Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 29, 2025, 05:26 UTC
(Incorporating updates received up to 05:26 UTC)
I. Air, Missile, Drone, and Naval Activity
Naval Missile Threat (UA Assessment):
Black Sea:2 Russian Kalibr carriers deployed, potential salvo up to 8 missiles. (UGS, 06:00 Local / RBC-Ukraine)
Azov Sea: No Russian naval assets reported. (UGS, 06:00 Local / RBC-Ukraine)
Mediterranean Sea:4 Russian ships present, 3 Kalibr carriers, potential salvo up to 26 missiles. (UGS, 06:00 Local)
Kerch Strait Traffic (Mar 28): 2 vessels entered Black Sea (0 towards Bosphorus); 12 vessels entered Azov Sea (5 from Bosphorus). Russia continues disabling AIS (SOLAS violation). (UGS)
Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) Threat: Russian KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast reported ~02:01 UTC, Mar 29. Threat persists for frontline areas. (UA Air Force / RBC-Ukraine)
UAV Threat Status:
Threat of Shahed strike UAVs cleared across all oblasts as of 01:01 UTC, Mar 29. (UA Air Force / RBC-Ukraine)
Targeting (RU Claim): Russian sources claim strikes targeted the Yuzhmash plant and allege Ukrainian air defence downed a Shahed onto a residential building. (RU CLAIM - Contradicts UA Assessment)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast Strikes (Past 24hrs - UA ZOVA - NEW):
Total:484 Russian strikes reported across 13 settlements.
Impact: 9 reports of damage to apartments, private homes, vehicles, and infrastructure. No civilian casualties reported.
Luhansk Fire Cause (Russian Claim): Attributed to debris from 2 allegedly intercepted Ukrainian UAVs hitting a warehouse. No casualties claimed. (RU CLAIM)
Russian Air/Artillery Strike Claims (Tactical):
RU claim: Aircraft launched unguided rockets (NAR) hitting UA field ammo depot (Mar 29). (RU CLAIM)
RU claim: BM-21 Grad strike hit UA ammo transport near Toretsk. (RU CLAIM)
RU claim: Spetsnaz video shows targeting of alleged UA mortar position (Mar 29). (RU CLAIM / VISUAL)
RU claim: Video shows combat helicopter operations (likely Ka-52) employing flares in active threat environment over damaged landscape. (Colonelcassad / Visual) (RU CLAIM / VISUAL)
Russian Drone Development Claim (NEW): TASS reports creation of "Klyuch-Fortuna" FPV fixed-wing strike drone with alleged 50km range. (RU CLAIM)
Ukrainian Advance Assessment (Belgorod - NEW): Reuters, citing analyst Emil Kastehelmi (Black Bird Group), suggests Ukrainian forces likely advanced 3-4 km into Belgorod Oblast, potentially breaching the first Russian defensive line. Assessed operational goal is to divert Russian forces from Kursk Oblast. (Reuters / Tsaplienko)
Russian Advance Claims (Kursk):
RU MoD claims forces "confidently advancing towards the border" (Kursk Oblast). (RU CLAIM)
RU sources (Rybar/Previous) claim advance to the center of Guyevo (Kursk Oblast). (RU CLAIM)
RU forces confirmed capture of Hoholivka (Gogolevka) (Kursk Oblast, Mar 28).
RU VDV Claim (Kursk): Dnevnik Desantnika claims VDV assault units captured an important Ukrainian strongpoint in the Kursk border area. (RU CLAIM)
RU Claim (Kursk - Alaudinov): Apti Alaudinov (Akhmat commander) claims Ukrainian forces are in a critical situation, hold only 3 settlements in Kursk Oblast, and face critical personnel/logistics issues. (TASS) (RU CLAIM)
RU MoD claims capture of Ukrainian POWs and trophies (Kursk border). (RU CLAIM / VISUAL)
Ukrainian Equipment Loss Claim: Russian sources claim destruction of a Ukrainian M109A6 Paladin SPG (Kursk Oblast). (RU CLAIM / VISUAL)
Ukrainian Advance Confirmed (ISW, Mar 29 Pub): Confirmed UA advances into eastern Popovka (NW Belgorod Oblast).
