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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-03-28 23:57:00Z
11 months ago
Previous (2025-03-28 23:27:00Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 28, 2025, 23:56 UTC

I. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity

  • Reduced UAV Activity (Ongoing): Hostile UAV presence has diminished but continues.
    • Current Tracking (Vanek, 23:32 UTC):
      • Zhytomyr Oblast: 1 UAV heading towards Zviahel.
      • Vinnytsia Oblast: 1 UAV south of Vinnytsia, course northwest.
      • Sumy Oblast: 1 UAV near Lebedyn, 1 UAV near Okhtyrka.
    • Previous Widespread Activity: Earlier reports indicated multiple UAVs active over Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Odesa Oblasts.
    • Kyiv City/Oblast:
      • Air alert re-activated (KMVA, 23:15 UTC) following detection of UAV approaching from Ukrainka area (Vanek, 23:14 UTC).
      • Video evidence suggests a possible Shahed shootdown over Kyiv (Tsaplienko, 23:23 UTC).
      • Previous alert had ended at 23:05 UTC (KMVA).
    • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air alert ended (ZOVA, 23:53 UTC).
  • Dnipro Attack Aftermath (Civilian Targeting Confirmed):
    • Targeting: Official confirmation (Dnipropetrovsk OVA / National Police) indicates deliberate drone strikes on civilian objects: a restaurant complex, private homes, and multi-story residential buildings.
    • Casualties: Confirmed count (National Police, as of 22:30 UTC) is 4 civilians Killed In Action (KIA), 19 civilians Wounded In Action (WIA).
    • Damage: Significant damage to multiple multi-story buildings, approximately 10 private homes, vehicles, service stations. Large fire reported at Bartolommeo restaurant complex. Police released photos documenting damage and warned of potential unexploded UAV debris.
    • Response: Search and rescue operation ongoing. Police documenting attack consequences.
  • Luhansk Fire Cause (Russian Claim): Russian sources maintain a large warehouse fire in Luhansk resulted from falling debris of two intercepted Ukrainian UAVs. Photos show significant damage. No casualties claimed by RU sources.
  • Confirmed Ukrainian HIMARS Strike (Kursk Oblast, Mar 26-27):
    • Successful strike using HIMARS targeted Russian Rosgvardia special forces positions in Cherkasske-Porechne, Kursk Oblast (~14 km from the state border).
    • Confirmed elimination of Major Marat Tibilov, a Rosgvardia special forces officer recently awarded "Hero of Russia". (Source: Butusov Plus, citing objective confirmation). Significant High-Value Target (HVT) elimination.
  • Russian Artillery Strike Claim (Toretsk Direction):
    • Russian sources (Colonelcassad/nm_dnr) claim a BM-21 Grad strike by the 238th Artillery Brigade successfully hit a Ukrainian ammunition transport vehicle near Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk).
    • Claim secondary explosions destroyed equipment and personnel, disrupting logistics. Video provided. (RU CLAIM)

II. Ground Combat Operations & Related Developments

  • Kupiansk Direction (Significant Russian Claims):
    • Russian sources (Voenkor Kotenok, 23:40 UTC) report significant advances by the "Zapad" Group on the Dvurichanskyi bridgehead north of Kupiansk on March 28:
      • Claimed entry into Mala Shapkovka with ongoing assault actions.
      • Claimed liberation (full control) of Kondrashivka.
      • Claimed advance across the road to Velykyi Burluk and entry into Tyshchenkivka.
    • Russian assessment attributes these alleged successes to Ukrainian redeployment of forces from Kupiansk to the Belgorod border area.
    • Asserts proximity of Tyshchenkivka (<1 km) to the Kupiansk-Velykyi Burluk railway and Kondrashivka (<4 km) to Kupiansk city. (RU CLAIM - Requires Verification)
  • Kursk Oblast Border Area (Russian Territory):
    • Cherkasske Porechne: Site of confirmed successful Ukrainian HIMARS strike eliminating RU Major Tibilov (see above). Russian war correspondent previously reported RU capture, destruction, and alleged UA atrocities/mining (unverified RU narrative).
    • Russian Information Operation: Release of a propaganda film ("WAR: ABYSS OPENED IN THEIR HOMES") focusing on alleged impact of Ukrainian actions in Kursk Oblast. (Source: RVvoenkor)
  • Novopavlivsk Direction:
    • Russian sources (Voenkor Kotenok) report units of the Russian "Vostok" Group are currently attacking Vesele.
    • Fierce fighting is reported for control of the settlement. (RU CLAIM)
  • Toretsk Direction:
    • Russian artillery claims successful strike on UA logistics near Dzerzhinsk (see Air/Missile section). (RU CLAIM)
  • Russian Logistics (Occupied Donetsk Oblast):
    • Russian military engineering units ("Vostok" Group) continue constructing new roads to improve logistical throughput.
  • Russian Personnel Issues/Losses:
    • Report (Butusov Plus) details case of RU Private Akopyan Armen Georgievich (assault unit rifleman/radio operator), recruited from pre-trial detention (SIZO), received minimal training (3 days from arrival to deployment), and went Missing In Action (MIA) on July 18, 2024. Highlights rapid deployment cycles and potential use of penal recruits.
    • Video shared earlier (Butusov Plus) allegedly shows RU armored vehicle exploding after UA drone strike near other RU personnel.

III. Other Military-Relevant Developments

  • Russian Cybersecurity Posture: Previous reports noted Khabarovsk Police warnings about cyber threats, indicating state-level concern. (Low relevance to direct UA ops).
  • Russian Internal Measures: Reports indicate mass police checks and impoundment of electric bikes/scooters used by couriers (predominantly migrants) in Moscow and St. Petersburg for alleged traffic/licensing violations. (Low direct relevance).

IV. Recent Historical Context (Relevant Extracts)

  • Massive Shahed Attacks (Mar 26 Night): Widespread attacks targeted multiple cities, causing significant civilian infrastructure damage and casualties (e.g., Kharkiv, Zolochiv).
  • High Ground Combat Intensity (Mar 26-27): Over 200 daily Russian ground assault actions reported earlier in the week, intensity noted as higher than February. Primary RU focus areas: Kursk border, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Vremivka.
  • Border Clashes & Claims (Mar 25-26): Reports of intense fighting and conflicting claims of advances/control in Kursk/Belgorod border areas (Popovka, Demydovka, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Guevo, Sudzha). RU MoD made significant claims of liberation/casualties. UA reported repelling numerous assaults (Kursk direction).
  • Frontline Advances (Reported Mar 25-27): RU advances previously claimed/assessed near Terny, Spirne (Lyman); NW Toretsk; Katerynivka (Luhansk); Dniproenerhiya area; Pischane (Kharkiv); S Lobkove, C Stepove (Orikhiv). Intense fighting persisted, especially Pokrovsk direction.
  • Confirmed Ukrainian Strikes (Past Week):
    • HIMARS strike eliminating RU Major Tibilov (Mar 26-27, Kursk Oblast).
    • Strike on RU Command Post (9th MRR/18th MRD) near Viktorivka-Uspenivka (Kursk Oblast), eliminating Battalion Commander (reported Mar 26).
    • Missile strike on RU media personnel near Kupiansk (Mar 24).
    • Claimed successful strike on Engels-2 Airbase destroying 96 ALCMs and fuel (Mar 20, details emerged Mar 27).
Previous (2025-03-28 23:27:00Z)

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