Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 29, 2025, 01:56 UTC

(Incorporating updates received up to 01:56 UTC)

I. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity

• UAV Threat Ended: Threat of Shahed strike UAVs cleared across all oblasts as of 01:01 UTC, Mar 29 (Ukrainian Air Force / RBC-Ukraine). This follows a period of diminished activity overnight.
  • Previous Activity (Recap): Minimal UAVs tracked late Mar 28 over Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Sumy Oblasts. Air alerts ended in Kyiv (00:18 UTC) and Zaporizhzhia (23:53 UTC, Mar 28). Possible Shahed interception reported over Kyiv late Mar 28.
• Dnipro Attack Aftermath (Mar 28 - Civilian Targeting Confirmed):
  • Targeting: Confirmed Russian drone strikes deliberately targeted civilian infrastructure (restaurant complex, private homes, multi-story residential buildings).
  • Casualties (Final Confirmed): 4 civilians KIA, 19 civilians WIA.
  • Damage: Extensive damage to multiple residential buildings, homes, vehicles, service stations. Large fire extinguished at Bartolommeo restaurant complex. Search/rescue concluded. Evidence documentation ongoing.
• Luhansk Fire Cause (Russian Claim): RU sources attribute large warehouse fire to debris from 2 allegedly intercepted Ukrainian UAVs. No casualties claimed. (RU CLAIM)
• Russian Air Strike Claim (Tactical - Mar 29): Video shared by RU sources (Voenkor DV, ~01:05 UTC) purportedly shows a Russian aircraft launching unguided aerial rockets (NAR) using a loft maneuver ("с кабрирования"), resulting in one rocket hitting and detonating a Ukrainian field ammunition depot. Objective control (BDA via drone) claimed. (RU CLAIM - Tactical Event)
• Russian Artillery Strike Claim (Toretsk Direction): RU sources claim a BM-21 Grad strike hit a Ukrainian ammunition transport vehicle near Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk), causing secondary explosions. (RU CLAIM)

II. Ground Combat Operations & Border Areas

• Kursk/Belgorod Border Operations (RU Territory):
  • Ukrainian Advance Confirmed (ISW, Mar 29 Pub): Confirmed UA advances into eastern Popovka (NW Belgorod Oblast).
  • Russian Advances Confirmed (ISW, Mar 29 Pub): Confirmed RU advances near Guyevo (Kursk Oblast).
  • Confirmed Ukrainian HIMARS Strike (Kursk, Mar 26-27): Eliminated Russian Rosgvardia Major Marat Tibilov ("Hero of Russia") near Cherkasske-Porechne.
  • Intense Fighting: Clashes continue. UGS reported 8 engagements (Kursk direction, Mar 27).
• Kupiansk Direction (Significant Russian Claims & Pressure):
  • Russian Claims (Mar 28): Significant advances claimed by "Zapad" Group on Dvurichanskyi bridgehead: entry into Mala Shapkovka, full control of Kondrashivka, advance across Velykyi Burluk road, entry into Tyshchenkivka. Attributed by RU to potential UA redeployments. (RU CLAIM - Verification Required)
  • ISW Assessment (Mar 29 Pub): Intense fighting, assessed RU advances east of Oskil River (near Synkivka, Kyslivka, Zahryzove). Previous RU claim on Pershotravneve reiterated.
• Lyman Direction: CRITICAL INTENSITY.
  • ISW Assessment (Mar 29 Pub): Confirms assessed RU advances near Terny. Previous reports suggested Terny largely RU-occupied.
  • UGS reported 27 RU attacks repelled (Mar 27).
• Toretsk Direction: HIGH INTENSITY.
  • Russian Advance Confirmed (ISW, Mar 29 Pub): Confirmed RU advances near the Tsentralna mine.
  • UGS reported 21 RU attacks repelled (Mar 27).
• Pokrovsk Direction: HIGHEST INTENSITY. Remains primary RU offensive focus. UGS reported 41 RU attacks repelled (Mar 27). Positional fighting.
• Novopavlivsk Direction:
  • Russian Advance Confirmed (ISW, Mar 29 Pub): Confirmed RU advances near Kurakhove and north of Andriivka.
  • RU sources report ongoing attacks on Vesele (RU CLAIM).
  • UGS reported 13 RU attacks repelled (Mar 27).
• Zaporizhzhia Direction (Orikhiv/Huliaipole):
  • Russian Advance Confirmed (ISW, Mar 29 Pub): Confirmed RU advances in fields north of Zherebyanky (West Zaporizhzhia Oblast). Previous RU claims placed forces in center of Lobkove.
  • Huliaipole: Previous RU claims of breaking into Vilne Pole (RU CLAIM).
  • Civilian evacuation ongoing from frontline communities.
• Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): Positional fighting. Contested areas and claimed UA counteroffensives (ISW Map, Mar 29 Pub).

