Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 29, 2025, 04:56 UTC

(Incorporating updates received up to 04:56 UTC)

I. Air, Missile, Drone, and Naval Activity

• Naval Missile Threat (UA Assessment):
  • Black Sea: 2 Russian Kalibr carriers deployed, potential salvo up to 8 missiles. (UGS, 06:00 Local / RBC-Ukraine)
  • Azov Sea: No Russian naval assets reported. (UGS, 06:00 Local / RBC-Ukraine)
  • Mediterranean Sea: 4 Russian ships present, 3 Kalibr carriers, potential salvo up to 26 missiles. (UGS, 06:00 Local)
  • Kerch Strait Traffic (Mar 28): 2 vessels entered Black Sea (0 towards Bosphorus); 12 vessels entered Azov Sea (5 from Bosphorus). Russia continues disabling AIS (SOLAS violation). (UGS)
• Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) Threat: Russian KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast reported ~02:01 UTC, Mar 29. Threat persists for frontline areas. (UA Air Force / RBC-Ukraine)
• UAV Threat Status:
  • Threat of Shahed strike UAVs cleared across all oblasts as of 01:01 UTC, Mar 29. (UA Air Force / RBC-Ukraine)
  • Overnight Strikes (RU Claim - Rybar/Previous): Russian sources claim widespread "Geran" (Shahed) strikes targeted objects in Dnipropetrovsk (reporting powerful secondary detonations), Kyiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kharkiv, Sumy, Mykolaiv, Cherkasy, Poltava, and Chernihiv Oblasts. (RU CLAIM)
  • Belgorod Oblast Interceptions (RU Claim - NEW): RU MoD claims 3 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Belgorod Oblast overnight. (RU CLAIM)
  • Stroitel (Belgorod) Attack (RU Claim - NEW): Rybar reports a Ukrainian UAV attacked the town of Stroitel overnight. (RU CLAIM)
• Dnipro Attack Aftermath (Mar 28 - UPDATED):
  • Casualties (Final Confirmed - UA DSNS/RBC-Ukraina): 4 civilians KIA, 21 civilians WIA (increased from 19).
  • Damage (UA Confirmed - DSNS/RBC-Ukraina): Extensive damage confirmed: Hotel-restaurant complex, 11 private homes, garages, vehicle service station, multi-story buildings, 21 vehicles. 2 SES fire/rescue vehicles also damaged during response. Search/rescue concluded; fire suppression completed (>150 personnel, 40 units involved).
  • Targeting (UA Confirmed): Confirmed Russian drone strikes deliberately targeted civilian infrastructure.
  • Targeting (RU Claim): Russian sources claim strikes targeted the Yuzhmash plant and allege Ukrainian air defence downed a Shahed onto a residential building. (RU CLAIM - Contradicts UA Assessment)
• Luhansk Fire Cause (Russian Claim): Attributed to debris from 2 allegedly intercepted Ukrainian UAVs hitting a warehouse. No casualties claimed. (RU CLAIM)
• Russian Air/Artillery Strike Claims (Tactical):
  • RU claim: Aircraft launched unguided rockets (NAR) hitting UA field ammo depot (Mar 29). (RU CLAIM)
  • RU claim: BM-21 Grad strike hit UA ammo transport near Toretsk. (RU CLAIM)
  • RU claim: Spetsnaz video shows targeting of alleged UA mortar position (Mar 29). (RU CLAIM / VISUAL)

