Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 28, 2025, 21:26 UTC
I. Overall Situation & Command Focus
Combat Intensity: High intensity persists across the front line, with 157 combat clashes reported on March 28. Russian ground assault tempo remains significantly elevated compared to previous months. Primary Russian efforts are concentrated on the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Lyman, Kupyansk, and Kursk/Belgorod border axes.
Ukrainian Command Priorities (Stavka Meeting Mar 28):
Accelerating domestic development, production, and supply of various drone types (interceptor, reactive, fiber-optic) to maximize technological superiority. Successful intercepts of Shahed UAVs using interceptor drones were noted.
Accelerating domestic missile production and establishing local production facilities for SAM systems and missiles, including finalizing agreements for domestic AD system production licenses.
Personnel: Andriy Hnatov appointed Chief of the General Staff. Major General Serhiy Kryvonos appointed head of the Institute of Global Civil Security (Warsaw-based).
Equipment Needs: Frontline units continue to require technical support (charging stations, FPVs, comms, tablets, laptops), highlighting ongoing technological needs. Field maintenance of critical systems like Stinger MANPADS observed.
Alleged Intelligence Leak (RU Claim): Russian sources (Colonelcassad citing JokerDPR) claim acquisition of official Ukrainian civil defense exercise plans for Chernivtsi Oblast, detailing scenarios for mass missile strikes on energy infrastructure and alleged vulnerabilities. This requires verification and may be an information operation.
II. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Ongoing Russian Air Threats (Mar 28, Evening/Night - Developing):
Mass UAV Attack on Dnipro (Update): Significant attack involving approximately 20 Shahed-type UAVs targeted Dnipro city from multiple directions.
Confirmed Impacts & Casualties (Updated): Strikes resulted in a large fire destroying the landmark "Caravella" ship feature at the Bartolommeo Hotel-Restaurant Complex. Damage also confirmed to multi-story residential buildings and private homes. Preliminary reports indicate 1 civilian KIA and 6 WIA, including a pregnant woman and two individuals in critical condition (Dnipropetrovsk OVA). Russian sources claim the hotel housed foreign personnel. Anti-UAV operations were ongoing; RU sources reported >30 explosions and AD activity. Dashcam footage captured nearby detonations.
Kyiv Under Attack (New Event):
Air Alert Declared (21:04 UTC): Due to incoming Shahed UAV threat. At least 4 UAVs reported approaching the capital.
Air Defense Active: AD systems engaged hostile UAVs near and over Kyiv, particularly on the Left Bank (KMVA, Mayor Klitschko). Explosions reported (21:18 UTC). Citizens urged to remain in shelters.
Widespread UAV Activity: Numerous Russian UAV groups reported active across Poltava, Cherkasy, Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, and Zhytomyr Oblasts (as of 20:07 UTC), indicating a large-scale coordinated attack wave. Tracked groups moving towards Kremenchuk, Poltava, Mirhorod, Korosten, Brovary/Kyiv, Pryluky, Nizhyn (Mykolaivskyi Vanek, 20:45 UTC).
Guided Bomb (KAB) Launches: Russian tactical aviation launched KABs towards Donetsk Oblast and Sumy Oblast.
Previous Major Russian Attack (Night Mar 27/28): Attack involved 163 strike/imitator UAVs. Ukrainian Air Force confirmed downing 89 strike UAVs. Confirmed impacts on energy infrastructure ("Naftogaz" facilities) and civilian areas.
Confirmed Strike on Russian Territory (Mar 27): Ukrainian Air Force successfully struck the Pohar border crossing point (Bryansk Oblast, RU), destroying military infrastructure, communications, EW, and surveillance systems. Estimated 15-40 Russian personnel KIA. Strike stated as response to Russian terror attacks.
Strike in Luhansk (Occupied - Update): Reports from both Ukrainian and Russian sources confirm multiple explosions and fire in the Kam'yanyi Brid (Kambrоd) district of Luhansk city (approx. 20:30 - 20:58 UTC). Russian sources mention hearing UAVs and air defense activity preceding the incident.
Ongoing Operations: Counter-battery fire, reconnaissance, and FPV strikes by various units (Presidential Brigade, 3rd SSO, NGU "Kara-Dag", SSO "Faust") against Russian personnel and equipment, including near Dvorichna (Kupyansk area) and in Kursk Oblast. Confirmed FPV strike destroying Russian "Tuman" EW station near Zarichne (Lyman direction).
Reported HIMARS Strike: Russian sources claim Ukrainian HIMARS were used against the Sudzha Gas Installation (Kursk Oblast).
Air Defense: Ukrainian forces employ mobile AD systems (Strela-10, adapted R-73 missiles) and MANPADS (Stingers). Successful use of interceptor drones against Shaheds confirmed. AD actively engaged over Kyiv (ongoing).
14 combat clashes reported in the Kursk direction (Mar 28). Heavy fighting persists. Ukrainian presence assessed as deterring potential Russian invasion into Sumy Oblast.
