Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 28, 2025, 18:56 UTC
I. Strategic Developments
Ukrainian Command & Capabilities:
Stavka Meeting (Mar 28): Prioritized accelerating domestic development and production of various drone types (interceptor, reactive, fiber-optic), increasing supply, and maximizing technological superiority. Successful intercepts of Shahed UAVs using interceptor drones were noted.
Domestic Production Focus: Emphasis on accelerating domestic missile production and establishing Ukrainian production facilities for Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) systems and associated missiles. Negotiations with partners continue for localizing production of specific Air Defense (AD) systems/missiles. Confirmed agreements for domestic production licenses for AD systems; work ongoing for artillery production licenses.
Intelligence & Resources: Confirmed expanded access to partner intelligence data, including satellite imagery, and ammunition stockpiles.
Personnel: Andriy Hnatov officially appointed Chief of the General Staff and Stavka member. Specialized deputy ministers and aviation-focused leaders appointed to enhance relevant capabilities.
Arms Export Potential: Discussion highlighted Ukraine's potential annual arms production capacity ($35bn) exceeding current state funding ($14bn), suggesting controlled exports could generate revenue (est. $2bn+/year) and sustain production lines without negatively impacting domestic supply (Operatyvnyi ZSU/Sternenko).
International Cooperation & Aid:
Meetings:
Urgent meeting confirmed in Kyiv within the week involving representatives from the general staffs of France, UK, Ukraine, and potentially other core nations prepared to consider deploying a contingent force (Zelenskyy).
Next Ramstein format meeting scheduled for April 2025, to be led by Germany and UK, with expectations of new defense packages (Zelenskyy via RU source).
US Aid & Relations:
President Zelensky explicitly stated Ukraine will not accept past US military aid as debt (ASTRA).
A new US draft agreement, reportedly concerning critical mineral resources, was received on Mar 28, described as significantly different from previous versions and requiring legal review (Zelenskyy via ASTRA). Bloomberg previously reported US seeking control over infrastructure projects and profit-sharing via a US-controlled reconstruction fund.
President Zelensky indicated the US conveyed future aid will not be provided free of charge, though repayment terms might be considered for future packages. Politico (via RU source) previously suggested a potential $120bn debt obligation with 4% annual interest on delayed payments.
European Troop Deployment: Reports suggest European nations reconsidering troop deployments due to constraints. Ukraine reportedly indicated a need for substantial, combat-ready forces (attributed to Ihor Zhovkva by RU source).
Abducted Children Program: US State Department denied reports of renewed funding for a program tracking Ukrainian children abducted by Russia; data secured and transferable (DeepState).
Diplomacy & Negotiations:
Ceasefire Concepts: US consultations ongoing with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, European nations regarding potential monitoring mechanisms for an "energy ceasefire." Previous discussions on a temporary ceasefire by Apr 20 deemed unrealistic without US pressure on Russia (Podolyak). Russian commentary suggests the "energy truce" attempt has concluded (Starshe Eddy).
Negotiation Stance: President Zelensky reiterated openness to negotiating peace terms with representatives of Russian business and opposition figures, rather than directly with President Putin (RVvoenkor/ASTRA). Zelenskyy framed Putin's avoidance of direct talks and questioning of legitimacy as pretexts to prolong the war (RBC-Ukraine).
UN Position: UN Secretary-General Guterres explicitly rejected recent Russian proposals for a UN temporary administration in Ukraine, affirming recognition of the current Ukrainian government.
Russia-US-Turkey: Putin-Erdogan call discussed Ukraine, with Turkey offering mediation; Russia informed Turkey of alleged UA attacks on energy infrastructure. Russia reportedly demands Rosselkhozbank reconnection to SWIFT as a condition for a Black Sea truce, framed as a test of Trump's influence on EU sanctions (Bloomberg via Oper Z/RVvoenkor).
Russian Focus & Narrative:
Formally accused UK/France of involvement in the Sudzha Gas Installation strike.