Belgorod Fighting: Russian sources (Rybar/Previous) report continued fighting in Demydovka and Popovka, claiming 7 Ukrainian vehicles destroyed on Mar 28. (RU CLAIM)
Belgorod Shelling (RU Claim - NEW): Rybar reports Ukrainian shelling targeted Golovchino, Ryabiki, Gruzskoye, Ilek-Penkovka in Belgorod Oblast. (RU CLAIM)
Alleged Ukrainian Units (Belgorod - RU Claim - NEW): RU source NgP raZVedka claims identifying UA units near Myropilske/Velykyi Prikol/Petrushevka: 122 TDF Bde (1st echelon), 2nd Mech Bn/47th Mech Bde, assault coy/24th Assault Bn "Aidar" (conducting breaches), 17th Tank Bde, 17th Bde/NGU (follow-on forces). Claims RU forces targeting these units. (RU CLAIM)
Sumy Border Claim: RU sources (Rybar/Previous) claim capture of Veselovka (Sumy Oblast border area). (RU CLAIM - Requires Verification)
Alleged Ukrainian Tactics (RU Claim): Russian sapper commander claims retreating Ukrainian forces are mining residential houses in Kursk Oblast with motion-sensor mines. (TASS) (RU CLAIM - Potential LOAC / Propaganda)
Confirmed Ukrainian HIMARS Strike (Kursk, Mar 26-27): Eliminated Russian Rosgvardia Major Marat Tibilov near Cherkasske-Porechne.
Bryansk Border Area (RU Assessment - NEW): Rybar notes ongoing Ukrainian shelling (mortars, drones) countered by Russian forces/border guards. Assessed as lower intensity than Kursk/Belgorod but not calm.
Kupiansk / Kharkiv Direction:
Russian Claim (Oskil R. Right Bank): RU sources (Rybar/Previous) claim capture of Krasne Pershe (Kharkiv Oblast). Rybar suggests potential RU aim to move NW along Oskil's right bank to pressure UA rear near Belgorod border from the south. (RU CLAIM/Assessment)
Russian Claims (Mar 28): Advances claimed: entry into Mala Shapkovka, full control of Kondrashivka, advance across Velykyi Burluk road, entry into Tyshchenkivka. (RU CLAIM)
ISW Assessment (Mar 29 Pub): Assessed RU advances east of Oskil River (near Synkivka, Kyslivka, Zahryzove).
Lyman Direction:CRITICAL INTENSITY.
Russian Advance Claims (NEW - RU Source Dnevnik Desantnika/Z Komitet):
Expansion of bridgehead claimed on right bank of Zherebets River.
Advance near Makeevka towards Hrekivka (200x200m claimed).
Advance from Ivanivka towards Novoie and Katerynivka (4.5km claimed, incl. forests/gully).
Assault reportedly started on large UA strongpoint near Novoie.
Assault reportedly started in Katerynivka.
Claimed advance near Novolyubivka.
Full clearing claimed of Yar Dalnyi (fortified area E of Yampolivka), enabling RU advance to northern edge of Torske.
RU MoD claims inflicting over 520 Ukrainian KIA/WIA in 24hrs across its AoR ("Center" Group). (RU CLAIM)
RU UAVs allegedly destroyed 2 UA UAV C2 posts SE of Zelena Dolyna. (RU CLAIM)
RU UAV allegedly destroyed UA pickup with personnel in Torske center. (RU CLAIM)
Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar Area):
RU VDV Claims: Dnevnik Desantnika claims VDV air defense destroyed a Ukrainian drone near Chasiv Yar and VDV forces discovered a large, multi-level underground Ukrainian fortification complex ("anthill") within the "Chasovoyarets" recreation base area. (RU CLAIM)
Toretsk Direction / Alexandrо-Kalyninske:HIGH INTENSITY.
