Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 29, 2025, 01:26 UTC
I. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
UAV Threat Ended (Update):Threat of Shahed strike UAVs cleared across all oblasts as of 01:01 UTC, Mar 29 (Ukrainian Air Force / RBC-Ukraine). This follows a period of diminished activity overnight.
Previous Activity (Recap): Minimal UAVs tracked late Mar 28 over Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Sumy Oblasts. Air alerts ended in Kyiv (00:18 UTC) and Zaporizhzhia (23:53 UTC, Mar 28). Possible Shahed interception reported over Kyiv late Mar 28.
Damage: Extensive damage to multiple residential buildings, homes, vehicles, service stations. Large fire extinguished at Bartolommeo restaurant complex. Search/rescue concluded. Evidence documentation ongoing.
Luhansk Fire Cause (Russian Claim): RU sources attribute large warehouse fire to debris from 2 allegedly intercepted Ukrainian UAVs. No casualties claimed. (RU CLAIM)
Russian Air Strike Claim (Tactical): Video shared by RU sources (Voenkor DV, Mar 29 ~01:05 UTC) purportedly shows a Russian aircraft launching unguided aerial rockets (NAR) using a loft maneuver ("с кабрирования"), resulting in one rocket hitting and detonating a Ukrainian field ammunition depot. Objective control (BDA via drone) claimed. (RU CLAIM - Tactical Event)
Russian Artillery Strike Claim (Toretsk Direction): RU sources claim a BM-21 Grad strike hit a Ukrainian ammunition transport vehicle near Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk), causing secondary explosions. (RU CLAIM)
II. Ground Combat Operations & Border Areas
Kursk/Belgorod Border Operations (RU Territory):
Ukrainian Advance Confirmed (ISW, Mar 29 Pub): Confirmed UA advances into eastern Popovka (NW Belgorod Oblast).
Russian Advances Confirmed (ISW, Mar 29 Pub): Confirmed RU advances near Guyevo (Kursk Oblast).
Confirmed Ukrainian HIMARS Strike (Kursk, Mar 26-27): Eliminated Russian Rosgvardia Major Marat Tibilov ("Hero of Russia") near Cherkasske-Porechne.
Kupiansk Direction (Significant Russian Claims & Pressure):
Russian Claims (Mar 28): Significant advances claimed by "Zapad" Group on Dvurichanskyi bridgehead: entry into Mala Shapkovka, full control of Kondrashivka, advance across Velykyi Burluk road, entry into Tyshchenkivka. Attributed by RU to potential UA redeployments. (RU CLAIM - Verification Required)
ISW Assessment (Mar 29 Pub): Intense fighting, assessed RU advances east of Oskil River (near Synkivka, Kyslivka, Zahryzove). Previous RU claim on Pershotravneve reiterated.
Russian Advance Confirmed (ISW, Mar 29 Pub): Confirmed RU advances near Kurakhove and north of Andriivka.
RU sources report ongoing attacks on Vesele (RU CLAIM).
UGS reported 13 RU attacks repelled (Mar 27).
Zaporizhzhia Direction (Orikhiv/Huliaipole):
Russian Advance Confirmed (ISW, Mar 29 Pub): Confirmed RU advances in fields north of Zherebyanky (West Zaporizhzhia Oblast). Previous RU claims placed forces in center of Lobkove.
Huliaipole: Previous RU claims of breaking into Vilne Pole (RU CLAIM).
Civilian evacuation ongoing from frontline communities.
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): Positional fighting. Contested areas and claimed UA counteroffensives (ISW Map, Mar 29 Pub).
Unguided Rocket Air Strikes: RU sources claim successful use of NAR from aircraft against ground targets (ammunition depot), utilizing loft tactics and drone BDA (Mar 29). (RU CLAIM)
UR-77 Use: RU MoD confirmed use against UA stronghold (Pokrovsk direction, Mar 28).
Command & Control / Strategic Developments:
Ukrainian Command: Andriy Hnatov appointed Chief of General Staff / Stavka member (Mar 28).
Russian Offensive Preparations (UA Assessment): Previous intel indicated RU preparations for new offensives targeting Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia Oblasts (Zelenskyy, Mar 27).
Logistics & Personnel:
Russian Engineering: Road construction continues in occupied Donetsk Oblast for logistics.
Russian Recruitment/Losses/Internal:
Reports highlight rapid deployment, use of penal recruits.
Appeals from relatives indicate significant MIA personnel/ID backlogs.
Defense Industry Figure Incident: Former deputy founder of "Telta" plant (defense-related) reportedly escaped house arrest by signing MoD contract, then recaptured (TASS, Mar 29). Suggests potential recruitment pathways and internal control issues.
Russian Crowdfunding: Ongoing public appeals (e.g., VDV request for Mavic 3 batteries, Mar 29) suggest reliance on non-standard channels for tactical equipment.
Intelligence/Production: Ukraine secured expanded access to partner intel/ammo. Agreements for domestic AD system production; artillery production licenses sought.
US Aid Terms: Refusal of debt-based aid reiterated; US indicated future aid may not be free (Zelenskyy).
Information Operations & Propaganda:
Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra Narrative (RU Source): Russian sources (RVvoenkor, Mar 29) amplify claims of planned "desecration" by Ukrainian authorities during Lent, framing it as anti-Orthodox action encouraged by the West. Analysis of related images notes police presence near a church, potentially exploitable for propaganda.
POW Abuse Claims (RU Source): Russian sources (Colonelcassad, Mar 29) disseminated alleged testimony from a returned POW ("Pianist") detailing severe mistreatment (beatings, dog attacks) in Ukrainian captivity, including specific targeting of an Odesa native. Presented as evidence for a Russian-affiliated "tribunal". This narrative aims to demoralize UA forces, justify RU actions, and potentially influence international opinion.
IV. Recent Historical Context (Relevant Confirmed Strikes/Events)
Confirmed Ukrainian Strikes (Past Week):
HIMARS strike eliminating RU Major Tibilov (Mar 26-27, Kursk Oblast).
Strike on RU Command Post (9th MRR/18th MRD) near Viktorivka-Uspenivka (Kursk Oblast), eliminating Battalion Commander (reported Mar 26).
Claimed strike on Engels-2 Airbase destroying 96 ALCMs/fuel (Mar 20, details emerged Mar 27).