II. Ground Combat Operations & Border Areas

• Kursk/Belgorod Border Operations (RU Territory): INTENSIFIED ACTIVITY & RUSSIAN CLAIMS
  • Russian Advance Claims:
    • RU MoD claims forces "confidently advancing towards the border" (Kursk Oblast). (RU CLAIM)
    • RU sources (Rybar/Previous) claim advance to the center of Guyevo (Kursk Oblast). (RU CLAIM)
    • RU forces confirmed capture of Hoholivka (Gogolevka) (Kursk Oblast, Mar 28).
    • RU VDV Claim (Kursk - NEW): Dnevnik Desantnika claims VDV assault units captured an important Ukrainian strongpoint in the Kursk border area. (RU CLAIM)
    • RU Claim (Kursk): Apti Alaudinov (Akhmat commander) claims Ukrainian forces only hold 3 settlements in Kursk Oblast and face critical personnel/logistics issues. (TASS) (RU CLAIM)
    • RU MoD claims capture of Ukrainian POWs and trophies (Kursk border). (RU CLAIM / VISUAL)
  • Ukrainian Equipment Loss Claim: Russian sources claim destruction of a Ukrainian M109A6 Paladin SPG (Kursk Oblast). (RU CLAIM / VISUAL)
  • Ukrainian Advance Confirmed (ISW, Mar 29 Pub): Confirmed UA advances into eastern Popovka (NW Belgorod Oblast).
  • Belgorod Fighting: Russian sources (Rybar/Previous) report continued fighting in Demydovka and Popovka, claiming 7 Ukrainian vehicles destroyed on Mar 28. (RU CLAIM)
  • Belgorod Shelling (RU Claim - NEW): Rybar reports Ukrainian shelling targeted Golovchino, Ryabiki, Gruzskoye, Ilek-Penkovka in Belgorod Oblast. (RU CLAIM)
  • Sumy Border Claim: RU sources (Rybar/Previous) claim capture of Veselovka (Sumy Oblast border area). (RU CLAIM - Requires Verification)
  • Alleged Ukrainian Tactics (RU Claim): Russian sapper commander claims retreating Ukrainian forces are mining residential houses in Kursk Oblast with motion-sensor mines. (TASS) (RU CLAIM - Potential LOAC / Propaganda)
  • Confirmed Ukrainian HIMARS Strike (Kursk, Mar 26-27): Eliminated Russian Rosgvardia Major Marat Tibilov near Cherkasske-Porechne.
• Bryansk Border Area (NEW - RU Assessment): Rybar notes ongoing Ukrainian shelling (mortars, drones) countered by Russian forces/border guards. Assessed as lower intensity than Kursk/Belgorod but not calm.
• Kupiansk / Kharkiv Direction:
  • Russian Claim (Oskil R. Right Bank): RU sources (Rybar/Previous) claim capture of Krasne Pershe (Kharkiv Oblast). Rybar suggests potential RU aim to move NW along Oskil's right bank to pressure UA rear near Belgorod border from the south. (RU CLAIM/Assessment)
  • Russian Claim: Claim forces secured positions near Topoli (Kharkiv border area). (RU CLAIM)
  • Russian Claims (Mar 28): Advances claimed: entry into Mala Shapkovka, full control of Kondrashivka, advance across Velykyi Burluk road, entry into Tyshchenkivka. (RU CLAIM)
  • ISW Assessment (Mar 29 Pub): Assessed RU advances east of Oskil River (near Synkivka, Kyslivka, Zahryzove).
• Lyman Direction: CRITICAL INTENSITY.
  • Russian Advance Claim (NEW - RU Source Map): Z Komitet claims RU advances near Makeevka and Novolyubivka. (RU CLAIM / MAP)
  • Russian Casualty Claim ("Center" Group): RU MoD claims inflicting over 520 Ukrainian KIA/WIA in 24hrs across its AoR (incl. Lyman/Pokrovsk). (RU CLAIM)
  • ISW Assessment (Mar 29 Pub): Confirms assessed RU advances near Terny.
• Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar Area):
  • RU VDV Claims (NEW): Dnevnik Desantnika claims VDV air defense destroyed a Ukrainian drone near Chasiv Yar and VDV forces discovered a large, multi-level underground Ukrainian fortification complex ("anthill") within the "Chasovoyarets" recreation base area. (RU CLAIM)
• Toretsk Direction / Alexandrо-Kalyninske: HIGH INTENSITY.
  • Russian Offensive Claim: RU sources (Rybar/Previous) report ongoing offensive battles near Panteleimonivka and Alexandropol, and east towards Tarasivka. (RU CLAIM)
  • Russian Advance Confirmed (ISW, Mar 29 Pub): Confirmed RU advances near the Tsentralna mine.
  • Russian Casualty Claim ("South" Group): RU MoD claims inflicting significant UA losses (part of up to 260 total) in its AoR (incl. Toretsk/Pokrovsk/Huliaipole). (RU CLAIM)
• Pokrovsk Direction: HIGHEST INTENSITY. Remains primary RU offensive focus.
  • Russian Advance Claim (NEW - RU Source Map): Z Komitet claims RU advances near Katerynivka. (RU CLAIM / MAP)
  • Russian Casualty Claims ("Center" & "South" Groups): RU MoD claims inflicting significant UA losses (combined >780 KIA/WIA claimed by both groups across multiple directions). (RU CLAIM)
• Novopavlivsk / Velykonovosilkivske Directions:
  • Russian Advance Confirmed (ISW, Mar 29 Pub): Confirmed RU advances near Kurakhove and north of Andriivka.
  • Russian Casualty Claim ("South" Group): Included in the up to 260 KIA/WIA claimed. (RU CLAIM)
  • RU sources report ongoing attacks on Vesele (RU CLAIM).
• Zaporizhzhia Direction (Orikhiv/Huliaipole):
  • Russian Offensive Claim: RU sources (Rybar/Previous) claim a push from Mali Shcherbaky towards Shcherbaky involving VDV elements (7th Guards Air Assault Division). Described as heavy, bloody fighting. (RU CLAIM)
  • Russian Advance Claim (Lobkove): Occupation official Rogov claims Russian forces advanced inside the village of Lobkove. (TASS) (RU CLAIM)
  • Russian Advance Claim (Near Dnipronerhii): Claim forces improved positions near "Dnipronerhii" (Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia border). (RU CLAIM - Requires Verification)
  • Russian Advance Confirmed (ISW, Mar 29 Pub): Confirmed RU advances in fields north of Zherebyanky.
  • Huliaipole: Previous RU claims of breaking into Vilne Pole (RU CLAIM).
  • Russian Casualty Claim ("South" Group): Likely included in the up to 260 KIA/WIA claimed. (RU CLAIM)
• Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): Positional fighting.

