Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 28, 2025, 21:56 UTC
I. Overall Situation & Command Focus
Combat Intensity: High intensity persists across the front line, with 157 combat clashes reported on March 28. Russian ground assault tempo remains significantly elevated. Primary Russian efforts are concentrated on the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Lyman, Kupyansk, and Kursk/Belgorod border axes.
Ukrainian Command Priorities (Stavka Meeting Mar 28):
Accelerating domestic development, production, and supply of various drone types (interceptor, reactive, fiber-optic). Successful intercepts of Shahed UAVs using interceptor drones noted.
Accelerating domestic missile production and establishing local production facilities for SAM systems and missiles.
Personnel: Andriy Hnatov appointed Chief of the General Staff. Major General Serhiy Kryvonos appointed head of the Institute of Global Civil Security (Warsaw-based).
Equipment Needs: Ongoing frontline requirements for technical support (charging stations, FPVs, comms, tablets, laptops).
Alleged Intelligence Leak (RU Claim): Russian sources (Colonelcassad citing JokerDPR) claim acquisition of official Ukrainian civil defense exercise plans for Chernivtsi Oblast, detailing scenarios for mass missile strikes on energy infrastructure and alleged vulnerabilities. This requires verification and is potentially an information operation.
II. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Ongoing Russian Air Threats (Mar 28, Night - Actively Developing):
Mass UAV Attack on Dnipro (Updated Casualties & Details): Significant attack involving over 20 Shahed-type UAVs targeted Dnipro city from multiple directions.
Confirmed Impacts & Casualties (Updated - Dnipropetrovsk OVA): Strikes resulted in a large fire destroying the "Caravella" ship feature at the Bartolommeo Hotel-Restaurant Complex. Damage confirmed to multi-story residential buildings and private homes. Confirmed 4 civilians KIA and 15 WIA, including a pregnant woman. Three wounded are in critical condition. Russian sources claim the hotel housed foreign personnel.
Air Defense: Ukrainian forces downed the majority of the attacking UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipropetrovsk OVA).
Kyiv Under Attack (Ongoing):
Air Alert Declared (21:04 UTC): Due to incoming Shahed UAV threat. At least 4 UAVs initially reported approaching the capital (Tsaplienko), with 9 UAVs reported transiting from Chernihiv Oblast into Kyiv Oblast (Mykolaivskyi Vanek, 21:28 UTC). UAVs reported near Vyshhorod (Mykolaivskyi Vanek, 21:44 UTC).
Air Defense Active: AD systems actively engaged hostile UAVs near and over Kyiv, particularly on the Left Bank (KMVA, Mayor Klitschko, Operatyvnyi ZSU, RBC). Explosions and sounds of gunfire reported (RBC, Tsaplienko, RVvoenkor). Footage circulating shows potential intercepts/debris. Citizens urged to remain in shelters as the threat persists (KMVA).
Widespread UAV Activity (Updated Tracking - Ukr Air Force / Mykolaivskyi Vanek, 21:45 UTC):
Sumy Oblast: UAVs present, course west. (Previously reported 4 UAVs circling south of Sumy).
Kyiv Oblast: UAVs present, course west/southwest.
Poltava Oblast: UAVs present (north), course south. (Previously reported 2 north of Kremenchuk, course west; 3 north, course west).
Cherkasy Oblast: UAVs present, course southwest.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: UAVs present, course west. (Previously reported 2 north of Kryvyi Rih, course west; 1 approaching Dnipro from north). Threat level reduced for Dnipro city/oblast (Mykolaivskyi Vanek, 21:44 UTC).
Previous Major Russian Attack (Night Mar 27/28): Attack involved 163 strike/imitator UAVs. Ukrainian Air Force confirmed downing 89 strike UAVs. Confirmed impacts on energy infrastructure and civilian areas.
Strike in Luhansk (Occupied - Update):
Multiple reports confirm explosions and a large fire in the north-eastern industrial zone / Kam'yanyi Brid district of Luhansk city (approx. 20:30 - 21:00 UTC).
Russian sources (TASS citing LNR security forces) claim the fire was caused by falling debris from two intercepted Ukrainian UAVs. Ukrainian sources report hearing UAVs and AD activity preceding the incident.
Ukrainian Air/Drone Operations (Previous):
Confirmed Strike on Russian Territory (Mar 27): Ukrainian Air Force strike on Pohar border crossing (Bryansk Oblast, RU) destroyed military infrastructure, communications, EW, and surveillance systems. Estimated 15-40 Russian personnel KIA.
Large-Scale UAV Campaign (Night Mar 27/28): RU MoD claimed interception/destruction of 78 Ukrainian UAVs over eight Russian Oblasts. Confirmed activity and reported intercepts/damage near Engels Airfield (Saratov Oblast) and in Voronezh Oblast.
Ongoing Operations: Counter-battery fire, reconnaissance, and FPV strikes against Russian targets continue.
14 combat clashes reported in the Kursk direction (Mar 28). Heavy fighting persists.
Intense Russian air and artillery bombardment continues.
Demydovka & Popovka (Belgorod Oblast): Fierce battles ongoing. Russian forces claim incremental advances in Demidovka. Fighting also reported near Grafovka and Prylesie.
Guyevo Area (Kursk Oblast): Russian forces conduct clearing operations. RU sources claim attempts at operational encirclement and liberation of Veselovka, with advances between Vodolagi and Belovody (Sumy Obl.).
Kharkiv Direction (Kupyansk Area):
Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian assaults near Vovchansk/Kamyanka and 3 attempts near Zahryzove/Bohuslavka (Mar 28).
Significant tactical success reported Mar 27 near Lozova (77th Airmobile Brigade).
Russian Claim (Source: Сливочный каприз, Mar 28): Active fighting reported. Claim of Russian armored column attack towards Bohdanivka. Claim of Russian advance >1.5 km south of Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) in a western direction (Coordinates provided: 48.088599, 36.970095). Requires verification.
Russian Claim: Capture of Malye Shcherbaky (RU MoD, Mar 28).
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson):2 combat clashes reported (Mar 28). Positional fighting.
IV. Other Military-Relevant Developments
Swedish Torpedo Integration: Successful tests of Torpedo 47 launch from CB90 craft enhance potential capabilities for Ukrainian Navy CB90s.
Russian Cybersecurity Posture: Khabarovsk Police disseminate public service announcements regarding common cyber threats (phishing, malware links) and emphasize critical thinking as a defense. This reflects a general state-level awareness and concern regarding cyber vulnerabilities affecting the Russian populace, potentially exploitable in hybrid warfare contexts.
