HIGHEST INTENSITY. Remains primary RU offensive focus. 73 Russian assault actions repelled near Panteleimonivka, Oleksandropil, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Novoserhiivka, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka, Kotlyarivka, Uspenivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka, and towards Kalynove in the past 24 hours. (RU Claim - NEW): Active fighting near Krasnoarmeisk (Pokrovsk). RU mechanized attack reported W of Zaporizhzhia village. RU claimed advance of 3.5km under UA fire towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, south of Kotlyarivka. RU claims expansion of control zone S of Krasnoarmeisk. (RU CLAIM)
Novopavlivsk / Velykonovosilkivske Directions (UGS):17 Russian attacks occurred near Kostiantynopil, Rozlyv, Dniproenerhiya in the past 24 hours.
Huliaipole Direction (UGS):4 Russian attacks repelled near Pryvilne in the past 24 hours.
Zaporizhzhia Direction (Orikhiv Area - UGS / TASS - RU Claim):8 Russian assaults occurred attempting to advance towards Shcherbaky, Mali Shcherbaky, Mala Tokmachka, Stepove, Kamyanske, and north of Nesteryanka in the past 24 hours. (RU Claim - NEW): RU sources (Rogov via TASS) claim UA counter-attacks between Stepove and Shcherbaky are unsuccessful. (RU CLAIM)
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson - UGS):2 Russian attacks successfully repelled in the past 24 hours. Positional fighting continues.
III. Other Military-Relevant Developments
Enemy Tactics/Capabilities & Claims:
Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy Ops Claims (RU Sources): Claims UA digging in near Oleshnia, suffering daily drone crew losses (3-6), holding only part of Basovka, potentially preparing to withdraw artillery/drone C2 points. Claims UA continues attacks in Belgorod despite losses (7 AFV destroyed claimed). Claims UA build-up near Bryansk border. Continues claims of advances/heavy UA losses elsewhere. (RU CLAIM)
New Drone Development (RU Source - Basurin - NEW): Claims development of "Klyuch-Fortuna" FPV fixed-wing drone. Stated specs: range up to 50 km (vs <30km for standard FPVs), cost <100k RUB, hand-launched. Claimed ~30 tested in combat zone. (RU CLAIM)
Demining Tactics (RU Source - Dva Mayora): Observed use of detection dogs, drones, and remote-controlled vehicles (RCV) for demining operations (likely Kursk/Belgorod border area). (Visual)
Aircraft Production (RU Source - Poddybny): OAK delivered first 2025 batch of Su-35S; claims expanding Su-34/Su-57 production.
Air Defense Terminology (RU Source - Fighterbomber): Internal RU discussion highlights ambiguity and potential inflation in reporting related to the term "промах в норме" (miss in norm / acceptable miss) for air defense engagements, suggesting claimed intercepts might not always equate to confirmed destruction.
Offensive Claims (RU Sources): RU continues claims of offensives/advances on multiple axes (Pokrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kursk). (RU CLAIM)
Casualty Claims (RU Source): RU MoD continues reporting high Ukrainian casualty figures across multiple directions. (RU CLAIM)
Ukrainian Capabilities & Morale:
Enemy Losses Claim (UGS - 06:00 UTC): Claimed elimination of 1740 Russian personnel, destruction of 23 tanks, 34 AFVs, 64 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 3 AD systems, 164 OTR UAVs, 118 vehicles in the past 24 hours.
Drone Operations (UA Shadow Unit): Unit claims successful engagement and destruction of 2 Russian tanks attempting a breakthrough using drone support/strikes. (Visual)
Equipment Needs (UA Sources - UPDATED): UA Drone unit (Shadow) publicly requesting donations for drone batteries. Another UA figure (Sternenko) reports outstanding requests for 1590 drones from units, highlighting significant need. (Dnevnik Desantnika - RU Source reporting UA request / Shadow Unit / Sternenko)
Information Operations & Propaganda:
Medical Propaganda (RU Source - Colonelcassad): Video featuring female Russian medical volunteer presented as a "Hero Z", likely aimed at recruitment and justifying involvement.
Dnipro Strike Narrative (RU Sources): RU sources claim targeting military facility (Yuzhmash), blame UA air defense for civilian damage. (RU CLAIM / INFO OPS)
Strike Chronicle (RU Source - Colonelcassad): Detailed listing of claimed RU strikes across Ukraine, potentially aimed at demonstrating reach and impact. (INFO OPS)
IV. International Military Cooperation & Aid / Political Developments
IMF Aid (Confirmed): IMF Executive Board approved $400 million tranche for Ukraine under the EFF arrangement following the seventh review. (Shmyhal / IMF / RBC-Ukraine)
US Aid Terms & "Resource Deal" (WSJ/RVvoenkor - NEW): Reports suggest Ukraine is likely to refuse the proposed US "resource deal" linked to future aid, described as "extremely harsh" and requiring repayment potentially through control over resources/reconstruction. Advisor Mylovanov quoted saying UA parliament would "never accept" it. US experts cited expecting pressure on Kyiv to comply with Trump administration demands. (WSJ / RVvoenkor)
Energy Strike Moratorium Questioned (RBC-Ukraine - NEW): Discussion regarding alleged US-brokered 30-day moratorium on energy infrastructure strikes (start date disputed: Mar 18 RU / Mar 25 UA). Period 18-26 saw reduced RU energy strikes and UA restraint. Recent RU strikes (e.g., Poltava, Kherson) viewed as violation, potentially ending moratorium. Assessment suggests Russia lacks interest in real truce, seeking leverage (e.g., sanctions relief). (RBC-Ukraine)
Upcoming Meetings (Unchanged): Urgent Kyiv meeting (FRA, UK, UA+) anticipated; next Ramstein meeting (led by DE/UK) planned for April 2025.
Economic Pressure Proposal (Unchanged): US economists propose "Russian universal tariff" on oil/gas sales, payable to US Treasury, escalating weekly until peace deal, with secondary sanctions for non-compliance. (RBC-Ukraina / NYT)