III. Other Military-Relevant Developments

• Enemy Tactics/Capabilities & Claims:
  • Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy Ops Claims: RU claims advances (Guyevo, Veselovka, Krasne Pershe), capture of strongpoint (Kursk), inflicting heavy UA losses, POW capture, destruction of UA Paladin. Alaudinov claims UA holds only 3 villages in Kursk. Notes VDV involvement. Reports minor activity on Bryansk border. (RU CLAIM)
  • Chasiv Yar Area Claims: RU VDV claim drone kill and discovery of large underground UA base. (RU CLAIM)
  • Offensive Claims: RU claims active offensives near Alexandropol/Panteleimonivka (Toretsk) and towards Shcherbaky (Zaporizhzhia, involving VDV). (RU CLAIM)
  • Casualty Claims: RU MoD continues reporting high Ukrainian casualty figures ("Center" Group >520 KIA/WIA; "South" Group up to 260 KIA/WIA) across multiple directions in 24hrs. (RU CLAIM)
  • Improvised Armor: Widespread use of improvised cage armor ("cope cages", "mangalostroenie") observed on Russian tanks and armored vehicles in recent imagery, indicating adaptation to persistent drone threats. (Colonelcassad / Visual)
  • Alleged UA Mining Tactics (RU Claim): RU claims retreating UA forces mine residential buildings in Kursk Oblast with motion-sensor mines. (TASS) (RU CLAIM)
  • Sniper/Recon Focus: Recent RU imagery shows emphasis on specialized ghillie suits, camouflaged positions, suppressed weapons.
  • Unguided Rocket Air Strikes: RU claim successful use of NAR from aircraft against ground targets. (RU CLAIM)
  • UR-77 Use: Confirmed use against UA stronghold (Pokrovsk, Mar 28).
• Command & Control / Strategic Developments:
  • Ukrainian Command: Andriy Hnatov appointed Chief of General Staff (Mar 28).
  • Russian Offensive Preparations (UA Assessment): Intel indicates RU preparations for potential new offensives targeting Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
• Logistics & Personnel:
  • Ukrainian Personnel (RU Claim): Anecdotal RU report claims captured UA POWs in Kursk border area were recently drafted. (RU CLAIM)
  • Russian Engineering: Road construction continues in occupied Donetsk.
  • Russian Recruitment/Losses/Internal:
    • Kursk Assault Group Losses (RU Anecdotal): RU soldier reports high attrition (4 survivors) in own group during Kursk operation. (RU CLAIM / SOURCE REPORT)
    • Defense Industry Figure Incident: Former "Telta" plant figure Alexei Vysokov recaptured, returned to pre-trial detention.
    • FSB Counter-Intelligence (St. Petersburg): Russian citizen detained for alleged treason (supporting Ukraine/GUR). Highlights internal security focus.
    • FSB Counter-Subversion (Krasnodar - NEW / RU PROPAGANDA): RU source circulates video of FSB detaining a man who allegedly made anti-Russian statements online while intoxicated, followed by a forced apology. Used as internal propaganda/deterrent.
  • Russian Crowdfunding: Ongoing appeals suggest reliance on non-standard channels for tactical equipment.
• Civilian Impact (Occupied Territories): RU sources claim Ukrainian kamikaze drone injured civilian driver on Yasynuvata-Donetsk road. (RU CLAIM)
• Zaporizhzhia NPP (ZNPP) Status: ZNPP Director claims a cooling tower damaged in previous alleged Ukrainian attacks will be restored (preliminary estimate). (TASS) (RUSSIAN STATEMENT)