Intense Russian air and artillery bombardment continues (22 air strikes/35 KABs, 288 arty bombardments reported Mar 28).
Demydovka & Popovka (Belgorod Oblast): Fierce battles ongoing. Russian forces claim incremental advances in Demydovka but face Ukrainian resistance. Russian claims suggest a Ukrainian focus shift towards Popovka. Fighting also reported near Grafovka and Prylesie.
Guyevo Area (Kursk Oblast): Russian forces conduct clearing operations in Guyevo and attack near Oleshnia. Russian sources claim attempts to achieve operational encirclement of Guyevo and released video allegedly showing destruction of a Ukrainian unit nearby.
Previous RU claims: Capture of Veselovka, clearing most of Basovka. New RU claim (Voenkor Kotenok, 20:44 UTC): Assault units liberated Veselovka, advanced between Vodolagi and Belovody (Sumy Oblast). Offensive actions claimed along Vladimirovka—Vodolagi—Veselovka—Zhuravka—Basovka line. Ukrainian forces reportedly reinforcing positions in Kursk Oblast.
Kharkiv Direction (Kupyansk Area):
Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian assaults near Vovchansk and Kamyanka, and 3 attempts near Zahryzove and towards Bohuslavka (Mar 28).
Significant tactical success reported Mar 27 near Lozova, where the 77th Airmobile Brigade repelled a large Russian mechanized assault (13 units), inflicting heavy losses (60 KIA, 28 WIA, 12 BBM, 1 Tank claimed).
Successful Ukrainian FPV strike confirmed on Russian armored vehicle near Dvorichna.
Lyman Direction: Assessed as CRITICAL. Intense Russian attacks persist.
Ukrainian forces repelled 16 Russian attacks near Nadiya, Yampolivka, and towards Hrekivka, Nove, Novomykhailivka, Zelena Dolyna (Mar 28). 9 clashes were ongoing as of 22:00 UTC (Previous Report).
Russian forces reportedly advanced near Terny. Terny remains largely Russian-occupied. Confirmed Ukrainian FPV strike destroyed Russian "Tuman" EW station near Zarichne.
Siversk Direction:1 Russian attack repelled near Ivano-Darivka (Mar 28).
Kramatorsk Direction:4 Russian attempts to advance near Chasiv Yar and towards Bila Hora, Predtechyne were repelled (Mar 28). Fighting ongoing near Chasiv Yar.
Toretsk Direction:HIGH INTENSITY.
Ukrainian forces repelled 20 Russian attempts to penetrate defenses near Toretsk and towards Dyliivka, Shcherbynivka (Mar 28). 2 clashes were ongoing as of 22:00 UTC (Previous Report).
Pokrovsk Direction:HIGHEST INTENSITY and primary Russian offensive focus.
Ukrainian forces faced 72 Russian assault and offensive actions across numerous settlements (Panteleimonivka, Oleksandropil, Tarasivka, etc.) and towards Kalynove (Mar 28). 9 clashes were ongoing as of 22:00 UTC (Previous Report).
The situation remains extremely difficult; Russian forces continue attempts to advance using small infantry groups. NGU "Kara-Dag" captured Russian POWs during failed assaults.
Velyka Novosilka / Vuhledar / Novopavlivsk Area:
Ukrainian forces repelled 15 Russian attacks near Kostiantynopil, Rozlyv, Dniproenerhiya (Mar 28). Evidence of recent heavy combat and Russian tank losses. Two damaged/disabled Ukrainian M113 APCs observed in an impact crater, likely abandoned due to FPV threat.
Huliaipole Direction:
Ukrainian forces repelled 4 Russian assaults near Pryvilne (Mar 28). Russian airstrikes reported on Novopil, Novodarivka, Huliaipole, Zaliznychne.
Zaporizhzhia Direction (Orikhiv Area):
Ukrainian forces repelled 8 Russian attacks attempting to advance towards Shcherbaky, Mali Shcherbaky, Mala Tokmachka, Stepove, Kamyanske, and north of Nesteryanka (Mar 28). Russian airstrikes hit Kamyanske, Novoandriivka.
Russian Claim: Units of 7th Guards Air Assault Division captured Malye Shcherbaky (RU MoD, Mar 28).
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson):2 combat clashes reported (Mar 28). Positional fighting continues. Russian airstrike reported on Kozatske.
Commended Ukrainian Units (Mar 28): 31st Mech Bde, 32nd Arty Bde, 1st Tank Bde, 82nd Air Assault Bde, 80th Air Assault Bde cited for repelling attacks and inflicting significant losses.
IV. Other Military-Relevant Developments
Swedish Torpedo Integration: Swedish Defence Materiel Administration successfully tested Torpedo 47 launch from a CB90 craft. Saab demonstrated potential USV integration. This could enhance capabilities of Ukrainian CB90s (30+ transferred) in the Black Sea.
International Relations:
Canada-Russia (Arctic): Canadian PM stated Canada does not intend to cooperate with Russia in the Arctic.
US-Greenland: US VP stated no current need to increase US troop presence in Greenland but affirmed commitment to its security.