Russian Offensive Claim: RU sources (Rybar/Previous) report ongoing offensive battles near Panteleimonivka and Alexandropol, and east towards Tarasivka. (RU CLAIM)
Russian Advance Confirmed (ISW, Mar 29 Pub): Confirmed RU advances near the Tsentralna mine.
Russian Casualty Claim ("South" Group): RU MoD claims inflicting significant UA losses (part of up to 260 total) in its AoR (incl. Toretsk/Pokrovsk/Huliaipole). (RU CLAIM)
Russian Advance Claim (NEW - RU Source Map): Z Komitet claims RU advances near Katerynivka. (RU CLAIM / MAP)
Russian Casualty Claims ("Center" & "South" Groups): RU MoD claims inflicting significant UA losses (combined >780 KIA/WIA claimed by both groups across multiple directions). (RU CLAIM)
Novopavlivsk / Velykonovosilkivske Directions:
Russian Advance Confirmed (ISW, Mar 29 Pub): Confirmed RU advances near Kurakhove and north of Andriivka.
Russian Casualty Claim ("South" Group): Included in the up to 260 KIA/WIA claimed. (RU CLAIM)
RU sources report ongoing attacks on Vesele (RU CLAIM).
Zaporizhzhia Direction (Orikhiv/Huliaipole):
High Strike Intensity: 484 RU strikes reported in 24hrs (see Section I).
Russian Offensive Claim: RU sources (Rybar/Previous) claim a push from Mali Shcherbaky towards Shcherbaky involving VDV elements (7th Guards Air Assault Division). Described as heavy, bloody fighting. (RU CLAIM)
Russian Advance Claim (Lobkove): Occupation official Rogov claims Russian forces advanced inside the village of Lobkove. (TASS) (RU CLAIM)
Russian Advance Confirmed (ISW, Mar 29 Pub): Confirmed RU advances in fields north of Zherebyanky.
Huliaipole: Previous RU claims of breaking into Vilne Pole (RU CLAIM).
Russian Casualty Claim ("South" Group): Likely included in the up to 260 KIA/WIA claimed. (RU CLAIM)
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): Positional fighting.
III. Other Military-Relevant Developments
Enemy Tactics/Capabilities & Claims:
Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy Ops Claims: RU claims advances (Guyevo, Veselovka, Krasne Pershe), capture of strongpoint (Kursk), inflicting heavy UA losses, POW capture, destruction of UA Paladin. Alaudinov claims UA holds only 3 villages in Kursk & faces critical situation. Notes VDV involvement. Reports minor activity on Bryansk border. Claims specific UA units identified in Belgorod border area. (RU CLAIM)
Lyman Ops Claims: RU claims expansion of bridgehead, multiple small advances (Makeevka, Ivanivka directions), clearing of fortified area (Yar Dalnyi), start of assaults (Novoie strongpoint, Katerynivka), destruction of UA UAV C2 posts and vehicle. (RU CLAIM)
Chasiv Yar Area Claims: RU VDV claim drone kill and discovery of large underground UA base. (RU CLAIM)
Offensive Claims: RU claims active offensives near Alexandropol/Panteleimonivka (Toretsk) and towards Shcherbaky (Zaporizhzhia, involving VDV). (RU CLAIM)
Casualty Claims: RU MoD continues reporting high Ukrainian casualty figures ("Center" Group >520 KIA/WIA; "South" Group up to 260 KIA/WIA) across multiple directions in 24hrs. (RU CLAIM)
Drone Development Claim: Alleged creation of "Klyuch-Fortuna" FPV fixed-wing drone (50km range). (RU CLAIM)
Improvised Armor: Widespread use of improvised cage armor ("cope cages", "mangalostroenie") observed on Russian tanks and armored vehicles in recent imagery, indicating adaptation to persistent drone threats. (Colonelcassad / Visual)
Alleged UA Mining Tactics (RU Claim): RU claims retreating UA forces mine residential buildings in Kursk Oblast with motion-sensor mines. (TASS) (RU CLAIM)
Unguided Rocket Air Strikes: RU claim successful use of NAR from aircraft against ground targets. (RU CLAIM)
UR-77 Use: Confirmed use against UA stronghold (Pokrovsk, Mar 28).
