Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 28, 2025, 23:26 UTC

I. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity

• Widespread UAV Activity (Ongoing): Multiple hostile UAVs remain active across Ukraine. Air alerts are active/re-activated in relevant oblasts.
  • Current Tracking (Vanek, 22:56 UTC / UA Air Force, 22:42 UTC):
    • Vinnytsia Oblast: 1 UAV north (west course), 1 UAV entering from Kyiv Oblast, 1 UAV entering from Kirovohrad Oblast. Threat declared.
    • Zhytomyr Oblast: 1 UAV entering from north Kyiv Oblast (west course). Threat declared.
    • Sumy Oblast: 3 UAVs in Sumy Raion (west course). Earlier explosions reported in Sumy city.
    • Kharkiv Oblast: 4 UAVs west of Kharkiv city (south course), 1 UAV south of Kharkiv city (south course).
    • Odesa Oblast: UAVs previously reported in north, course northwest.
  • Kyiv City/Oblast:
    • Air alert re-activated (KMVA, 23:15 UTC).
    • UAV detected approaching Kyiv from Ukrainka area (Vanek, 23:14 UTC).
    • Video evidence of apparent Shahed shootdown over Kyiv (Tsaplienko, 23:23 UTC).
    • Previous alert ended (KMVA, 23:05 UTC); earlier UAVs detected on western/southwestern course.
• Dnipro Attack Aftermath (Civilian Targeting Confirmed):
  • Targeting: Official confirmation (Dnipropetrovsk OVA / National Police) states drone strikes deliberately targeted civilian objects: a restaurant complex, private homes, and multi-story residential buildings.
  • Casualties: Confirmed count (National Police, as of 00:30 Local / 22:30 UTC) is 4 civilians KIA, 19 civilians WIA.
  • Damage: Significant damage confirmed to multiple multi-story buildings, ~10 private homes, vehicles, service stations. Large fire at Bartolommeo restaurant complex. National Police released photos documenting damage. Public warned about potential unexploded UAV debris.
  • Response: Search and rescue operation ongoing. Police documenting attack consequences.
• Luhansk Fire Cause (Russian Claim): Russian sources maintain the large warehouse fire in Luhansk resulted from falling debris of two intercepted Ukrainian UAVs. Photos confirm significant damage. No casualties claimed by RU sources.
• Confirmed Ukrainian HIMARS Strike (Kursk Oblast, Mar 26-27):
  • Successful strike using HIMARS targeted Russian Rosgvardia special forces positions in Cherkasske-Porechne, Kursk Oblast (~14 km from front line).
  • Confirmed elimination of Major Marat Tibilov, a Rosgvardia special forces officer recently awarded "Hero of Russia". (Source: Butusov Plus, citing objective confirmation). Significant HVT elimination.
• Russian Artillery Strike Claim (Toretsk Direction):
  • Russian sources (Colonelcassad/nm_dnr) claim a BM-21 Grad strike by the 238th Artillery Brigade successfully hit a Ukrainian ammunition transport vehicle near Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk).
  • Claim secondary explosions destroyed equipment and personnel, disrupting logistics. Video provided. (RU CLAIM)

II. Ground Combat Operations & Related Developments

• Kursk Oblast Border Area (Russian Territory):
  • Cherkasske Porechne: Site of confirmed successful Ukrainian HIMARS strike eliminating RU Major Tibilov (see above). Russian war correspondent previously reported RU capture, destruction, and alleged UA atrocities/mining (unverified RU narrative).
  • Russian Information Operation: Release of a propaganda film ("WAR: ABYSS OPENED IN THEIR HOMES") focusing on alleged impact of Ukrainian actions in Kursk Oblast. (Source: RVvoenkor)
• Novopavlivsk Direction:
  • Russian sources (Voenkor Kotenok) report units of the Russian "Vostok" Group are currently attacking Vesele.
  • Fierce fighting is reported for control of the settlement. (RU CLAIM)
• Toretsk Direction:
  • Russian artillery claims successful strike on UA logistics near Dzerzhinsk (see Air/Missile section). (RU CLAIM)
• Russian Logistics (Occupied Donetsk Oblast):
  • Russian military engineering units ("Vostok" Group) continue constructing new roads to improve logistical throughput.
• Russian Personnel Issues/Losses:
  • Report (Butusov Plus) details case of RU Private Akopyan Armen Georgievich (assault unit rifleman/radio operator), recruited from pre-trial detention (SIZO), received minimal training (3 days from arrival to deployment), and went Missing In Action (MIA) on July 18, 2024 (previous year context). Highlights rapid deployment cycles and potential use of penal recruits.
  • Video shared earlier (Butusov Plus) allegedly shows RU armored vehicle exploding after UA drone strike near other RU personnel.

III. Other Military-Relevant Developments

• Russian Cybersecurity Posture: Previous reports noted Khabarovsk Police warnings about cyber threats, indicating state-level concern.

IV. Recent Historical Context (Relevant Extracts)

• Massive Shahed Attacks (Mar 26 Night): Widespread attacks targeted multiple cities, causing significant civilian infrastructure damage and casualties.
• High Ground Combat Intensity (Mar 26): Over 200 daily Russian ground assault actions reported, intensity noted as higher than February. Primary RU focus areas: Kursk border, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Vremivka.
• Border Clashes & Claims (Mar 25-26): Reports of intense fighting and conflicting claims of advances/control in Kursk/Belgorod border areas (Popovka, Demydovka, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Guevo, Sudzha). RU MoD made significant claims of liberation/casualties. UA reported repelling numerous assaults (Kursk direction).
• Frontline Advances (Reported Mar 25-26): RU advances claimed/assessed near Terny, Spirne (Lyman); NW Toretsk; S Lobkove, C Stepove (Orikhiv). Intense fighting persisted, especially Pokrovsk direction.
• Confirmed Ukrainian Strikes (Past Week):
  • HIMARS strike eliminating RU Major Tibilov (Mar 26-27, Kursk Oblast).
  • Strike on RU Command Post (9th MRR/18th MRD) near Viktorivka-Uspenivka (Kursk Oblast), eliminating Battalion Commander (reported Mar 26).
  • Missile strike on RU media personnel near Kupiansk (Mar 24).
  • Claimed successful strike on Engels-2 Airbase destroying 96 ALCMs and fuel (Mar 20, details emerged Mar 27).