Latest Tracking (Vanek, 23:32 UTC, Mar 28): Minimal UAVs tracked over Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, and Sumy Oblasts.
Kyiv City/Oblast: Air alert ended (KMVA, 00:18 UTC, Mar 29). Previous alert (23:15-23:05 UTC, Mar 28) likely triggered by UAV approach; possible Shahed interception reported over Kyiv.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air alert ended (ZOVA, 23:53 UTC, Mar 28).
Damage: Significant damage to multiple multi-story buildings, ~10 private homes, vehicles, service stations. Large fire at Bartolommeo restaurant complex. Search and rescue concluded. Police documenting evidence.
Luhansk Fire Cause (Russian Claim): Russian sources attribute a large warehouse fire in Luhansk to debris from two allegedly intercepted Ukrainian UAVs. No RU-claimed casualties.
Russian Artillery Strike Claim (Toretsk Direction): Russian sources claim a BM-21 Grad strike hit a Ukrainian ammunition transport vehicle near Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk), causing secondary explosions. (RU CLAIM)
II. Ground Combat Operations & Border Areas
Kursk/Belgorod Border Operations (RU Territory):
Ukrainian Advance Confirmed (ISW, Mar 29 Publication): Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analysis, citing geolocated data and visualized in maps published Mar 29, confirms recent Ukrainian advances in northwestern Belgorod Oblast, specifically pushing into eastern Popovka.
Russian Advances Confirmed (ISW, Mar 29 Publication): ISW confirms Russian advances near Guyevo (Kursk Oblast) based on geolocated footage (Mar 27/28), corroborated by map analysis published Mar 29.
Confirmed Ukrainian HIMARS Strike (Kursk Oblast, Mar 26-27): Successful strike eliminated Russian Rosgvardia Major Marat Tibilov ("Hero of Russia") near Cherkasske-Porechne. (Significant HVT elimination).
Intense Fighting: Clashes continue. UGS reported 8 engagements in Kursk direction on Mar 27. Russian MoD previously made significant claims of capturing border settlements.
Kupiansk Direction (Significant Russian Claims & Pressure):
Russian Claims (Mar 28): RU sources (Voenkor Kotenok) claim significant advances by "Zapad" Group on the Dvurichanskyi bridgehead:
Claimed entry into Mala Shapkovka (assault ongoing).
Claimed full control of Kondrashivka.
Claimed advance across Velykyi Burluk road and entry into Tyshchenkivka.
RU assessment attributes this to potential UA redeployments to Belgorod border. (RU CLAIM - Requires Verification)
ISW Assessment: Maps published Mar 29 indicate intense fighting and assessed RU advances east of the Oskil River, near Synkivka, Kyslivka, Zahryzove. Previous RU claim of capturing Pershotravneve (Krasne Pervoe) reiterated.
Lyman Direction:CRITICAL INTENSITY.
ISW map (published Mar 29) confirms assessed Russian advances near Terny. Previous assessments indicated Terny almost fully Russian-occupied.
Intense Russian attacks persist. UGS reported 27 attacks on Mar 27.
Toretsk Direction:HIGH INTENSITY.
Russian Advance Confirmed (ISW, Mar 29 Publication): ISW map analysis (published Mar 29), based on geolocated footage (Mar 27), confirms Russian advances near Toretsk, specifically near the Tsentralna mine.
UGS reported 21 Russian attacks on Mar 27. Russian sources previously claimed advances NW of Druzhba and towards Konstantynivka/Chasiv Yar rear.
Pokrovsk Direction:HIGHEST INTENSITY. Remains primary focus of Russian offensive operations. UGS reported 41 attacks on Mar 27. Positional fighting ongoing.
Novopavlivsk Direction:
Russian Advance Confirmed (ISW, Mar 29 Publication): ISW assessment (map published Mar 29) confirms Russian advances near Kurakhove and specifically north of Andriivka (geolocated footage Mar 27/28).
Russian sources report ongoing attacks on Vesele (RU CLAIM).
UGS reported 13 Russian attacks repelled on Mar 27.
Zaporizhzhia Direction (Orikhiv/Huliaipole):
Russian Advance Confirmed (ISW, Mar 29 Publication): ISW assessment (map published Mar 29) confirms Russian advances in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast, specifically in fields north of Zherebyanky (geolocated footage Mar 27). Previous RU claims placed forces in center of Lobkove.
Huliaipole: Previous Russian claims of breaking into Vilne Pole after liberating Pryvilne (RU CLAIM).
Civilian evacuation continues from frontline communities (Polohivskyi, Vasylivskyi districts).
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): Positional fighting reported. ISW map (published Mar 29) shows contested areas and claimed UA counteroffensives.
III. Other Military-Relevant Developments
Enemy Tactics/Capabilities:
Sniper/Recon Focus: Recent imagery shared by Russian sources (Colonelcassad, Mar 29) displays personnel utilizing specialized ghillie suits and camouflaged positions in diverse environments (snowy fields, woodlands, urban building interiors), indicating a sustained emphasis on sniper, reconnaissance, and potentially covert operations. Use of suppressed weapons frequently observed, reinforcing potential for stealth actions.
UR-77 Use: RU MoD confirmed offensive use of UR-77 mine clearing system against a UA stronghold in Pokrovsk direction (Mar 28).
Command & Control / Strategic Developments:
Ukrainian Command: Andriy Hnatov officially appointed Chief of the General Staff and Stavka member (Mar 28).
Russian Offensive Preparations (UA Assessment): President Zelenskyy previously stated intelligence indicated RU preparations for new offensives targeting Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia Oblasts (Mar 27).
Logistics & Personnel:
Russian Engineering: RU military engineers continue constructing new roads in occupied Donetsk Oblast to improve logistics.
Russian Recruitment/Losses: Reports highlight rapid deployment cycles and use of penal recruits (e.g., Private Akopyan case). Appeals from relatives of missing RU soldiers indicate significant unaccounted personnel and identification backlogs.
Russian Crowdfunding: Ongoing public fundraising efforts observed for Russian units (e.g., VDV appeal for Mavic 3 drone batteries, Mar 29), suggesting potential reliance on non-standard channels for specific tactical equipment or shortfalls in official supply lines.
International Military Cooperation & Aid:
Upcoming Meetings: Urgent Kyiv meeting (FRA, UK, UA+) anticipated soon; next Ramstein format meeting set for April 2025 (likely Apr 11).
Intelligence/Production: Ukraine secured expanded access to partner intelligence (incl. satellite) and ammo stockpiles. Agreements reached for domestic licensed production of AD systems; artillery production licenses sought.
US Aid Terms: President Zelensky reiterated refusal of debt-based aid, noted US indication future aid may not be free.
IV. Recent Historical Context (Relevant Confirmed Strikes/Events)
Confirmed Ukrainian Strikes (Past Week):
HIMARS strike eliminating RU Major Tibilov (Mar 26-27, Kursk Oblast).
Strike on RU Command Post (9th MRR/18th MRD) near Viktorivka-Uspenivka (Kursk Oblast), eliminating Battalion Commander (reported Mar 26).
Claimed successful strike on Engels-2 Airbase destroying 96 ALCMs and fuel (Mar 20, details emerged Mar 27).
High Ground Combat Intensity (Late March): Combat clashes reported significantly higher in March vs February. Primary RU focus areas confirmed by ISW (maps published Mar 29) and UGS: Pokrovsk, Lyman, Kupyansk, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Zaporizhzhia (West), and border areas.