Significant internal efforts (political parties, volunteer groups, religious orgs) observed collecting funds and delivering equipment (vehicles, drones, EW) to forces in Ukraine, including RCB troops in Kursk Oblast. Suggestion floated to send confiscated e-bikes/scooters to the front (Dva Mayora).
Claims return of 25 Russian civilians (allegedly forcibly evacuated by UA from Kursk Oblast) via agreement; total claimed returned since Nov 2024: 104; over 70 allegedly remain (Rybar). Claims exchange of bodies: 43 RU returned, 909 UA received (Note: UA figure unusually high) (Dnevnik Desantnika). Posts related to military funerals observed (Kotsnews).
Information Operations & Internal Issues:
RU sources disseminated alleged internal UA documents claiming deficiencies in "Novator" armored vehicles (potential info op).
RU sources exploit POW interviews (e.g., claiming coercion/drug use among UA troops). Ukrainian sources release interviews of RU POWs claiming low morale, high losses, and coercion (e.g., 36th MRB soldier captured near Pokrovsk).
Allegations of Ukrainian PsyOps attempting to falsely attribute war crimes to Russia in Sudzha.
RU source (Alex Parker) claims Ukraine holds a "gigantic advantage" in FPV drones, citing poor quality of RU MoD-supplied drones and insufficient volunteer production volumes.
Reports and claims regarding paid schemes to avoid mobilization (TCC) in Ukraine; police investigate incident near Holosiivskyi TCC involving "military lawyers" van (obstruction, forgery) (Basurin/RBC-Ukraine).
II. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Ongoing Russian Air Threats (Mar 28, evening):
Active UAV threat warnings for Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Chernihiv, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblasts (UA Air Force).
UAV groups reported moving from Sumy/Kharkiv border towards Poltava Oblast, and from central Sumy towards Chernihiv Oblast (UA Air Force).
Launches of Russian KABs reported towards Sumy Oblast (UA Air Force, 18:55 UTC).
Persistent reconnaissance UAV activity over Kharkiv Oblast.
Continued artillery and drone attacks on rear areas: Nikopol district (2 men injured Mar 28), Zelenodolsk community (infra damage Mar 28) in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Vilkul).
Major Russian Attack (Night Mar 27/28):
Attack involved 163 strike UAVs (Shahed type) and imitator drones. UA Air Force confirmed 89 strike UAVs shot down; 51 imitator drones "locationally lost."
Confirmed impacts on energy infrastructure ("Naftogaz" gas production facilities) and civilian areas.
Kyiv Update (Past Week, per KMVA): 7 air alarms. 98 strike UAVs detected near/over Kyiv; 48 destroyed. Mar 23 attack caused infrastructure/residential damage, 3 civilians KIA, 10 WIA.
Claimed Russian Strikes (Verification Required):
RU MoD/Sources: Strikes reported in Poltava and Odesa (Mar 28). Drone strike destroyed dugout in Kharkiv region. Geran UAV strikes on alleged UAV workshop in Bohodukhiv (Kharkiv Oblast). MLRS strikes (BM-21 Grad) near Otradne. FPV drone strikes (personnel/hardware) in Pokrovsk direction and along Kursk border. "Rubicon" unit strikes (Kursk direction). "Anvar" unit strikes in Kursk Oblast (Guevo - PVD/infantry) and Sumy Oblast (Naumovka - Bohdana SAU/comms node) (Colonelcassad). RU MoD video: Tank crews + Strela-10 AD cover in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction.
Ukrainian Air/Drone Operations:
Confirmed Strike (Mar 27): UA Air Force successfully struck the Pohar border crossing point (Bryansk Oblast, RU), destroying military infrastructure, communications, EW, surveillance systems. Estimated 15-40 Russian personnel KIA. Stated as response to Russian terror attacks; Pohar reportedly used for RU UAV launches (UGS).
Ongoing counter-battery fire, reconnaissance, and strikes.
Successful FPV strike confirmed on RU armored vehicle near Dvorichna (Kupyansk area).
FPV strikes reported by Presidential Brigade (Svatove direction), 3rd SSO Regiment. Drone support by "Pryvyd Khortytsi" Bn for NGU "Kara-Dag" infantry (Donetsk). SSO "Faust" claims significant RU equipment losses via FPV in Kursk Oblast (Mar 26).