Command & Control / Strategic Developments:
Ukrainian Command: Andriy Hnatov appointed Chief of General Staff (Mar 28).
Russian Offensive Preparations (UA Assessment): Intel indicates RU preparations for potential new offensives targeting Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
Logistics & Personnel:
Ukrainian Personnel (RU Claim): Anecdotal RU report claims captured UA POWs in Kursk border area were recently drafted. (RU CLAIM)
Russian Engineering: Road construction continues in occupied Donetsk.
Russian Recruitment/Losses/Internal:
Kursk Assault Group Losses (RU Anecdotal): RU soldier reports high attrition (4 survivors) in own group during Kursk operation. (RU CLAIM / SOURCE REPORT)
Defense Industry Figure Incident: Former "Telta" plant figure Alexei Vysokov recaptured, returned to pre-trial detention.
FSB Counter-Subversion (Krasnodar - RU PROPAGANDA): RU source circulates video of FSB detaining a man who allegedly made anti-Russian statements online while intoxicated, followed by a forced apology. Used as internal propaganda/deterrent.
Russian Crowdfunding: Ongoing appeals suggest reliance on non-standard channels for tactical equipment.
Zaporizhzhia NPP (ZNPP) Status: ZNPP Director claims a cooling tower damaged in previous alleged Ukrainian attacks will be restored (preliminary estimate). (TASS) (RUSSIAN STATEMENT)
IV. International Military Cooperation & Aid / Political Developments
Intelligence/Production: Ukraine secured expanded access to partner intel/ammo. Domestic AD system production agreements; artillery production licenses sought.
US Aid Terms: Refusal of debt-based aid reiterated; US indicated future aid may not be free.
US-Ukraine Minerals/Economic Deal Controversy (RU Amplification): Russian sources (TASS citing WSJ) amplify reports alleging the Trump administration is pushing for a deal granting Washington control over key Ukrainian economic projects, linked to aid conditions. Ukrainian officials reportedly view terms as unacceptable. (RUSSIAN AMPLIFICATION of US MEDIA REPORT - Potential Info Ops)
Economic Pressure Proposal (NEW): US economists (Hubbard/Wolfram via NYT) propose a "Russian universal tariff" on all RU oil/gas sales, payable to the US Treasury, increasing weekly until a peace deal is reached. Non-payment would trigger secondary sanctions on buyers, shippers, insurers. (RBC-Ukraina / NYT)
Information Operations & Propaganda:
Trump Statement (UA Interpretation): Trump comments on "progress" towards settlement but notes "ill-will" and acknowledges Iranian drone use (Shaheds), framed by UA source as unsurprising/late discovery. Potential indicator of shifting US political winds or negotiation framing.
Putin's Negotiation Framing: ISW assesses Putin aims to portray Ukrainian government as illegitimate/unable to negotiate, seeking to impose maximalist demands.
Sudzha GIS Narrative: RU sources (Rybar/Previous) blame Ukraine (using HIMARS/Western intel/French satellites/UK specialists) for Sudzha strike to disrupt gas supplies/justify withdrawal from agreements. (RU CLAIM / INFO OPS)
Dnipro Strike Narrative: RU sources claim targeting Yuzhmash military facility, blame UA air defense for civilian damage. (RU CLAIM / INFO OPS)
Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra Narrative: RU sources frame actions as anti-Orthodox.
POW Abuse Claims: RU sources disseminate alleged testimony of mistreatment in Ukrainian captivity.
Kursk Mining Narrative (RU CLAIM): RU sources disseminate claims of UA forces mining civilian homes with motion sensors