III. Other Military-Relevant Developments

• Enemy Tactics/Capabilities:
  • Sniper/Recon Focus: Recent RU imagery (Mar 29) shows emphasis on specialized ghillie suits, camouflaged positions (varied environments), suppressed weapons, indicating focus on sniper/recon/covert ops.
  • Unguided Rocket Air Strikes: RU sources claim successful use of NAR from aircraft against ground targets (ammunition depot), utilizing loft tactics and drone BDA (Mar 29). (RU CLAIM)
  • UR-77 Use: RU MoD confirmed use against UA stronghold (Pokrovsk direction, Mar 28).
  • Battlefield Observation: Recent RU drone footage (Mar 29) shows aftermath of combat in an unspecified rural area, documenting destroyed military equipment and damaged buildings.
• Command & Control / Strategic Developments:
  • Ukrainian Command: Andriy Hnatov appointed Chief of General Staff / Stavka member (Mar 28).
  • Russian Offensive Preparations (UA Assessment): Previous intel indicated RU preparations for new offensives targeting Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia Oblasts (Zelenskyy, Mar 27).
• Logistics & Personnel:
  • Russian Engineering: Road construction continues in occupied Donetsk Oblast for logistics.
  • Russian Recruitment/Losses/Internal:
    • Reports highlight rapid deployment, use of penal recruits.
    • Appeals from relatives indicate significant MIA personnel/ID backlogs.
    • Defense Industry Figure Incident: Former deputy founder of "Telta" plant (defense-related) reportedly escaped house arrest by signing MoD contract, then recaptured (TASS, Mar 29). Suggests potential recruitment pathways and internal control issues.
    • FSB Counter-Intelligence Operation (St. Petersburg - UPDATE): Russian FSB detained a Russian citizen accused of treason (Art. 275). Allegations include administering pro-Ukrainian/opposition resources, contacting Ukrainian GUR, and providing financial assistance to AFU. Subject reportedly acted voluntarily. (RVvoenkor, Mar 29). This highlights Russian internal security efforts targeting perceived domestic support for Ukraine.
  • Russian Crowdfunding: Ongoing public appeals (e.g., VDV request for Mavic 3 batteries, Mar 29) suggest reliance on non-standard channels for tactical equipment.
• International Military Cooperation & Aid:
  • Upcoming Meetings: Urgent Kyiv meeting (FRA, UK, UA+) anticipated; next Ramstein meeting likely Apr 11, 2025.
  • Intelligence/Production: Ukraine secured expanded access to partner intel/ammo. Agreements for domestic AD system production; artillery production licenses sought.
  • US Aid Terms: Refusal of debt-based aid reiterated; US indicated future aid may not be free (Zelenskyy).
• Information Operations & Propaganda:
  • Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra Narrative (RU Source): Russian sources (RVvoenkor, Mar 29) amplify claims of planned "desecration" by Ukrainian authorities during Lent, framing it as anti-Orthodox action encouraged by the West. Analysis of related images notes police presence near a church, potentially exploitable for propaganda.
  • POW Abuse Claims (RU Source): Russian sources (Colonelcassad, Mar 29) disseminated alleged testimony from a returned POW ("Pianist") detailing severe mistreatment (beatings, dog attacks) in Ukrainian captivity, including specific targeting of an Odesa native. Presented as evidence for a Russian-affiliated "tribunal". This narrative aims to demoralize UA forces, justify RU actions, and potentially influence international opinion.

IV. Recent Historical Context (Relevant Confirmed Strikes/Events - Previous Updates)

• Confirmed Ukrainian Strikes (Past Week):
  • HIMARS strike eliminating RU Major Tibilov (Mar 26-27, Kursk Oblast).
  • Strike on RU Command Post (9th MRR/18th MRD) near Viktorivka-Uspenivka (Kursk Oblast), eliminating Battalion Commander (reported Mar 26).
  • Claimed strike on Engels-2 Airbase destroying 96 ALCMs/fuel (Mar 20, details emerged Mar 27).
• Massive Shahed Attacks (Night Mar 26-27): Widespread RU drone attacks (86 drones + 1 Iskander-M) caused significant civilian infrastructure damage and casualties (Kharkiv, Zolochiv, Dnipro). 42 Shaheds intercepted.
• High Ground Combat Intensity (Late March): Combat clashes significantly higher in March vs Feb. Primary RU focus areas confirmed (ISW/UGS): Pokrovsk, Lyman, Kupyansk, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Zaporizhzhia (West), border areas.
• Potential Russian Offensive Preparations (Mar 27): Intel indicated preparations targeting Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia.
• Kursk/Belgorod Border (Mar 27): RU confirmed securing MAPP Sudzha checkpoint. Increased RU operational intensity reported.
• Crimea Strikes (Mar 27 Claim): UA GUR claimed drone strikes on RU AD/logistics assets (Radars: Podlyot, Imbir, Kasta; CP; Tugboat).
• Kherson Civilian Casualties (Mar 27): 2 KIA, 6 WIA due to RU shelling/drones, including medics hit in secondary strike. Railway station hit.
• Orikhiv Direction Advance Claim (Mar 27 - RU): Claimed >2.5km advance E of Kam'yanske to Shcherbaky, supported by video.
• International Planning (Mar 27): Confirmed FR/UK/DE military leaders visit to Kyiv for planning support. Next Ramstein set for Apr 11.