HIMARS Strike: Russian sources claim UA used HIMARS against Sudzha Gas Installation (Kursk Oblast).
F-16: UA Air Force highlighted pilot interview claiming high missile hit rates (>80%); released images with AMRAAM/Sidewinder missiles (Mar 26).
Air Defense:
RU MoD claims Pantsir-S destroyed UA attack UAV in Zaporizhzhia direction. RU source claims shooting down UA Mavic drone over RU positions (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
Ukrainian forces (3rd Assault Bde) observed employing mobile systems including Strela-10 and adapted R-73 air-to-air missiles on vehicles.
International Dimensions:
Trump acknowledges reports of Iranian drones used by Russia against Ukraine, states reports are being studied (Grunt/RBC).
III. Ground Combat Operations
Overall Intensity: Remains high. Russian ground assault tempo increased, reportedly exceeding 200 assaults/day recently (+17% Mar vs Feb average), the highest rate since start of 2025 (DeepState/ASTRA). Primary axes: Pokrovsk, Lyman, Kupyansk, Toretsk, and Kursk/Belgorod border.
Kursk/Belgorod Border Operations (RU Territory):
Fighting continues. Ukrainian presence assessed as deterring potential RU invasion into Sumy Oblast (Zelenskyy).
RU forces reportedly conduct clearing operations in Guyevo and attack near Oleshnia (Rybar). Previous claims of capturing Veselovka and clearing most of Basovka.
Kharkiv Direction (Kupyansk Area):
Significant Tactical Event (Mar 27, near Lozova): UA 77th Airmobile Brigade repelled a large, pre-planned Russian mechanized assault (13 armored units), inflicting heavy losses (60 KIA, 28 WIA, 12 BBM, 1 Tank claimed). Frontline reportedly stable.
Russian claim persists for capture of Krasne Pervoe (Pershotravneve). UA FPV strike confirmed on RU armored vehicle near Dvorichna.
RU reportedly advanced near Pischane (DeepState, Mar 26).
Lyman Direction: Assessed as CRITICAL. Intense RU attacks persist. Terny remains largely Russian-occupied. RU forces reportedly advanced near Terny (DeepState, Mar 26/28).
Svatove Direction: UA Presidential Brigade active with FPV drones. RU forces reportedly advanced near Katerynivka (DeepState, Mar 26).
Siversk Direction: RU attacks repelled near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, Ivano-Darivka (UGS, Mar 26).
Kramatorsk Direction: Ongoing fighting near Chasiv Yar.
Toretsk Direction:HIGH INTENSITY. Significant RU attacks continue. RU forces reportedly fighting within Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk) city limits, near Panteleimonivka, and west near Tarasivka (Rybar).
Situation remains extremely difficult, with RU advancing in small infantry groups (Sternenko, Mar 26).
RU MoD confirmed offensive use of UR-77 mine clearing system against a UA stronghold, claiming subsequent capture. RU sources claim advances from Sribne towards Bohdanivka (Dnevnik Desantnika).
NGU "Kara-Dag" (15 Bde) captured RU POWs during failed RU assaults (early March). Captured soldier from RU 36th MRB reports low morale, coercion, high losses (Butusov Plus).
Velyka Novosilka / Vuhledar / Novopavlivsk Area:
RU attacks repelled (UGS, Mar 26). Evidence of recent heavy combat and RU tank losses reported.
RU sources claim advances near Razliv, consolidation in eastern Volne Pole (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Huliaipole Direction: RU assaults repelled (UGS, Mar 26).
Russian Claim: Units of 7th Guards Air Assault Division captured Malye Shcherbaky (RU MoD, Mar 28).
RU forces reportedly advanced near Dniproenerhiya area (likely Enerhodar/ZNPP) (DeepState, Mar 26).
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): Positional fighting reported. One RU attack stopped (UGS, Mar 26). UA drone strikes claimed preventing RU river crossing attempt (Mar 26).