IV. International Military Cooperation & Aid / Political Developments

• Upcoming Meetings: Urgent Kyiv meeting (FRA, UK, UA+) anticipated; next Ramstein meeting Apr 11.
• Intelligence/Production: Ukraine secured expanded access to partner intel/ammo. Domestic AD system production agreements; artillery production licenses sought.
• US Aid Terms: Refusal of debt-based aid reiterated; US indicated future aid may not be free.
  • US-Ukraine Minerals/Economic Deal Controversy (RU Amplification - UPDATED): Russian sources (TASS citing WSJ) amplify reports alleging the Trump administration is pushing for a deal granting Washington control over key Ukrainian economic projects, linked to aid conditions. Ukrainian officials reportedly view terms as unacceptable. (RUSSIAN AMPLIFICATION of US MEDIA REPORT - Potential Info Ops)
• Information Operations & Propaganda:
  • Trump Statement (UA Interpretation - NEW): Trump comments on "progress" towards settlement but notes "ill-will" and acknowledges Iranian drone use (Shaheds), framed by UA source as unsurprising/late discovery. Potential indicator of shifting US political winds or negotiation framing.
  • Putin's Negotiation Framing: ISW assesses Putin aims to portray Ukrainian government as illegitimate/unable to negotiate, seeking to impose maximalist demands.
  • Sudzha GIS Narrative: RU sources (Rybar/Previous) blame Ukraine (using HIMARS/Western intel/French satellites/UK specialists) for Sudzha strike to disrupt gas supplies/justify withdrawal from agreements. (RU CLAIM / INFO OPS)
  • Dnipro Strike Narrative: RU sources claim targeting Yuzhmash military facility, blame UA air defense for civilian damage. (RU CLAIM / INFO OPS)
  • Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra Narrative: RU sources frame actions as anti-Orthodox.
  • POW Abuse Claims: RU sources disseminate alleged testimony of mistreatment in Ukrainian captivity.
  • Kursk Mining Narrative (RU CLAIM): RU sources disseminate claims of UA forces mining civilian homes with motion sensors during withdrawal. (RU CLAIM / INFO OPS / Potential LOAC Violation Claim)

V. Recent Historical Context (Relevant Confirmed/Claimed Events - Previous Updates)

• Confirmed Ukrainian Strikes (Past Week): HIMARS strike eliminating RU Major Tibilov (Mar 26-27, Kursk); Strike on RU Command Post (Kursk Oblast, Mar 26).
• Sudzha GIS Strike (Mar 28): Significant damage confirmed. Russia attributes to UA HIMARS (RU Claim).
• Massive Shahed Attacks (Night Mar 26-27): Caused significant civilian infrastructure damage/casualties (Kharkiv, Zolochiv, Dnipro).
• High Ground Combat Intensity (Late March): Primary RU focus areas: Pokrovsk, Lyman, Kupyansk, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Zaporizhzhia (West), border areas.
• Kursk/Belgorod Border (Mar 28): Russia confirmed capture of Hoholivka (Kursk). Intense fighting continues. New RU Claims (Mar 29): Advance in Guyevo (Kursk), capture of Veselovka (Sumy), capture of UA strongpoint (Kursk). (RU Claims)
• Crimea Strikes (Mar 27 Claim): UA GUR claimed drone strikes on RU AD/logistics assets.
• Kherson Civilian Casualties (Mar 27): 2 KIA, 6 WIA due to RU shelling/drones.
• Orikhiv Direction Advance Claim (Mar 27 - RU): Claimed >2.5km advance E of Kam'yanske to Shcherbaky. New RU Claims (Mar 29): Offensive push towards Shcherbaky involving VDV; advance inside Lobkove. (RU Claim)
• International Planning (Mar 27): FR/UK/DE military leaders visit Kyiv; Ramstein set for Apr 11.